Observations on the Rotations

by magicfaninTN on Jan 7, 2010 6:34 AM EST

Tuesday, TrueHoop interviewed statistician Wayne Winston, in "Ten Weeks In, Ten Questions with Wayne Winston." I posted the follow quote that grabbed my attention as a FanShot:

10. You have told me that many coaches do things you simply cannot understand, for instance by ignoring some really good lineups. What are some of the best lineups from this season, and are some of them not being played enough?
As I described above, the Lakers have the best lineups. After that, some of the best in the League are:

....
Magic: Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick Rating +56
Magic: Matt Barnes, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and Jason Williams Rating +36

So….what? Sit Carter and Lewis? Start Jason Williams? What?!

After back-to-back-to-back losses (Chicago, Indiana, Toronto), I’ve spent some time looking at the lineup data available at 82games.com (thru Jan 4, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (thru Jan 6, 2010). The Top Five-Man Floor Units from 82games are listed below. This list is "Top-10" based on minutes played together, not team performance.

Top Five-Man Floor Units

#	Unit	Min	Off	Def	+/-	W	L	Win%
1	Williams-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard	273.7	1.10	1.06	+21	11	7	61.1
2	Nelson-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard	65.8	1.05	0.89	+24	4	1	80.0
3	Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard	58.7	1.56	0.95	+70	6	0	100
4	Nelson-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard	56.4	1.03	1.07	-4	2	3	40.0
5	Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Bass-Howard	41.6	0.94	1.24	-25	0	4	0.0
6	Williams-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard	41.2	1.39	1.15	+22	8	4	66.6
7	Williams-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard	35.2	1.08	1.09	+10	7	1	87.5
8	A.Johnson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Gortat	33.8	0.98	1.35	-25	4	5	44.4
9	A.Johnson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard	31.8	1.29	1.02	+11	4	3	57.1
10	Williams-Redick-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard	29.8	1.25	1.11	+5	4	3	57.1

Top Five-Man Floor Units, Details

#	Unit	eFG	eFGA	FTA	Close	dClose	Reb	T/O
1	Williams-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard	.470	.441	+26	31%	29%	48.0%	-4%
2	Nelson-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard	.418	.457	+25	29%	28%	52.5%	+6%
3	Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard	.561	.422	+4	47%	27%	64.5%	+2%
4	Nelson-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard	.478	.422	-9	43%	21%	48.0%	-8%
5	Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Bass-Howard	.397	.542	+3	43%	32%	48.5%	-3%
6	Williams-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard	.556	.434	+15	24%	26%	47.0%	-3%
7	Williams-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard	.468	.474	+6	39%	28%	51.5%	-3%
8	A.Johnson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Gortat	.382	.556	+1	18%	24%	46.5%	-8%
9	A.Johnson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard	.477	.415	+14	27%	23%	55.5%	-3%
10	Williams-Redick-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard	.595	.429	+14	24%	27%	38.0%	-1%

In looking at the lineups here are some of my thoughts about how the Magic might improve their rotation.

Assumptions:

1. As has been pretty well defended at this site by Ben and Eddy, playing Bass with Howard is worse for the team than Lewis or Anderson (see line #5 and compare to #3). Unit #5 leaves the discussion for now.

2. Anthony Johnson is clearly our 3rd PG. Units #8 & 9 leave the discussion for now.

3. Howard is better than Gortat. Other depth chart positions are open for discussion.

4. Getting below the top 10 units in minutes-per-unit makes drawing conclusions more difficult, ‘cause the sample size shrinks. For the most part, I will keep to the remaining lineups in this list (#1-4, 6, 7, & 10). Though to figure out who plays best with Gortat, I will use data from basketballvalue.com to assess lineups that have played together less than the above-listed 29.8 minutes.

5. I know that stats are descriptive rather than prescriptive. So, it could be that particular lineups have just coincided with the players’ lack of energy and hustle and/or injuries, and therefore are really reflective of motivation problems rather than on-floor chemistry issues.

6. Basketball is a 48-minute game, so it is more than just putting the best five players on the floor together to have the single best lineup. Plenty of teams have stellar starters, but lose games when their bench hits the floor. It is more important to find the best rotation that gives you the best combination(s) versus your opponent over four quarters. The Magic are plenty deep—maybe the deepest—but are the combinations out of sync? I know the team’s had to adjust for injuries, illnesses, and suspension, but when everyone is available, what works best?

