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Jameer Nelson, the All-Star. Remember Him?

It must be stated right off the bat that it's a bit ridiculous that Jameer Nelson's value/worth as a player needs to be examined. However, when there is an article suggesting that the Orlando Magic's newest free agent signee, whose explicitly brought in to play back-up point guard, could potentially usurp an All-Star floor general, there's a problem. Perhaps it is the media's obsession with controversy.

 

Yes, Nelson played poorly in the 2009 NBA Finals versus the Los Angeles Lakers and struggled to make an impact on the court. Nelson should be criticized for his sketchy play. But should that be a surprise? Nelson rushed back after months on the sidelines to play on one of basketball's highest stages, spurred by his desire to compete. Nelson tried, but it was evident that he wasn't the same player that he was during the regular season - an individual that carried the Magic in games on a number of occasions, picked apart opposing defenses with his elite marksmanship, was a leader for Orlando on the court & off the court, and more. Nelson should be credited for having the gall to open himself up to criticism or praise when he returned to play in the Finals. Some players would have played it safe in that situation. Not Nelson.

 

As a result, people seem to be forgetting how good Nelson was during the regular season, before he suffered a freak injury in a game against the Dallas Mavericks.

 

Need a reminder?

 

Click after the jump to see the statistical breakdown.

 

Star-divide

I decided to take a different approach in showing the type of player Nelson was before he was injured roughly halfway into the regular season. I showed Nelson's numbers in my evaluation of Orlando Magic point guards a few months back, so rather than regurgitate all of the same information, I figured it'd be an effective exercise to compare Nelson to other floor generals in the Association - specifically, Devin Harris, Tony Parker, and Deron Williams. I omitted Chris Paul because he's, statistically, a top five player, as well as a point guard in his own stratosphere. However, the aforementioned players are in the same tier as Nelson so I figured it'd be good to compare each of them.

 

With all that said, how did Nelson compare to other All-Star caliber players?

 

Jameer Nelson Devin Harris Tony Parker Deron Williams
Games Played 42 69 72 68
Minutes Played 31.2 36.1 34.1 36.8
1 year adj. plus/minus +6.66 -1.51 +7.99 +5.80
net plus/minus +9.7 +1.9 +6.1 +0.9
statistical plus/minus +4.81  +4.48 +2.19 +2.40
PER 20.6 21.6 23.4 21.1
WARP 5.8 11.1 11.8 11.8
Win Shares 6.0 7.4 8.3 8.5

 

(I'm aware that Williams hasn't been an All-Star)

 

It's clear, when using a number of linear metrics, that Nelson should be highly regarded as one of the best point guards in the NBA, today. I stated he "should be" because, as was shown at the beginning of this post, it seems people tend to dismiss the notion that Nelson is a good player, let alone a great player. It is what it is.

 

Granted, the jury is out with Nelson due to the fact he had a half-season of excellent play (though, I'd argue that Nelson began his ascension during the 2007-2008 NBA Playoffs). Specifically, people are curious as to whether or not Nelson can duplicate his ridiculous shooting percentages this past season, where he ranked as one of the best jump shooters in the Association. Who knows? It's entirely possible that Nelson regresses to the mean, a bit, but it's certainly plausible that he can replicate 80%-90% of his numbers. Remains to be seen, of course.

 

But if he can duplicate these statistics (via Synergy Sports Technology)?

 

Jameer Nelson Devin Harris Tony Parker Deron Williams
Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Single 1.03 1.02 0.95 1.00
Spot Up 1.23  0.98 0.94 1.07
One on One/ISO 1.19 1.05 0.94 1.00
Transition 1.06 1.10 1.22 1.06

 

(numbers are points/possession; all of Nelson's numbers are "Excellent" except for Transition)

 

Watch out.

 

All in all, what is certain is that Orlando Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy plans to play Nelson more minutes than usual during the pre-season to get him back in the flow of the game, in hopes of re-capturing the production that helped launch the team into the NBA's elite last year in time for the beginning of the regular season this year.

 

Rest assured, Nelson has been working on his game so time will tell. 

 

As for Jason Williams, this is the player that's supposed to stir controversy?

 

Jason Williams (2007-2008)
Games Played 67
Minutes Played 28.1
1 year adj. plus/minus -5.57
net plus/minus -4.0
statistical plus/minus N/A
PER 12.7
WARP N/A
Win Shares 2.0

 

Enough said.

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The controversy is a myth

Sorry lazy writing was meant to stir emotion from the average Joe reader. Such thoughtless writing should be the basis for having their media credentials taken away. It is along the same caliber of not writing Tebow in as All-SEC. What was the name of the bum that packaged this dog-turd and advertised it as a story? Was it the same moron that did the piece on Howard leaving for Hollywood….?

Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson

by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Aug 24, 2009 8:26 AM EDT reply actions  

*shrugs*

I don’t know, to be honest with you.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jameer is a stud. People forget this.

People are talking about Carter, Bass, Barnes… but perhaps the biggest difference will be the huge upgrade at the point guard position that comes from having a healthy Jameer back in the line-up. If I had to pick who’s gonna come out of the East, right now I’d take the Magic.

by Vittorio De Zen on Aug 24, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, we'll see what happens.

The key is to see whether Jameer can get back on track. That’s the question, right now.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's just hope Jameer has his yearly concussion in the early part of the season

So that the Magic will have him in the playoffs at his peak.

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Aug 24, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Hah. Agreed.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

With respect to Jameer, he wasn't exactly All Star material before last season.

There are plenty of players who seemed to have a breakout season, then proceeded to take a step back after that and stay there the rest of their careers. I don’t think he’ll go down that road, but only time will tell.

"Fun fact: Larry Hughes, who couldn’t stay healthy if all his human parts were replaced with bionic implants, is out for the next four weeks with a bruised leg. Do you think that Willis Reed ever reads about all these players missing time with bruises and sprained fingers and throws up in his mouth a little?"

by Diosnomeama on Aug 24, 2009 10:38 AM EDT reply actions  

You make a valid point.

I do think the possibility is open for Jameer to step back in production, and he may very well do so, but I don’t think the potential drop-off in his numbers will regress him back so much he isn’t a good player.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Grazie.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

If the Magic signed Williams mid-season, the "PG controversy" angle wouldn't gain any traction

Because there’d be actual games being played, etc. But since it’s the NBA Dead Zone, and people need something to talk about, they focus on non-stories like this one.

by Evan Dunlap on Aug 24, 2009 11:14 AM EDT reply actions  

Correct.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Some writers are morons!

Jameer played amazingly before the injury… Plus J Will is a sketchy 3 point shooter at this point in his career and makes some bad decisions with the ball in his hands… I don’t even know if he’ll challenge “Ol’ Man River” for the backup spot?

by chiefs_55 on Aug 24, 2009 12:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Williams will challenge Johnson.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm so looking forward to this season

While I’m going to miss CLee and Hedo, I’m really excited about what this team’s going to be able to do with Vince and a healthy Jameer, not to mention our other additions.

by RussL on Aug 24, 2009 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm pumped up. I've never been so anxious for a new Magic season, ever.

I’m cautiously optimistic that Orlando could be in store for a special year. I’m hoping.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

For the reasons mentioned, Jameer is probably the biggest question mark going into the season

Can he stay healthy? Is he really the player and shooter we saw first half of last season? While it’s tough to answer those questions at this point, they have nothing to do with Jason Williams. The only controversy there is whether Jameer will make J-will carry his luggage.

Here’s some controversy though — ignoring chemistry and going into next season, if you could swap Jameer for any of the other 3 point guards mentioned in the article, would you do it?

by CaliFlorida on Aug 24, 2009 2:03 PM EDT reply actions  

This.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last season, I would have agreed

Because we had Hedo as an auxilary playmaker. This season, even though we’ve got Carter, I wonder if perhaps Deron Williams would be a slightly better distributor and creator.

Jameer’s a better scorer than any of the competition you named, and I don’t think Parker or Harris are sufficiently better at creating compared to Jameer that it would be a substantial difference, but I think Williams might be.

Then again, Jameer’s leadership is probably just as important as his abilities and I don’t think Williams can hold a candle to him in that department.

by eltharion_doa on Aug 24, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh, I don't think there's a discernible difference between Deron and Jameer.

The Magic need a straight up scorer playing the point, which is what Nelson is.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Assists and 3 point shooting would seem to be the difference

Williams is a much better playmaker/assist guy; Jameer is a much better 3 point shooter. Also, without knowing the stats, I’m pretty sure Williams is a vastly superior defender.

by CaliFlorida on Aug 24, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jameer is the better defender.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scha, as if, and monkeys might fly . . .

Both are similarly unexceptional at cutting off penetration. But Williams is a much better post defender and causes more difficulties for pg’s seeking to pull up and shoot over the top.

by CaliFlorida on Aug 25, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jameer has as much strength as Deron has.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 25, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm making that part because you stated Williams is a much better post defender, when that's not necessarily true.

Jameer is as strong as Deron, hence he’s as capable to defend in the post because of his remarkable lower body strength.

Case in point, Nelson actually held his own against David West in a Christmas game against the New Orleans Hornets last year.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 26, 2009 7:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Disagree in a few ways.

First, you’re making a fallacious leap saying strength necessarily equates to a defender’s ability in the post. The latter is not wholly determined by the former. Strength is simply a component.

Second, Williams is noted as a good post defender. I just looked it up, and here’s what Hollinger said about Williams going into last season:

“As a defender Williams’ size is a big help, as he is very good at defending post-up guards and can switch onto twos in a pinch.”

Comparatively, I think you’d be hard pressed to find a basketball person say something similar about Jameer.

Finally, I don’t get the David West anecdote. I assume you’re referring to a single possession that had a successful result for the Magic? Jameer wasn’t matched up against West over the course of the game, right?

In any case, the response to that anecdote is simple — Chauncy Billups. Jameer’s ‘massive leg strength’ didn’t do much to prevent him from getting worked in the post by Billups during those Pistons series.

by CaliFlorida on Aug 26, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you told me last year at this time . . .

that this would be a difficult question to answer, I would’ve called you nuts. I don’t think I would swap Jameer for Devin Harris or Tony Parker. Dwight needs shooters and neither can shoot. For everything else Parker brings, he’s probably even more injury prone than Jameer at this point — his ankle problems are troubling, as is the amount of mileage he’s racked up with all of SA’s deep playoff runs. Harris is a good scorer but I don’t think he’s any sort of upgrade over Jameer in terms of playmaking ability and is also a bit more turnover prone, I believe.

by CaliFlorida on Aug 24, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s scary to think how good that perimeter trio of Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis is going to be.

Incredible mixture of shooting ability, passing ability and prolific + versatile scoring.

by NBR on Aug 24, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

say what?

While he may be the best shooter from the bunch mentioned above, with this team I would gladly sacrifice shooting ability for a PG who can be the primary ball handler (Hedo did his share in crunch time) and someone who can get Howard the ball in good position. This 2nd part I cannot stress enough. If you check most of the alley-oop highlights of Howard, Hedo was on the other end of most of those plays. If VC can bring similar results as Hedo in this department, then this is not a huge deal. But Jameer’s court vision and passing are aspects of his game I hope can improve. Outside of CP3, Parker, Deron Williams (and possibly D. Rose) I’d take a healthy Jameer over anyone else.

by cambi1 on Aug 24, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Vince should bring similar things to what Hedo brought.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if there's a statistical drop from last season ...

Let’s say:

  • PPG — A decrease from 16.7ppg to 15ppg
  • TS% — 61.2% to 58%
  • And say the assists per game + rebounds per game hold steady, plus the good defense

Even if he can’t maintain his production from last season, and if there is some regression to the mean … I feel pretty good about Nelson being able to maintain that lesser level of production … and at that level, Jameer would still be a heck of a player and a clear top 10 point guard.

by NBR on Aug 24, 2009 6:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I think those are reasonable projected numbers.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Aug 24, 2009 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

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