Give some time to test Rashard Lewis at SF?
The Off-Day Open Thread: What Do You Want to See From the Orlando Magic in the Next Few Games? got me thinking and rather than just leave a comment there, I'm putting my thoughts here.
With the extra two PFs we have in the stable this season (Brandon Bass & Ryan Anderson), I'd like to see the Magic test Lewis at the SF spot for enough floor time to get a good look at this option before the trade deadline. Yes, I know about Lewis and SF defense, but 82games.com shows in the limited time he got this year and last at the 3, he did okay.
In 2008-2009 (Rashard Lewis '08-'09 at 82 games.com), Lewis played 3% of the team's minutes at SF (I'm not taking time to look up those full lineups, W & Ls, etc). 95.3 team OFF rating/87.2 team DEF rating. His per48 ppg, rpg, apg, etc. between his time at SF and time at PF are almost identical.
In 2009-2010 (Rashard Lewis '09-'10 at 82 games.com), he's played only 2% of the team's total available minutes as the SF. 97.2 OFF/89.3 DEF.
The problem? Small sample size.
Switching data sources and looking at all of Rashard's 5-man units this year at basketballvalue.com runs into the same problem. The sample size is too small and the lineups too varied (only 4-5 minutes per any given 5-man unit where Lewis plays with another PF) to figure out very well if Lewis at the SF spot works, and if it works who the other four players need to be.
So, I propose giving the following units a try for a quarter or more (total floor time) against at least two different opposing teams:
#1 Nelson - Redick or Pietrus - Lewis - Anderson - Howard, or
#2 Nelson - Redick or Pietrus - Lewis - Bass - Howard
with 2nd unit, JWill - Carter - Barnes or Pietrus - Anderson or Bass - Gortat (to try Carter off the bench, 'cause Lewis and Carter together on the wings probably hurts Orlando defensively).
I know this will negatively impact somebody's wing minutes (Carter, Pietrus, Barnes, Redick) and I haven't thought much about how to rotate (this is more of a platoon approach). [Edit: I guess if Van Gundy insists, there is probably some way to rotate (using lineup #1) with Lewis moving to the 4 when Anderson sits on the bench and putting Barnes or Pietrus in at the 3 with Anderson for those times when Lewis needs a breather. That way we can play the stretch 4 offense for all 48 minutes. And, I know that lineup #2 is what everyone expected when we signed Bass, so maybe there are legit reasons showing up in practice for why we've not gone to it during games. Edit #2: Actually everyone expected Nelson-Carter-Lewis-Bass-Howard. Edit #3: "everyone" means those who might not have been familiar with Van Gundy's commitment to the 1-in/4-out/stretch-PF system.] Trade idea below the jump.
In the back of my mind, I'm wondering about a trade (but that's not the only reason to try Lewis at the 3):
- Carter & Bass to Washington (WASH gets PF, needed SG, and a year off of Jamison's contract)
- AJ & Mike Miller to Chicago (CHI gets cap room for 2010 and 2-for-1 SG and PG with expiring contracts to replace Hinrich's combo role)
- Antawn Jamison & Kirk Hinrich to Orlando (ORL gets defensive/passing PG and Jamison fits next to Howard, and a return to last year's tall front court. Nelson scores with 2nd unit and kills other teams' backup PGs)
Hinrich/Nelson/Williams
Pietrus/Redick
Lewis/Barnes
Jamison/Anderson
Howard/Gortat/Foyle
Well, for what it's worth; since you asked.... Discuss.
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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This trade does not improve the Magic's perimeter scoring
Our frontcourt is not the problem
I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?
You think perimeter scoring is the thing that needs improving?
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 18, 2010 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
Something needs to improve, whether it's offense or defense.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Very interesting trade idea..
Not sure of the merits of putting Hinrich over Jameer, but I like the defensive pressure the backcourt can suddenly have if Hinrich and Pietrus are in together. Trade makes reasonable sense to all teams too.
Just not sure of the whole put Rashard at SF and bring Jamison in for PF. That’s a whole other debate, and I can’t decide how that would work out. Maybe if Jamison was a 6th Man behind Rashard, but we’d be leaving the backcourt bereft of Carter with JJ, Barnes, and MP manning all the 2 and 3 minutes. I would prefer Hinrich plays backup PG. And pretty much all rotation scenarios have two very efficient players out of minutes, J Will and Ryan. But still a very interesting trade idea.
I only see J Will running out of minutes with this.
To preserve Jamison for the playoffs and to keep his motor for the next 2 years, I’d play him less than Washington has. So, I still see Anderson getting 12-15 minutes of burn. With this post-trade lineup, I’d just about platoon the 2nd unit and maybe load Howard with more minutes than Gortat (and probably more evenly split time between Jameer and Hinrich). With this team’s depth somebody is losing time, just the way it is. (see also Brandon Bass/Marcin Gortat with current lineup). And yeah, I could be happy flopping Hinrich and Jameer so Jameer starts.
