Fact or Fiction: Jameer Nelson is the Key to the Orlando Magic's Season
by Ben Q Rock on Sep 7, 2009 8:00 AM EDT
in Commentary
92 comments
Fact or Fiction presents both sides of key issues the Orlando Magic will face in the upcoming NBA season.
The Orlando Magic's season is in Jameer Nelson's hands.
FACT: Nelson isn't the Magic's best player--that'd be Dwight Howard--but he's their most important. He's the key to their success, the straw that turns the drink, the engine that makes them go, and so on.
Some people would have you believe that Hedo Turkoglu played that role for Orlando last year. Blame it on the recency effect: Nelson played poorly in the NBA Finals after several months off due to shoulder surgery, while Turkoglu led them in scoring. Fact is, Nelson became an All-Star last season, and was among the leading candidates for the Most Improved Player award before shutting it down after just 42 games due to a torn labrum. Turkoglu, meanwhile, saw a drastic drop-off in both production and efficiency from his Most Improved campaign in 2008. And since the Magic obliged Turkoglu by moving him via a sign-and-trade deal to the Toronto Raptors, he's not really relevant to this discussion.
In Nelson's 42 starts prior to the shoulder injury, the Magic went 32-10, with a per-game point differential of +8.09, which would have challenged the Cleveland Cavaliers for the league's highest had they maintained that level of play. In the 40 games split between Rafer Alston and Anthony Johnson starting at the point, Orlando was a solid 27-13, with a +5.225 differential, which would have ranked just behind the Portland Trail Blazers for 5th in the NBA last season. In a vacuum, that's not so bad. But that's the difference between what some observers dubbed a Team Of Destiny led by the league's MVP and an also-ran in the league's toughest conference. A significant difference, I contend.
Nelson's an ideal point guard for the team Otis Smith has assembled. He can play at any tempo, make smart decisions, sink jumpers from anywhere, and get to the rim when he absolutely has to. And if he were to miss an extended period of time this season, the Magic would be stuck with Johnson or Jason Williams running the show. At least if Howard goes down, Orlando can count on Marcin Gortat, who's nearly as good a rebounder and defender as Howard, to provide quality minutes.
Picking a most important player from a team boasting four recent All-Stars in its starting lineup isn't easy, and maybe we're splitting hairs here. But given the Magic's frontcourt depth behind Howard and Rashard Lewis, and given how Nelson's absence affected them last season, he's our choice.
FICTION: Yeah, Nelson's absence affected the Magic alright. It affected them all the way to the NBA Finals. They can deal without Nelson. Vince Carter is enough of an upgrade over Turkoglu to compensate for Orlando's hypothetical struggles without Nelson. And Smith has trade chips in case he needs to acquire an emergency point guard, as he did with Alston last year. Johnson, Williams, Adonal Foyle, and J.J. Redick have expiring contracts. Smith also has a $5.4 million trade exception from the Turkoglu sign-and-trade deal, which would allow him to absorb a contract up to that value without parting with a player; a future draft pick could suffice.
Listen, Jameer's cool and everything, but this team begins and ends with Dwight Howard. Gortat's a top-notch backup center in this league, and could start for a lot of teams. But subtracting Howard, who anchors their league-best defense and their offense? That's too much. The Magic will only go as far as he takes them.
Verdict: My opinion won't surprise any longtime readers of this site. The Orlando Magic's season is indeed in Jameer Nelson's hands. They could weather the storm without Howard, but as we saw last year, we can't say the same for them without Nelson.
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Centers are the hardest positions to fill.......BUT
Even though the league has an over abundance of point guards ( minn. drafted 5 this year ) I agree that the point guard is what makes or breaks your team. You have to have a player smart enough to see the court and action as it develops. Then that same player has to make the right play that requires alot of athletecism and confidence. All of this must be accomplished over and over during an average game, the point guard has the ball nearly 50% of the time due to the nature of his job. Luckily when we drafted D12 we also got a steal in Jameer Nelson providing our much needed floor general.
Yes the Magic go the way of Jameer.
But it looks like we are in confident able hands.
Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson
by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 7, 2009 9:25 AM EDT reply actions
Dwight will show up and dominate -- no question.
The key though is for Jameer to be the player he was last season and stay healthy. Both of those are question marks. So I say fact.
Slightly off-topic, but you mention it in "Fiction" -- JJ Redick as expiring???