Observations:

A. The lineup we trotted out the last five games (& three losses) Nelson-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard (#4) is not clicking and hasn’t since it was put in place following the Christmas Day loss to Boston.

B. It seems like units that have Pietrus over Barnes (#1 vs. 6 or #2 vs. 4) with Howard/Lewis/Carter and a PG, have lower (ie. better) Defensive Points Per Possession numbers. So, Pietrus is a better defender? Well, seems so. Four of the six units that have played 18 or more minutes together this season and hold opponents to a sub-0.90 Def rating have Mickael in the lineup (and one of those does not even include Howard!). [Factoid: Barnes is not a defensive slouch…some really killer (i.e. 0.80ish rating) defensive units have Barnes and Pietrus together…again, sample size is small.]

C. Seems Nelson’s units are always better than Williams’ on Defensive Points Per Possession (#2 vs. 1 or #4 vs. 6). This seems to parallel the conventional view that Nelson is a better defender than Williams.

D. Nelson-Redick-Pietrus-Anderson-Howard does not appear not only in the top 10, it just does not seem to get used. Not sure why when it is pretty similar to…..

E. The #3 lineup looks like the best unit. Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard. In 58.7 minutes of floor time (nearly five quarters), they have the best eFG to eFGA differential, the best Off. to Def. differential, the greatest percentage of close-in shots, don’t really give up any more close in shots to opponents than any other combo, rebound nearly 12% higher, and have the 2nd best TO ratio. At first I wondered if this was because this unit plays versus the opponent’s 2nd unit. It is not. Often this unit plays when the opponent has one or two bench players in. Just to show the Redick/Anderson flow, swap Nelson out and put Williams in and you have lineup #7, which with over two quarters of time has the 2nd best W:L ratio at 7:1, but not as good stats as the units below, in F.

F. Our 2nd best combo is a pretty close "tie" between #1, 2, and 6 depending on what stat is most important to you. In all three you have Howard/Lewis/Carter. Comparing the units, Williams/Barnes in #6 is the best offensively (and best differentials) and Nelson/Pietrus in #2 is the best defensively.

G. Missing from this data set is who plays well with Gortat (unit #8 is awful). Basketballvalue.com’s data shows that Gortat does better is certain, select lineups.

i. Do not ever play Gortat and Lewis together. Ever. Horrible. For example, Williams-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Gortat in nearly 20 minutes is 0.90 Off rating and Def. rockets to 1.30. Most of the Adj +/- for Gortat/Lewis units are similarly in the -40 range.

ii. Gortat gets some of his best defensive numbers with Brandon Bass at the 4. That surprised me a little bit. And, the offense is not too bad either. [Factoid: But Howard and Bass do NOT work well together. Neither do Gortat and Howard.]

iii. Gortat does well defensively with Anderson, but that combo works better with Pietrus than Barnes. If Barnes and Gortat play together, it worked against Charlotte’s subs to go small play Barnes at the 4. Best realistic Gortat lineups based on this year’s small sample size?

Gortat-Bass-Pietrus-Redick-Williams (26 minutes, Adj+/- is +16.85)

Gortat-Anderson-Pietrus-Redick-Williams (12 minutes, Adj +/- is +59.09)

Gortat-Anderson-Pietrus-Redick-Nelson (10 minutes, Adj +/- is +24.31)

iv. Despite that third lineup in iii., Gortat and Nelson are not nearly as good as Gortat and Williams.

So…..what does all this mean for the rotation?

Conclusions

Play Howard all game. Just kidding.

Pietrus to start at the SF. In my opinion, Pietrus works better as a starter with Howard-Lewis-Carter-Nelson. I know this is the lineup that got killed by Boston, but…. Van Gundy tinkered with the lineup by putting Barnes in at SF just after this Christmas loss and the team has played poorly ever since…even in the wins. Maybe they were psyched out by the loss to the Celtics, but maybe Barnes doesn’t click with the starters. Barnes is played lights out for four games (laid an egg in Toronto), but everyone else has been playing lights off.

Or, Williams to start at PG. Williams-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard is the offensively potent lineup #6. Jameer would be a great 6th man candidate and would finish out games with Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard (lineup #2).

No Gortat and Lewis together. If Howard gets in foul trouble and Gortat comes in, based on the numbers, Lewis needs to sit, too. Can keep trying Nelson with Gortat, but keep an eye on whether or not this works.

Gortat plays better with Bass. Here’s where Bass could get his minutes.