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 18, 2010 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
If there’s a way to still get Ryan some minutes, Id be ok with this trade, or generally getting Jamison. Hinrich may have to play 2 anyways also, so there’s a way to get J Will in there too.
IMO, Washington probably doesn't do this trade.
And Hinrich has really fallen off as a 2 guard. I guess he does okay in stretches, but if he were in ORL, I’d want to avoid it.
Oh, and I’ve found Bulls’ GM Paxson saying he will hold onto Hinrich if all he gets is salary dump for him and not an on-court asset…..which is fine if the Bulls want to shoot themselves in the foot.
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 19, 2010 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Paxson isn't the general manager anymore. It's Gar Foreman.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Good catch.
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 19, 2010 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Same motivation tho, I bet Hinrich could be had for pretty much only expirings, and he could really help the Magic on the court. Im starting to warm up to the idea if the Magic get Jamison, tho I still don’t think it’s likely or anything. Jamison and Dwight would be a pretty sick duo, the Magic have to had thought about it seriously atleast.
Eh, I'm open to Jamison but not Hinrich.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I stand by my opinion that Rashard should see minutes at SF but he shouldn't start there.
If you start a frontcourt of Lewis and Jamison, the Magic get worse defensively. Even with Hinrich.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Yea, I think it’d make sense to start VC at SF and play him against other SF’s, or have Rashard play more minutes at SF instead, so he and Ryan can get out together more and Bass can have consistent contributions. I’d prefer to start VC at SF and have Barnes and Pietrus focus on opposing SGs to improve defensively. Im not so sure how Rashard would do defending 3’s but like the chemistry and offense it should bring by getting Ryan and Bass in there more. I just don’t know if it’s worth starting Shard at 3 for, and Im only saying it because of how bad this slump is going.
See, this is why I'd like to see it tried on the court.
The numbers point the other way, so I want to see it. In the 39 minutes Shard has been at SF this year, those units are an average of +6.58 (106.58 vs. 100 OFF/DEF rating). But the same sizes are sooooo small.
To get the above #s, I took all the 5-man units from this season that have Lewis, a center, and another PF to assemble the list of Lewis at the 3. See here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AgZvYHyE1zECdFYwMmZ1aThfMWNoeGhzNTFlRk5jV3c&hl=en
So, you’d say Shard is slower than Hedo? ‘Cause Shard at the 3 with Jamison or Anderson at the 4, it looks a lot like last year’s [winning] team. And without the trade, sliding Lewis to the 3 is a better option to try to replicate last year than putting Ryan at the 3 (by far). SVG has tried Lewis at the 3 with Nelson 0.05 minutes all season!
Annnd, Lewis’ per 48 numbers for this year at 82games are higher at SF than PF….again, small sample size.
Annnd, Ryan’s numbers at PF have been better than Lewis so far this year. So, what do you do with that? IMO, last year worked pretty well for the Magic. Howard-Anderson-Lewis-Pietrus-Nelson looks a lot more like last year than Howard-Lewis-Barnes-Carter-Nelson (‘cause Carter is chucking instead of setting up Lewis, et. al) and therefore should be tried. (Yes, I know Shard can’t handle and distribute like Hedo, so what? Try it anyway.)
Carter can either produce or suck it up when he’s benched. Somebody needs to change their game (Carter) or change their place in the lineup (ie. Carter again, or Pietrus defense #s are> Barnes at SF).
And while I’m mentioning last year, imo, one of the things we are no longer doing very well is closing out on 3pt shooters. We are getting skunked at our own game.
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 18, 2010 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
*sample
pardon the many typos
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 18, 2010 11:59 PM EST up reply actions
Well, in a much more realistic scenario (and to your joy), someone suggested to me that the Magic should take Jameer out for a month or so. He argues that Jameer is coming back too slowly because his speed is not catching up yet and severely hurting him on defense. More worrisome is that he argued the knee injury comes back to full health on it’s own accord, whether or not you’re playing on it, and in fact, the chance of Jameer getting seriously re-injured has never been higher than now so he should be taken out for a month for more rest and low level rehabbing so that his knee can get fully better.
Ill add that it makes a lot of sense and I bet the Magic will think about it if Jameer’s knee doesn’t start feeling better
Not to co-op this into a Jameer thread....
…but at least he’ll get the All-Star break off.
"We'll figure it out. The sky's not falling." 'Has anybody ever won the championship in December?' ~Otis Smith
by magicfaninTN on Jan 18, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Nelson has been playing relatively well, as of late, so I don't think him sitting out is necessary.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I cant decide. You know who really looks like they need a break? Vince.. He hasnt look confident at all the past few games. I think he’s hurting from the shoulder.
Yeah, Carter needs to sit out or have his minutes reduced.
I write for Orlando Pinstriped Post and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Could Carter be hurt more than he is letting on?? Could that be the reason that he is not driving to the basket and taking the hits?? Or is it just that someone told Vince that he was not allowed inside the 3 point line when he is on offence?? I think VC needs to sit on the bench and let his shoulder heal up more!!!! JMO

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