Orlando Magic News for July 9th: Otis Smith Making And Mulling Moves; A Look At Data Samples
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Magic sit tight as free agents cash in around the NBA
Brian Schmitz provides the latest information on whether or not general manager Otis Smith will decide to match Marcin Gortat's offer sheet from the Dallas Mavericks. He has seven days to decide.Because Gortat is a restricted free agent, the Magic can match the Mavs' mid-level offer and will have seven days to do so.
Smith has said he won't pay that much to employ a backup center. He will wait and use Gortat's deal as leverage with other free agents. The Magic could threaten to retain Gortat, whose contract would severely drain the small pool of luxury-taxed money they have available for players.
The Magic could match and trade Gortat to receive compensation this season. They would have to wait 90 days from the start of the season to deal him -- hoping that he stays healthy until December -- but that doesn't appear to be on Smith's agenda.
"It's doable," Smith said. "But right now I'm still thinking the other way [not to match]." -
Hedo Turkoglu, Orando Magic, trade exception
Here's the update on what the Orlando Magic will do with the trade exception it acquired as a result of a four-team, multi-player sign-and-trade.The Magic likely will use the exception during the season. They are not expected to use it in potential sign-and-trades for free agents because they would have to trade a player in the deal and they have only eight on their current roster.
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Nichols and Dime: How the Shooting Abilities of Point Guards Affect Offenses
Jon Nichols of Hardwood Paroxysm runs an excellent data sample to examine whether or not a point guard's ability to shoot the three is a key skill. Nichols provides a chart, and states his opinion after looking at the results.It appears as though the ability of your team’s point guard to shoot the three well is very important. Overall, the difference is more than three points per 100 possessions. Similarly, if your point guard struggles with his outside shot, your offense will struggle.
Two words: Jameer Nelson. -
The Not-So-Instant Impact of 1st Overall Picks
Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference takes a historical look at how the #1 pick in the lottery era fared vs. the top players from the year before over the following 3 seasons. For Magic fans, take note of Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, and Dwight Howard. The results are interesting but not surprising.As fans, we like to think holding the #1 pick in the draft is the key to an instant turnaround, pointing to examples like the Spurs in ‘98 with Tim Duncan, the Cavs with LeBron James, and even the Magic last year with Dwight Howard. However, recent history shows that if given the choice between a proven veteran and a talented rookie for the next 3 years, the vet will give you better production, and it’s not really a close contest. 67% of the time during the lottery era, you’d actually be better off with a veteran who had ranked between #26 & #30 in the league the previous season than you would with the #1 overall pick over the next 3 years. Only in the case of a select few first picks (LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Chris Webber, Shaquille O’Neal) would it have been a good idea to trade their first 3 seasons straight-up for the next 3 seasons of a player who ranked between 6-10 the year before, and for zero #1 picks would it have been advisable to trade a Top-5 talent from the prior season.
- Four-way trade puts Dallas Mavericks back in West's elite
UPDATE: John Hollinger of ESPN.com chimes in on Orlando's trade. -
Looking at the 2009 free-agent class
UPDATE 2: Chad Ford of ESPN.com lists the top free agents available.
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Comments
I saw that post and graph
on Hardwood and found it very intriguing, and especially significant to our team. It proves exactly how amazing Jameer was when he was healthy.
I’m still reeling from this trade exception stuff.
Yeah, I liked the graph because I felt it was extremely relevant to Orlando.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
It would be nice IFFFFFF, Otis One Kanobi could use it to get Tayshaun Prince. NO chance, I know, but it would be a scary line up.
Would be nice, but only in a dream.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Heres some trade targets along the lines of mainly using the MLE with possibly other minor assets.* The teams must usually want cap space bad in these scenarios.
Joakim Noah for TPE
Tyrus Thomas for TPE
S/T Gortat for Battier or other assets.
TPE for Battier.
Udonis Haslem for TPE
Rafer Alston for TPE
David Lee S/T for TPE
Paul Millsap S/T for TPE
James Posey for TPE
Nocioni for TPE
*Highly Unlikely but possible, and if Magic really like one of these players, they would do it.
Ill take Haslem or Battier tyvm. I also would think Noah/Posey fits good, and Alston is an obvious nice move. Magic can wait and see if any other players are open due to financial troubles and underperformance from teams as there’s still a full MLE Magic have yet to use. The trades could involve Magic giving picks or cash too, or using it along with S/T’ing Redick or Gortat is possible.
Stephen Jackson for TPE.
Its going out on a limb tho, b/c he’s a well liked piece, but with cutting costs and possibly change of ownership, retaining the young core and losing the veteran Jackson for cap space makes sense.
I think he needs the ball too much, we dont need some one to score. rebounding, defense and good shooting %. Azubukie wolud be nice but I dont think he can D up very well and he’s only 6’5.
posey is too old too much time left on contract, too much money.
I agree better finisher too. just dont think him and VC would be good togather, now that we have VC I think we need a SF that plays off the ball.
Another thing is most of the best defenders in the league play SF,I think we’ll be better off with out so much play making comming from the SF spot.
if we have a SF that plays off the ball (Tayshaun Prince) he would get tons of WIDE OPEN LOOKS!
VC is just what this team needed there are plenty of SF that can fill this role(I just dont see Pietrus staying healthy all season, I cant imagine Otis and SVG thinking so either.
Jackson would be a terrible fit for the Magic.
I like him as a player, but yikes ..
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I'd kill to get Battier on the Magic..