Gortat plays better with Pietrus. This is a dilemma because if Nelson starts, Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Howard also play better with Pietrus than with Barnes. However, if Williams starts, putting Barnes in at SF is better offensively than having Pietrus. This frees Pietrus to platoon with Gortat off the bench and then finish the game with the Nelson/Carter/Lewis/Howard unit.

Play the +56 lineup! Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard. It worked against Toronto, Phoenix, and Detroit. Try it some more!

I have neither the smarts nor the time to put together a full rotation for the team based on this information. Here are lineups that I think work, maybe somebody can sort out the minutes in the comments.

Start either:

Williams-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard (#6) – 1st choice or,

Nelson-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard (#2)

Biggest offensive punch so far this year:

Nelson-Redick-Barnes-Anderson-Howard # 7 (rest Williams, Carter, Lewis)

When Howard is out, either:

Williams-Carter-Pietrus-Bass-Gortat or, (rests Nelson, Barnes, Lewis, Howard) or,

Williams-Redick-Pietrus-Anderson-Gortat (rests Nelson, Carter, Barnes, Lewis, Howard)

Finish with:

Nelson-Carter-Pietrus-Lewis-Howard (#2)

Feel free to comment, correct, commend, debate, disagree, or digest. Thanks for reading.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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Comments

Great post, thanks for taking the time to flesh out your thoughts.

Here’s some quick responses on my end:

- I wouldn’t mind Pietrus starting over Barnes, given that he is the better defender but I’m indifferent.
- I think Bass needs to play more at center, basically because it maintains continuity on offense. I know the Magic take a hit defensively when he’s at the 5 but the offense dies when he’s at the 4.
- I think Stan Van Gundy needs to trot out the Lewis/Anderson/Bass trio more on a situational basis. I say that because that trio isn’t good defensively, though the returns on offense could lessen the blow.
- Anderson needs to play, period.

I’m looking at BasketballValue and there’s a number of net positive lineups Stan Van Gundy can use.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 7, 2010 12:09 PM EST reply actions

Actually, I'll go a step further and say Pietrus should start over Barnes.

Now that I’m looking closer at the data, though there’s some standard error involved at BasketballValue.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 7, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions

I'm moving the other way. Personal preference, I suppose.

I’m leaning more to the Williams-Carter-Barnes-Lewis-Howard starters with Nelson and Pietrus in to finish. Let’s Barnes and Howard stay in with Nelson-Redick-Anderson and Pietrus can play with Gortat (or with Bass and Lewis) and then stay in to finish. Like I laid it out in the post.

by magicfaninTN on Jan 7, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

Follow up...thanks for the interaction.

I suppose playing Bass at the 5 would allow Howard a rest and Lewis to continue on the floor.
-I guess I’m not too keen on Bass at the 5 when we have Gortat, and the Gortat/Bass and Gortat/Anderson combos work pretty well-well enough that I’m not concerned with Lewis on the bench during those stretches. Should Lewis sitting be a concern when Anderson is in the game against an opponents 2nd unit?
-The Lewis/Anderson/Bass trio is intriguing (though with this roster, I’m not sure why we’d bother), maybe with Nelson. If it is tried, I’d like to see it tried one way with Pietrus to improve the unit’s defense and another way with Redick to move the ball and ring the perimeter with shooters.
-Yes, Anderson needs to play.

by magicfaninTN on Jan 7, 2010 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Format fail.

I loathe trying to bullet a list on SBNation with their weirdo encoding.

by magicfaninTN on Jan 7, 2010 12:57 PM EST up reply actions

I don't think it's a concern if Lewis is sitting if Gortat is playing alongside Anderson.

If it’s Bass at center, that’s different. The reason why I suggest Brandon at the 5 is that it’s a position he’s familiar with and it adds a unique dimension to the 4-out/1-in offensive set (his mid-range shooting at center). Van Gundy isn’t afraid to play him there, so it’s not like it’s something that hasn’t been done.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 7, 2010 5:59 PM EST up reply actions

Problem is VC's shooting

Tough to have accurate stats when your main scorer is shooting 18% from the field. That isn’t Barnes fault.

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by Wmillion on Jan 7, 2010 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

One thing I’d been kicking around with a couple guys at work is that it feels like both Jameer and Vince are better off the pick-and-roll, while Williams and Redick are better set shooters (or iso for J-Will). As such, they should be mixed up more – ‘Meer and VC should play fewer minutes together, because they can’t both be working off picks. I’d like to see more Nelson-Redick and Williams-Carter backcourts. I don’t really care about starter or bench, but my gut feeling is that those pairings are more effective than Nelson-Carter and Williams-Redick.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
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Believe"

by The Dark on Jan 7, 2010 2:07 PM EST reply actions

Same thought.

