When Will The Real J.J. Redick Stand Up?

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 8:00 AM EDT in Analysis Comment 32 comments

When it comes to J.J. Redick, there seems to be a love/hate relationship between he and Orlando Magic fans. Perhaps that stems from Redick's time with Duke University. Whatever the case may be, the city has been patiently (or impatiently) waiting for Redick to bust out of his shell and become more of an impact player coming off the bench for head coach Stan Van Gundy. Unfortunately for Redick, that hasn't happened yet and people are wondering whether or not he'll break out at all.

Although Redick experienced career-highs in games played and minutes played this past season, he experienced career-lows in field goal percentage (38.8%) and Offensive Rating (107). Ironic, given that Redick is known as a shooter. Now, Redick's advanced shooting percentages were above-average (eFG% of 50.0%, TS% of 55.9%) but certainly the numbers can be higher. Hence the waiting game for fans. Will they be higher in the upcoming season? If so, how much higher will they be?

Tough to say.

But when looking at the numbers, I don't see why Redick can't have statistics similar to Rashard Lewis (eFG% of 54.0%, TS% of 58.0% last year). I'll explain.

What hurt Redick's stats this past season, as Ben mentioned before, was the fact he shot abnormally low inside the arc (40.3% on two-point field goals). Specifically, his mid-range game was average (converted 33% of his shots between 17 feet & inside the three-point line). There's no reason why Redick can't bump up his field goal percentage back up above 40% (not that hard). If Redick can replicate Lewis' field goal percentage of last year (43.9%), improve his three-point shooting a teeny bit (at or around 40%), and maintain or surpass his current free-throw percentage (87.1%), it's entirely possible that Redick can be as efficient of a shooter as Lewis, if not more (due to, presumably, a lower usage percentage). In his career, Redick has achieved those stats in bits and pieces, but he hasn't been able to put it all together in a single season. Perhaps this year can be that year.

	Lewis (2009 regular season)	Redick (previous seasons)
FG%	43.9%	44.0% (2008)*
3P%	39.7%	39.5% (2008)*
FT%	83.6%	90.0% (2007)*
eFG%	54.0%	???
TS%	58.0%	???
USG%	22.0%	???
ORtg	113	???

*sample sizes are small (622 minutes in 2007, 276 minutes in 2008)

If Redick can put it all together, offensively, this season, then the local fans might finally begin to see the prolific shooter that was so touted coming out of college. I like to quickly add that I'm only comparing Redick and Lewis as shooters, not as players.

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Redick can't shoot as efficiently as Rashard

because he lacks his length and he doesn’t have the athleticism to get enough separation for a clean look. And he’s old enough now that he has likely reached his ceiling. If he can stay in front of second-tier shooting guards, he may have a career as a catch and shoot player on offense, like Eddie House.

by Madhouse on Sep 22, 2009 8:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

eddie house would be a good comparison

Nah' mean, nah'm sayin

by Dr Things on Sep 22, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eddie House shot more efficiently than Rashard Lewis last season.

Granted, he had a career year when it comes to shooting.

Redick’s numbers, so far, have been better than House’s throughout his career, which is why I used Lewis as a comparison because it honestly wouldn’t take much to J.J. to improve his numbers a bit.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I fear you are already seeing him. He is the next Trajan Langdon. Kind of successful, but no star player.

"I think he can still play" - Kevin Pritchard on Juwan Howard

by Norsktroll on Sep 22, 2009 9:01 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I never suggested Redick would be a star player, just a useful player coming off the bench.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In the same way Adonal Foyle is useful coming off the bench?

by CaliFlorida on Sep 22, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Different players, different skills.

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"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No we wll never see the college Redick

This isnt a knock on the guy as a player, he came into the league with a lot of hype. But I think over the years he has developed D under SVG and thats the only reason he see’s any minutes. On a team like the Magic so top heavy with talent it assures he wont get many shots even when he is on the court. but Redick does important things like set screens and keeep peeling off on rolls keeping opposing players working. And he still has the dead on ability to unconciously shoot the rock. On another team without any star power he might develope into a decent #3or #2 scorer in time but with us or other contenders he will have to be content with staying ready when needed and watching alot of basketball.I think the guy provides a good 5-8 minutes a game, more in a different system. With us he will be lucky to get 2-3 minute cleanup duty, he will be the human victory cigar.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 22, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

See, Redick getting (x) amount of shots has nothing to do with him shooting more efficiently.