"It's difficult to win when you're outscored in every quarter." -Bill Walton
by betterthanburke on Jul 9, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Anyone else think Hollinger is daffy for thinking the Marion deal makes them contenders again?
Marion’s all star years are far behind him. This just sounds a lot like the Jermaine O’Neal deal last year when he went to Toronto. Everyone thought it suddenly made them contenders and they turned out to be much worse than the year before.
Hollinger is quick to pull out the "jump to conclusions" mat
And this is coming from a Mavs fan. I am much more optimistic now than at the start of the offseason, but no way do I vault Dallas up to the ranks of the Lakers and the like. No one knows how the new lineup will mesh together and the Mavs are an old team.
This just sounds a lot like the Jermaine O’Neal deal last year when he went to Toronto.
It also sounds like last year’s Elton Brand signing by the Sixers and Maggette to the Warriors…look how well that turned out for them :)
Yay, Roger!
Yeah, I was reminded of Brand and Maggette as well
And B. Davis, but since they were signings and not trades I left them out.
It’s like people saw the effectiveness of the Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett acquisitions and just assume that any good player going to a team will instantly turn them in to champions, but they keep forgetting that None of those guys mentioned are close to the caliber of Allen and Garnett, especially not when you combine them.
marion
is an enigma. he’s got all the skeelz but he has trouble putting them together consistently. the mavs’ top 6 could be formidable, but you never know how new players and a system will gel until you see it in action.
to me, it doesn’t look like a team that can compete with the lakers or spurs, but i’ll say this: if i was a mavs fan (which i’m sure as hell not, since they broke jameer’s shoulder last year!!), i’d be pretty excited by the talent level and pretty happy with cuban and the gm for consistently putting an interesting/exciting/competitive team on the floor.
Hollinger live chat going on...
That’s cool at SB Nation mobile commenting, no more having to go to iphone version full site to comment from my iPhone, chea!
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
I'll never forget I was in Philly for that crazy regular season Orlando come back, when Lee exploded in the 4th...
I wanted to comment so bad, in the taxi on the way back to the hotel, I went to the full site on my iPhone and literally had to scroll down for 20 minutes through 1500 comments, ah what a pain.
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on Jul 9, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel you
I was trying to comment during the Boston series when I went to one of the games (the one with Big Baby hitting the GW) and it was too difficult; I was lucky to get in like two comments before it got super busy. I wish the iPhone had a little shortcut in which you tap somewhere on the screen and you go all the way to the end of the page, kind of like when you tap that area on the top and it takes you all the way back to the beginning of the page.
I do wonder how mobile commenting will be like when we have the game threads up again. Do you have the new iPhone? I have the 3G, bought refurb just a couple of months before the upgrade.
Yay, Roger!
I'm sticking with my old iPod
The one that plays video, but is not touch screen. I was going to upgrade to the Touch, but then I got the phone.
Yay, Roger!
Awww crap
Last paragraph in the first story:
“But with another center coming off the board Wednesday — Zaza Pachulia re-signed with the Atlanta Hawks (four years, $26 million) — the Magic will be looking at pedestrian players to fill Gortat’s job.”
Obviously no way we could match that. But it really does reduce the available big men to scrubs.
raps targeting bass with flexibility created from our trade?
Aaron (Fredericton)
Riddle me this Holli, now that the Raps can use their MLE, who do they target?
John Hollinger
Frontcourt definitely. I’m hearing Rasho Nesterovic, they could also be a player for Bass. Apparently backup PG a lower priority — they like Roko, for some reason, and they can always go “No PG” like Orlando did if they have Turk and Delfino on the wings.
by Half-man Half-gortat on Jul 9, 2009 3:57 PM EDT reply actions
Good
Get him out of people’s thinking for us!
Nesterovic is an intriguing player for a backup C.
by eltharion_doa on Jul 9, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
boozer
now apparently boozer is on the markt b/c utah wants to clear cap space to be able to retain millsap (but doesn’t want to go heavily into the lux tax). jj and our trade exception for a one-year boozer rental?
Howard, Boozer, Rashard, Vince and Jameer. Bench: Peaches, Anderson, AJ and 4 vet minimums. Our bench would be thin, and I doubt DeVos would spend this kind of money this year, but wow, what a starting 5!
Boozer isn't on the market.
I spoke with a Bulls scout and he stated that the trade talk is BS.
In any case, I wouldn’t really like Carlos to be on the team. His defensive efficiencies are too glaring.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Smith now rumbling about matching Mssr. Gortat
Smith said “it’s a possibility” the Magic could match the Mavs’ five-year, $34 million offer sheet for center Marcin Gortat and trade him later.
“It’s a possibility, everything is open,” he said. “We can’t close the door or anything. As I said, it’s a big chunk so you have to look … if you want to get involved or not and how you’re going to go from there.”
by Half-man Half-gortat on Jul 10, 2009 10:00 AM EDT reply actions
boozer is on the market
hmm, that’s surprising, erivera, that your bulls source denied the trade talk — usually teams rush to alienate their star players by confirming that they are on the trading block.
boozer was all-nba third team the year before last — meaning that he was a good enough defender to be considered the third best PF in the entire league, he averaged 20 and 13 a couple months ago against the lakers in the playoffs, and at 27 he is just now entering his prime. yeah, i can’t fathom why we’d want a guy like that on our squad.
gortat
i love gortat, but matching that contract would likely be a disaster for us (akin to the varejao contract the cavs just signed — 50 mil for that dude?!?). godspeed, Hammer.

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