Mid-season perspective

It’s been a long half season for all of us, and for me, because I’ve been forced to miss out on so many Magic games (among other things, as I’ve been in Iraq).  I’ve been loving the last two weeks though, at home, and enjoying some solid basketball.  Since I’ve been gone the whole season, and have only seen the team as it is, right now, I figured I’d drop in to let everyone know what it looks like without the back-story of the first 40 or so games (or as Shane Battier might say, the Martian perspective).  It seemed I got here right as things were turning around. 

I caught the tail end of the Magic/Lakers game, right as the Magic finished their run and gave the game to the Lakers.   Everything I’ve been reading for the last few months immediately made sense.  Takeaway:  VC did not look like we expected him to at the beginning of the season; Kobe didn’t play like Kobe on offense; Matt Barnes played harder than anyone else on the court, with the exception of Kobe on defense; Dwight didn’t seem to be near as bothered by the Lakers’ length as he was in the playoffs, but they also didn’t double team him as ferociously as they did in the playoffs.  It was disappointing, and I walked away from that game scratching my head.  I read Ball Don’t Lie and OPP religiously, and knew what was going on, but it still didn’t make sense for the team I saw last year in the playoffs to look like it did.  It looked like a two to three year regression to a team that would have serious trouble in the second round.

Next up for me was the Bobcats game.  I researched it beforehand, marveling at the sudden emergence of the Cats and of the Grizzlies, two teams I’d tagged for another failing season.  Of note, I was able to see the Bobcats play the Wizards, live, at the end of last season.  I’m not sure if my vision has recovered, but I remember seeing a few plays at a time where the Bobcats knew like they understood what they were about.  Beyond that, the game looked like a high school basketball game with unusually tall and un-energetic players.  I warned my dad before the game that this would be a test for the Magic, much to his disappointment, because he believed they needed another easy one to feast off of.  I went into the game with 50/50 expectations.  Takeaway:  Jameer Nelson definitely outplayed Raymond Felton; the team, as a whole, seems to be making far fewer of the threes that they shoot, compared to last years playoffs; Dwight has not lost anything from last year, and has learned how to shoot a free throw; the Magic, VC included, can play some beautiful, dominating, stifling defense when they get their heads straight.  Let’s get this clear, Charlotte is still a second tier opponent.  They have been playing a stretch of great basketball, but that stretch doesn’t turn them into the Lakers or the Celtics.  Raymond Felton is in the midst of a career defining season as a defensive minded, efficient PG.  Jameer coming out on top of that matchup was a mild surprise for me, and a great sign that physically, he’s well.  On threes, after researching a bit, I’m convinced that the difference I saw was Shard having a cold night.  However, I should note that Vince is on pace to make just as many threes this year as Hedo did last year (regular season) and he’s shooting them at a .302 percentage, compared to Turk’s .356 last year (.386 in the playoffs).  As a team, the Cats lacked anything to contain Dwight, except denying the entry pass, and they weren’t able to do that, as good as their defense is.  By the way, Dwight shot .737 from the line from LA to Memphis.  That’s 42 out of 57 over five games.  He followed it up with a 3 of 10 outing against Boston, but it’s encouraging.  The defense against Charlotte was the real story though.  Stephen Jackson is a scoring guard/forward.  Raymond Felton is shooting .413 from deep this year.  Gerald Wallace is putting up 18 points a game this year.  All manhandled, by decent man defense by the guards (highlighting Vince for once) and absolute domination of the paint by Dwight.  The only way teams are getting inside reliably right now is to draw him away from the paint and move the ball well.  I haven’t seen any of the dribble penetration defense I was reading about a few weeks ago.  With the way the Magic offense has been hiccupping, the only times I’ve seen them in control is when they take control defensively. 

I thankfully missed seeing the Grizzlies game.  I had the same 50/50 misgivings about it.  I caught the last quarter or two on yahoo game channel, and didn’t mind.

