Orlando Magic Preseason Lookback, Vol. 2: Advanced Rebounding and Passing Metrics
by Evan Dunlap on Oct 25, 2010 12:00 PM EDT
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As a sort of interlude between the meatier Orlando Magic preseason evaluations, I wanted to take a look at their players' individual rebounding and ballhandling statistics, with a major assist from Pick And Scroll's Advanced Stats Calculator. First, a look at rebounding rate, which estimates the percentage of available rebounds a given player snares when on the court. The leaders are shaded, but in this case, you could probably guess the leaders.
| Rebounding Rate Stats | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | OReb% | DReb% | TReb% | |||||||||||||||
| Malik Allen | 0 | 5.4 | 3.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Ryan Anderson | 9.4 | 22.0 | 16.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Brandon Bass | 11.4 | 22.8 | 17.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Vince Carter | 2.0 | 10.4 | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||
| Chris Duhon | 1.7 | 6.2 | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||
| Marcin Gortat | 3.0 | 22.9 | 14.6 | |||||||||||||||
| Dwight Howard | 11.7 | 36.3 | 26.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Rashard Lewis | 1.9 | 9.6 | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||
| Jameer Nelson | 0.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||
| Mickael Pietrus | 1.2 | 11.7 | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||
| J.J. Redick | 0.9 | 12.0 | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||
| Quentin Richardson | 4.8 | 18.0 | 12.1 | |||||||||||||||
| Stanley Robinson | 10.6 | 22.3 | 17.5 | |||||||||||||||
Yes, Dwight Howard dominated the boards to a ridiculous extent in the preseason, which included grabbing more than one in three available defensive boards when on the court. Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass continue to improve in the rebounding areas, Marcin Gortat continues to decline--though his work on the defensive glass is still exemplary--and Quentin Richardson lived up to his reputation as an excellent rebounder on the wings.
At the other end of the spectrum, every Magic player managed to grab a higher percentage of available rebounds than 6-foot-10 forward Malik Allen. The only players with worse rebounding rates than the 6-foot-10 Rashard Lewis were the two point guards and Allen.
After the jump, passing stats, once again with the aid of the Advanced Stats Calculator.
This table will include usage rate, which estimates the percentage of team possessions used when on the floor; assist and turnover rates, which estimate the percentage of a given player's possessions that end with those respective outcomes; and Pure Point Rating, a John Hollinger-devised metric which aims to improve on assist-to-turnover ratio by counting turnovers as more harmful than assists are helpful and adjusting for minutes played.
| Passing/Ballhandling Rate Stats | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Usage% | AST% | TO% | PPR | ||||||||||||||
| Malik Allen | 15.0 | 0 | 10.8 | -3.4 | ||||||||||||||
| Ryan Anderson | 22.4 | 5.5 | 8.4 | -1.9 | ||||||||||||||
| Brandon Bass | 24.6 | 10.1 | 15.7 | -4.7 | ||||||||||||||
| Vince Carter | 24.7 | 16.8 | 11.7 | -0.2 | ||||||||||||||
| Chris Duhon | 15.0 | 33.1 | 35.9 | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||
| Marcin Gortat | 14.2 | 6.3 | 23.3 | -4.1 | ||||||||||||||
| Dwight Howard | 27.6 | 6.6 | 21.4 | -10.1 | ||||||||||||||
| Rashard Lewis | 19.5 | 6.8 | 8.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||||||||
| Jameer Nelson | 17.2 | 38.4 | 13.1 | 11.6 | ||||||||||||||
| Mickael Pietrus | 19.1 | 5.4 | 7.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||||||||
| J.J. Redick | 20.7 | 15.3 | 18.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Quentin Richardson | 18.1 | 17.4 | 11.5 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stanley Robinson | 14.7 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||
Nelson's passing statistics were marvelous during the exhibition schedule, which is obvious here. He trimmed his shot attempts--and therefore usage--in favor of passing first, with great results. Duhon was far less successful, and needs to be choosier with his passes.
