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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Orlando Magic News for August 5th: Final Look At The Magic's Schedule; A Jason Williams Report

  • The New NBA Schedule
    Bradford Dootlitte of Basketball Prospectus examines the 2009-2010 NBA regular season schedule. In it, the favorite to win the title is revealed, as well as the fact the Orlando Magic have one of the easiest schedules. 

    Just before last season began, I ran some numbers to look at strength-of-schedule factors for each team, using final 2007-08 records as my baseline. I've done the same with the new schedule, only instead of plugging in last year's records, I've used the current projected records my system, NBAPET, is spitting out based on rosters as of today. Hopefully, that will give us a little bit more of an indication of which teams face tough roads and which don't. 

    We should also be able to get an indication of which conference appears to be stronger. In the recent past, Western Conference teams have tended to have slates with a higher degree of difficulty because that conference has been much stronger than the East has been. Last season, that gap more or less disappeared. Of course, that depends on how you want to look at the issue. The East won more games head-to-head, but the heavily-stratified West had more good teams.
  • Could Jason Williams end up in Orlando?
    Tania Ganguli posits whether or not Jason Williams will sign with Orlando to be the team's third point guard.

  • Cavaliers, Lakers, Celtics highlight gems of 2009-10 NBA schedule
    Paul Forrester of Sports Illustrated takes a look at the schedule and points out the most interesting games in the upcoming year. The Magic make the list.

  • Ten Summer Stories to Watch
    Henry Abbott of TrueHoop expands upon the ten summer stories to watch in the NBA before games are played in October. Seems so far away.

  • The Underpaid and Overpaid in 2008-09
    UPDATE: Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal analyzes which players were underpaid and overpaid during the 2008-2009 season.

    We have a measure of how many wins each player created (i.e. Wins Produced). And if teams spent $2.2 billion on players, and these players produced 1,230 regular season wins, we can argue that each win is worth $1.755 million. With a value of win in hand, all we need to do is to multiply the value of a win by each player’s Wins Produced. This calculation gives us a measure of what a team could have paid for a player’s productivity; a measure which can be easily compared to a player’s salary. Once again, players who produced more than they were paid are, by definition, exploited or underpaid.
    Not surprisingly, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis end up being listed. Guess which player is underpaid and which player is overpaid?

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under/over paid

Actually, Rashard is NOT listed. It would seem that he should be, but he’s not in that article at all.

by Trident18 on Aug 5, 2009 11:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Correct.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 6, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Damn, he tore Berri a new one.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 6, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

To be fair to Lewis

his value of wins is the highest of anyone on that list.

by Lee for three on Aug 6, 2009 3:40 AM EDT reply actions  

There is no question that Rashard Lewis is being overpaid

I’m sorry fellow Magic fans but he is not MAX contract worthy.. It’s really the only bad contract the Magic have on the team (I still can’t believe we pay JJ Redick though)

I probably know Judo! How many of you can make the same boast?

by Souwantmyname on Aug 6, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

We know

Done it to death already.

by eltharion_doa on Aug 6, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Where have I heard that before?

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 6, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hah.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 7, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think, as with most attempts at statistical analysis in basketball...

Berri’s analysis is interesting without being conclusive.

And whilst it’s a little obvious for the main players, it’s certainly not for others – Carmelo Anthony overpaid? You can’t tell me you saw that coming. But again we go back to what his assumptions are and how he calculates his stats, and whether you agree with them…

by eltharion_doa on Aug 6, 2009 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

It may just be because I hate math,

but I believe advanced statistics were invented to further confuse fans like me, or to prove obscure and/or minimal points.

"Fun fact: Larry Hughes, who couldn’t stay healthy if all his human parts were replaced with bionic implants, is out for the next four weeks with a bruised leg. Do you think that Willis Reed ever reads about all these players missing time with bruises and sprained fingers and throws up in his mouth a little?"

by Diosnomeama on Aug 6, 2009 12:26 PM EDT reply actions  

No, that's not the case at all.

Advanced statistics weren’t created to further confuse fans, but to eliminate the preconceived notions we have about players or teams. I won’t lie, I’m not a fan of Berri’s work and Shoals explicitly explains better than I could why that is the case. But, Dave had an interesting article and I decided to link to it to encourage discussion. Not everything I post I agree with. I think that’s been explicitly clear.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 6, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

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