In fact, the less shots J.J. takes, the more efficient he can be because his usage rate won’t be as high.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes but the manner that he is used has to do with it

I dont see him as any higher than 3rd option at best when he is on the court. Most his shots will be the bailout variety and i think that will lower his efficiency. I just dont see us using the kind of system his game would flourish in. I hope I am wrong on this he is a decent/good player.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 22, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I disagree, you put Redick out on the court as a spot-up shooter like Pietrus and he's fine.

How many times did we see Lee or other guys waiting for the ball to be swung around the perimeter for them to shoot the corner three? A lot. Again, it’s about playing to J.J.’s strengths.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can someone explain dominance in College to Human victory cigar in the NBA?

This inquiry is a serious one

Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin

by BS Patrol on Sep 22, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd say it's the same as dominating in double A baseball and then platooning in the bigs once called up.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 22, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

human victory cigar

Victory cigar comes from Red Auerbach lighting up his cigar when he knew the game was in the bag. Human victory cigar refers to a player so deep in the rotation, that if he’s actually playing… the game is already in the bag.

Dominance in college is… dominance in college.

by Jwoey on Sep 22, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can see JJ's shooting getting back to the norm (as in good again)

Just as Jameer and MP will go back to their norms, shooting wise.

by bandrewg08 on Sep 22, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

From his website

Looks like he is trying his best to be in top form this season

Lets just see if that translates into productive minutes this season

I am the world's best basketball player! *

* Among those with no skills whatsoever

by JayPar16 on Sep 22, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i would like to see jj shiped to another team .

he needs a shot at some real min. till then you never know what he can do. let him get in a grove and he could become one of the best shooters in the game. he was in collage. that dont just go away.

by magicman775 on Sep 22, 2009 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He got real minutes last year

What’d he average 18, 19 minutes a game? That’s not insignificant.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 22, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thats not real min.

30+ is real min. he averaged 17.4 min last year and 8 min. the year before. he averaged 14 over his career.

by magicman775 on Sep 22, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

30+?

We had four players average over 30 minutes per game last season: Turk, Lewis, Nelson, and Howard. Rafer Alston (y’know, our other starting PG) averaged 29.5. Redick averaged more time than Gortat, and only slightly less than Dad. AJ was the sole backup PG, where JJ was the 2.5 string SG (since Peaches played both 2 & 3). For a backup, JJ got real minutes last season. Given that JJ’s only a 2-guard (as opposed to a 1-2 or a 2-3 flex player), if you’re giving him 30+ minutes, you’re taking playing time away from Vince Carter. That’s not the way to win basketball games.

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I'll be right there
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Believe"

by The Dark on Sep 23, 2009 7:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant on a different team...

by josh99 on Sep 23, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's a big difference between Rashard and Redick, as shooters, that isn't mentioned

Rashard basically can get his shot off any time he wants, against any defender. Redick basically is unable to get his own shot against anyone — he can’t shoot over anyone, he can’t create separation off the dribble, and he doesn’t excel coming off screans. Really the only shots he can get are off of ball rotations where he’s left open. And he shoots 39% — cheers.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 22, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True, but he can easily succeed in a role as a spot-up shooter, similar to Pietrus.

It’s all about putting Redick is positions where his output can be maximized.

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"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pietrus at least gives the defense something to think about on close outs.

Defenses have to respect Pietrus’ ability to take the ball to the basket. Redick, not so much.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 22, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True, but he can still excel as a spot-up shooter, even with the absence of that skill.

Looking at the numbers, there’s still room for improvement for Redick shooting when unguarded.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And I'm not so sure Redick's difficulties shooting thus far are explained by him not being placed in the right positions.

I don’t see Brian Hill or SVG having much to do with Redick’s shooting troubles at all.

by CaliFlorida on Sep 22, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, part of that is him.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree

its how you use him.

by magicman775 on Sep 22, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look, Redick's TS% was essentially 56% last season.

The only thing I’m suggesting is he can improve slightly enough to have a TS% of 58%. It’s two percentage points! It’s not that hard, goodness. His eFG% is a different story because that’s where his two-point shooting needed to improve for that statistic to rise. All that I’m suggesting is minor improvement coming from J.J.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 22, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs