Assessing How Vince Carter Will Fit In With The Orlando Magic Offense
by erivera7 on Jul 27, 2009 10:00 AM EDT
in Analysis
51 comments
The pick & roll.
For the Orlando Magic, it's one of the team's "money" plays and its effectiveness was seen at its apex against the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals, as the Magic ran a pick & roll tour de force versus the Cavaliers and advanced to the 2009 NBA Finals for the second time in franchise history.
For Hedo Turkoglu, he was seen as a vital piece in the pick & roll machine, not only in that series but throughout the 2008-2009 season. The 3/5 pick & roll with Turkoglu and Dwight Howard was devastatingly effective because of the diversity in the end result. Either the play was designed for Turkoglu, Howard, or someone else.
It was poetry in motion, when ran correctly.
Now, with Turkoglu gone and Vince Carter here, one question being posed is - will the change in personnel affect the pick & roll game for Orlando?
Well, let's take a look at the data.
Here are the pick & roll numbers for Carter and Turkoglu this past season (via Synergy Sports Technology):
| Vince Carter: |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Single (18.11% of his offense) |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Double (15.7% of his offense) |
| Hedo Turkoglu: |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Single (25.76% of his offense) |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Double (15.7% of his offense) |
The statistics affirm what has already been stated - nearly half of Turkoglu's play involvement came out of the pick & roll. For Carter, it was a third of the time. Nevertheless, it's clear that Carter can take the reigns from Turkoglu and handle the pick & roll game for the Magic. Don't forget about Jameer Nelson either because he will assume a good portion of the responsibilities, again, in the offense.
The stats shown above indicate how often Carter and Turkoglu ran the pick & roll. The next group of numbers reveal how effective Carter and Turkoglu were in the pick & roll.
| Vince Carter: |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Single: points/possession (0.98) |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Doubled: points/possession (0.27) |
| Hedo Turkoglu: |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Single: points/possession (0.91) |
| Pick and Roll Ball Handler/Doubled: points/possession (0.31) |
The statistics are nearly identical for both players. For those that believe Orlando's pick & roll game will be worse off with Carter, the stats indicate otherwise. There appears to be no evidence to suggest that will be the case. Carter's efficiency in the pick & roll is "Very Good," whereas Turkoglu's efficiency is "Good" (when compared to the rest of the NBA).
In addition, it should be increasingly obvious by now that the Magic are upgrading offensively, when comparing Turkoglu to Carter. Turkoglu is a special player with a unique, albeit inefficient, skill-set but it doesn't change the fact that Carter is superior in practically every facet of the game on offense. Carter is a better passer, a more efficient shooter, etc.
If those numbers don't tell it all, it should be noted that Carter is a better spot-up shooter than Turkoglu. That is important to point out because of Orlando's reliance on spot-up shooting (roughly 30% of the offense this past season).
| Vince Carter: |
| Spot Up (14.22% of his offense): points/possession (1.21) |
| Hedo Turkoglu: |
| Spot Up (21.62% of his offense): points/possession (1.09) |
Turkoglu's number is "Very Good" but Carter's number is "Excellent."
What else needs to be said? Orlando Magic fans concerned that the team may miss a beat on offense withTurkoglu and Carter switching teams don't need to be. Carter is a complete upgrade over Turkoglu, offensively.
Defensively, that's a different story but nevertheless, Carter appears he will fit in with the team just fine.
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Just a thought...
I don’t know a lot about the Nets or who was setting the screens for Vince but having an athletic big like Dwight should make Vince more effective off the screen. The defense will have to make a choice crash down on Howard, load up on Vince or rotate off a shooter. I like the scenario.
I’m looking forward to the first Vince —→ Howard alley oop!
by The Stan 'Stache on Jul 27, 2009 10:15 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
You make a valid point.
The Carter/Howard pick & roll should be effective, maybe more so than Turkoglu/Howard because Vince is a more efficient shooter so he can make the defense pay a bit more when defenders sag off of him.
Brook Lopez was sometimes the PnR man for New Jersey, by the way.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Care to share where you found the stats?
Also, I don’t think I’m understanding the points per possession aspect of your breakdown, as at first glance that doesn’t seem very efficient. What am I missing?
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
.98 Pts/Possession is very effiecient.
What that means is in a 100 possession game, Carter’s team will score 98 points if they used the P&R exclusively. When you consider that this is only in the half-court set, you realize the efficiency. Add to this number things such as fast-break points, and a .98 ratio for the P&R would mean scoring well over 100 points/game.
Great points
It makes sense that half-court offense would be less efficient than transition or otherwise. Any clue as to what the normative value for a half-court offense would be? For instance an average offense this last year was ~108 pts per 100 possessions. Being able to unwrap offensive efficiency further would be very interesting.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jul 27, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know the value to offensive efficiency within the half-court.
To answer your question, I got the numbers from scouting reports not made available to the public.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Ah, cool beans
I’ve always thought about doing it for the Magic since I watch every game, but since I wouldn’t have the other teams (I don’t have the time for that, lol) its comparative value would be lost.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jul 27, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, there's some more numbers I have access to, which is real helpful.
In the past, I wouldn’t have been able to write a post like this one.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I think another reason 2 guards went OFF on us so much last year is because they didnt have to guard anyone.I really think this is a BIG deal, 2 guards are going to have to really work both ends of the floor now.(anybody see how Kobe did vs. V.C. last year)? Can you say season LOW? Wade said last year "this is the hardest 48 minutes you’ll play in the NBA right here (Magic) after a career game that was a LOSS, imagine if he had to guard someone that game! and I think at last this team can put some big win streaks togather too.
Totally agree
The elite two guards got the night off last year vs. the Magic. Not this year.
by CaliFlorida on Jul 27, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The Turkoglu/Howard pick and roll
was second only to the Nash/Amare combination in recent times. I’m sure Carter isn’t a slouch either, and all these numbers I don’t understand seem to agree.
"Fun fact: Larry Hughes, who couldn’t stay healthy if all his human parts were replaced with bionic implants, is out for the next four weeks with a bruised leg. Do you think that Willis Reed ever reads about all these players missing time with bruises and sprained fingers and throws up in his mouth a little?"
I may be showing my age a bit here...
Stockton to Malone
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
That's why I said recent times.
"Fun fact: Larry Hughes, who couldn’t stay healthy if all his human parts were replaced with bionic implants, is out for the next four weeks with a bruised leg. Do you think that Willis Reed ever reads about all these players missing time with bruises and sprained fingers and throws up in his mouth a little?"
by Diosnomeama on Jul 27, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
JULIUS ERVING and MOSES MALONE
is a great comparison to Carter and Howard……
Dr.J and Vincanity = two of the greatest dunkers and innovative scorers ever, both averaging over 20 points a game while creating some of the best NBA highlights of all time
Malone and Howard = two of the greatest prep to pro stars, both great scorers, tenacious rebounders and defensive giants averaging 20+, 10+ and 2 blocks a game
Just one man's opinion...
....."running mac games as if your name was Scott Skiles".....
Good comparison.
.. and yeah, the Nash/Stoudemire was a devastatingly disgusting pick & roll tandem.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I wouldn't call it disgusting.
Then again, I’m a little biased.
"Fun fact: Larry Hughes, who couldn’t stay healthy if all his human parts were replaced with bionic implants, is out for the next four weeks with a bruised leg. Do you think that Willis Reed ever reads about all these players missing time with bruises and sprained fingers and throws up in his mouth a little?"
I'm a big Amare fan, so I guess I'm biased.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
The one thing I’ve always liked about Vince Carter, aside from his game, is that as big as a superstar he is or once was, he never let his ego get to his head. Down to earth, approachable just a good guy to be around. I see Dwight Howard having the same character make up. Both have pleasant demeanors, like to joke around, and not buy into the “ghetto” look as alot of players in the NBA do with tattoos all over their arms and neck. I know that last part is completely irrelevant, but my point is they are both good guys and will have great chemistry together with the pick and roll.
Vince is excellent on the pick and roll.
Those numbers don’t even do him justice. He had one rookie big man (Brook Lopez) and that’s it. It helps to have a good partner in crime. Brook didn’t even run the pick and roll in college. He always looks for the pass to the big first (unlike Hedo,) and makes the correct play 99.9% of the time.
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
Yeah, when you take into account the personnel, VC's numbers are impressive.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Another thought....
Not to mention Vince can go the alternate route of being a sort-of slasher. I haven’t watched him much, but (off the top of my head) there seems to be criticism for him because all he does is pulls up on the drive. If he can penetrate the paint opposite of Dwight, or even when Dwight’s not in the game, I think that’ll help the spot-up shooters as well.
I can’t wait to watch this upcoming season. And finally get back into b-ball video games — NBA2K10, here I come!
You know.....
….I thought about it, but I haven’t played NBA Live since 2000, when they had Jordan…..I played NBA2K the same year and never looked back. What I’ll do is get a custom made cover with Dwight for 2K10, I’ll be damned if I keep Kobe on the cover anyway >:-O!!!
This.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Be careful with overinterpretation
Great post, but one minor point: The statistics cited almost certainly do not show that Carter is a superior passer to Turk. Rather, they show that the two players had roughly equivalent assist statistics last season. Any differences between those statistics are very likely within the margin of error.
by gift of the magi on Jul 27, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
I wasn't looking just at the assist totals, but the turnover totals as well.
Vince does a great job of taking care of the ball, whereas Hedo doesn’t.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
We need to take into account that Carter was on a bad team as well
All of the defensive pressure was pushed towards him. Yet he still put up similar numbers as Hedo. Playing with Dwight and Jameer should open things up nicely for VC
by Souwantmyname on Jul 27, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A valid point.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
How sweet would it be if we have a player that can average 30 points a game
I think VC can do it with the Magic if we need him too
by Souwantmyname on Jul 27, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
With Nelson, Lewis, and Howard on board, I don't think we'll need him to even average 20.
If he shoots to much I think that hurts the team.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Jul 27, 2009 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Ask T-Mac.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
With Nelson, Lewis, and Howard on board, I don't think we'll need him to even average 20.
If the Magic just lets him float around, Like kobe does, he can shot or pass. He makes the hole team better because on the nets, he alway’s got double teamed. that leaves dwight open. If he goes to the hole then passes that leaves two other guy’s open. we didn’t have that luxury last year.
I think that's unnecessary, given the makeup of the team.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
catch and shoot, not catch and dribble
One of the many things I diddnt like about Hedo was when he recived a pass on the 3 point line(open most times) he would put the ball back on the floor only to end up taking a well contested 3. shure he made a good number of them of them, but I just dont think its a smart way to play. Shard kinda does the same thing but he was way better at it.Turk diddnt create for others while driving to the whole like V.C does (something this team was missing last year).
Well when I think that happens its a judgement call
Usually when our guys do that is because a guy is running at them. The defender can do 2 things. First he can run past the shooter and go for the block. In which the shooter can put the ball down for a wide open shot. The defender also can run up to the shooter but stay in front. Usually the defender won’t be able to jump and contest the shot since his momentum will carry him into the shooter.So the shot is reasonably uncontested.
Its just a guess as to what Shard/Hedo think the defender is going to do. Yes, they guess wrong sometimes but that is bound to happen
by Souwantmyname on Jul 27, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
He did favor that catch, step-in, step-out, fadeaway shot, didn't he?
Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Brandon Bass: "I just play hard."
don't forget the "bail me out ref" flailing of the arms at the end of the drive...........
Just one man's opinion...
....."running mac games as if your name was Scott Skiles".....
.. the verbal flop.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Compared to Ginobli, he's nothing in terms of acting skills
"Fun fact: Larry Hughes, who couldn’t stay healthy if all his human parts were replaced with bionic implants, is out for the next four weeks with a bruised leg. Do you think that Willis Reed ever reads about all these players missing time with bruises and sprained fingers and throws up in his mouth a little?"
by Diosnomeama on Jul 28, 2009 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL
or step out of bounds, lol seems like 90% of the time Dwight would make a big block ,someone would dive for a loose ball or a 24 sec. call , steal ect. we just turned the ball right back over, it was a shame to see all the wasted defensive stops,hoping that will change this year.
He's an upgrade. I don't know about super.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Upgrade,yes. Super upgrade? Let's not be that quick
We should wait for the season and see. I know,I know,I can’t wait either,and I’d like to see that you were right.
More then an upgrade
With Turk you couldn’t garrantee what would happen when he went to the Hole. Carter was born to go to the hole. He doesn’t have to use pick and rolls as much. Also with carter you have a second oppurtunity for a double team. what will the other guy’s do? double carter or howard. It’s going to drive the other teams crazy. There going to have to play us one on one. Thats going to make howard twice the beast he was last year. Or Carter, or lewis or nelson?
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