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Orlando Magic Preseason Lookback, Vol. 3: Five-Man Unit Data

I've mentioned some of the Orlando Magic's lineup data in a few other posts on this site, but for what may be the final installment in the Preseason Lookback series, I wanted to attend to those data in greater detail.

The Magic's preseason spanned 336 minutes over seven games, during which time coach Stan Van Gundy deployed 58 distinct lineups. However, just 18 of those lineups spent more than 6 minutes on the court together; the other 40 ranged in use from 18 seconds to 5 minutes, 47 seconds, so I'll spend considerably less effort explicating them. Mickael Pietrus is the only rotation player who missed more than the customary one game for rest, which means Van Gundy indeed had a mostly full complement of players to mix and match.

First and foremost, the five likely starters steamrolled their competition, as I documented last week. With Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter in the backcourt, with Quentin Richardson, Rashard Lewis, and Dwight Howard up front, the Magic outscored their opponents by 41 points in 39:29. Though the numbers are not adjusted for opponent quality, they're nonetheless impressive, and demonstrate the ease with which the free-agent signee Richardson has assimilated with the team.

The next most used lineup, at 26:01, featured Lewis sliding to small forward to make room for Brandon Bass at power forward. This group, too, proved effective: it had a plus-27 scoring differential and did most of its damage on the defensive end. Its offensive rating of 109.6 is more "good" than "great," but the D yielded an incredible 60 points per 100 possessions. Bear in mind that, prior to taking the court this preseason, Lewis and Bass had never manned the forward positions together; their shared time came with Lewis at power forward and Bass at center.

As a result of Orlando's frequent blowouts--it won its final five games by an average of 31.8 points, with its smallest victory margin in that span, 13, coming with Carter, Lewis, and Howard resting--Van Gundy often had to turn to his second unit. It proved ineffective due to its shortcomings on offense, something which he might need to address, given that he might actually need to use this lineup in the regular season. In 16:59 on the floor, Magic opponents outscored the lineup of Chris Duhon, J.J. Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Bass, and Marcin Gortat by a 30-18 margin. This group scored its 18 points on 36 possessions, strongly indicating that it needs an additional scoring presence. Duhon isn't a threat, and with Pietrus' shot off and Gortat rarely sought, the task fell to Redick and Bass to generate offense here.

Subbing Ryan Anderson for Brandon Bass in that lineup makes sense, as the Magic scored 115 points per 100 possessions with Anderson in Bass' place with those other four reserves. The group with Anderson played 10:31 this preseason, making it the fifth most-often used lineup.

After the jump, a look at the most effective players at each position.

Star-divide

POSITION-BY-POSITION PLAY, BY INDIVIDUAL

Here's how the team performed, on both ends of the court, with the given player on the floor at that particular position. The table is sorted by time spent positionally, and then by time, in descending order. The team leaders' lines are shaded in gray, with a minimum threshold of 50 minutes required:

Pos.PlayerMinsOffenseDefenseDiff.
PtsPoss.RatingPtsPoss.Rating
PGNelson167:22393320122.824431976.546.3
Duhon166:2232032698.230032692.06.1
Redick2:1665120.0050.0120.0
SGRedick162:44348312111.527732086.625.0
Carter133:20297257115.620125180.135.5
Pietrus39:56748290.2667983.56.7
SFRichardson133:56292251116.320824983.532.8
Lewis94:31225186121.014218775.945.0
Pietrus54:369310588.68810881.57.1
Robinson41:14778788.5828596.5-8.0
Carter11:433222145.52421114.331.2
PFBass124:13268243110.318223876.533.8
Anderson124:06243238102.123524396.75.4
Lewis54:44121101119.8699969.750.1
Allen18:104238110.5343889.521.1
Gortat17:274531145.2243275.070.2
CHoward158:09357307116.323130575.740.5
Gortat117:47263248106.023125192.014.0
Allen40:108279103.8717792.211.6
Bass9:541717100.0111764.735.3

OBSERVATIONS

The team was at its very best with Nelson running the show on offense, and wasn't too bad with him on defense, either. As such, he owns the team's second-best efficiency differential.

Lewis is the team's best option at either forward slot, which lends credence to Van Gundy's idea that it's best to move Lewis around based on matchups, which in turn gives the Magic comfort with different, versatile offensive approaches.

I'm surprised we saw so litle of Carter at small forward, given how often he and Redick paired up on the wings in the postseason. And Gortat got hardly any time alongside Howard in a big lineup, though when together, they proved effective.

