A Quantitative Look at the Orlando Magic's Four All-Stars
For those that follow the Orlando Magic, it's not too difficult to look around and find different media outlets that are commenting on the team's recent struggles. Whether it's about chemistry or something else entirely, new opinions are being formed about the Magic because the team hasn't lived up to the expectations that were set prior to the start of the regular season. However, more often than not, people aren't taking the time to explain why Orlando has been struggling for nearly a month now. Blanketed statements are being made instead of educated and informed ones.
There's a myriad of issues with the Magic right now and unfortunately, there's not enough space to cover all of them in this write-up. Nevertheless, since Orlando is conveniently at its half-way point in the regular season, I wanted to strictly look at the statistics of the team's four All-Stars - Vince Carter, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson - to see how bad they have been performing this year. Opinions may differ, but if the Magic want to turn things around before it's too late, it starts and ends with Carter, Howard, Lewis, and Nelson. Their respective track records indicate that they're more than capable of playing at a higher level than they have been but the jury is out as to whether or not improvement will occur. Still, it's worth looking at the numbers to reveal - especially to those that don't know - partly why Orlando is "off" and playing bipolar basketball these past few weeks.
I coded (bold indicates the player's stats are better this year than last year; italic indicates they're worse) the statistics of Carter, Howard, Lewis, and Nelson to visually emphasize a dip or rise in their numbers from last season to this season.
Click after the jump to see the data.
Overall:
| Games Played | Minutes Played | statistical plus/minus | PER | 1 yr. adjusted plus/minus | net plus/minus | |
| Carter | 34 | 30.6 | +2.88 | 15.9 | +7.77 | +3.6 |
| Howard | 41 | 34.5 | +5.93 | 22.6 | +9.92 | +16.4 |
| Lewis | 31 | 32.5 | +2.36 | 14.4 | -6.32 | -2.4 |
| Nelson | 25 | 28.3 | -0.24 | 13.7 | -9.52 | -5.4 |
Offense:
| Points/Game | Rebounds/Game | Assists/Game | Points/36 | Rebounds/36 | Assists/36 | |
| Carter | 16.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 19.8 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| Howard | 17.0 | 13.1 | 1.6 | 17.7 | 13.6 | 1.7 |
| Lewis | 14.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 16.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 |
| Nelson | 11.9 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 15.1 | 3.4 | 6.3 |
| TS% | eFG% | Total Rebound % | Assist % | Turnover % | Usage % | Offensive Rating | |
| Carter | 50.0% | 43.6% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 8.9% | 27.7% | 104 |
| Howard | 62.6% | 60.5% | 21.6% | 7.9% | 20.0% | 22.5% | 112 |
| Lewis | 56.5% | 53.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 20.2% | 109 |
| Nelson | 51.0% | 48.0% | 5.4% | 30.0% | 14.9% | 22.2% | 105 |
Defense:
| adj. defensive plus/minus | opponent PER | net defensive plus/minus | eFG% allowed | |
| Carter* | -3.08 | 13.3 (vs. SG's) | -3.4 | 47.1% |
| Howard | -4.99 | 15.2 (vs. C's) | -7.1 | 47.3% |
| Lewis | +1.61 | 17.8 (vs. PF's) | +1.0 | 47.0% |
| Nelson | +0.03 | 18.2 (vs. PG's) | +0.4 | 48.3% |
*the Dwight Howard effect on defense has helped to improve Vince Carter's defensive numbers dramatically
It's a bit puzzling that Vince Carter, at least on a per-minute basis, is taking more shots this year with the Magic than last year with the New Jersey Nets. The amount of field goals Carter is attempting normally wouldn't be much of a problem if he was making them at the rate he was this past season, but he's not. As such, Carter has had a bit of a negative effect on Orlando's offense because he's shooting the basketball with such inefficiency. Compounding the problem is the fact that Carter's assist percentage (17.6%) is the lowest it's been since his rookie year with the Toronto Raptors (17.2%) in 1999. For whatever reason, Carter isn't passing the ball enough. These are issues that can be fixed as the regular season progresses but will they? No one knows, at this point.
Up to this juncture, not many people expected Carter to be playing the way he has been playing this year. It's safe to say, after looking closely at the statistics, that Carter is experiencing his worst stretch in his NBA career. Carter's stats were just as bad, if not worse, with the Raptors in 2004. But many observers felt he quit on the team before he was traded to the Nets later that year, where his production sky-rocketed once he played alongside the likes of Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson. Who knows what will happen with Carter, but it's clear something needs to change with him and quickly.