I know that JJ has a QO offer next season, but isn’t there a pretty big (like 3x this seaon’s salary or somthing) cap hold on the team that holds his rights until he signs with another squad (or signs the QO or extension), even if they waive his rights? Just wondering. If so, he’s not exactly a desirable expiring contract.
PS. Where did the $5.4M number come from for the TPE?
im sorry...
but if we lost Howard there would be NO way to replace him. I do agree that Dwight’s backup is much better than Jameer’s backup. The truth is that in order to reach our goal of a championship the entire team is going to have to stay healthy. I sure thats the reason that Otis stacked the bench this year, so that our all-stars can get some rest throughout the season. Yet another reason this magic fan is thrilled that the Polish Hammer was retained.
In the grand scheme of things, losing Jameer would be more of a blow than Dwight.
That’s not to suggest that Nelson is a better player than Howard, because he’s not, but the disparity in the quality of the respective back-ups is what, ultimately, makes the difference in the discussion.
Marcin can fill in for Dwight. Anthony, to be frank, can’t fill in for Jameer.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
No way
Dwight over Jameer 10 times out of 10. On this Magic team or any other team that’s ever existed.
I disagree, only because of who's backing up who.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Jameer and Gortat vs Rafer 2.0 and Dwight?
This would be an interesting question to poll the league’s GM’s on. I’m taking the most dominating big man in the game every time.
think about it!
ur saying we can do without the reigning defensive player of the year? With a team that needed more help on the glass? i am confident that if Jameer has an all star caliber season, and stays healthy, that we are gonna win the ’ship. however, without howard, Jameer could outplay chris paul this season and we would be hard pressed to make it out of the 2nd round. hes an all world center, the most difficult position to fill in the game.
exactly
If Dwight goes down, the Magic at best are competing with the Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks of the world for consellation prizes. If Jameer goes down, the Magic can still be a finals team and a championship contender, as we’ve seen.
But that's not to say Jameer isn't the biggest key to this season.
At this point, you can take Dwight showing up and dominating as a given. Jameer, well, not exactly. If he does though, the rest of the league will be running scared. So, he’s the biggest key in my mind.
The Magic wouldn't be screwed if Dwight were to be hurt.
Again, that’s because of who’s backing him up – Marcin.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
You don't know that for sure, though.
Can’t say either way until it happens.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Cue the conspiracy music!!!! Investigate and find out that 76ers and Magic player who conversed about the team being better without Dwight!!!!!
Id only agree with E maybe.. because Gortat is damn good. The backups argument is legit.
And because of the fact that I bet if I looked up who had the most wide open shots and just shots in general, the PGs Alston and AJ did. Replace that with the Top 3 shooting PG now… Yea, getting a picture?
I understand the bit about not really knowing before you see it.
So you have to say the same thing about Gortat. Let’s see if Gortat can really play 40 minutes a night, for 6, 7 games a series, anchor a best in the league defense, control the paint, get opponents in foul trouble, and physically wear people down before assuming he can step in for Howard and keep the Magic playing for a championship.
Personally, I don’t see it. Gortat is a nice, above average center. To say he can step in at center for an at worst top 5 NBA player ignores history and the importance of a truly great center. Jameer playing well is the key, but Dwight Howard is the most important and irreplaceable player on the roster.
Thing is, Gortat can.
And if you doubt the numbers, there’s been countless studies which show that per minute statistics translate when the player in question gets more and more playing time.
Paul Millsap, Michael Redd, Ben Wallace, etc.
I don’t disagree that Dwight Howard is ultimately, the most important player on the Orlando Magic roster but I still think Marcin can step in more than adequately, if necessary.
I can’t say the same thing about Anthony Johnson or Jason Williams, which is all that I’m trying to say at this point.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
The assumption is another PG would be acquired if Jameer goes down again
And there is virtually no evidence to say Gortat can be a championship caliber center in the ways I mentioned earlier.
I doubt that'll happen, your assumption I mean.
The reason why it occurred last season was because the Magic had 2 PG’s. Not the case, now.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Not sure if it would or wouldn't but the Magic would have trade pieces.
Gortat, TPE, Redick, etc.
are you crazy
think about what your saying! Marsh, although a very exciting up-and-comer, for the moment is limited to just that. we cannot rely on him to carry us. Dwight is an all world center, unlike any other ALIVE. In other words, irreplacable! Did you not get the memo, VC is on the team,m he knows how to pass.
I'm not crazy.
If necessary, Gortat can step in and fill in for Dwight. He’s done it before and there’s no doubt in my mind that he can continue to do so.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
he did it for one game!
hes not capable of stepping up for 82 games. hes got heart, but does not have the athletic ability to lead the league in blocks, rebounds, and/ or defensive presence. now in tandum with a player like howard, the two could be historical.
Who are you calling "Rafer 2.0"?
Jason Williams? Anthony Johnson? Some hypothetical player we might or might not trade for?
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
Except...
…are we sure a PG as good as Rafer will be on the market? Or that we can get him? And don’t we have to factor in what we would trade for him? I mean, we’re probably not getting a guy of Rafer’s caliber without dealing Gortat. (Or possibly Bass, or maybe Pietrus.) All of whom are expected to have roles to play of this team.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
look what we did with out j. nel last year.
he is very important to the team but i think if we lost carter it would hurt much more than nelson. with carter,j.will & a.j. we can handle the ball just fine. with out carter i dont know about this team sure we would be good but e.c. champs good i dont think so. imo j.nel is the man but we need him far less than we need howard.carter,lewis. for me carter is the key to this years team.
A valid argument; one could surmise losing Vince Carter would be a devastating blow, too.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Magic - A Picture Of Balance - Potentially
The Magic were differant than a lot of teams in the way they have had players that contribute in a balanced way. last years players were like that. There starters particularly. Expect for Howard most of the starters were within a few points of each other.
This year Carter and Howard have the potential of being higher scorers, because both players are likely to get double teamed more then the other players. This makes
our team doubly dangerous from last years team. Stan, I’m sure will find a way to exploit the talents of Carter/ Howard, after seeing it in practice.
Jameer as one of the quicker P/G’s in the league will have more oppurtunities to either go to the hole or shoot the three. or pass.
What’s going to blow other teams strategies will be how to use lewis/Bass/Barnes. If we Can come up with a good pick and role strategy for these guy’s. We will have boocoo
weapons against anybody.
The 1995 Houston Rockets were like that. A real hard team to cover.
I would love to see the practices. Go Magic!
I don't believe that point guards are all that important in general
The Magic made it to the finals without Jameer, the Lakers had freakin’ Derek Fisher at the point, and teams with legit point guards like Steve Nash and Devin Harris didn’t even make the playoffs.
For the Magic, it begins and ends down low. Jameer is really just another guy with a good 3-point stroke and some slashing ability. A lot like Vince Carter. And Rashard if he felt like driving more. And Matt Barnes.
I like Jameer, but he’s not the key.
Point guards are important, depending on how a team is constructed.
The reason why the Magic and Lakers were able to make it to the Finals was due to excellent front-courts. However, to simply say having an All-Star caliber point guard isn’t important would be a disservice to Tony Parker and others, players that have led their teams to championships in relatively recent years.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
You can make that argument, but...
You’ve got to have someone with great basketball smarts and a handle involved. Fisher fills that role. You can’t measure that stat. Rafer had it as well. As a matter of fact, some of the worst teams in the league last year lacked it (Sacramento, Minnesota, Washington). That guy doesn’t even necessarily need to initiate the offense, but it needs to run through him.
I’m willing to believe that Vince could do it, but I thought Hedo might be able to as well, and it just didn’t work. Those guys do their best work as facilitators that work off the ball at the initiation of the offense. Furthermore, do you want to trust that responsibility to a guy in his 30s who hasn’t done it yet in the NBA? The Magic can easily still go far wihout Dwight. Without Jameer, unless we make a great trade, the team’s offense won’t be able to recover.
Remember Derek Fisher cost the Lakers two regular-season games against the Magic...
…because Jameer was able to exploit him. And I’m still convinced that, if we had had Jameer healthy in the Finals, he would have done the same thing to Fisher again.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
I 100% agree
If Jameer Brings it like his 42 games before shoulder Fail, I would say we will secure the number 1 seed.
I personally think he will come back to earth. But I Am waiting to be proven wrong…
Do not try it. I will call you on it every time. No one likes the smell of S*it, especially Bull S*it
Jameer will come back to earth, somewhat, but it won't be a steep decline in the numbers.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
AS long as his 3% stays same I will be fine
Some timely 3’s last year….
Pick O the week: USC 45 Ohio State 13.
I doubt Jameer will shoot 45% from three, again. That's .. impossible to duplicate.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
The key is for him to shoot pretty close to his percentages last year
A fall off of 5% makes him a pretty average player.
