Looking for the Orlando Magic's Best Frontcourt Combination

by jonnichols on Jan 19, 2010 12:00 PM EST in Guest Posts Comment 18 comments

Orlando Pinstriped Post Photo / Bruce Maddox

In my last article for the Orlando Pinstriped Post, I compared the Magic's two great backup power forwards, Ryan Anderson and Brandon Bass. As I mentioned last time, the Magic are blessed with a number of great frontcourt players, a luxury most teams would love to have. Beyond Anderson and Bass, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Marcin Gortat could all be considered above average players for their position (and they are paid like it). The challenge for the Magic's coaching staff is finding playing time for each of these five players while also mixing and matching in order to find the combinations that are most effective. Today I'm going to go through the play-by-play data of the 2009-10 season and see how the Magic have fared with each frontcourt combination.

Howard, of course, is the centerpiece. He receives the most playing time and is necessary for the Magic to be successful on both offense and defense. To start this study, I decided to see how the Magic did when they paired Howard with each of the three power forwards (Lewis, Anderson, and Bass). Below is a table listing the Offensive and Defensive Ratings (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) when the Magic played Howard and one of the three power forwards:

Howard and Anderson appear to have formed the best duo thus far this season. The Magic's Offensive Rating when they're both playing is a sizzling 120.5, and their defense is almost as good. Surprisingly, when Lewis and Howard have been paired together, the Magic's offense has been rather pedestrian. We'll see if this result lasts throughout the season.

Generally the replacement for Howard is Gortat. How do the Magic perform with Gortat and one of the three replacements?

The first thing you should notice is that the Magic's numbers with Gortat in the game instead of Howard are considerably worse. I'm hesitant to blame this all on Gortat because during my game tracking this year he's looked very good. Whatever the case is, we can see the Magic have performed best this year when Gortat has played alongside Bass. Among those pairs including Gortat, only that pairing has recorded a higher Offensive Rating than Defensive Rating.

Does this data indicate the Magic should maximize Howard's minutes with Anderson and Gortat's minutes with Bass? Perhaps, although we shouldn't be totally certain just yet. It's still early in the season, and as I mentioned earlier, this study has ignored the other 3 players on the court. These numbers will be revisited as the season progresses.

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I would love to see them move Shard to the 3 and try the combo you suggested.

by pnut78 on Jan 19, 2010 12:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

It could potentially work in spurts.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 19, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’d be interesting to see when Anderson was on the court with Howard, was Carter on the court as well. Carter has turned into a 3-point shooting, jump shot taking black hole and whenever he’s on the bench, Lewis seems to increase his productivity. I’d be interested in seeing Lewis at the 3 Anderson at the 4 and moving Barnes/Peaches to the two. Carter can come off the bench, or just stay there for all I care.

by telka on Jan 19, 2010 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good question.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 19, 2010 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I just want to say this:

No MATTER what combos (front court or back court) that we draw up, all of them will work if Dwight hits that mid-ranger consistently. Last nights jumpshots looked sugar sweet and I hope he builds up the confidence to shoot them more against the lesser teams in the league. if he ever learns how to hit that shot consistently like Amare’ has, the NBA is in trouble.

"Blue and white...ignite...BOOOM! - Dwight Howard

by magic12ball on Jan 19, 2010 2:19 PM EST reply actions 4 recs

Rec'd

Good Guys Don't use the reply button

by stanleygoober on Jan 19, 2010 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, like I said before, Howard's second quarter performance on offense was extremely impressive.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 19, 2010 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Watching D12 hit those two jumpers last night was surprising… but sweet! Hope it’s a sign of more to come.

Shortest off-season ever!

by rightnow! on Jan 19, 2010 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nice to have you verify my FanPost numbers, Jon. :-)

Though I agreed with your numbers (including that Gortat pairs best statistically with Bass), I still believe that after watching last night vs. Lakers that Rashard will get back to form, his numbers will improve, and it merits keeping him in front of Anderson at PF.

Anderson just looked like he was getting owned by Kardashian (errr…Odom) in the 4thQ. But that is just one subjective observation in one game. Who knows what kind of candy Lamar had at half-time.

But, I agree with the comment above and would like to see Lewis tried at the 3 with Anderson at the 4.

After watching last night’s game, I’d like to see us try:

Howard – Anderson – Lewis – Barnes – Nelson
and
Gortat – Bass – Carter – MP – Williams

That 2nd unit has numbers of 150 Off Rtg/73.33 Def Rtg = +76.66 Adj plus/minus in 8 minutes of play. Details at here at basketballvalue.com)

Not saying we stick with either of those lineups long term (‘cause I was JJ on the floor, too), but I’d like to see them experimented with a little more. I think Lewis could deal with defending Pierce, Artest, Marvin Williams, and even Michael Beasley at this point. LeBron may give him problems, and if so, we switch Lewis back to the 4 versus CLEV, but LeBron gives everyone problems so Lewis may surprise us.

If we are looking for winning combos, isn’t it worth experimenting a little before the break?

"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith

by magicfaninTN on Jan 19, 2010 2:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

*want JJ on the floor

"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith

by magicfaninTN on Jan 19, 2010 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Lewis would have success defending any of those players you listed.

I could be wrong, of course, but it can’t be understated how below-average Rashard is on defense at SF.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 19, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I find it interesting the offensive rating with Howard and Bass on the floor together

It’s been said that the combo of Dwight Howard and Brandon Bass on the floor at the same time just won’t work because of Bass’s inability to hit the long-range jumper and the three pointer, and that it would make it more difficult for Dwight to operate down low, since there would be another defender down low guarding Bass, which would give Dwight less room.

The offensive rating, though, is higher with the combo of Howard and Bass (111.0) than it is with the combo of Howard and Lewis (106.4), even though Lewis is a three point threat and draws his defender away from Dwight.

Of course, I realize that Howard and Bass haven’t played many minutes together on the court at all this season, and that if they played more minutes together, that offensive rating number would probably be lower.

Still, interesting results, nevertheless. And that 120.5 rating with Howard paired with Ryan Anderson is eye-opening. Thanks Jon, for your research.

"Orlando Magic... 2009 Eastern Conference Champions"

by Mike from Illinois on Jan 19, 2010 8:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I won't lie, there's a legit argument for Anderson to start over Lewis.

Ryan has been flat-out been playing better basketball this year than Rashard.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 19, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Esp on the 10 games Shard was out

And better Off rebounder aswell

by zakchi on Jan 20, 2010 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Jan 20, 2010 3:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Especially since, though I can't find these stats anywhere,

I think the difference in the first quarter is even more in Anderson’s favor.

I am the world's best basketball player! *

* Among those with no skills whatsoever

by JayPar16 on Jan 20, 2010 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Tonights game with Indiana… WE NEED THIS BADLY: MUCH MORE THAN THEY DO. Indiana has lost the past 2 games, but the Magic have lost 3 and 7 out of the past 9!!! NO WAY, they want this more than us!

The magic HAVE tp get going NOW!!!

Lets see: Redick at Point, Pietrus at Shooting guard, Anderson at the 4, Lewis at the 3 and Howard at center, the anchor to our Team, with Barnes subing for either Lewis or Anderson, and JWill coming for JJ.

This is good enough for a 110 – 92 whipping and the start of a 5-game winning streak!

by manny55 on Jan 20, 2010 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs