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Poll: The Orlando Magic's Window Of Opportunity

3QC programming note: Due to extenuating circumstances, there won't be a Fact or Fiction post as originally planned, today. However, there will be one tomorrow. 

 

It's no secret that the Orlando Magic are fully in 'win now' mode, as has been exemplified by the aggressive posture ownership has taken this off-season in constructing a roster that is built to compete for a championship year in & year out. 

 

With the Vince Carter trade, it's clear that the Magic have an immediate two-year window to win a title with him theoretically (Carter's contract runs guaranteed for two seasons). After that, all bets are off. It will be up to general manager Otis Smith to re-tool the team on the fly (perhaps as soon as the 2010-2011 season), once Carter leaves Orlando. Fortunately for Smith, a number of players on the squad are young so retooling shouldn't be too difficult of a task. The core (Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson) will stay relatively the same, barring any unforeseen circumstances, but surely some roll players will come and go as time surpasses. It'll be very interesting to see what happens with the Magic between now and then

 

The question for the community is a simple one and is attached to the poll.  

 

Let your thoughts be known. 

Poll
How confident are you, as an Orlando Magic fan, with regards to the team's chances of winning an NBA title in the next two years?
100%
141 votes
75%
161 votes
50%
82 votes
25%
21 votes
0%
6 votes

411 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 45 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Depends how well Otis retools in 2-3 seasons, but I expect them to get a title in that time and then retool to open that window again since the Dwight-Nelson-Lewis core is young.

by derekk on Sep 8, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions  

Well, the Dwight/Jameer portion of the core is young, Rashard .. not so much.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Next year I have no idea...

Considering all the big FAs that could move around, but I assume that we would still be contenders.

by josh99 on Sep 8, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions  

25%

And more precisely I’d say maybe 15%, simply because I feel that any of the Cavs, Celts, Lakers, Spurs, Magic (or the field) have as good of a shot. Plus now that they wont sneak up on anyone I’m curious to see how they do

by cambi1 on Sep 8, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions  

A realistic percentage.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lets sip, not chug, the Kool-Aid people

We got flat beat by the Lakers last year (we could claim to have let a couple of games slip away but championship teams don’t make those mistakes), needed 7 games to finish off a severely injury depleted & tired Celtics team, and our biggest advantage against the Cavs (Dwight’s dominating inside presence) is somewhat muted by Shaq doing his best Perkins impression next season. And, no one knows how well VC, Bass, Barnes & Anderson will fit in the lineup.

Yeah, the Lakers took a step back by swapping Ariza for Artest, its anyone’s guess as to how much cartilage Garnett has left in his knees, and the Cavs are merely patching their holes. But, a lot of events would have to occur in succession for the Magic to have any more than a 15% chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy in the next two years.

by Madhouse on Sep 8, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions  

You say no Kool Aid and then you offer this alternative?

We are 10 deep. We took a 0 time All Star and replaced him with an 8 time All Star.

I like our chances because of SVG and his Rabid commitment to Defense, and how he has gotten Dwight to buy into it.

More than anything, Diwght’s natural progression will be the most impressive thing about 09-10 Magic.

As I eluded to above Vince, Bass, Barnes and Anderson will fall in line. Dwight preaches DEFENSE. Dwight seems like a very nice person and I think that is because most people find it wise to not upset a man of his size. Hence Vince and Anderson will have no problems “fitting in”(playing D) Just as I am sure Dwight will have no problem clearing out For Vince with under 2 minutes left in a close game. This Magic team is going to be devastating. They all like each other and they have now had a “taste” if you will, of the Finals and I do believe they have a 50% chance of hoisting in next 2 years.

Pick O the week: USC 45 Ohio State 13.

by BS Patrol on Sep 8, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

The Lakers took a step forward.

Artest is clearly a way better player than Ariza — better by a wide enough margin that any chemistry concerns are irrelevant. But we’ve taken a step forward with Carter for Turkoglu, and an even bigger step forward with the return of a healthy Jameer Nelson. That’s two steps. And do you remember how crucial Nelson was to us beating the Lakers twice in the regular season? That’s the killer matchup in the Magic/Lakers situation, and we didn’t have it.

I don’t think Shaq can do anything on defense that Ilgauskas didn’t do — they’re both huge, immobile, and have limited defensive instincts. On the defensive end, they’re the same player. (By the way, I’m perplexed by this continuing assertion that Perkins somehow shut down Dwight in the postseason. Yeah, he averaged “only” 17 points a game — he also averaged 16.6 rebounds. Dwight did his job in that series, no question.)

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 8, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yep, Shaq is not scary and Jameer coming back has the potential to break things wideopen.