If Nelson shoots 45% and 38% respectively
he won’t receive any serious all star consideration and is not that much of a difference maker at point guard. He is a scoring point guard predominately and seeks to get a lot of his points from the perimeter. If his shooting slips, Jameer’s value does as well — big time. There just aren’t many other phases of the game that he can affect.
Who cares if he's an All-Star or not? I don't.
News flash, shooting 40% from three isn’t average. That’s above-average.
Shooting 45% from three is ridiculous.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I know all of that, the point is it's crucial for Jameer to not regress to his career averages
which are right around the range of 45% FG – 38% 3pt.
Jameer’s career adj. +/- you posted a few days ago indicates pretty well what type of player Jameer is at those percentages. Regardless of whether 45% – 40% is otherwise average, above-average, whatever, league wide. The point is that for Jameer to be the difference maker the Magic are looking for, he can’t fall off too drastically from his shooting numbers a year ago. A couple points in each category is probably about as much as the team can live with without having to look to another player to carry a larger than expected role.
It makes no difference if he's an all-star or not
What matters is if Jameer is shooting well enough to be that level of a player. If his shooting numbers fall back about 5% in either category, he is not an all-star caliber player and deservedly won’t receive much consideration. The Magic need Jameer to be right around that level of a player this year.
Again, who cares if he's an All-Star.
His numbers will regress back to the mean because of the nature of his shooting statistics, but I don’t think the drop-off will be dramatic.
The addition of Vince Carter will mitigate that.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I suppose I'm just using all-star to generally describe a certain level of performance.
And stating that with Jameer, playing at that level is critically tied to his shooting percentages.
I see what you're saying.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
yea, ur messing up your view of those stats, im saying worst case scenario that nelson is such a good shooter inherently that a moderate drop for him would still be moderately above average to other PGs. Check his TS% out too. And there is a whole list of intangibles missing from Nelson by you like how he runs this team at the perfect speeds and knows the perfect spots to penetrate and kick out to which guy and shoot here, etc. One criticism I read somewhere that Id admit is that Nelson doesnt bring his energy and focused aggression 100% of the time. He has looked like it was going through the motions at times, but Iv seen this predominantly along time ago as Nelson does play very aggressive for the most part now, the improvements of Nelson himself, and SVG giving him 1) the least starter minutes so Nelson can keep attacking fully and 2) pushing and motivating him, running the offense thru him (See Turk, MIP; Nelson, MIP frontrunner* *=injury).
5 season career: 46% " " career 3land: 38%
2 seasons ago: 46% 3 land: 41%
last season: 50% 3 land: 45% (2nd in league, 1st
(3rd in PGs) in league for PGs)
Other stats for last season:
PER: 20.66 (5th in PGs) TS%: .612 (3rd in PGs)
His worst season was his 3rd, 3 seasons ago, with 43fg% and 33 3pnt%.
So, I make a case that he will actually average about 50% from the field again. 46 for the career makes 45 laughable, a drop would be 46-48. He’s inherently too good a shooter and picker of good shots, he had his breakout year last season (after another solid season & a strong playoffs the yr before), its staying near or above 50% territory. Except for his 3rd season and rookie year, he always shoots his 3’s at 41% clips or better. An average of his last two would be near 43%, but once again, I expect it to be around 44-46%. You dont shoot and make 2 3’s out of 4.3 attempts every game with a flukey shooting year. Thats incredibly high 3’s attempts for that.
I also am only expecting a marginal drop off
I think it’s probably the case that Jameer has simply become a better shooter at this point in his career — through hard work, training, etc. But don’t confuse the fact that to be successful the Magic need him to be an elite shooting pg — not average or above average.
That’s why I say fact to Jameer being the key. I think of the 4 all-stars, Jameer starts the season with the most question marks surrounding him.. If he maintains his level of production from last year, the Magic will be in excellent shape.
he hurt his shoulder not his legs
Last I remembered J.Nelson ate teams up with his QUICKNESS and ability to penetrate, leading to uncontested flip shots or wide open or dwight dunk. If you dont have a fast PG or a awesome dribbler who can penetrate than the offense bogs down. It is super important for teams that want to play the game we play. Thats what makes being us so hard, you have to have a great PG and several 3 shooters.
I believe we are going to see a MORE focused Jameer and a better rested tesm with more minutes being spread out. At least more than last season.
Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson
by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 7, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The key is who helps the team most.
Which is still Dwight Howard imo.. But after that, yes, Jameer Nelson is the most important. You got to tell me you were watching the Magic when Jameer was running it before you say its not that big a deal. Yes, Fisher led the Lakers but he is very experienced. Others included Billups, Parker, Rondo and Williams in lesser scale too. The PG is important, esp. when your team has a All Star PG. Nelson is the best shooter and slasher, shown by his %‘s and APG. He led the Magic to the best league record. Not too mention how invisible Turk was when Nelson was running it and the Magic were 32-10. The season is in Nelson’s hand and how well he comes back into the playoffs, if he can shoot and run the team as well as last year, Ill be waiting to order the championship t shirt already.
It's no coincidence that Jameer's breakout year helped the Magic reached another level as a team.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I haven't.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
For any team to win a championship, a lot of dominoes have to fall in line
The season isn’t riding on any one player in particular. Basketball is a team sport. If someone makes an error, it’s up to the rest of the team to cover that player. Nelson is the starting point guard, he’s the orchestrator, so he plays a bigger role in that. But if Dwight goes 3-12 from the foul line, the bench gets demolished in the second quarter, and Rashard can’t hit a three, how much can Nelson really do? The Magic are loaded. If Nelson plays like shit, Orlando can still win. If DWIGHT plays horribly Orlando can still win. Three all-stars is enough to get it done in this league, so you can’t put anything on one guy.
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
How come Rafer couldn’t get more APG than Nelson? He was considered a better passing PG by many of us. I noticed that recently and thought it was interesting.
Well...
The assist stat is just as dependent on who you are passing to, as it is on who’s doing the passing. Jameer’s quickness and shooting/penetration threats cause defenses to collapse, which in turn causes the recipients of his passes to be WIDE OPEN most of the time. They get higher percentage shots, therefore converting more, thus causing him to get the assist. Being a good passer doesn’t matter as much as being able to draw defenders is, which is why people who claim Alston is a better PG than Jameer have little to no basketball knowledge.
I think I can count on one hand
the number of alley oops I saw Alston pass to Howard last season, including the playoffs. I mean, c’mon, how can you not get those in to Dwight with his leaping ability?!?
Man is the only non-linear computing device still mass-produced by unskilled labor.
Yea, Hedo and Nelson are the master alleyoop throwers, I think Nelson had more of those too, but Id have to look it up if thats even look-up-able lol
Has almost everything to do with chemistry, more than anything else.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
It's hard to tell who the key is for the Magic
Reason being, the Magic play team ball like no one else in the league. They’re balanced. Thing is, they can survive a hit like losing Nelson because they’re a good enough time to fill in the gaps. The same is even true with Howard – look at game 6 of the Philly series. (not exacly a big sample size, but still) Courney Lee went down with an injury and the Magic didn’t skip a beat in playoffs.
Maybe there just is no one key. We’re just not like the Cavs or the Lakers who have that obvious centerpiece.
Or maybe… SVG is the key!
SVG is as important to the franchise as Dwight, Jameer, or any other player on the team.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Nelson key for the Magic
The first part of last year season, Nelson got away from Mr Dribble, made better decisions, and really pushed the ball up the court. However after he returned, he was one the reasons that the Magic lost the Championship. Rat and Rave Gundy was the main reason for his brilliant decisions. Now this year depending on which Nelson shows up will certainly be a factor in how the Magic will end up. We can just forget Nelson guarding anybody. His Grandmother could do a better job. So what is left? Pushing the ball up court, making better decisions, and scoring. I just hope he can do that. Then he would be the key for the Magic. Magic has the talent but must be pushed in the right direction or the right buttons must be pushed. I’m looking forward to this year.
I agree with you in that I'm looking forward to the season
I disagree with you regarding Nelson’s defensive ability. He’s not a “stopper,” but he’s average-at-worst.
Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Brandon Bass: "I just play hard."
Rat and Rave Gundy????
What is that? Some sort of pun? It doesn’t even sound like SVG’s real name. Even if it did, how is it supposed to be funny? Because SVG rat’s and rave’s? Oh, I think I get it.
Anyhow, I basically agree with you. Nelson seems to be way more effective when he’s aggressively attacking. A lot of times when he’s playing bad it looks like he’s being lazy and just slow.
Uhh, Jameer Nelson was an above-average defender last year. Statistically, of course.
So you’re wrong in that department. Not sure what ‘Rat and Rave Gundy’ is supposed to mean.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
except for in the finals
and the whole year b4 that (and if you say he forced himself back prematurely or that fish is a seasoned vet) guess what… you could have gaurded those threes, and ive never seen u play ball!
Nelson vs. the Lakers
The reason why I think Jameer Nelson’s play will be most important for the Magic are two reasons:
1) As we learned with Hedo Turkoglu last year, Most Improved players can sometimes head back down to earth. I do not expect Nelson to come out as hot as he did last year. But, that does not mean he will fall below an all star level. I think He will still be in the debate for an all star spot, but he has to prove it all over again. The depth behind him is not great and it is clear he is the perfect point guard for our system. Besides that, he is going to play the most minutes because of that lack of depth.
2) Remember in the regular season, Los Angeles really struggled with quick point guards like Nelson. They had problems containing Luther Head against the Rockets and if there is one chink in the defending champions’ armor, it is that Derek Fisher is a step slow as their starting point guard. Clearly not having Nelson at 100 percent hurt Orlando in the Finals as Stan Van Gundy struggled to manage his point guards in the series. Nelson proved last year he can be a game changer offensively and a pesky defender. Orlando needs him to play well and manage all the new guys effectively for a successful season.
Philip,
The Curse of the Big Aristotle
http://bigaristotle.blogspot.com/
The Lakers had problems containing Aaron Brooks, not Luther Head.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Correct. Sorry for the factual error. The point is that they struggled with young, quick point guards and not having that (Rafer Alston five years ago might have been sufficient) definitely cost Orlando in the Finals.
Philip,
The Curse of the Big Aristotle
http://bigaristotle.blogspot.com/
by philrsquared on Sep 14, 2009 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Nelson to increase APG?
Statistically, VC and Hedo pretty much get 4-5 APG, but Hedo was more playmaker and is gone and VC is new. VC will end up scoring more than Hedo’s 16.8, and maybe even more than his APG, but I think VC’s ability of being so dangerous and having all 3pt shooters who can attack too, may up Nelson’s 5.4APG to like 6.2-ish APG. Nelson doesn’t scream true point of course, so Id only guess maybe 6-7 per? His true value is the accuracy unmatched by other PGs and the way he runs the team and its results, but still on an individual basis, would be cool to see Nelson get that 6 APG or 7APG plateau on top of the crazy %’s and good PPG. He also had 1.2SPG and could deftly repeat that too.
I don't see it.
Not that Jameer can’t do it, but I don’t see it.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I think
Carter’s assists will go up a smidge too. While his scoring will decrease slightly, he’ll prolly still score more than Turk did.
Sorry, off topic…
Man is the only non-linear computing device still mass-produced by unskilled labor.
This is somewhat related because Hedo and Jameer had 4 and 5 assists on average. No one else was a significant assists contributer, thus opening the door for VC to fill it and Nelson to increase his possibly.
by derekk on Sep 8, 2009 4:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I doubt VC's assists total will change dramatically.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
A smidge is not dramatic.
It’s just an unquantifiable small amount…
Man is the only non-linear computing device still mass-produced by unskilled labor.
I know, I'm just speaking in generalities.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Jameer proved just how invaluable he was last season
2007/2008 Playoffs, Jameer put up enough bricks to build the new arena. Even when he is effective on the offensive end, he does not defend the opposing guards. Because of Dwight’s presence, Jameer is usually left unguarded on the offensive end, and because of Jameer’s height, some player for the apposing team is usally left open on the defensive end of the court. * 2009 Playoffs*, Magic reach the finals without Jameer, lose the finals with Jameer. There is no backup player for Jameer because the Magic feel he can not handle the pressure of a competent PG fighting for the position. AJ is superb for 20 minutes, but he can’t be effective playing much more than 20 minutes. Don’t get me wrong Jameer is a talented player, but at 5’10", maybe 5’11", he has not shown that he is capable of defending bigger guards, especially in post season. I do agree that PG is the weakest position for the Magic. Jameer will either prove he is the all star many believe he is, or the Magic will need to replace him. The Magic have at least 80 games to figure it out. The Magic are more talented than they were last year. The only question mark in my mind, is Jameer good enough to take them all the way to an NBA Championship? I sure hope so. I am looking forward to an exciting year. GO MAGIC!!!!
I doubt the Magic will need to replace him. He's the franchise point guard.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
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