Ryan Anderson's Slump vs. Bass: A Shooting Efficiency Comparison

by 3.3seconds on Mar 10, 2010 4:31 AM EST

It's no secret: in recent weeks, Ryan Anderson has shot extremely poorly from the field. This has opened up some playing time for Brandon Bass, who had looked largely disappointing in the early season. The theory is that, while Anderson is by a wide margin the stronger rebounder, and Bass has generally been seen as a greater liability on defense, his higher accuracy from the field might make up for those issues. But how do the statistics look?

First, Anderson. After going 3-6 today, Anderson has shot 14-46 (30.4%) since the beginning of February, and 5-21 (23.8%) from beyond the arc. He's 8-8 on free throws -- two of those 8 FTs came on and-ones. So Anderson's shooting has used up 49 possessions, and those possessions have yielded 41 points. Not great!

Bass, then: after going 4-7 today, he's 18-40 from the field (45%) in the same span. He's 9-10 in free throws (no and-ones), and thankfully, he hasn't shot any threes. So... 45 possessions used, 45 points. That's... slightly better than Anderson, but not game-breakingly so.

The fact is, Anderson and Bass are both inefficient from the field at this point, but Anderson has a clear path to drastic improvement. Bass is more or less doing what he's expected to do. And yet the difference between the two, even in the depths of Anderson's slump, is only 4 possessions + 4 points... Anderson doesn't need to play the way he did in November to be more efficient than Bass from the field. Just a slight improvement/recovery (or, depending on how you look at it, a couple lucky bounces) would put him over the top. That's the difference three-point range makes.

Two more statistics: first of all, Anderson has 5 assists in the surveyed time period. Bass' last assist came on January 13 vs. Denver. Admittedly, Anderson has more turnovers as well, but the impression that Bass rarely passes appears to be reflected in the stats...

...which brings me to the last point. Bass took his 40+5 shots in 109 minutes of total play -- that means that Bass attempted a shot/a pair of free throws every 2:25. Whereas Anderson took his 46+3 in 123 minutes: every 2:30. These are troublingly high usage rates for two bench guys who have been among our least effective players on offense. (Though Anderson at least has his efficiency earlier in the year as an excuse.)

And it points at another question: is the battle between Anderson and Bass for the rotation spot causing both of these players to hog the ball, so as to make a case for more playing time?

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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I don't necessarily think it's a case of either one hogging the ball

Both tend to play with more of the second unit, which doesn’t consist of many shooters. Without checking whether FTs are pairs or and-one, I can only do rough numbers, but Redick’s down to about 1 shot every 3 minutes, Pietrus is 1 shot every 3.2 minutes, Williams is about 1 shot per 4 minutes, and Gortat averages about 1 shot per 4.5 minutes. Combine all four of those players together, and you get about 1 shot per minute, which is low.

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by The Dark on Mar 10, 2010 10:53 AM EST reply actions

I just really don't think we need both,

and would prefer if Otis takes a strong look at the PF (yeah, Shard included) position this summer.

by fwedo on Mar 10, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

(sorry not mean to be a response to your post)

by fwedo on Mar 10, 2010 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I do think they're both forcing things a bit.

Remember against Miami two weeks ago when Bass came in and jacked 4 shots in his first 4 minutes? He’s settled down since then, sure, but probably because he knows he’s in the rotation.

Anderson last night? Sad to watch because he was so clearly looking for his own shot first. 2 of his 3 FGs were tip-ins on teammates’ misses, which is fantastic because it shows he’s active and staying with plays. On the downside, he also took 2 long two-pointers, which is uncharacteristic of him. Counting those attempts, he’s now tried just 20 long two-pointers during the entire season, and 46 in his career. That’s not a shot he normally takes, or should take.

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by Evan Dunlap on Mar 10, 2010 3:37 PM EST reply actions

Good Topic

I agree, I think both players are trying to show value, and steal minutes. Easy way to show up on the stat sheet is to score.

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by Wmillion on Mar 10, 2010 8:49 PM EST reply actions

Honestly, at this point...

…my main problem with Bass at this point is his atrocious rebounding. He’s averaging a defensive rebound every 11 minutes — those are unimpressive numbers for a guard, let alone an alleged inside PF. Anderson isn’t a great rebounder himself, but he averages almost twice as many defensive rebounds per minute as Bass.

They’re around even in terms of offensive efficiency at the moment, but Anderson’s ceiling as a scorer is obviously much higher — he can really be an efficient scorer when his shot is falling. Short of shooting 55-60%, I don’t see what Bass can do to be more than a moderately effective scorer…. he’s shooting 45% now, and he’s still bad.