For Dwight Howard, the only numbers that are out of the norm for him on the offensive side of the ball is the increase in turnovers (20.0%) and the lack of field goal attempts (9.2 FGA). Both are partly the reasons why his PER (22.6) is lower this season than it was last season (25.4). Other than that, Howard is shooting with great efficiency, rebounding and blocking at practically the same rate he was last year, and more.
Doubts as to whether or not Howard's busy summer has affected his development as a player, more so offensively than anything else, may have subsided a bit (or may have not) after his performance against the Los Angeles Lakers a few days ago. In short, he was dominant against a team that currently is 1st in the NBA in Defensive Rating. Not only that but Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, players that guarded Howard in single-coverage with success in the 2009 NBA Finals, couldn't stop him. Head coach Phil Jackson adjusted the defensive coverage at halftime (sending double-teams, for example) but the point is, the offensive potential for Howard was on display. As such, a quick - and perhaps long-term - fix to Orlando's woes on offense (as well as the potential for further refinement in his offensive repertoire) is to give Howard the basketball a lot more. Head coach Stan Van Gundy is already considering centering the Magic's offensive strategy more around Howard and it would be smart to do so, given that he's the most efficient player on the team. Yes, Howard has occasional issues with free-throws and turnovers, but it'd be foolish not to get him more involved offensively.
It's key that Orlando improves its balance on the offensive side of the ball but it's also key for the team to move away from a Carter-centric offense. Although the Magic are 9th in Offensive Rating, the team is capable of so much more offensively and is undercutting its ability to do better by allowing Carter to shoot so much. By involving Howard more on offense, Orlando has the potential to improve its efficiency. Whether or not it happens remains to be seen.
Another player that's having - one could legitimately argue his worst season as a professional - an off-year is Jameer Nelson. Nelson is averaging career-lows, most notably, in PER (13.7), TS% (51.0%), and eFG% (48.0%). His Offensive Rating (105) is darn close to a career-low, too. Everyone expected Nelson to regress to the mean this year after his utterly ridiculous shooting display this past season, but he's regressed too much and it'll be interesting to see if he can improve his statistics back up to his career-averages at the very least. Nelson has been playing well here and there since his return from injury in late December, but he's certainly playing nowhere near the All-Star level he was performing at last year. Still, there's plenty of time for Nelson to pick up his play. It wouldn't hurt for Nelson to be more aggressive on offense, considering he attempted as many free-throw attempts as I did during the Magic's unsuccessful West Coast road trip. Zero.
If there's an individual that can't afford to regress on the defensive side of the ball aside from Howard, it's Rashard Lewis. His ability to play above-average defense this past season was one of the main reasons Van Gundy was able to start Lewis at power forward without many negative effects. This year, as the stats indicate, has been a different story. Defensive numbers are still a work in progress but they do a decent job of showing how good or bad a player is on defense. Considering this is Lewis' third season in Van Gundy's defensive scheme, his performance on defense can be analyzed more effectively than normal. Yes, the personnel for Orlando has changed in each of the three years Lewis has been a member of the team but the anchor of the defense - Howard - has not.
The main things that stand out with regards to Lewis' defense is that opposing power forwards this season, as opposed to last season, are a.) much more efficient on offense, b.) scoring more, c.) rebounding more, etc. Additionally, the Magic are 2.4 points per 100 possessions worse when Lewis is on the court. Not good. Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus sheepishly suggested that Orlando should take a look at starting Ryan Anderson and the numbers certainly do make a compelling case for him.
All in all, none of the Orlando Magic's four All-Star players are playing at the levels they were this past season (some worse than others), which is mainly why the team is 26-15 and seven games off its regular season pace from last year. For the Magic, improvement starts from within and it begins with Vince Carter, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson. Orlando, at its best this past season, had two individuals playing like legitimate All-Stars (Howard and Nelson) and another playing at a borderline level (Lewis). This season, only Howard is playing like an All-Star but as has been stated before, not at the plateau he was at last year. The Magic's supporting cast has improved and helped to pick up the slack, but unless the team wants aspirations of returning to the NBA Finals this year, it needs its All-Stars to play like All-Stars.
Sooner rather than later.
2 recs |
50 comments
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Comments
Effort
It’s ironic but I saw that faint glimmer of hope when I watched them lose to the Lakers last Monday. For the first time in several games, that’s when I saw the team playing with a sense of urgency. Dwight was more aggressive, Lewis was hitting shots and most of the players were playing great ball. They have the talent, they’re just not being consistent with the effort. They only show their hunger when they face the top teams. They need to have that same drive every game if they want to turn things around.