After expressing frustration with his lack of offensive involvement all summer, it must vex Marcin Gortat to have the lowest usage rate on the entire team, including camp invitees Malik Allen and Stanley Robinson. Remember, Gortat is the go-to-guy on the Polish National Team. He's having to sacrifice a lot in Orlando. It wouldn't have hurt the Magic too badly to run a few plays for him.
Pietrus' profile won't change much in the regular season. Because he's a catch-and-shoot player, he posts surprisingly low assist numbers, but also low turnovers. The same can be said for Ryan Anderson and Rashard Lewis.
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Sarcasm aside, people’s love for Anderson and Gortat make that a real possibility(and people crying “witch” every time someone mentioned moving Lewis to the 3 before this preseason.)
People seem to think its crazy to believes the second most athletic person on the team should be used in the starting line up. It confuses me.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
People like Anderson and Gortat because they are simply better players than Bass.
I personally don’t like the lineup where Gortat is at the 4, because it rarely works on the offensive side of the ball. Pre-season stats suffer from SSS (Small sample size) and in addition to that, the lineups teams play in the pre-season are usually not very conducive to winning games. Bass has played well, but everyone on the team played reasonably well during the pre-season.
It can be a good problem to have to have too many good players to play. Stan has said that all three power forwards will likely play each game during the first half and whomever performs better that particular night will most likely be the player who plays in the 2nd half of that game. This will be adjusted for matchups, etc. as well. If Bass is playing fine during the regular season, and we are winning games, I don’t care who plays. Under no circumstance should he be the starting power forward, outside of injury. Just because I believe the previous sentence, doesn’t mean I hate Brandon Bass, it means that I believe Rashard Lewis to be a superior option starting at that position. Rashard will likely play a good deal of minutes at the 3 position with Brandon at the 4, but this will likely be during the 2nd quarter with the respective benches in the game. I think that will be the most effective use of Bass and Lewis together.
The stats say a lot of things about Brandon Bass.
These preseason stats say he’s an above-average rebounder, and that he shoots 57% from the field. Five years of in-season stats say otherwise. I’ll take multiple seasons of actual basketball over seven preseason games.
The preseason stats also say that his poor passing is a substantial liability, that he shoots a lot for a backup (third-highest usage on the team!), and that he needs to shoot well over 50% to be even a moderately efficient scorer, because he doesn’t shoot threes and rarely gets to the line. These numbers are in line with the Bass we saw last year, and the Bass whose stats we know from previous years.
I mean, that’s the preseason for you… it’s not meaningless at all, but you have to take it with a grain of salt, and balance it against what you know about those players in the long run.
It’s the same thing you’d do for a seven-game stretch in the regular season… if a guy has looked good the past couple weeks, you open up a few more opportunities for him, and see whether he can extend that success. But you don’t forget his 55% true shooting in previous years and assume he’s suddenly a 60% guy… unless you see him being a 60% guy for far longer than 7 games. You don’t forget his crappy rebounding last season.
And that’s what’s happening with Bass… they’ll give him a chance to see whether he’s better than the guy we saw last year.
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
I’ve always thought that 50% shooting is good, and bass was 51% from the field last season, 53% during playoffs. Additionally his free throw shooting bottoms out around 83%, so I don’t understand how his pure shooting rating could go down. Even if you don’t think his offense is pretty, because of how he scores you can consistently expect the same out of him.
On to the subjective part: I don’t feel like Brandon Bass is a player that will disappear in the play offs, and he is our best Playoff option at the 4(thats only if lewis at the 3 works out as well as I believe it will.) No 4/5 combination is tougher inside than Dwight/Bass, ANYWHERE in the league. Bass is not the most skilled player I know, but neither is Dwight. Strength and Explosiveness matter, and those 2 together decimate any notion of getting bullied down low. Will bass still get out played some nights by the opposing 4? Yes. But not any more so than our other options at 4. I think the one exception might actually be using Lewis to guard KG, his length and speed are a good answer for KG’s offense. I don’t think having less power on the court is the right answer in the long run at the 4/5 spot, though special circumstances like the one above give reason to play lewis at the 4 instead of the 3.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean his pure shooting rating should not go below the 50’s because he’s shoots a decent free throw and shoots 50% fg.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, look at last year.
Bass shot 50% from the field and his efficiency was below the team average. (And barely above the league average.)
Shooting 50% alone doesn’t cut it… that’s one point per possession. In order to get efficient, you have to shoot threes, or you have to attempt a lot of free throws, or you have to shoot way above 50%.
Bass can’t do any of that, so his efficiency is effectively capped… even with that unreal 15-22 preseason line on jumpers, he still barely hit 60%.
And once you deal with all of that, you need to take Bass’ turnovers into account, and his inability to set other players up.
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
That makes sense, didn’t think of the stat break down like that. I like any player that can score on the Iso because last year that seemed to be our problem, it was give it to howard or hope JJ reddick could find someone open off his pistol pete impersonation. Now they put perk/shaq on Howard and Bass can bully Garnett to under the rim. At least it’s someone else you can let work an iso.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
you're saying brandon bass is a capable enough scorer to score at will over one of the best defensive players in the last 30 years?
surely you jest
Surely you don’t think Garnett can keep from getting back downed no matter what hype has filled your head.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
There is 0 chance that Bass is our best PF for the playoffs. Lewis has had all of one or two bad playoff series since he arrived in Orlando, one of them just so happened to be the ECF last year.
When have we been “bullied” down low anyhow? 2009 Finals??? That was largely an experience vs inexperience factor. We were two good quarters away from having a 3-1 lead in that series, but executed poorly. We most certainly weren’t bullied in last years ECF. Paul Pierce torched us, and Boston got incredible contributions from its bench players, while we got virtually nothing outside of Dwight and JJ.
This is considering Lewis gets moved to the 3 spot. Obviously, Lewis starts at 4 if he doesn’t get moved to 3.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Q-Rich is really fitting in wonderfully.
He can be the lower profile (exploits and demeanor wise) version of what we thought Barnes would be. Truly an improvement from Barnes and someone to watch. Glue guy.
Definitely.
His shot was a little off in the preseason, but you have to like that defensive rebounding, and the third-highest pure point rating on the team.
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
Tru dat.
As much talk as there is about the backups and potential second/third/forth lineups the Magic has to deal with…the starting line of Nelson, Carter, Q-Rich, Lewis, Howard is looking pretty darn impressive.
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Oct 25, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Hat tip to your name BBQ
Fan of Magic (99-00), Gators (06-07), & Rays (08-09)
Troy Hudson & Keith Bogans' Biggest Fan
I love his natural sense for a rebound.
BTW in what universe does Bass gets almost the same usage% than VC ? I guess in the pre-season universe.
Don't mind my spelling. I'm a Typo Master.
Carter sat a lot during the pre-season and when he’s not on the court the magic’s playbook gives it to either him at the elbow or block or Howard on the block with about 7 seconds left on the shot clock. Since Howard was getting rest as well, the duty of making your own offense at the bottom of the clock was left to bass. The play runs its normal sequence and if they get nothing from it they end with Carter, Howard, Lewis, or Bass Iso’d in a spot they like.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm curious about this lineup:
Nelson, Q-Rich, Lewis, Anderson/Bass, Howard.
I don’t know if Richardson can gaurd the 2, but if he could…that’d be a sweet combination of scoring and rebounding on the floor. Spread the offense out with Anderson or go more traditional with Bass, either way you have 3 guys on the floor with good size and a nose for rebounds.
BenQ…you know more about individual stats than I do. Is there any way Q-Rich would be able to slide over to the Shooting Gaurd position?
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Oct 25, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
What are you're thoughts on that lineup then?