I think Jameer and Vince may get in each other’s way a bit in terms of strengths to their game. I agree with your pairings: Vince/Williams & Jameer/Redick. As such, I think it is easier in terms of personality to move Jameer rather than Carter as the player coming off the bench.

"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." ~Otis Smith

by magicfaninTN on Jan 7, 2010 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Why?

Nelson’s the team captain, Carter’s only just come to the squad. Nelson’s in the prime of his career, Carter’s near the end of his. Nelson’s a borderline All-Star, Carter’s slumped in the middle of the worst shooter period of his career…

I don’t want the Nelson – Howard – Lewis chemistry broken up. Those guys know how to play together, and I think they know how to dominate games by playing together. Injecting Carter into that first unit seems to be a case of spoiling the broth with too many cooks – I want Carter as a sixth man. He’ll still play with Nelson at times, of course, but having four guys who really need the ball a lot on the court for long stretches of game seems to disrupt our offensive rhythym.

Carter needs to be our Ginobili.

Words I never thought I’d say…start Redick over Carter.

by eltharion_doa on Jan 10, 2010 9:02 PM EST up reply actions

That's a fantastic analogy - spoiling the broth with too many cooks.

That’s essentially what’s happening with the first unit. Too many guys need shots.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 11, 2010 4:01 AM EST up reply actions

Great post, lots of interesting material!

(1) On Bass at the four

I want to see Bass play at the power forward slot in a lineup alongside Howard + Bass + Lewis + Carter + Jameer … to see how effective that lineup is before I’m ready to rule Bass out as a power forward for the Magic.

(2) My preferences for most of the rotation questions, outside of the above, are fairly settled.

Four of the starters except for the starting small forward spot are sealed. Gortat and Anderson the backup bigs. Pietrus either the starting SF or the sixth man. Williams the backup guard. Barnes and JJ fight it out for the second wing off the bench role.

I think the team is short one wing player. An above average defender who can start at small forward and allow Pietrus to resume his sixth man role. Doesn’t need to be a star player, just someone capable of giving the team 20 good minutes defensively. Or, if the Bass lineup works out, no need for the new small forward. Start Bass. Have Pietrus in the sixth man role.

nbaroundtable

by NBR on Jan 7, 2010 6:03 PM EST reply actions

Bass at the 4 and Lewis at the 3 won't work.

There’s a reason why Brandon doesn’t get a lot of playing time on the team and that’s why, because the offense suffers when he’s at power forward and the defense gets worse when Lewis is at small forward.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 7, 2010 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not convinced of that yet.

I want to see Bass play alongside the Magic’s best offensive players before coming to that conclusion. That hasn’t happened yet, there’s always been somebody out (Lewis with suspension, Nelson with injury).

nbaroundtable

by NBR on Jan 7, 2010 6:26 PM EST up reply actions

Well, I am.

Playing Bass at the four plays into opposing defenses’ hands because the Magic play more conventional offensive sets, as a result. Likewise, Brandon’s biggest strength (mid-range shooting) is also the most inefficient one to have. Granted, Bass makes a ton of mid-range shots but that’s not what makes Orlando’s offense lethal. Like Rashard told me a while back, it’s the 4-out/1-in philosophy that causes problems for other teams and taking that weapon away is illogical. Especially against a team like Cleveland, despite adding Shaquille O’Neal, still struggle with stretch fours.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 8, 2010 2:18 AM EST up reply actions

Great write-up...

Stats are only a (an important) part of the story. You can’t bring in a lefty every time against a lefty; sometimes you have to go against the percentages…

by mike in munich on Jan 7, 2010 7:20 PM EST reply actions

i agree with NBR

needs to see bass at 4 and shard at 3. maybe it could fit

in OTIS we TRUST...

by Hbkid on Jan 8, 2010 6:06 AM EST reply actions

And, I agree with Eddy.

So who plays D against the other team’s fleet-footed scorer?

You realize that Bass at the 4 and Lewis at the 3 is Nelson-Carter-Lewis-Bass-Howard? Wing defense is going to be pretty slow-footed. We do not have the same Lewis that played in Seattle. IMO, this is the role Barnes and Pietrus fit into and on D why we need them on the floor.

"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." ~Otis Smith

by magicfaninTN on Jan 8, 2010 12:13 PM EST up reply actions