Effort is part of the equation, but hard to quantify, huh? Usually you can just see it.
“I do not have a metric for consistent effort, so that wasn’t on my checklist for improving the Magic.”
~Bradford Doolittle from Basketball Prospectus, in the article linked by Eddy.
Optimist "Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
Pessimist "A team that hasn't won a thing, littered with players who haven't won jack, giving us the self-satisfied routine. Uh-oh." ~Kelly Dwyer
Realist: "To me, call it what you want, it doesn’t matter. We’re just not playing well." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jan 20, 2010 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Enjoyed
I completely agree about Dwight Howard and his involvement in the offense.
He's doing little shimmies. Jump hooks with the left hand, jump hooks with the right hand. - Brandon Roy on Greg Oden
REC'd
Great breakdown! I like the coding. IMO, using greater-than and less-than make it hard to see how much of an improvement or fall off we are looking at, but I know showing 08/09 data against 09/10 data is a wall of numbers, so I like the way you brought out the severity of the changes in your analysis.
The John Denton article from yesterday shows Van Gundy is looking in the same direction.
``Coach (Van Gundy) sat [the 4 All-Stars] down the other day and told us that it was on us to get the team going,’’ Carter said. ``Rather than having some long meeting to talk about it, I like that he just brought us together and told us point blank. We know that this team will only go as far as we take it.’’
Optimist "Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
Pessimist "A team that hasn't won a thing, littered with players who haven't won jack, giving us the self-satisfied routine. Uh-oh." ~Kelly Dwyer
Realist: "To me, call it what you want, it doesn’t matter. We’re just not playing well." ~Stan Van Gundy
I agree with Stan
We need our CORE players to play better. VC has a lot going on, battling an injury and slump. Best way for him come out of the slump is drive the ball and take higher percentage shots, but he is injured,and he is trying to avoid contact.
Meer-Drive the ball- He looked quicker on Monday, hopefully that continues.
Shard- ATTACK!! On offense and Defense.. I think his lack of attempts has affected his defense.
D12-You know!! FEED THE BEAST
FEED THE BEAST!!!
Twitter Account
by Wmillion on Jan 20, 2010 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I didn't want to pummel people with numbers.
I tried to do the best I could to keep it concise.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Our offensive struggles start and end with Carter
Last year we ran an in and out offense. quite simply, we’d dish it to Howard he would unleash the beast on whatever victim was attempting to defend him. Or is he was doubled we would most commonly get an open 3. However Vince Carter ruins this system because of the volume in which he dominates the bowl. His plethora of questionable shots has left the rest of the team without nearly enough shots to find a rhythm leeding to less points per game and field goal percentage.
VC needs to follow our offensive structure and pass the ball.
by milner406 on Jan 20, 2010 12:00 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
i rec'd this just because u used the word plethora!!!
Never trust a fart
by AB's triple double on Jan 20, 2010 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd because I KNEW Carter would be a type to dominate the Bowl.
Mic check!
"Memphis then used a pick-and-roll to get Conley free and he drove past Shaquille O'Neal for the go-ahead layup."
by BS Patrol on Jan 20, 2010 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'ing because I want to see a comment highlighted in green and want to do my part
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
Yes, Carter does need to follow the offensive structure and pass the ball.
Right now, Vince isn’t doing that.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
shooter or playmaker?
funny thing is vc was brought here to be a playmaker (passer/shooter) and to be a go to guy in the 4th quater in tight games which is what hedo did. but something got mixed up and vince has been feeling like its his responsibility to carry the team all the time by shooting. agreed, if he can’t adjust his play, it won’t work with him starting.
great write up btw, you made the statistics very palatable.
by mental magic on Jan 20, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, E
Great instrument for analysis… and on the SPOT too!
I think everyone is on the same bus in that the Magic HAVE to play with outmost URGENCY, FOCUS and HEART.
It’s obvious that the Magic HAVE to re-evaluate Lewis at the 4 as well as Anderson. I think he’s the playerof the future, the future Lewis… only BETTER. Already at 21, he’s SHOWN great DEVELOPMENT in many aspects of his game; deadly moves to the basket with excelent footwork, steady, consistent rebounding, especially on the OFFENSIVE end, often NEGLEGTED by Stan. His DEFENSE is slowly coming along and is nos acceptable. I doon’t say replace Lewis; play Anderson at the 4 (more natural too) and move Lewis at the 3.
I still can’t figure out WHY does Nelson keep MISSING Howard at the post, repeatedly signaling to him that he’s ALONE, or one-on-one DEEP in the post, to NO AVAIL. You can SEE it on the videos; Nelson SEES him, but CHOOSES to pass, mostly to Lewis, or Carter, THEN FORCES the BAD pass, resulting in a turnover…
Also, Nelson is DELIBERATELY REFUSING to pass to Redick, even when he’s alone in the fast break. Redick looks for EVERYONE, plays for ALL team mates; Nelson does NOT. PLUS… soooo many turnovers and lapses on defense.
Mmmm… I wonder… Would Redick make a BETTER, more EFFICIENT Point than Nelson. He’s a BETTER passer, and certainly a BETTER defensive player, with just enough firepower… even better 3-point shooter too! Plus, he’s 5’4": With him and Pietrus on top, THAT seals the door on ANY penetration by those pesky fast Pt guards that have given us such a hard time. Just a thought… for open discussion…
PGs would blow by Redick
But his defensive numbers at the 2 are quite respectable. I still would like to see him with the first unit.
Optimist "Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
Pessimist "A team that hasn't won a thing, littered with players who haven't won jack, giving us the self-satisfied routine. Uh-oh." ~Kelly Dwyer
Realist: "To me, call it what you want, it doesn’t matter. We’re just not playing well." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jan 20, 2010 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Redick at point guard is an intriguing idea, but wouldn't work in theory.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
This reminds of when I said (this past summer) Jameer would shoot at or near his %’s last season…
>.<
I can use his injury as an excuse, but that’s still stretching it. The % drop is ridiculous.
I’m going to eventually make a fanpost about Jameer detailing how he used to shoot midrange and attack the paint much more last season, especially during his many, many brilliant games last season. He never is really a FT’s guy, but he used to shoot the midrange (at a league best, by far, 55% clip) and penetrate into the paint for layups and pass outs so much more last season. I suspect his knee is holding him back a lot, but I don’t know if it’s getting better or not. Jameer is a scoroer, he says so himself, so he should be looking to be that PG that scored way too much when the opposing coaches do the post-talk after the game.
Injuries are always a legit excuse.
Doesn’t change anything as far as wins or losses, it’s part of the game, but it is certainly expected that when a player is injured, his numbers would be down. Now, the one thing that is separating Jameer’s slow play from Vince’s is that at least Jameer is playing (mostly) smart. He’s not trying to do too much, thankfully.
I’m willing to believe that part of Vince’s slump is injury-related, but if that’s the case, either rest or play within your limitations, dude.
The way he's playing, Carter is hurting the Magic more than helping.
As for Nelson, you’re right, he’s playing within himself and is having good games periodically. For Jameer, it’s going to take time for him to get back near his optimum level, but I think he can do it.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
The difference between Jameer and Vince is that Vince has consistently demonstrated he can play at an all-star level.
Jameer never has. Both have been limited by injuries and both have been playing like idiots (Vince with shot selection and Jameer with turnovers). But based on each’s body of work through their careers, it would seem much more likely that Vince could get back to being a top 15 player in the East than Jameer. Assuming both got healthy and played smarter. You have to recognize that except for about a 55 game stretch, Jameer has been closer to a mediocre player than an all-star player. If he gets healthy and plays like he did in 2006, he’s still not close to being all-star caliber. So it’s difficult to have many Jameer can be a top player again aspirations, even when thinking about best case health scenarios. And I am not an optimist with either one of these guys — Vince cause he’s old and Jameer cause he’s injury prone (feel free to explode now).
by CaliFlorida on Jan 20, 2010 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
No, we're both beating our respective dead horses.
So it’s not worth it.
One of Stan Van Gundy's big issues is.....
This season, reputation does not equal production.
So do you go with the stats? Or do you continue to wait for slumping players to break out of their slump? Probably a little of both. Difficult decisions when egos are involved.
Optimist "Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
Pessimist "A team that hasn't won a thing, littered with players who haven't won jack, giving us the self-satisfied routine. Uh-oh." ~Kelly Dwyer
Realist: "To me, call it what you want, it doesn’t matter. We’re just not playing well." ~Stan Van Gundy
Good call.
Van Gundy has a tough job in determining when to go with production over reputation.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I'm thinking that if we continue to play Vince, then Ryan is a better fit
One of Vince’s skills is being a facilitator in the pick and roll. He is excellent in the pick and roll and (from memory) seems to get a number of assists this way during his career.
