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Jameer Nelson Sparks the Orlando Magic's Second-Half Success

The Orlando Magic have won eight straight games, their longest streak since the 2005/06 season and the longest active streak in the NBA. And no team has played better ball than the Magic over the last month, with Orlando drilling its opponents by an average of 14.5 points over that stretch. Each player deserves a share of the credit, as does the coaching staff. But to me, one player in particular has keyed the Magic's improvement since the break: point guard Jameer Nelson.

Here's a look at how his numbers have improved, UPDATE with his stats from last season added for comparison:

Jameer Nelson pre- and post-All-Star break splits, 2009/10 NBA Season
PtsAstTOPPRTS%
Pre11.64.82.14.152.3%
Post15.17.12.28.759.3%
2008/09 Season16.75.42.05.261.2%

The break helped Nelson recharge his batteries, so to speak, and it's paying off with better percentages from the floor. More impressively, he's turned into an assist machine relative to his usual abilities. Prior to this season, Nelson split ballhandling duties with Hedo Turkoglu in Stan Van Gundy's offense, which robbed him of some assist opportunities. For most of his pre-Van Gundy career, he was regarded as a point guard with a shoot-first mentality and without great floor vision; the 1.5 Pure Point Rating he posted in his first full year as a starter did little to inspire confidence in his ability to run an offense. With Turkoglu in Toronto and Vince Carter not assuming that same playmaking role, Nelson's doing a little more than he used to, and proving to be one of the best pick-and-roll players in the game: data from Synergy Sports show Nelson produces 1.04 points per possession in all pick-and-roll situations, which puts him in the league's 86th percentile.

Star-divide

It makes sense that he'd get plenty of assists with this particular team, given that he has 3 three-point shooters beyond the arc or the league's best center in the paint awaiting a pass at any time. But it might be a mistake to assume that just anyone could post these sorts of numbers. Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams are the only players to best Nelson's post-break Pure Point Rating over the entire season, while Paul and Nash are the only ones to combine a better Pure Point Rating with more efficient shooting. When Eddy and I write that Nelson's played like an All-Star lately, we mean it. He's getting it done, and that his rise has mirrored the Magic's is no coincidence.

Kelly Dwyer's called Nelson "the most important non-star in the NBA," and with good reason. With Nelson producing the way he has of late, Orlando's taken its offense into another gear, with over 118 points scored per 100 possessions since the break. That offensive potency, combined with the Magic's elite defense, will make Orlando exceptionally dangerous in the postseason. And it all starts with Nelson, the man running the show.

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Excellent analysis to confirm what we have all known for a while now.

Jameer is the key to our success. When he is playing well we are nearly impossible to defend.

by MagicMark on Mar 14, 2010 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

He will be the important factor, besides Dwight, in the ECF and potentially the finals.

When he is moving the ball and the offense is really moving, the whole team does well. But, when the offense is stagnant, that’s when they get into trouble. He is going to be great in the playoffs, because he has that memory of the last year burned into his memory.

by GoMagicGo on Mar 14, 2010 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

I love it.

That is all.

I hate Varejao.

by slickw143 on Mar 14, 2010 12:54 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

me 2, keep rolling Meer.

FEED THE BEAST!!!
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Mar 14, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's just start the playoffs next week

Chicago is not making the playoffs when their whole team is injured. We’re just biding our time until then. We have the goods, we know we have the goods. There are some other teams out there that could be stumbling blocks, but the next month is going to take forever. Thankfully, March Madness will provide a break from the doldrums.

by CaneGrad05 on Mar 14, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd like to see these numbers

Compared to Jameer’s 2008-2009 numbers prior to his injury. Also would like to see the Turk numbers pre and prior to the injury.

by CaneGrad05 on Mar 14, 2010 4:19 PM EDT reply actions  

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