Jamison to Cavs: How does this affect the Magic?
The Cavaliers have traded Ilgauskas' expiring contract for Antawn Jamison. On paper, this move has to make them more dangerous -- they get a legitimate no. 2 scorer to pair with LeBron James, and they've given up almost nothing to acquire him. But how does the deal work in detail? And how does it affect the way they stack up against Orlando?
First of all, this is great news for Cleveland's offense. Jamison is one of the top post scorers in the league -- a guy who can usually maneuver his way into a good shot with or without the ball. Unfortunately, none of our defensive PFs really have the ability to contain a player like Jamison all that well... Rashard is a decent defender, but not a dominant one, and the post is not his best area. So Howard may need to keep one eye on Jamison and another on his man. (And a third on LeBron.)
On the bright side, Jamison also spends a lot of time on the perimeter... he's a good perimeter scorer, but this fact may allow the Magic to reduce the amount of post pounding our PFs take, and give them the chance to run out and use their speed. With their slow-paced game and lack of frontcourt speed, the Cavs are potentially vulnerable in transition.
It's also not entirely clear how Jamison's post offense works in the context of Shaq. The more the big man clogs the lane, the less room Jamison has to maneuver. (Alternately: the threat of Shaq down low gives Jamison one more option -- passing in the post -- and ensures that the Magic can't double-team either. This could go either way, and will most likely go a little of both.)
Defense, though, may be a problem for the Cavs. They may get Ilgauskas back if Washington waives him, but right now, their big man rotation consists of Shaq, Jamison, Varejao and Hickson. Of the four, only Shaq is a natural center, and he can only play 25 minutes or so. (He may be able to increase that number in the finals, but still, I can't see Shaq managing more than 28-30 MPG.)
Where does that leave the Cavs during the rest of the time? Well, neither Hickson nor Jamison is a viable center. So we'll probably see Varejao guarding the center position a lot. This is a potentially exploitable matchup -- Varejao is of course the focal point of their interior defense, but he's too small to match up with Dwight, and will have to rely on flopping to draw offensive fouls. If that doesn't work, he may pick up fouls himself, which compounds the Magic's problems. Meanwhile, shifting Varejao to the 5 leaves Jamison (or Hickson) at the 4, which is a downgrade. So Rashard and Ryan may be able to step up on offense. (Though of course LeBron is a threat to them as well.)
The only other lineup possibility to discuss is that the Cavs might try playing Jamison at the 3. He's too slow to defend that position at this point, but SF is not a major offensive position for the Magic. If they do attempt this, it's up to Pietrus and Barnes to use their athletic gifts against him.
Ultimately, this trade undoubtedly makes the Cavs the front-runners for the title, at least for now. Jamison isn't a perfect player, but he's definitely the best teammate LeBron has ever had. But that doesn't mean they're a lock for the title. It seems unlikely that a veteran like Jamison would create any chemistry problems in the locker room, but a trade like this always raises the risk of on-court miscommunication, as they're now working with a player who has not played in their system before. The Magic need to keep an eye on the Cavs, and if Jamison isn't rotating properly within the team's schemes, they need to exploit that.
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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Trade's Ahoy:
Jamison To Cavs, Thornton to Wiz, 5 foot 9 3 time dunk champion on verge of going to boston, Salmons to Bucks.
Official head of the Eric Berry bandship while it grows and grows and grows.
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Salmons is going?
But then who will we trade for Vince?
by eltharion_doa on Feb 17, 2010 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I got a post tomorrow lined up, deciphering how Jamison to the Cavaliers affects the Magic.
Just a heads up for anyone that cares.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
nice signature bro lol
"VC does NOT deserve to be winning with Orlando while Courtney Lee is a "loser" with NJ" -Magic12ball
by magic12ball on Feb 18, 2010 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Probably better than mine, too...
…I just sort of threw some stuff together. :)
It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...
You're too kind.
I like reading your comments and posts. They’re usually educated and well-reasoned.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I wouldn't be too concerned
The dominant advantage that the Magic had last year over the Cavs has dwindled away to almost nothing. this is not due to Jamison, but other moves the Cavs have made. Shaq has been a big fat ass addition, both literally and figuritively. Jamison on the other hand, seems better on paper than he is going to be for real. The problem with Jamison is 2 fold, efficiency and defense/intangibles.
This is an issue when a player moves from a bad team to a contending team. This is the same issue that has shown Richard Jefferson to be a horrible addition to the Spurs or Vince Carter being a bad addition to the Magic. The problem is that on a bad team, by definition you are not that efficient and it doesn’t matter since there are not too many other options. On a contending team, the most important factor for an addition is EFFICIENCY and the second is DEFENSE.
Efficiency wise, Jamison is a dud. He has a TS% of 53.8% which is not every efficient at all. Compare this to Rashard Lewis who is having an “off” year, and is still coming in with a TS% of 57%. Very respectable for a similar player. Jamison is going to go to the Cavs where shots are already spoken for. Varajoa/hickson both have an efficiency rating (TS%) of 58%. They get those with easy shots, put backs, but the efficiency is still there. You have Mo Williams with a TS% of 58% or Lebron out of this world at 61%. Who is exactly Jamison going to take shots AWAY from? On a bad team he takes shots away from BAD players, but on a contending team he is taking shots away from more efficient players.
Next we move on to defense/intagibles. On a contending team, the 2nd most important thing for an addition/role player is defense. Jamison is an absolutely horrible defender. Even his adjusted +- is not too good at +3.9 points.
Basically, it is great to get a player for nothing, but that player better fit your system and be a positive. I don’t think Jamison is going to be a big positive. He reminds me of the Richard Jefferson deal or the Vince Carter to the Magic deal. An inefficient offensive player who plays no defense going to a contending team. Once he gets there, it is obvious that this trade only looked good on paper.
But that's the rating Jamison is posting on the Wizards.
I don’t think he’s an inherently inefficient player… it’s just that he’s the Wizards’ only player who even resembles a post threat, which means he’s rarely if ever open, the opposing center can pretty much double-team him at will (Haywood was going to make them pay?), and then he’s been forced to anchor the offense. I feel like, if you move a 54% efficiency guy to a team where he’s the no. 2 option (and he’s next to the biggest scoring threat in the league), he could reach 58% no problem. And like LeBron (and unlike the Cavs’ current big men), he generates that offense himself (or with the assistance of a passer), not on putbacks.
Now, in the long run, who knows? For that matter, he could actually have declined now. But the more options you have out there on offense, the more efficient EVERYONE is. (Within reason.) The Cavs only have two offensive options at this point. A third option, even an average-efficiency one, is huge.
(On defense, I have to admit I think of Jamison as pretty average, maybe a step below average. Is he really that bad now? Is it even possible to tell, given that he’s been on the Wizards?)
It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...
I haven't researched
Jamison’s defense all that much. But from 82games.com where they come up with the “roland” rating, which is a combination of production/production against and adjusted +- numbers, they have this:
min own opp net on off net roland rating
Jamison 66% 20.3 18.4 +1.9 -2.9 -6.7 +3.9 +2. 7
http://www.82games.com/0910/0910WAS.HTM
So basically the first block of numbers are the production/production against numbers. According to their numbers, Jamison “produces” 20.3, but he gives up 18.4. this 18.4 number is pretty huge. In fact, out of all the Wizards that actually play any significant minutes, that’s 10 players, there are only 2 Wizards who have a worse (higher) number than Jamison. Rashard Lewis by comparison has a 17.3 number. I haven’t looked at opponent PER (sorry, don’t know where i can find that number), but basically i don’t think Jamison is even an average defender.
Jamison is, more or less, a below average defender.
Though that’ll change now that he’s in Mike Brown’s defensive scheme.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
not to mention
Jamison is 33 years old and in decline. There is a reason why the Wiz gave him up for nothing. Declining players, as you guys have learned via VC, may not be worth the price tag.
This trade just made the anticipated playoff matchup between Magic and Cavs a whole lot more interesting. Its going to be a good ball game everytime they play. I’m anxious to see a preview on sunday. I think jamison to cle has its pros and cons. But definitely not the type of impact amare to cle would have had.
He usually gets those goofy floaters to fall and he’s really not that efficient as we read on eddie’s link. However, dude can still go for 30 on a bad team any given night so he’s good for 15 a game in cle I would think… He may be able to guard lewis on the perimeter but he’s no artest so he’s not going to shut lewis down.
Clevelands still weak on the bench, and in the playoffs as much as rashard hurt them, it was the fact that pietrus outscored their bench that really helped us pull away. I watched highlights of the game 6 clincher and the espn dudes were saying how mp outscored the cavs reserves in the series. We have the better bench so I’m not worried. Now they’ve got no backup 5 and even if they get Z back, if dwight can stay out of trouble we still have that advantage.
by jonathan.rivera84 on Feb 18, 2010 2:47 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I disagree.
Cleveland’s bench becomes a bit stronger with the acquisition of Jamison. A little more depth.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I feel we still have an advantage with our bench though.
I hate Varejao.
I agree
Lebron is the equalizer right now-He doesn’t foul out and he is young enough to play 95% of the game.
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I agree, but Cleveland's bench isn't weak.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Big Z anyone? Apparently a bunch of teams are trying to sign him once he gets bought out by the Wiz. Doubt he would consider the Magic but adding a big body for the playoff run wouldn’t hurt.
"Where do you go from here, Dion?" "I go to Toronto."
Spreading that Calgary Flames, Montreal Expos, The U, and Orlando Magic love.
I’m not sure that he’d add anything, really. He’s not mobile, which harms his ability to function within our defense (and, to a lesser extent, the offense). He has decent range, but that’s less important for our centers, since every 1-4 on the team except Bass has range, opening up the middle for Howard/Gortat. The only reason I could see to sign Z would be to keep Cleveland from having him, which isn’t a good enough reason for me.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Yeah, same here.
Maybe to throw some fouls in against Shaq, but hopefully Adonal will be healthy by then if it comes to that. If he’s even on the playoff roster, that is.
I hate Varejao.
Z wouldn't play.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Hawks, Nuggets, Mavericks will go hard after him
And there’s no incentive for the Wiz to buy him out now that they’re under the tax threshold.
I've wondered if Washington's animosity toward CLE crops back up post-trade.
And they just keep Z on the roster for spite. GMs can be prone to that kind of thing. We’ll see.
"This is two good games in a row for Carter -- not a full blown trend yet, but if it becomes one the Magic just got a lot more scary." ~Kurt Helin
by magicfaninTN on Feb 18, 2010 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
It'll probably depend on how much they can save with a buyout
I think Big Z’s contract has about $4.5m left on it…if he takes say his month’s salary and a $500k buyout, it would take a pretty spiteful GM to knock back nearly $3m in savings.
by eltharion_doa on Feb 18, 2010 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
It makes them a front runner. They added a 20 and 8 guy, for virtually nothing. I know he is aging, so his contract isn’t great, but for this season this is a big move.
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Makes'em scary
But not scarier than the Magic. They’ve now got a bit of the one size fits all look seeing that Brown can trot out a lineup against any match-up thrown at them, but the Magic already had that. So instead of match-ups I feel it will come down to which team is fit together better, and I still think Orlando trumps them. Just my opinion though.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

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