Please note that I'm still compiling positional pair data--for example, which guard combinations worked the best?--and will post on them when I have more time.

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Honestly, I don't see any other option

Fan of Magic (99-00), Gators (06-07), & Rays (08-09)
Troy Hudson & Keith Bogans' Biggest Fan

by Reediculous on Oct 28, 2010 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder if we can run simulations based on these numbers to see how effective a lineup with Rashard at both the 3 & 4 would be

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Oct 28, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Like a 4 on 5 game?

Fan of Magic (99-00), Gators (06-07), & Rays (08-09)
Troy Hudson & Keith Bogans' Biggest Fan

by Reediculous on Oct 28, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, 5-man lineup

Run a simulation with this lineup:
PG: Jameer
SG: Vince
C: Dwight
PF: Rashard
SF: Bizarro Rashard

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Oct 28, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do we have to pay Bizarro Rashard as much as real Rashard?

Because I’m pretty sure Bizarro Rashard should be paying us.

You mess with the 4-out/1-in, you get the Horns.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 28, 2010 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, that's the beauty of Bizarro Rashard

Since Bizarro Rashard’s social security number is exactly the same as the real Rashard, you have to split his salary between the two. I would venture to say that both Rashards at $10,257,000 each is very reasonable for two all-star quality players.

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Oct 28, 2010 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

You improve the line up by moving Lewis over for Q, you lose a little moving bass in, but not as much as you gain from lewis moving over. Time to get rid of some 3’s.

by David Polega on Oct 28, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

The "little" you lose is the entire offensive scheme.

There’s no 4-1 offense if Bass can’t shoot the 3-ball.

Lewis is still the Magic’s most effective PF for the game they play.

by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Oct 28, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

So he shoots an 18 footer or form top of the key instead. 1 in 4 out is just a tag line that describe a motion offense that lands its shooters away from Howard so he has room to work. This does not have to be behind the triple stripe to work, you only need the key clear to operate in the post.

Besides, if boston can stunt our 1/4 by staying home, why be so in love with it? Its just as effective run screen and rolls out of other sets.

by David Polega on Oct 28, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any text you read on the 4-out-1-in places 4 players outside of the 3-point line and 1 in either the high or low post. It is a motion offense and is designed to focus on the most efficient shots, one at the rim, a free throw or a three point shot. Stan developed the Horns Set to there would be an offense that Bass could be effective in, Bass will never be able to play the 4-out-1-in set.

"Teams are making adjustments to us, it’s not the other way around," Smith said. "Right after (the Heat) signed LeBron and Bosh, they went out and signed eight centers. So I’m not overly concerned."

I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll

by NC Magic Fan on Oct 28, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Because an 18 footer is that drastic of a spacing change?

The horns set was developed because 4-1 is not unstoppable if everyone stays home. The Horns set offers picks from different directions so that switches are forced, or players break loose. It has nothing to do with bass, only to do with not being so predictable that Boston can pick 1 defensive philosophy and stick with it as it shuts down our offense.

Bass has played in 4/1 before with this team, you act like the world explodes if someone tries it. It works fine, he just adjusts where his shot is from. Tell me what does being on the baseline 3 or being at 18 foot baseline change in the offensive spacing? The answer is nothing, besides maybe better rebound positioning.

by David Polega on Oct 28, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Five feet is five feet.

Assuming Dwight’s stationed around 6 feet from the basket, there are 12 feet between him and a guy at 18 feet. There are 17 feet between him and a guy at 23 feet.

A lot of defenders can get 12 feet (or close enough with reach) in the time it takes to pass the ball. It’s much easier to switch and then switch back than it is with a guy behind the three-point line.

Moreover, the defender of the guy at 18 feet (who is at 15 feet or so) is in front of the other three defenders, as seen from the perspective of the guy in the post. He can interfere with passing lanes. Whereas if everyone’s at the same “depth”, i.e. they’re scattered around the perimeter in a circular fashion, the only guy who can defend a pass is the recipient’s man.

We’ve tried the 4-out/1-in with 18-foot jumper guys before (most notably Tony Battie). It doesn’t work, just as it didn’t work last year when we tried it with Bass.

You mess with the 4-out/1-in, you get the Horns.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 28, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is not possible to play 4-out-1-in without 4 3-point shooters. That is true by definition.

SVG had to devise a new set to accommodate Bass’ short comings. They did not pursue Barnes after he rejected his option because Matt was no a good enough 3-point shooter, that is why they were willing to pay Q more.

