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Fact or Fiction: The Orlando Magic Will Lead the NBA in Defensive Efficiency for a Second Consecutive Season

Fact or Fiction presents both sides of key issues the Orlando Magic will face in the upcoming NBA season.

The Orlando Magic will lead the league in defensive efficiency for the second consecutive season.

FACT: It starts and ends with Dwight Howard, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Now, Howard isn't the consensus "best" defender in the NBA because there are a number of individuals that could lay claim to that particular title, but he's clearly an elite player on the defensive end and the main reason why the Orlando Magic finished this past season with the most efficient defense in the Association. There's no doubt that head coach Stan Van Gundy will continue to build schemes around Howard, because ultimately it is he who is the main anchor, defensively.

 

However, Howard isn't alone when it comes to playing above-average defense. Rashard Lewis has developed into one of the better defensive power forwards in the league. Brandon Bass was brought in, somewhat, for his defensive acumen, which is remarkable considering that wasn't his modus operandi when he first entered the league. Marcin Gortat is nearly as capable of a defender as Howard. All in all, it's clear when looking at the roster, that the Magic have a number of players that can make an impact on defense. Even Vince Carter, when motivated.

 

What's the formula for defensive success?

 

The key numbers to look at in the upcoming season are opponent eFG%, defensive rebounding percentage, and opponent free throws/field goal attempts. Last year Orlando ranked #1, #2, and #4, respectively, in each category. Almost all three statistics can be attributed to Howard in one way or the other. I'll explain why. Opponents were deterred from penetrating in the lane, thus forcing them to shoot more jumpers from the perimeter. In turn, players didn't draw as many fouls in the process because they weren't attacking the paint as much. Not to mention, teams didn't get many second-chance opportunities because there weren't many offensive rebounds to come by. Most of that is Howard's handiwork. Impressed?

 

The Magic's ability to excel in three of the "four factors" defensively (the fourth being turnover percentage), thanks to Howard and Co., is THE reason why the squad stands a great chance of leading the NBA in defensive efficiency for another year.

 

As long as the team stays healthy and plays to its talent level, of course.

 

FICTION: The Boston Celtics.

 

Before Kevin Garnett went down with an injury this past season, the C's were on pace to have the best defense in the Association for the second consecutive year. As such, it's not too outlandish to suggest that with the return of Kevin and the addition of Rasheed Wallace, the Celtics pose a great chance of leading the NBA in defensive efficiency once again. With Boston, there will be justifiable concerns about age and health (more so age than health), but those factors notwithstanding, it would seem unwise to underestimate how good the C's will be on the defensive side of the ball.

 

This isn't to dismiss other teams that expect to have stout defenses, like the Cleveland Cavaliers, the San Antonio Spurs, or the Los Angeles Lakers, though. 

 

For example, even though Orlando did have the best defense in the league last year, Boston and Cleveland were just as good when looking at the numbers. The Magic (101.9 points/100 possessions), the Celtics (102.3), & the Cavaliers (102.4) all had excellent defenses that were nearly the same, from a statistical standpoint. 

 

So, this is like betting on (insert team here) vs. the field ...

 

Verdict: ... in which case, one would be wise to bet on the field instead of Orlando. This isn't to state that the Magic aren't capable of leading the NBA in defensive efficiency, but given there are other teams around the Association that have equally strong defensive units, it's easy to see the Orlando Magic fall a bit in the rankings.

 

Not by much, though.

 

With grateful acknowledgement to 3QC user derekk, who suggested this topic.

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Yeah, Orlando will be among the league leaders.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 14, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll be happy. . .

If we have the best defense in the nba finals next year

by JayPar16 on Sep 14, 2009 11:03 AM EDT reply actions  

Maybe no repeat

As the writer states there has been too much improvement to already great defensive teams(Boston/Cleveland/S.A./L.A.) for the Magic to repeat. But I definately think we will be a top 3 defensive team.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 14, 2009 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I say top five is a safer prediction, as long as the team stays healthy and what not.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 14, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

i stand by my prediction, top 3

We will have the DPotY & Barnes and Bass are both good additions on the D side
I stand by my statement

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 14, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 14, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 14, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Very nice E

Your assesment is spot on, as always. Still, I see a marked improvement by the Magic on the defensive end that will offset the other teams changes.

One, as good as he was, Turk was the number two culprit in the Magic’s numbers in turnovers… and he’s GONE!

Two, Howard was no. 1 in turnovers, but It’s easy to see Him improve on this negative, this year and over the next couple of years, and this WILL have an impact on the defensive end.

Three, is a two-fold element, really: Youth and Van Gundy. Combine both and you can see the Magic REALLY gel by mid season, to become one of the two best teams in the NBA, both defensively AND offensively.

NOTE: Don’t forget Anderson; I see him developing into another Gortat, a Monster in his own right. He WILL be HUGE for the Magic.

by manny55 on Sep 15, 2009 9:48 AM EDT reply actions  

exactly

not to mention VC will be motivated to prove doubters wrong.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 15, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

Turnovers doesn't have to do with defense, though.

I’m assuming you’re talking about that from the offensive end.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 15, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Boston Celtics

The Celtics would be my frontrunner for the defensive efficiency bragging rights.

I fully expect the Magic to be an elite defensive team once again though. I’m optimistic about Vince being a good defender here, I think he’ll make the most of this opportunity and give his strongest effort on the defensive side of the floor.

But what I’m most interested in is seeing how the Magic change defensively — No Courtney Lee, do you start Pietrus or play without an out-and-out stopper? And then Lewis, how many minutes does he play at the three and how good is he defensively there?

Rashard Lewis is the guy I’m most intrigued about. How he handles the switch back to small forward — at least I’m hoping he plays more time there and less at the four, giving more opportunities to Bass + Anderson — Lewis has been so good defensively at the four spot, but he wasn’t nearly as accomplished a defender at the small forward spot prior to joining Orlando. At least in his final season or two in Seattle, Lewis had stopped being a liability there, and turned himself into a mediocre to slightly above average defender but still nowhere near the defensive impact we’ve seen from him as a power forward with the Magic.

So, the transition for Lewis defensively, I can’t wait to see how that unfolds!

by NBR on Sep 15, 2009 6:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I think it would be counter-productive to feature Lewis less at the 4.

It can’t be understated how lethal Rashard is at that position.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 15, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

If the defense drops off in a large way, then yes, I think it’ll probably hurt the team.

But if Lewis can defend the small forward position at a high level while getting another rebounder out there at the power forward spot, then I think it’s worthwhile.

by NBR on Sep 15, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thing is, the Magic don't need another rebounder.

Orlando was 4th in defensive rebounding percentage last season, and before you counter with “well, they need to improve the offensive rebounding percentage”, I’ll quickly retort that it isn’t a prerequisite to win a title. For example, San Antonio was 27th in offensive rebounding percentage and won a title. Dwight Howard, alone, can do all the heavy lifting in that department.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 16, 2009 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

In the playoffs last season the Celtics out-rebounded the Magic in 6 of the 7 games.

In four of those seven games, the Celtics had rebound advantages of six to seven boards. Overall they out-rebounded Orlando by 3.5 boards a night, and in the six games where Orlando won the battle of the boards they were over 5.1 in rebound differential.

This is without Kevin Garnett — a guy who’s a tremendous rebounder + defender who’ll create even more possessions for the Celtics.

If you go back over the games against Boston from the past two regular seasons you’ll see that this rebounding margin is nothing new in this matchup. The teams have played six teams with Boston controlling the glass in their last five meetings, only losing the very first battle — that great game in Orlando two years ago, the Magic’s coming out party.

Extra Possessions

Giving the opposition so many extra possessions = more opportunities to hurt you …

That type of disadvantage puts a huge amount of pressure on the effectiveness on the team’s defense + offense. If Orlando can maintain most of their efficiency while cutting down all those extra possessions (against Boston), then that’s something well worth doing.

One Weakness

Offensively, the Magic are golden. Defensively, very impressive.

Now with the upgrade of Hedo to Vince, giving Orlando a much improved go-to scorer plus creator … Orlando has only one major weakness left and that’s rebounding.

  • Can they win a title without fixing that? Yes, of course they can.
  • Does the team’s rebounding leave Orlando vulnerable? Yes it does, and a great rebounding team like Boston will take advantage of that.
  • If they can fix that – while leaving their offense + defense in a comparable state – does it give them a better chance of winning? Absolutely
  • Do the Magic have the players do that? They certainly have the talent (Bass, Anderson) to experiment and find out the answer.

by NBR on Sep 16, 2009 5:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's a matchup-specific argument I wasn't even addressing.

I’m talking about overall, not about the Boston Celtics. Do the Magic benefit by having a guy like Brandon Bass in a series against the C’s? Sure,

But if we’re talking about getting defensive rebounds, Brandon’s DRB% was only slightly better than Rashard’s so I’m not entirely convinced plopping Bass at the 4 immediately alleviates Orlando’s ability to get more rebounds than Boston. If anything, putting Marcin Gortat at the power forward spot would make more sense. Problem is his fit on the offensive side of the ball, which makes things complicated. The same can be said about Bass.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 16, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think it’s possible for the Magic to be an elite offensive team, an elite defensive team and an elite rebounding team all at the same time … instead of elite offensively + defensively and good-to-very good on the boards.

I think there’s a good chance for the team to up their rebounding while maintaining nearly all of their offensive/defensive impact.

That advantage of having an extra 2-3 possessions per game will help against all teams the Magic face throughout the season and not just Boston.

Celtics

Boston are the team of note because they’re one of the Magic’s main rivals for the East and the team best equipped to take advantage of Orlando’s rebounding.

Doubly so for Boston, because they can do a good job defending Orlando’s offense unlike Cleveland who are also very good-to-excellent on the boards but so far are incapable of defending the Magic which limits their rebounding advantage.

by NBR on Sep 16, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why everyone overlooks...

The unbelievable mismatch Shard @ the 4 brings I will never guess. Their bigs have to close out to the 3 line allllll night long. Legs get tired, defenders start fouling. Putting a “conventional” big in for the bulk of the 4 minutes would play right in to several elite teams hands. Thats why Boston got Wallace, they are copying us. Same w/ Toronto, they want to be just like us. Shard @ the 3 would be good on certain mismatches but would hurt our spread out offense in the long run.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 15, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

The position of power forward is evolving.

I think people need to realize that and accept that traditional power forwards aren’t always in the best interest of a team. In the case of the Orlando Magic, they’re definitely not in the best interest.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 16, 2009 4:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

  • Brandon Bass is an excellent two point jump shooter.
  • Ryan Anderson is very good three point shooter.
  • And Rashard Lewis should still get some time at the four spot … especially in lineups when Pietrus comes off the bench (should Shard be the starting three) and especially against team’s like Cleveland who struggle to defend that setup … say 10-15 minutes a night ordinarily, and more when needed.

It’s not like the Magic are coming out here with Anderson Varejao or a Reggie Evans.

It’s Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson, these guys can shoot the ball! That’s why there’s a chance that this can work and work very well at that.

by NBR on Sep 16, 2009 5:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

yes true, but

Bass and Anderson will represent the Magics 2nd string, which probably will be more conventional. But Rashard is the lynchpin for our spread out 3pt shooting setup. here why Shard @ SF is bad.

  • By having a traditional PF the other team can camp out in the paint, this double teams Dwight ( arguably his weakest part of his game) and allows them to aggressively foul him (barely 55% on line)
  • Also going traditional will lower our 3pt attempts and makes which was a big reason for many of our wins last year.
  • putting Shard @ the 3 is also bad for him, think about it, Traditionally SF are leaner and faster. Shard @ the 4 actually allows him to be the one exploiting quickness advantages, not the other way around.
  • finally going traditional will put more load on the PG due to less competent dribblers being available. Do you see Bass dribbling out of a double and finding an open man?

To surmise moving Rashard back to SF would be a huge mistake other than in rare matchup situations. It would let teams “go big” against us and abuse Howard (more than usual). It will also insure a lower scoring form of the Magic. R.Lewis will have to start working his hardest night in night out at the peak of his career. Not the best way to save your UNMOVEABLE & biggest contract’s legs for the long run. Everything you will gain for Lewis due to height you will loss an equal or larger percentage to quickness and jumping. And finally putting Lewis @ SF will put one more big on the court, with Lewis posting up for a 3 and Carter potentially doing the same at that moment who will handle the rock? Dwight or Bass, no poor Jameer will have to dribble his shoulder out of socket every game. Lewis at the PF is one of the rare unique systems that truely grants balance and flusters opponents defenses. I dont think its in our best interst to change that.

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 16, 2009 8:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

man this got way off who will lead in D

LOL still a good discussion and one that ultimately affects the D too

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 16, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Haha, yes … to round things up a bit …

I’m unconvinced that the team is better off with Lewis at the four spot and I won’t be convinced either way until I can see how well he does defensively against small forwards. I think that’s the key variable.

I’m not worried about his own offense, or the team’s offense, I think the offense will take care of itself. I think there’s just too much firepower out there for the team to suffer a significant decline.

Also, I hoping that Brandon Bass can do a very good job defensively playing alongside Dwight Howard and replace most of Lewis’ defensive contributions at the four spot. So for me, it’s more a question of Lewis’ one-on-one defense at the three spot.

by NBR on Sep 16, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Anderson would make more sense starting than Bass, in my opinion.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 16, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Bass is ahead of Anderson for the time being because of his defense. I wasn’t impressed with Anderson’s D last year.

But as soon as Anderson gets his defense up to scratch, then yes, I think he’s a better fit because of his offense + rebounding advantages.

by NBR on Sep 16, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you there.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 16, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nelson + Vince + Lewis + Bass + Dwight

With three offensive players as gifted as Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson on the perimeter and with Dwight Howard on the interior. And a solid fifth offensive player like Anderson or Bass to round out the lineup. Four incredible offensive players, each one of whom scores efficiently to very efficiently and is capable of going off for 20+ points, and two of whom are excellent passers + playmakers.

I struggle to see how that lineup isn’t a top five offensive team next season. I really do.

by NBR on Sep 16, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

That isn't the issue.

The issue is maximizing the output within the 4 out/1 in offense, which can’t be done with Bass.

I’d like to clarify that the terminology for the offensive set that the Orlando Magic run is technically called 4 out/1 in. I’ve written it that way in posts before, but I know I’ve stated it in comments as ‘1 in, 4 out’ which confuses me and everyone else. So just wanted to let everyone know the “correct” name.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Sep 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

damn

all this time I have been picturing Jameer on the perimeter and Dwight, Gortat, Bass and Foyle in the paint like they are boxing out a freethrow. LOL

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Sep 16, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

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