Nelson, Q, Lewis, Anderson/Bass, Howard
or a “big” lineup of:
Carter, Q, Lewis, Anderson/Bass, Howard
Obviously I’m not looking for a full statistical breakdown, just your quick thoughts on a lineup like those. I will take however many stats you feel like giving though…I’m a data-nut as well!
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Oct 25, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
What if VC played PG then?
The lineup would be rather large in that case, and even better rebounding with VC over Nelson. I’d imagine they’d might be weak against faster-paced teams, though Van Gundy has always been willing to sacrifice the o-boards in order to get back on D.
Dunno. Hopefully they try a few of these odd combination out.
by The BBQ Chicken Madness on Oct 25, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The Magic need a point guard to direct the offense.
No matter what else they do, they need to have Nelson or Duhon (or presumably Williams) in there, or else the entire system will break down.
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
What else do you expect Bass to do? Pass the ball?
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
Oh, you're being unfair!
He shot 68.2% on jumpers! That’s WAY more sustainable!
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
I don't necessarily want the Magic to make a trade
But I don’t want to see people rot on the bench either. I mean, we have the second highest payroll in the league, second only to the Lakers (who have produced 2 championships and 3 trips to the finals overall). So its justifiable to want everyone to get some burn, or at least be traded for someone who will.
My 'can do' spirits in the house, and its possessing your possessions did you hear it by the couch?
by Dome of the Rock on Oct 25, 2010 3:39 PM EDT reply actions
You're right about Bass on most points, but...
Lets say it’s end-of-game and the Magic are down by one point; there are 5 secs on the clock; Howard and Lewis are covered; the inside is jammed… Who do you give the ball to, Anderson or Bass?
See? This is where efficiency is NOT relevant!
I still like Anderson over Bass for most plays; but there ARE situations where Bass has a clear advantage.
Bass wouldnt be on the floor so its irrelevant.
The lineup at that point would be Howard Lewis Richardson Carter Nelson.
Carter would take that shot.
Or to put it another way...
Who do you TRUST on a KEY situation where you just need, NOT a three, but a plain-Ol- bucket? Lewis… Anderson… Nelson, or Bass?
Though it depends on the play, really. Anderson and Bass won't be out there in crunch time.
Bass, I think, can create his own shot better than Anderson, but the risk of a turnover is much higher. And I’d rather rely on an open 3 than a contested 2.
Who's open?
Unless, of course, it takes playing time away from Ryan Anderson.
by 3.3seconds on Oct 25, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
With seconds left I don’t think bass is the answer. If you’re having trouble getting offense, the dude can score by himself in iso, which is only true of Carter and Howard otherwise.
The last play with Bass in the line-up would be a carter/howard pick and roll with Bass setting a back screen for lewis pop to the three.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Lewis CAN, but is better open on a wing than posting up, and Nelson requires a pick and roll. He’s not gonna score on an Iso at any where near the efficient Howard, Bass or Carter would. The offense ends with 1 of these 3 in Iso(usually Howard- Bigs inside will always be bread and butter when the talent is there to do it.) The reason it ends with 1 of these three in Iso is not because they are necessarily the best skill set players, but because they can finish with the ball in their hand if you get them to comfy spot.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
except bass isnt efficient
and orlando rarely runs isos
one of our best plays at the end is the pick and pop lewis corner 3 from the inbounds play
You don’t need to “run” an iso, a basketball runs its course and if you got nothing from it, gives you an Iso in some player’s comfort zone.
Basketball 101
Quit talking so condescending like you know X’s and O’s when you don’t understand basic offense. Disgusting troll.
by David Polega on Oct 25, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes I am the troll. Not the person who think Brandon Bass is the 5th best player on Orlando's roster.
I understand our offense. Any type of play that results in a Brandon Bass isolation is most likely going to be the 7th or 8th (at best) most effective option on the court at any given time.
by MagicMark on Oct 25, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Evan Dunlap?
Trying to “make a name of yourself” huh, “Ben”? :D
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