Problem is that the Magic’s starting 5 does not have many PNR players. Dwight is the best candidate, but even then it seems like he’s more about setting devastating Picks and not so much rolling (or perhaps no one is looking for him).
Ryan, although a great spot up shooter, is also adept at driving, attacking, and finishing through traffic. This has been on display here and in New Jersey, where he excelled with Carter.
Lewis may be a better pure shooter than Ryan, but I think it’s safe to say that Ryan can “mix it up” a bit more, and is more willing to attack the basket.
Vince is playing poorly no doubt, but I think in an effort to increase his productivity (and thus the team’s), SVG should put him in situations where he’s more likely to succeed. This involves pairing him up with Ryan more (either starting or benching both) and running more PNR and PNP (pop) plays for them.
I've noticed that Vince rarely looks for Dwight on the roll.
Or at least it seems that way.
He doesn't.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
The Magic's starting 5 doesn't have many PNR players?
Dwight, Rashard and Jameer were masterful running the PNR last year. The best play we had in my opinion was PNR with Jameer and Rashard, Rashard slipping out to the top of the key. He would catch it and, depending on how his defender played him, would either take the 3 or get it to Dwight after he established good position in front of the rim if the passing lane was there. This year, the timing has been slow with that, plus Jameer and Rashard haven’t been shooting as well.
Our second best play was Dwight setting the pick for Jameer or Hedo, then he would roll hard. If the defender went under, we’d take the jumper. If he went over the pick, Jameer or Hedo would drive hard and either throw the alley or just throw the ball off the glass. If the shot went in, great, if not, Dwight was right there to clean it up. This year, Vince definitely hasn’t been as willing to pass when he got close to the basket, which is unfortunate considering his lack of athleticism so far. Jameer has been attacking hard lately, and arguably should’ve gotten a few trips to the foul line, but he’ll have to earn the respect of the refs again apparently.
Either way, neither of those two plays have been nearly as effective this year as last year. Staples of our offense last year, inefficient plays this year.
The Magic have pick & roll players, problem is Carter isn't passing the ball enough.
Vince is using the pick & roll to score rather than to facilitate the offense for the other players.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
*to TRY to score
fixed it for you. :-)
Optimist "Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
Pessimist "A team that hasn't won a thing, littered with players who haven't won jack, giving us the self-satisfied routine. Uh-oh." ~Kelly Dwyer
Realist: "To me, call it what you want, it doesn’t matter. We’re just not playing well." ~Stan Van Gundy
by magicfaninTN on Jan 20, 2010 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
Of course.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I believe that our problem is coaching
Maybe i’m a bit cynical, but it seems to me that SVG is offensively inept at coaching this group of players. He’s seemingly clueless as to how to get players who do not fit into the 1 in 4 out system, involved on offense (hence why Bass gets so little playing time). I understand that players get hurt and even go into prolonged slumps, but FOUR all-star/all-star caliber players productions all down? To me, thats SVG NOT knowing how to incorporate different offensive strategies to fit the skill set of most of our new guys. I know it’s not all his fault, nor am I saying that he is a bad coach; However, when you make as drastic a personnel change as Otis has made to this squad, and the head of that personnel (SVG) is unable to show you any progress or fruition with superior players, then it would seem to me that if things remain as they are, then he would have to go. Another criticism i have of Van Gundy is his inability to discipline players on offense. When players jack up 3’s when your up and have the lead on a regular basis, that does not mean that players are deviating from the game plan, that means that jacking up 3’s IS the game plan. Bottom line is SVG either has to do a better job of coaching, or he has to be replaced.
by Dome of the Rock on Jan 20, 2010 3:55 PM EST reply actions
Van Gundy isn't the issue.
Not one person is to be blamed for where the Magic are right now. It falls on the team and the team needs to pick it up, that includes the coaches and the players. If people want to find out why the four All-Stars have been struggling, give a serious look at Carter’s numbers and notice that he’s had a parasitic effect on some of his teammates. Again, I’m not blaming Vince for Orlando’s ails but it’d be foolish not to recognize how he has been playing and how that’s been affecting the rest of the team. Out of the four All-Stars, you could argue he’s playing the worst. Problem is, no one expected that to happen before the season started.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
understood
Again, I do not hold the opinion that this is all his fault. On the other hand tho, I believe that if Carter, or poor shooting, execution, hustle etc.. is the problem, than SVG needs to be held responsible for coming up with better solutions to these problems. With all of that said, out of ALL my gripes, my biggest pet peeve is how SVG does not demand, insist and make it absolutely INCUMBENT for all the other players to give Dwight the ball, and CENTER the offense around him even if he is shooting poorly. Under double digit shot attempts is unheard of for a player of Howards caliber-period. And as I mentioned earlier, when players play undisciplined on offense as often as the Magic have, that means that the undisciplined play is not a deviation of the game plan, but it IS the game plan.
by Dome of the Rock on Jan 20, 2010 4:17 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with both points.
