Orlando Magic News for September 18th: Projecting Jameer Nelson's Season; the NBA Locks Out Referees
by erivera7 on Sep 18, 2009 5:51 PM EDT
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Orlando Magic need Dwight Howard, Vince Carter to emerge as leaders
John Hollinger of ESPN Insider projects Jameer Nelson's season, according to his PER (18.81) and his shooting percentages. Not too bad of a dip.It seems highly unlikely that Nelson will shoot so ridiculously well from middle and long ranges next season, and we should expect his numbers to regress to the mean as a result. He should continue to be an impact player, but one should look at his 2005-06 season as a barometer. Nelson's true shooting percentage (TS%) that year (56.7 percent) was nearly five points lower than last season's (61.2 percent), but he still averaged better than 20 points and six assists per 40 minutes. That's the type of season to expect from him this year, and it may be the difference between Orlando's winning the title and losing in the Finals.
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NBA locks out refs
Adrian Wojnarowski shares unfortunate news that will surely affect the league, regarding the NBA and its game officials. Be prepared for replacement refs.The NBA has locked out its referees, Yahoo! Sports has learned. After failing to reach an agreement with its game officials, the NBA will start referee training camp with replacements next week.
Talks ended on Thursday, when the league and NBA Referee’s Association were unable to come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement. The NBA will use Developmental League and WNBA officials to start the preseason, and perhaps, the regular season. -
2010 Projected Win Share Rates
Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference posts the projected Win Share rates for every player in the NBA for the 2009-2010 regular season. Listed among the leaders are Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis.Rate stats are, of course, relatively easy to project for basketball players because they don't fluctuate a ridiculous amount from season to season -- they are generally a function of the player's ability level, with teammates, coaches, and other external factors playing a role as well. Playing time, however, is always difficult to project because much of it stems from factors outside the player's control, like injuries, coaching decisions, trades, etc.
So, while I continue to work on an acceptable method to project minutes, I thought I'd tide you over on a Friday afternoon with the projected Win Share rates I've been working on. It uses a framework similar to the SPS, with the added wrinkle of draft position being accounted for with inexperienced players. -
NBA Wives take spotlight by
Shannon Owens posts information for those into reality shows.According to one of my favorite websites, theybf.com, Shaunie O'Neal, wife of former Magic center Shaquille O'Neal, Denika Williams, wife of Magic guard Jason Williams and Royce Reed, the mother of Dwight Howard's son, will be among a cast of NBA wives shopping around a reality show featuring their lives.
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NBA Summer Moves: Southeast Division
UPDATE (from Ben): Joey Whelan has plenty to say about the Magic in his evaluation of moves Southeast Division teams made this summer. He lists their signing of Brandon Bass as the best offseason move of any Southeast team:For starters, it gives the Magic a true power forward to line up alongside Dwight Howard who can provide toughness, defense and tremendous help on the glass. With the type of scoring punch that Orlando will feature in their other four starting positions, Bass isn’t going to have to worry about scoring, just rebounding the basketball and playing physical. Perhaps most importantly though, this allows Rashard Lewis to shift back to his natural position of small forward and that will be a slight upgrade on [Hedo] Turkoglu at that spot. So rather than just filling a void (a la [Vince] Carter) Bass gives the Magic an upgrade on toughness inside and allows them to shift and slightly upgrade at the small forward spot.
Click through to read Whelan's assessment of the Magic's acquisition of Carter and Ryan Anderson, and their decision to match Dallas' offer sheet to Marcin Gortat.
- Don't forget to check out Ben's write-up posted earlier today, regarding the Magic's top 10 plays of this past season. Have a good weekend, everyone.
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I now Jameer's numbers were high last year, but does anyone remember why?
Last offseason, Jameer changed the way he trained. He made a committment to making 1000 shots a day before leaving the gym. He hired a new shooting coach and improved his touch. I think as a result Jammer will attract more attention from defenses, but I don’t think we will see Jameer shoot the ball poorly. If you guys remember he still shot the ball at a high rate with a hand in the face. If you don’t remember, look at the game winning three in LA with Pau Gasol coming at him!
Hollinger isn't suggesting that Nelson is going to shoot poorly. Just not as insane.