And it’s true Dwight had an excellent series against Boston. A few games, he absolutely destroyed Perkins.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 8, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

But Lebron is sooooo scary

Lebron going off is my biggest fear in the East.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 8, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

LeBron is terrifying, no doubt.

But I don’t think he — or ANYONE, with the possible exception of Jordan in his prime — could “go off” any more than he did in the conference finals last year. And even with that kind of heroic effort from LeBron, the Cavs still lost, because their supporting cast just isn’t there.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perkins did slow Howard down.

The thing about Kendrick is that he has the strength to push Dwight further from the lane. How many times did Howard throw up wild hook shots that had almost no chance of going in? A lot.

The key against him, and really, the key against Shaq, is to use Dwight in the pick & roll.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Lakers may be a better team next year

but it will have little to do with Artest, and more to do with getting contributions from Bynum & Farmar. Ariza was about as efficient as Artest in the regular season, but much more so in the playoffs (particularly from 3). At this stage in their respective careers, Ariza is also the better defender since Artest has lost a lot of the lateral quickness that made him such a terror on defense (he’s now best used defensively as a 4 in small ball lineups). And Artest has never been one to play well within a system when hes a lower option on the totem poll, so I’d imagine it’ll be fireworks if/when Artest breaks up the highly structured passing-and-spacing of the triangle and starts wildly driving towards the rim without a plan. Moreover, its highly likely that at 24 and with a developing game, Ariza will improve next season, while Artest, who turns 30 in November, will not.

Oh, and Ariza’s not crazy. To wit: only one of those players ruined the fortunes of a 60 win team that was a legitimate title contender, which is why it baffles me that you would consider any chemistry issues regarding Artest ‘irrelevant.’

Shaq, by the way, is like a gazelle compared to Ilgauskus, but thats not what somewhat mitigates the Dwight advantage this time around. Its Shaq’s strength. He can force Dwight to fling those wild hook shots from 5 feet outside his comfort zone, a la Perkins. No one on the Cavs last year, not Ilgauskus, Varejao, Wallace or Hickson, could do that. And lets not gloss over the 20+ point deficits we racked up on our way to some of those wins, not to mention the defensive abilities of both Parker and Moon, who would seriously reduce the efficiency of VC & Lewis.

And as far as Dwight’s series against the Celtics, lets be honest here—he played more minutes than in the regular season, averaged far fewer points with a lower shooting percentage, and grabbed a lot of rebounds against a Celtics frontline that featured Perkins (shoulder injury), Big Baby Davis, Miki Moore & that pudgy redhead—he should absolutely have destroyed that frontline and he didn’t. Next season he’ll likely face Perkins, Garnett, Wallace & Davis. Do you think his efficiency is going up against that lineup?

I’m all in favor of optimism, but stating that there is a 50% or more chance of the Magic winning the title in the next two years requires a willful suspension of all reason. If we had brushed aside Boston & Cleveland 4-1 and pushed the finals to 6 or 7, I would be more hopeful.

by Madhouse on Sep 8, 2009 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ariza was more efficient than Artest was during the regular season.

Here. Both were below-average, but Ron Ron was considerably worse.

Parker won’t do anything to Carter, he’s regressed defensively. Moon is a different story.

I pretty much agree with nearly everything else you stated, however.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

23/22/3; 23/17/3; 17/14/5; and 16/22/3 --- Enough Said.

Combined with the defense he played, Dwight did just fine against Perkins and crew.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 8, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dwight had his moments but he didn't do "just fine".

Here. Notice the overall dip in production for Dwight Howard against the Boston Celtics.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 9, 2009 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

Dwight got his nubers but perkins made D12 work way to hard for them, and frustrated the big guy too. Plus rondo gives us fits as well and that hurts D12’s game more.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 9, 2009 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yup. You're correct.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 9, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rondo maybe.

Troublesome as he is under all circumstances, I think he was way more troublesome because we didn’t have Nelson. In the one game last season where Rondo and Nelson both played, Rondo had 9 points on 4-10 shooting and only 2 assists. Obviously that’s no kind of sample size, but it makes sense that Nelson would give Rondo trouble — he’s a strong defender, and one of the few PGs who has the speed to keep up with him.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, maybe.

We did score only 80 points in that game. (But I have to say I love the Vince Carter-Ray Allen matchup for the Magic… as much as I hope the Magic don’t start running isolations, that’s a siatuation where a few well-timed isos could really break things open.)

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, he scored fewer points. He also attempted fewer shots.

His shooting percentage was still well above 50%. All that line says to me is “Dwight wasn’t where the shots were during this series”.

Meanwhile, his rebounding was well above his season averages.

Not sure it’s relevant — the Celtics’ frontcourt looks different this year, between the return of Garnett and the addition of Wallace. But I’ll take a 17/17/3 line from Dwight any day — he doesn’t need to carry the scoring singlehandedly, he needs to be an offensive threat and a master of defense/rebounding. And he was both of those things vs. the Celtics.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nope, better than fine.

He rebounded the ball exceptionally, blocked shots, wrecked the Celtics frontline with foul trouble, beat the Celtics up physically, played good defense, and still shot 55% from the field.

Your conclusion in your link that Perkins can “effectively handle” Dwight Howard is suspect. Perkins may be one of the better matchups in the league against Dwight but he ain’t “handling” the big man.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 9, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree to disagree.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 9, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Artest "ruined the fortunes of a 60 win team that was a legitimate title contender"?

I hope you don’t mean the Rockets. The Rockets had one fluky successful season, but they were never a title contender. Yao is good but usually injured; McGrady has no on-court sense and is usually injured; same for Alston, when he played for them. It’s true that Artest was a chucker last year, but he was a chucker in an offense composed largely of chuckers. (The few players on that team who AREN’T chuckers — Yao (when healthy), Scola, Landry, Battier — are so outstandingly efficient on offense that they make up for it.)

Basically, my point is that Houston’s offense has been a total disaster for many years now. So if a guy goes to Houston and his offense turns disastrous, I’m less inclined to blame him and more inclined to blame Houston.

As for Ariza, he’s a poor man’s Shane Battier: solid defense, good shot selection and decision-making, very limited offensive game. Houston already has the regular man’s Shane Battier.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was referring to the '04-'05 Pacers

Ariza is not the poor mans Battier, btw. Battier’s perimeter D ( in his prime) was better than Ariza’s is now, but he was never the open court finisher Ariza is either.

by Madhouse on Sep 9, 2009 4:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Maybe, but he has a three-point shot.

Still not convinced Ariza has one of those. I don’t ever see Ariza becoming more than a 12-15 PPG scorer. And if he’s NOT a volume scorer, I don’t think his defense/passing/etc. are enough to justify the contract he’s got.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Magic needed 7 games to finish off the Celtics because of matchups.

As for the Cavaliers, people completely ignore that Rashard Lewis is THE player that killed them in the playoffs, yet all the attention is geared towards Dwight Howard & Shaquille O’Neal. I’m skeptical as to whether or not Cleveland addressed an answer for Rashard; they may have.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

100%

No doubt they will be there and be holding the trophhy

by Murmolaid on Sep 8, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Unless he's been keeping himself in Nash-like shape

I can’t imagine a 35-year VC being worth 14.9 mil in 2011-2012. By that time, with roster turnover and Dwight’s ETO hanging over the franchise in the summer of 2012, I would imagine the team would have to add some players to placate Dwight and keep contending.

by Madhouse on Sep 8, 2009 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Damn, that's a tough question.

I’d err on letting him go, simply because of the price tag in correlation to the team’s payroll.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tough Decision...

But maybe if VC really wants to continue to contend at that point, they could decline the option and then re-sign him for a more realistic figure, like maybe the full MLE; unless, of course, he was the Finals MVP…

by pianolady on Sep 8, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that's an idea.

Good thinking.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 9, 2009 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

0.44%

Assuming we have a 20% chance this year (each team of the big 5 has an equal chance)

And assuming we have a 30% next year, our only free agents are Reddick, Foyle, Johnson, and possibly Barnes, none of who are greatly important and we have a young team who will continue to improve. In contrast the Cavs have Shaq, Lebron, and Z expiring the Celtics are aging and have Ray expiring and the Spurs are aging.

by josh99 on Sep 8, 2009 9:41 PM EDT reply actions  

For what it's worth, I voted 25%.

I think that’s a fairly realistic percentage for the Magic, considering the circumstances.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 8, 2009 9:47 PM EDT reply actions  

25% THIS season seems reasonable.

I’d go with something more like 40%, but I’m an optimist. (Plus I overestimate Jameer’s importance a bit…)

But remember the question is two seasons. If the Magic have a 25% chance this season and a 25% chance next season, that adds up to a 44% chance total. A 25% chance over the course of two seasons equates to a 13.4% chance per season. And I think we’d alll agree the Magic’s chances this year are better than 13.4%.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

All that matters is that Orlando has a chance, whatever percentage it may be.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 10, 2009 3:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

your math makes my brain hurt

25% +25%=44%
ok I guess

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 9, 2009 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Here's how it works.

If the Magic have a 25% chance of winning the title in ’10, they have a 75% chance of not winning the title. So you multiply their chance of not winning in ’10 (75%) by their chance of not winning in ’11 (75%), you get a 56.25% chance of them not winning in either year. Which leaves a 43.75% chance of them winning in one or both years.

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 9, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Almost exactly the same as mine...

Except I did 20% this year and 30% next year.

by josh99 on Sep 9, 2009 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

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