SVG needs to make Dwight the dominant guy on offense. He’s by far the best player, so live and die by him. And yell at Vince every single second to quit playing like a moron.
by CaliFlorida on Jan 20, 2010 11:20 PM EST up reply actions
I certainly blame Vince a great deal for Dwight's regression on offense.
Don’t really blame him though for Jameer getting killed repeatedly on defense, shooting poorly, turning the ball over, and getting injured. Or for Rashard rebounding poorly, missing shots he used to make, or being a way easier matchups for opposing power forwards.
by CaliFlorida on Jan 20, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
and magicfaninTN hit the nail on the head
SVG always seems to go with reputation rather than production or taking a chance or making a change. Which is why he played jameer over A.J. in the finals.
by Dome of the Rock on Jan 20, 2010 3:58 PM EST reply actions
See, that's tough.
Van Gundy had to take that chance because Nelson was a perfect foil for the Lakers’ defense. Johnson wasn’t, even though he was playing relatively well in the post-season. That’s a lose-lose scenario for Stan.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
We weren't beating the Lakers with Alston and AJ playing.
Jameer at least partially replicating the success he had against them in the regular season was our best chance. Of course that didn’t happen, but I don’t blame Stan for trying.
Why not?
Are you telling me that Jordan Farmar and Derrick Fisher are better than A.J. and Rafer? The reason we lost the finals was NOT because of our inferiority at the point. It was because the Lakers had the personnel to deal with our two nearly 7 foot forwards, and we had no idea how to adjust.
by Dome of the Rock on Jan 20, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions
And Nelson could have helped in that adjustment, not Alston or Johnson.
It’s in the past; no point talking about it when there’s more important things to worry about.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
What separated us from them in the games in the regular season...
Was the fact that we had an advantage at point to combat their overall advantage in the frontcourt (and at shooting guard). As was seen, we could not win the series going into it as a toss-up at PG. The addition of Jameer possibly close to his All-Star level was obviously too tempting for Stan and Otis to pass up (both of them had to sign off on it). Obviously it didn’t work, and clearly in hindsight, no one should’ve expected the dude to come in and play like he was before the All-Star break. But you can’t act like Jameer playing or not playing was the difference in the series.
I'm not saying it was
I just believe that if we had stuck with the lineup that took us to the finals, we would have won more than one game. Its whatever tho, I just want us to succeed NOW. My whole point is that if Otis was willing to overhaul the roster in order to get over the hump, and SVG can not make things happen, then maybe he should consider an overhaul of the coaching staff as well. Or, maybe patience is in order. I feel that the reason why it is hard to live with a mediocre regular season, is seeding in the playoffs. Can we really get through Boston and Cleveland again the way we did last year? Not to mention that the lower tier teams in the East are playing more competitively and would love to knock off the defending ECF from the first round a la Golden State vs. Dallas. I do not want us to get booted from the second round (or first), and I simply want us to look at all viable options to make sure that does NOT happen, thats all.
by Dome of the Rock on Jan 20, 2010 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
championship run while rebuilding?
such a drastic roster change by any other team would be looked at as a rebuilding year with modest expectations but because the magic were in the finals everyone expects them to perform the same or better. several magic players have pointed out that this is a completely different team. i think the all-stars production will improve if they are given time to gel. poor stan has a brand new jigsaw puzzle to figure out. i think the magic will finish the year well.
I hope your right
I take that back….I hope AND pray your right…
by Dome of the Rock on Jan 20, 2010 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
Lewis needs to figure out how to play now he's off the 'roids
Jokes!
But seriously, he isn’t playing anywhere near as well as he was last season. Maybe he’s taken the veteran drop off the cliff and hasn’t realised it yet, maybe he can’t get in flow with Carter hogging the ball, maybe we’re not calling plays for him…whatever it is, he needs to figure it out.
Carter’s in a similar boat – he thinks he’s still Michael Jordan Jnr, but he’s not. He can still be effective but he needs to adjust his game, Grant Hill style, to make the most of what he’s still got.

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