I’ve been preaching this for months now; Jameer’s shooting percentages were ridiculous and nearly unsustainable. It’s natural for Nelson to regress back to the mean, but the dip won’t be drastic.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I think he can. I think that's a realistic figure to shoot for.
Jameer’s career FG% is 46.5%, so I don’t see why he can’t match or exceed that number.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I'm not sure what the x-factor was between 2006 Jameer and 2008 Jameer
but I know one version had me cursing repeatedly when I watched games and the other had me picking up the phone calling people who weren’t interested in hearing me yell that we were watching Tim Hardaway in his prime.
I understand that expectations can’t be at that 2008 level of performance; but I also know that if Jameer plays like that guy we saw a few years ago, Magic fans better hope Dwight, Vince, and Rashard are out of their minds — because a title is unrealistic otherwise.
Over/under 47% for the year? I'm saying over.
What about you?
I would save over, as well.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I don't understand when people keep saying 'Jameer's shooting will regress back to the mean this year'
what does that mean? 2006 like Hollinger says? If so, I say in Lebron James’ dreams, for the same reason as stated above — Jameer I think has made himself into a better shooter currently. The player we saw last season was a different shooter than who we ever saw previously.
You don't know what regress to the mean alludes to?
Jameer’s numbers were insane last year; unsustainable. I don’t think anyone would deny that he’s improved as a shooter (I think it’s more that he simply knows what his role is, a point that scores), but even then, for Nelson to have a higher TS% than Dwight Howard is unheard of. Same with Ray Allen. It’s nearly impossible for perimeter-oriented guards, who are volume shooters, to have such high shooting percentages. Jameer regressing to the mean isn’t bad, it’s natural and to be expected. I really don’t know how I can be clearer than that.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Well, in this case, it has its proper use.
Jameer’s shooting percentages were abnormally high, thus one should expect him to regress to the mean simply because the numbers dictate for that to happen.
Again, Nelson won’t dip dramatically, just a teeny bit to a more sustainable rate.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Just his shooting.
It’s not impossible to shoot 50% from the field as a guard, but it’s extremely difficult to shoot 45% from three-point range. That’s the unsustainable percentage that will, subsequently, affect Nelson’s eFG% and TS% a bit.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I think that'll happen because there is a loose correlation.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I would, because he was on pace to attempt more than 350+ threes last year.
That statistic would have put him among the league leaders.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Ok, but that doesn't change the fact that Jameer takes around 13 shots a game,
which certainly doesn’t put him among the true “volume shooters” in the league. You mentioned Ray Allen — in his prime, he would take over 20 shots a game. A guy like that or someone like Iverson comes to mind first when I think of true volume shooters. Jameer’s scoring is marked primarily by his efficiency rather than the volume of his shot attempts.
There's different ways to define volume shooters, in my opinion.
For some, it’s their total shot attempts. For others, it’s their three-point shooting.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
joey has a real good point.
this is why i think bass will fit in right away. i’m the crazy guy who thinks we very well might see him starting alot this season. nelson,carter,shard,bass and superman. i think stan will want air france coming off the bench still. i could very well be wrong too.
Pietrus coming off the bench makes sense, but playing Rashard predominantly at the 3 doesn't.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
We'll see - but remember, we have never seen Rashard play small forward for the Magic
tough to judge conclusively at this point. I’m sure there will be some experimenting going on.
shard will still get alot of min. at the 4 spot. it works well
that dont mean he has to start at the 4. i think shard will play real close to half his min. at the 3 and half at the 4. only time will tell. we dont have to long to wait.
by magicman775 on Sep 19, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
He will start at the 4.
Anyone expecting Lewis to start at the 3 long-term might as well get ready to be disappointed.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
no disappointment here.
either way we will be awsome. 9 days till camp. thats just what i think going off what coach said. what was his words bass has a very good chance of starting. something close to that when we brought him in. can you tell im a bass fan. i think its the diffrence of a title in orlando.
Knowing from a team insider, with a fully available roster, Lewis will be the starter at the 4.
As for Bass, I think he’ll have his uses as a player, but I think you’re overrating him a bit.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
There's no reason to doubt that but it's not to suggest Van Gundy isn't likely to experiment with lineups quite a bit
including Lewis at 3. Who knows what results that would yield.
thats all im sayin.
you never know whats going to happen thats why we play the season out.
I already said a number of times that Lewis will see time at the 3.
I’m not disputing that.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
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