I find it odd that every game the Magic play right now seems like a test.  I think it’s good though.  There were expectations at the beginning of the season that were not met as we’ve progressed.  Expectations are being moderated right now, and people are changing the way they view the team and the players.  It seems like the same thing is happening in Boston.  Takeaway:  KG is several years removed from the player that was a top 3 pick every year in fantasy settings; Sheed is aging rapidly, and not the intimidator he once was; the Orlando offense is mediocre for long stretches right now; the Orlando offense is better when VC is not playing; Dwight and Perkins are going to hurt each other down there sooner or later; Big Baby is not that big of a deal; Boston doesn’t seem as deep as it was last year, because it’s bench is not playing as well as it did then; J-Will and Jameer are about equal in basketball value right now; Marcin Gortat and Dwight Howard "can" work well together against the right teams and for the right reasons.  Kevin Garnett is either playing hurt, and his knees won’t ever be what they once were, or he’s not playing hurt, and his knees will never be what they once were.  He wouldn’t be a coach’s pick for all-star starter.  He has regressed to the level of crafty veteran non-all star, much like Shaq and Sheed.  This means that having him back isn’t going to suddenly mean the Magic are playing a better team than they did in the ’09 playoffs.  Sheed is pretty slow, but still has length, which makes him an excellent situational defender.  He’s not going to keep up with Rashard for a whole game, and his help defense is pretty much gone.  He also looks a little chubby.  Orlando’s offense is not the machine that it was last year in the playoffs.  The ball movement is not there.  I watched the Celtics swing it around and dump it down low several times, and thought to myself, the Magic used to move the ball like that.  Things looked a little better with J.J. and Marcin Gortat in the fourth.  Part of this is that J.J. is playing great basketball.  A bigger part of that is that Vince was on the bench.  If anyone had posited before the season that Orlando would even consider starting J.J. Redick and bringing VC off the bench, we would have all dismissed it fairly quickly.  I have to say that I’m in favor.  For that matter, I’m in favor of a trade.  I’m in favor of a trade, because after watching these last few games, and reading everything that’s been written this year, it seems apparent that Vince Carter is not a good fit for the Orlando Magic on offense.  I believed that he would be, but the evidence does not support that.  Vince was supposed to be a trade up, in individual offensive production from Hedo.  I distinctly remember someone from the Magic (I believe Stan) stating that what Vince brought to the team was the ability to always find a quality shot.  The Magic wanted a closer.  They wanted someone to trust the ball with at the end of the game.  They wanted a clutch three, or a drive and a great pull up jumper that left the defenders whiffing.  Vince Carter has a career of highlight reels that indicate that he’s capable of that, even at his advanced (basketball) age.  He also has a number of fantastic box scores that infer that he’s capable of taking over games.  His fans in New Jersey highly recommended him.  If we look at New Jersey now, we can see that he’s sorely missed.  Highlight reels and box scores don’t tell the whole story.  There are players that make great plays and then there are players that are consistently great.  I believe that Vince Carter belongs with the former.  I believe that he had a standout year in Jersey, and that, if returned to a poor young squad with little help around him, Vince could shine once again.  I don’t feel that there is likely to be marked improvement in his play between now and the playoffs, but I could be wrong.  I think Orlando is the wrong fit for Vince Carter, as much as the other way around.  If the Magic could trade him to a club that really needs some help (ala Stephen Jackson to Charlotte) I think Vince could provide them great value.  If not, I suggest Stan start looking at how to strategically use Vince so that he limits his effects on the rest of the squad, and on the overall game.  Vince, properly motivated, can play great defense.  Vince can make great passes, but isn’t.  I don’t know if that can be helped from Stan’s end.  Your mileage may vary.  Moving past Vince, Dwight and Perk were really going at it when Orlando was on offense.  I wasn’t sure how far contact of that extent was legal, but fouls weren’t called, and I guess you’ve got to let the big boys use their muscles sometimes.  I was very impressed with Dwight’s confidence.  Perk has given him a very hard time in the past.  I remember how many of those running hooks airballed in the playoffs.  To see several of them go in (even if the rattled around some) was great.  Dwight’s not going to go 8 for 12 regularly with Boston, but 6 or 7 of 12 is acceptable, and it makes him a weapon.  If he can draw a lot of fouls, all the better.  He doesn’t have to make all of his free throws to be effective.  Especially against teams that have a hard time guarding him, racking up fouls against their big men helps, and puts the rest of the team in a position where they can pick up a lot of bonus free throws.  Big baby is not worth the money he was asking for during this last free agency.  He’s a decent role player, but that is the end of it.  Boston doesn’t have the seemingly endless bench that it did last year in the playoffs.  It helped that they were picking up fouls quickly.  They’ve got a lot of the same players, and Eddie House was again a factor, but they just weren’t all that effective.  This is bad news for Boston, because KG and Allen (and probably Paul Pierce) need some rest.  Jameer Nelson is having short flashes of his brilliance from last year.  I think we’re close to seeing a breakout game from him.  Jason Williams makes me feel like we’ve got a backup that we can trust to run the team in Jameer’s absence, not just rely on for a few minutes of rest for our starter.  I think both of them provide about equal value right now, from what I’ve seen.  Jameer is a little more combo.  Jason is a little more traditional.  It allows for Stan to have options.  Different opposing defenses, different approaches to running the game.  Also if either of them is having an off night, so be it.  The other gets a little more run.  I think this 50/50 or 60/40 arrangement seems to work well for both of them.  It probably also keeps both of them in better shape, since neither is exactly made of steel.  Dwight and Marcin looked great together.  The score shows that the Magic picked it up on offense in the fourth, but I could have sworn it was on defense.  Watching Marcin swat the ball away from KG three times in a row was an absolute joy.  You could see that he was jumping out of his skin to prove himself.  Marcin’s European.  He says he can shoot, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  We’ve seen Dwight knock down jump shots.  If the two of them can work from opposite sides of the basket, I firmly believe they can work together on offense.  I’ll at least say this.  The Magic looked better with Marcin and Dwight on offense than with Vince being out there.  On defense is where it really showed though.  Teams can draw Dwight away from the rim.  He is mobile, and can jump out of the gym, so a lot of times he can still get back, but watching the two of them roaming the paint was just beautiful.  I play PF.  I know what it feels like to have another big presence inside on defense with you, and it’s great.  It is so intimidating to know that one of those guys is going to come flying out of nowhere, and you can’t reliably shoot the ball high enough to get it out of their reach.  As I said before, defense is where the Magic are making their money right now.  Their offense doesn’t look that hot for long stretches.  I propose that the value of Marcin and Dwight on defense, right now, is far higher than their conflicts on the other end of the court.  Nuff said.

I’m off folks.  I’ll be back in the fall, and regularly contributing again.  Take care.