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Forget Superman; is Dwight Howard the Next Admiral?

The induction of former San Antonio Spurs center David Robinson to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame this weekend reminded me of his similarities to Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, at least superficially. We tend to regard both players highly for their character in addition to their incredible level of skill. And Robinson's chiseled frame, as 48 Minutes of Hell has pointed out, makes him a potential prototype for the musclebound Howard.

But is there more to the comparison? On the court, can Howard hold a candle to Robinson, arguably one of the most statistically dominant players of any era?

Star-divide

On the surface, it might be understandable to regard any hope of Howard's developing into a player of Robinson's caliber as too optimistic. Robinson, for instance, became an All-Star in his rookie season, during which his stellar play--to the tune of 24.3 points, 12 rebounds, 3.9 blocks, and 53.1% shooting--earned him the Rookie of the Year award. Howard, as a rookie? 12 points, 10 boards, 1.7 blocks, 52% shooting, and neither an All-Star appearance nor a Rookie of the Year award. You can see a side-by-side statistical comparison of their rookie seasons here.

But there's a key fact we've omitted, by design, in that last paragraph: age. Robinson first appeared in an NBA game at 24 years, 2 months, and 29 days old. Howard, in contrast, made his NBA debut at 18 years, 10 months, and 26 days. Robinson was more-or-less fully developed, whereas Howard was mere months beyond attending his senior prom. When this coming season tips off on October 28th, Dwight will be 23 years, 10 months, and 20 days old. Thus, at the start of his sixth season, Howard will be younger than Robinson was as a rookie. Age merits consideration in evaluating a given player's progress, which is why a spirited debate rages on regarding Nets forward Yi Jianlian, who is either 21 or 25, depending on whom you ask.

So, in order to better assess Howard's development relative to Robinson's, we should instead look at how he fared last season, at age 23, compared to Robinson's rookie year at age 24.

Per-36-minute Scoring and Rate Statistics for Dwight Howard and David Robinson at Age 24
PlayerPts/36Reb %Ast%TO%Blk%Usg %eFG%TS%
Howard20.721.8%7.3%15.1%5.9%26.1%57.2%60.0%
Robinson23.918.5%8.7%13.3%6.5%26.6%53.1%59.7%

Robinson holds the statistical edge overall, as a more proficient scorer, passer, and shot-blocker. But you'll notice that Howard's the better rebounder by far. In other words, Dwight isn't too far off from at least matching Robinson's pace at the same age. And even if he never develops Robinson's vast offensive repertoire, he'll still be every bit as staunch a defender, and an even better rebounder. In light of the evidence, it's fair to conclude that Robinson's career accomplishments are within Howard's reach.

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until Dwight finds a jumper

Its not even close, Robinson was a feared beast who would score on you, every night

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 17, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Still doesn't change the fact that there are parallels between the two, statistically.

This quote from Johnny Ludden really brings it home about the similarities, aesthetically:

The league had never seen anyone like him during those early years. He stood 7-foot-1 with a body built like a wasp: narrow waist, broad shoulders, muscles rippling on top of muscles. He protected the rim as well as anyone in the league, but also ran the floor like a guard. He’d track down a rebound 18 feet from the basket, spin on his heels and sprint back for a devastating dunk. John Lucas(notes) once canceled practice after watching Robinson walk halfway across the court on his hands. By the final season of his career, Robinson was still wearing size 30 jeans. Even now, he looks like he could go for 18 and 10.

Sounds a lot like Dwight Howard.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 17, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do see similarities

But Admiral was taller more poised and had way better offensive selection. Not knocking on dwight because they both are in gifted shape. Just Robinson was way more polished, dwight can get there too.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 17, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Howard can get there. I don't see why he can't.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 17, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Robinson was not just an athletic freak

but also a gifted scorer. He had a face-up game, a back-to-the-basket game and could knock down 15-18 footers. At this stage in Dwight’s career, its no comparison. However, it should be noted that Robinson played at a time when the pace was higher and defense was an oddity reserved for the Pistons and Knicks, which could account for his greater scoring avg (on a per minute basis) and also for his higher rate of blocks since he didn’t play with the caliber of perimeter defenders the Magic had last season (more opportunities for blocked shots).

I really wish Dwight would spend time around guys like Hakeem (who runs a big man camp), Pete Newell (when he was still alive) or even Kevin McHale to develop more of a post game. Although he’s a become a better post scorer in the last couple of years, his development has been glacial. I fear Ewing may not be the best mentor for him.

by Madhouse on Sep 17, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

PS

I loved the footage of Hakeem in the link from the post above. Robinson & Hakeem are inexorably linked, if for no other reason than Robinson getting dominated by Hakeem after winning the MVP. Plus, watching the dazzling array of post moves—up and unders, Dream Shakes, scoops, et—makes me lament how dominant a player Dwight would be with even a 1/3 of those post skills.

As it stands, a more apt comparison for Dwight may be Moses Malone or Darryl Dawkins—physically dominant (though not as muscular) post players who got most of their buckets in garbage (Dawkins) or through a limited, though incredibly effective, array of post moves (Moses).

Chocolate Thunder, btw, grew up in Orlando.

by Madhouse on Sep 17, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the jury is out on what type of player Howard will become.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 17, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was never that impressed with Robinson.

A great scorer, don’t get me wrong — but just not a guy I remember as a dominant defender or a physical force. Granted, I only remember the last half of his career, and even then I wasn’t paying THAT much attention. But he always struck me as a bit soft.

Now, as you said, he’s really stuck being compared to Hakeem, who was clearly the better player. And being in Orlando, I was of course comparing him to Shaq — when you’re talking “physical force”, yeah, anyone who’s not Shaq is going to seem kind of lacking in the physical department…

He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.

by 3.3seconds on Sep 17, 2009 4:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Man, I highly suggest you watch tape of David during his prime.

I know people give him flack for Olajuwon dominating him in the ‘95 playoffs (if I’m not mistaken), but Robinson was asked to single-cover one of the greatest centers of all-time. That’s a tough assignment.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 17, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The only thing that David Robinson had that Dwight really didn't

Was a balanced offensive game. But, Dwight doesn’t need a great jumper to be a great offensive player in the NBA. He needs stronger legs and more assertive post moves to go with the legs.

Other than that, Dwight is just fine. The fact that you can compare him to David Robinson says how great Robinson is (one), and how brilliant Dwight has been so far in his career (two).

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on Sep 17, 2009 9:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well said, pookey.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 17, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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