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Looking at Adjusted Plus/Minus for the Orlando Magic

If you've been a reader of Third Quarter Collapse for a while, you'll know that this site enjoys utilizing advanced statistics to better grasp and understand the game of basketball so that accurate opinions, predictions, projections, etc. may be opined. Credit should always go to the number of statisticians linked to the NBA that provide the general public with valuable stats. It's their hard work that makes a post like this possible and in this case, credit should to go professor Stephen Ilardi (implementor of adjusted plus/minus) for taking the time to calculate the copious amount of data. 

 

The numbers below are the adjusted plus/minus of each Orlando Magic player currently on the roster, sans Adonal Foyle and Jason Williams. What's different about these statistics, compared to the ones you'll find at Basketball Value, is the fact that they are tabulated over 6 seasons (2003-2009). Now, that may sound insignificant or pointless, but rest assured, this is information is greatly valued. Why? Well, because it nearly eliminates the amount of "noise" or standard error embedded within the stats. Meaning, that 1 year adjusted plus/minus is open for more flukes and what not than 6 year adjusted plus/minus. Therein lies the value in this type of information. 

 

So, with the backdrop set, here are the numbers:

 

Rashard Lewis 4.70
Dwight Howard 3.94
Marcin Gortat 3.16
Vince Carter 2.28
Ryan Anderson -0.67
Jameer Nelson -0.72
Mickael Pietrus -1.58
Anthony Johnson -1.96
Matt Barnes -2.48
J.J. Redick
-2.53
Brandon Bass -4.47


Good: For the people still doubting Marcin Gortat's value as a player and thinking that general manager Otis Smith engaged in some buffoonery by re-signing him, Gortat's adjusted plus/minus is another example of how good of a center he is. Granted, the sample size is relatively small (835 career minutes) and there's a bit of standard error associated with the number, but even then, Gortat does make a positive impact on the basketball court. As such, it may seem odd that Howard's number is slightly better than Gortat's, but that's partly the reason why. Nevertheless, that's why other metrics are used to encapsulate a player's value, to decipher whether this is an exception "to the rule."

 

Bad: Jameer Nelson's adjusted plus/minus isn't good, but that speaks more to the type of player he used to be than the type of player he is now. Given that this past season was the first where Nelson played like an above-average player and a legitimate All-Star after four years in the NBA, his stat is more a reflection of the past than it is of the future. That should be noted when wondering why Nelson's adjusted plus/minus statistic is particularly low and slightly negative. Don't be alarmed, yet.

 

Ugly: Out of all the numbers, Brandon Bass doesn't rate well according to adjusted plus/minus. Part of the reason is that Bass doesn't do many "really good" things, aside from playing above-average defense and shooting efficiently from the field (Offensive Rating of 113 last year). But, as was stated for Howard and will be stated for Bass, that's why other metrics are used to encapsulate a player's value. Nevertheless, and this applies to Ryan Anderson, Matt Barnes, Vince Carter, and Jason Williams as well, it's certainly possible for Bass to perform better in a new context and situation. As such, his adjusted plus/minus number is more relevant to his time with the Dallas Mavericks. Things change, stats change. That's the reality.

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imo

this is a bogus way of measuring cause most have not been in this system for long or at all. if they played 6 yrs. in svg system those #s would be diffrent. i would like to see these #s after some of these players in svg system for a while. we are only a few weeks from camp cant wait.

by magicman775 on Sep 3, 2009 10:23 AM EDT reply actions  

I disagree.

The point isn’t to measure these players in SVG’s system, the point is to evaluate these players in the overall spectrum of the NBA and such. There’s less standard error in this type of information.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 3, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Depends on what you're trying to analyze.

If we’re looking at the impact of a player in a coach’s system (something you brought up), then sure, six year APM is too long of a window. But if we’re simply looking at the basic worth of a player, then six year APM is valuable because of the fact that the standard error in the metric is minimal.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 4, 2009 6:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

This metric is flawed

It may account for ‘noise’ but as the post alludes, it doesnt account for the maturation of a player over time—Dwight is a far more efficient scorer now than he was when he first entered the league (less than six years ago). Similarly VC was probably more efficient 4-5 years ago than he is now, purely due to age. This metric would be more useful if it rated a player during a particular plateau in his career, whether that plateau is on the up or downside of his career.

I would be curious to see whether there are any retrospective studies on the relative value of 6-year APM versus 1-year APM. If you were to eliminate the outliers, using say, Hollinger’s Fluke-Rule, I would imagine the 1-year APM would be far better at predicting performance than the 6-year model.

In any case, I think 6 years is far too long, since most professional careers are not even that length. 2-3 years may be the sweet spot.

by Madhouse on Sep 3, 2009 11:39 AM EDT reply actions  

I suggest going to the APBRmetrics message board and taking a look at some of the threads.

The topic has been brought up, in terms of how this information translate to predicting future performance. I think 6 year APM is valuable in the sense that it nearly eliminates the noise in the metric and paints a more accurate picture of a player IF he hasn’t substantially changed during that timeframe. In the case of Jameer Nelson, and I made this point explicitly clear in my post, the numbers reflect who he was, not who he is.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 3, 2009 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gortat is a beast.

Do not try it. I will call you on it every time. No one likes the smell of S*it, especially Bull S*it

by BS Patrol on Sep 3, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

This stat seems on point

Look at how much worse Redick has been as a Magic reserve than Gortat. Redick’s worse than Anthony Johnson! And I completely agree.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 3, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions  

By the same measure, it means Barnes and Redick

are equally awful. And we’re counting on Barnes as the primary wing reserve.

by Madhouse on Sep 3, 2009 3:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Well, APM isn't the be-all, end-all stat.

Barnes will be a great fit for the Magic, and in the end, that’s all that matters. It’s not always about accumulating players with the best stats, but about accumulating players who fit the team’s scheme.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 3, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Barnes is a journeyman who plays on a different team each year

A lot of those teams haven’t been very good and that probably affects things. Regardless, it’s not any sort of validation for Redick that his adj. +/- is the same as a journeyman like Barnes.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 3, 2009 5:32 PM EDT reply actions  

It's not a validation at all, no.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 3, 2009 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

One possible explanation for Bass' low score: for the first 2 years of his career, he wasn't very good

As in, single-digit-PER for some Hornets teams that made the lottery. In Dallas, he flourished. So bear that in mind when considering how he’ll perform with a championship-contending team.

by Ben Q Rock on Sep 3, 2009 6:39 PM EDT reply actions  

That's partly true, but he barely played his first two years with New Orleans.

.. so it’s not like his performance during those seasons has a major bearing on his APM.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 3, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are stat heads, mostly on the APBRmetrics board, that rationalize Lewis' contract w/ his APM.

In essence, Rashard has been sporting excellent APM numbers during his time in Orlando (best on the team and top 10 in the NBA), so there are some that feel he is indeed worth the large sum of money.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 4, 2009 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

IMO he does deserve a large sum of money.... but not that large.

But if that’s what we had to pay to get him, I have no problem with it. BTW, I wasn’t a big Magic fan when we signed Shard… do you think he would have come for less?

by josh99 on Sep 4, 2009 6:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's no secret he's overpaid. That's a fact which has been absolutely butchered to death.

As for your question, I’d say yes.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 4, 2009 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Appreciate it.

Glad you (and others, I’m sure) enjoy the content.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 4, 2009 6:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

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