I applaud that Stan has adopted the offense to use Brandon because with the 4-out-1-in he would be no more than trade bait.

"Teams are making adjustments to us, it’s not the other way around," Smith said. "Right after (the Heat) signed LeBron and Bosh, they went out and signed eight centers. So I’m not overly concerned."

I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll

by NC Magic Fan on Oct 28, 2010 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Van Gundy has admitted that our offensive schemes are becoming to predictable

The whole goal is to make teams form to how we play and not be so obvious about what we are going to do EVERYTIME we run down the court like last year a dwight would spend 10 seconds with the ball and have to throw something up because teams started to understand our plans, the case was just that even though they knew what we were going to do most of the teams couldnt stop it except for the larger teams that were built to beat us.

by Vanek on Oct 28, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

It can't get there fast enough

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"Teams are making adjustments to us, it’s not the other way around," Smith said. "Right after (the Heat) signed LeBron and Bosh, they went out and signed eight centers. So I’m not overly concerned."

I'll tell ya about the Magic It'll free your soul but it's like trying to tell a stranger 'bout rock n roll

by NC Magic Fan on Oct 28, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I read that some folks are worried that the arena might not be very loud because of the boxes

separating the stands, could you give your feeling about that after ?

Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.

by 44792212 on Oct 28, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

preseason was MUCH quieter...

although it’s preseason, so who can really say. Everyone does seem very spread out in the new arena, and a lot of people seem to spend a lot of time outside of their seats (especially the nicer seats, apparently people want to buy expensive tickets so they have access to their exclusive bar.)

by Alan J Ganssle on Oct 28, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Man this might not be the place to say this

I think it is pretty sorry the NBA schedules us to play Miami’s home opener, gives them two warm-up games then a day off, but schedules us to play that game on our second game on a back to back. I know during the season it is going to work out that way, but to schedule that way right off the bat to what should be our biggest divisional foe is stupid. The Magic could have played Wednesday instead and let some other team play on TNT Thursday. Boston gets to play a depleted Cav team (even though they lost), Miami gets to play a average Philly team on their second game, we get the Heat’s home opener. Just doesn’t seem fair to have to play them that way. Especially when the starters are all unused to playing back to backs or logging heavy minutes yet.

If you were a man I would punch you, right in the mouth.

by Eric9321 on Oct 28, 2010 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Seriously, the Heat could bitch about having to play 2 championship contenders within days of each other to start a season

It’s all relative, and the schedule is as fair as it can possibly be. Unless the NBA forces the Magic to play games 3 consecutive nights while the other teams don’t have to or something along that lines, we really have nothing to complain about.

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Oct 28, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Magic don't have a road trip longer than 6 games this season.

There are a lot of teams that can’t say that.

You mess with the 4-out/1-in, you get the Horns.

by 3.3seconds on Oct 28, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

But I can still not like it can't I

I am not talking about the whole season. I am taking about the second game of the season where we have to play in the Heat’s opener. I hate the Heat and all they represent, I just wish the NBA could have scheduled us to play this game on a slightly more even keel.

If you were a man I would punch you, right in the mouth.

by Eric9321 on Oct 28, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have an exam at 8:30...

Probably leaving some questions blank to make it home for the second half.

"It's difficult to win when you're outscored in every quarter." -Bill Walton

by betterthanburke on Oct 28, 2010 12:21 PM EDT reply actions  

good attitude !!! Magic will destroy your future.

Game starts at 2 AM and I gotta be at work at 9, but no way I’m gonna miss this.

Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.

by 44792212 on Oct 28, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I live in Romania

It doesn’t really make sense to wake up at 2 AM in the night to watch it and then go to work when I can watch it in replay at good quality (better computer at work)

by Raptorel on Oct 28, 2010 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

you don't get TNT in Romania?!?!1

what is this world coming to, honestly

I'm a girl.

by TheGiantSquid on Oct 28, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

The better question is, "You can watch an entire game at work without getting in trouble?!?!?!?"

honestly, what is the world coming to when people can obtain money without actually earning it?

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Oct 28, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

to things like this ?

Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.

by 44792212 on Oct 28, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can play games, do whatever

As long as when it’s time to work, I work. Which is kind of rare but whatever. I earn ~350$ a month (average monthly salary here).

by Raptorel on Oct 28, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well let's be fair

You don’t know what his job is, some people’s jobs (firefighters for example) are on call jobs where they just have to be there and ready if something comes up.

If you were a man I would punch you, right in the mouth.

by Eric9321 on Oct 28, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

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