His inability to create for his teammates also worries me… Bass is almost never the guy you want shooting the ball, and yet it’s been two months since his last assist. Even if he WAS the guy you wanted shooting, that’s insane to me.

Defense is subjective — Bass makes defensive mistakes, but it’s not like Anderson’s a great defender either.

So ultimately, the three major indisputable differences between the two players are defensive rebounding, offensive potential and passing. Anderson has advantages in all three.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 10, 2010 9:53 PM EST reply actions 4 recs

I agree with this, entirely.

Gold star.

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"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 10, 2010 10:45 PM EST up reply actions

Of course you agree with this entirely

Which is the same reason you threatened to ban me from this forum; for me expressing my point of view and my preference of Bass OVER Anderson. Alot of you guys at this site are Anderson apologists, and especially after last nights game against the Bulls, Bass is forever stating his case as to why he is now deservedly the back up PF ahead of RA.

The best part is, the only guys opinion that matters (Stan) is seeing this for what it is, regardless of how he hides it in press conferences: Bass needs to be our back up PF for the playoff run. He saw it last year with rookie Courtney Lee over Pietrus, and this year with Bass over RA.

Also, erivera7, might be time to change up the signature! 2nd team no so full of white guys anymore!

I will most likely get banned now for this post, as you cannot like Bass over RA around here apparently.

Go Magic!!!

by gatorboi352 on Mar 12, 2010 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

I was the one who warned you to clean up your language. It had nothing to do with your opinion.

If you want to discuss that warning with me, you’re welcome to do so via email.

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by Evan Dunlap on Mar 12, 2010 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Hey no worries. We all have our opinions,of course they're not the same.

But, you come across in a rude and kind of in your face way. We are all Magic fans when it comes down to it and we should all be as respectful to each other as possible. I can understand your POV about Bass over Anderson but you could be a lot nicer in your presentation of your argument. The editors here are extremely nice and basically let us say what we want, as long as we check ourselves and don’t get out of hand. If you got a warning, I can guarantee it wasn’t because of your opinions. I have said some pretty outlandish things and have never gotten a warning. All I’m saying is try to be a little nicer and keep it clean and there will be no worries!

by GoMagicGo on Mar 12, 2010 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

**

I like the strong opinions, but I agree with GoMagicGo, you can come across a little in your face. You have to remember we all want the same thing, W’s for the Magic.

Personally, I am glad you have a different point of view, makes for great discussion.

I agree with you continue to play Bass, we are winning streak, if ain’t broke don’t fix it.

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by Wmillion on Mar 12, 2010 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

You take the Anderson/Bass debate way too seriously.

At the end of the day, both are good players that can help the Magic win. I’ve said this before but too many times people are so adamant about being right, that they’ll ignore all the empirical evidence out there just because they don’t want to be proven wrong. I have my opinion on Anderson and Bass but at the same time, I’m also of the opinion that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I’ve also been more than complementary for Bass lately, citing his improvements on defense. But of course, ignore that because you’ll be able to paint me as an “Anderson apologist” then. I got one word for that: fickle.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Mar 12, 2010 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

Eh.

Let’s see him grab a defensive rebound. Or maybe make an assist. You know, just once.

And let’s see you do something other than post a deliberately confrontational screed about how you like Bass and don’t like Anderson. At least Bass is TRYING to contribute something.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 12, 2010 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

6 game winning streak is enough for me.

Why don’t you want a guy who makes more than he misses shooting the ball?

One of the things I try to look at all the time is I want to see all those numbers, I’m talking about team numbers, how they correlate to winning, so I’m looking at stats.

SVG, I agree with this. Stat say we are winning with Bass getting minutes.

I think there are some guys that don’t think it’s worth a darn at all and then there’s a lot of people in between who want to see the numbers but don’t think they’re the whole picture, either, so I think there’s all across the spectrum.

Love this quote!! Love it.. I think there needs to be a median, basing all of your decisions on stats alone I think is inaccurate.

I think RA is better, but he isn’t head and shoulders better.

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by Wmillion on Mar 10, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions

Cause and effect?

Stat say we are winning with Bass getting minutes.

But one is not necessarily leading to the other. Lots of wins with Bass getting DNP-CD. See?

"I've had people say, 'I don't need to check the [player statistics]. I've seen it with my eyes.' Well, I would also say your eyes lie to you sometimes, and some of the guys you may really like and think are really doing things, when you get deeper into it, aren't or vice versa." ~Stan Van Gundy

by magicfaninTN on Mar 10, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

Because he's making (or missing) inefficient shots.

He doesn’t shoot the 3, he doesn’t draw fouls, and he doesn’t get better baskets for his teammates. In fact, he kind of has to be worked around, because you can’t pass the ball to him and expect to get it back. You put those things together, and you’ve got a guy who’s not a great offensive piece, even if he can keep the 50% shooting up.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 11, 2010 1:10 AM EST up reply actions

I don’t see what Bass can do to be more than a moderately effective scorer…. he’s shooting 45% now, and he’s still bad.

I show Bass at 50.6%

offensive potential is debatable and subjective

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by Wmillion on Mar 10, 2010 11:00 PM EST up reply actions

45% since the beginning of February.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 11, 2010 1:06 AM EST up reply actions

And I wouldn't call "offensive potential", as I defined it, "debatable" or "subjective".

Ryan Anderson, October-January of this season: 276 FGA, 65 FTA (= at most 32 possessions used by FTs, and probably a couple less). High estimate of 308 possessions used, 349 points.

Again, given that Bass doesn’t shoot threes, the only way he could reach this kind of efficiency would be to shoot over 55% (unlikely), or to stay over 50% from the field while shooting way more free throws than he currently does.

And given that Anderson maintained that efficiency for half a season, I’m inclined to regard it as a thing he is capable of doing, rather than a fluke.

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 11, 2010 1:21 AM EST up reply actions

I think RA is better, but he isn’t head and shoulders better.

I think they are both above average bench players. That’s it. RA has a higher ceiling, but that potential will go untapped for years.

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by Wmillion on Mar 11, 2010 12:48 PM EST up reply actions

regarding RA's FG average

if you remove his 3 pointers, he’s 9 of 25 which is 36% that’s still horrible but you did mention he had 2 and-one’s. I suppose it bears repeating by the coaching staff that RA needs to be more aggressive in the post and driving it. I suppose “February RA” has a lot in common with “January VC” in terms of shooting slumps

by RL Magic on Mar 10, 2010 10:47 PM EST reply actions

RA is a great player, no doubt about it.

I think he is having a confidence problem tho. When he gets burn, he goes out and misses his first shot, then he loses all confidence in himself and can’t hit a shot to save his life. He really needs to work on his confidence in shot selection and his ability to make baskets. Even JJ STILL has this problem sometimes, although he has gotten better. I honestly think RA has the ability to become a great player, I’m talking all-star caliber. He really just needs to develop more, I mean he is only 21! He just has to overcome his own issues, and then he will bust out all his awesomeness, lol.

by GoMagicGo on Mar 11, 2010 1:01 AM EST reply actions

If you're right, and his problem is confidence --

— is playing Bass over him helping?

Personally, I think it’s largely a sample size issue — he’s attempted under 50 shots during this “slump”. That’s 3-4 games for a starter. You don’t start worrying when Vince has three bad games in a row, do you? (You start worrying when it’s more than 3, sure… Vince attempted 141 shots in January.)

But there’s something to be said for the notion that nerves/Ryan feeling that he has to prove himself out there… I know many people have credited Jameer’s secure starting role with his emergence as an All-Star last year. If that’s the case, though, wouldn’t it be helpful to tell Ryan, “all right, you have the job”?

Bass is a kind of fish.

by 3.3seconds on Mar 11, 2010 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Oh yea, completely.

Right now, everytime he goes out there (Just like B. Bass used to do) he wants to play like he’ll never get another minute to play again. I wouldn’t necessarily say that either one of them is a ballhog, but when they get out there they’re looking for their own self first, just to get stats or to try and prove that they should be in the line-up. It’s really not fair for either of them. One of them should be traded in the off-season. I’m pretty sure it will be Bass.

At least when a player is 3rd string, so to say, they know that they will be getting all the garbage minutes (a la AJ). Bass and RA are not 3rd string players and they don’t know whether they will be playing from night to night. I just hope they find a way to work RA back into the line-up because he is a great player, he just has to develop his game.

by GoMagicGo on Mar 11, 2010 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

This I agree with..

Has to be tough for RA or Bass, knowing you are above average NBA player, but fighting to be the 3rd or 4th guy off the bench.

The guys that play well off the bench are usually the 6th man in the rotation and usually average 30+ minutes a game.

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by Wmillion on Mar 11, 2010 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Poor Ryan

I also believe that he should be eating up Bass’ minutes, but with the team winning, I see why SVG would elect not to change his line up.

As posters have said before, we’ve seen how good Ryan can be, let’s see how good Bass can be with extended playing time. Maybe he’ll suddenly develop a strong rebounding tenacity. Maybe not, but now’s the time to try.

When the big fella was whistled for his fourth personal foul midway through the third quarter, Stan Van Gundy left Clark Kent alone. And in a phone booth measuring 94 feet across, Dwight Howard used that vote of confidence to transform into his alter ego. - Chris Sheridan

by thermodynamic on Mar 13, 2010 1:59 PM EST reply actions