Using Kevin Pelton's WARP to Access the Competition: Eastern Conference

by Eyriq the Red on Jul 21, 2009 4:58 AM EDT Comment 11 comments

I began an analysis of the Magic roster using a metric created by Kevin Pelton called WARP, or Wins After Replacement Player. The findings have been one part insightful and another part humorous, as WARP really, really, likes what Otis has done with this roster.

What does it say about the other two members of the Eastern Conference Big 3? Jump below to find out.

First a look at the Celtics. Now just a quick disclaimer, I am by no means an expert on what the Celtics are doing this offseason. The minutes I've aloted and the players I've aloted them to may not be accurate at all. Now that said, here is the table.

Player	MPG	Proj. WARP
Rondo	37	15.107
Pierce	36	8.057
Allen	35	6.996
KG	34	12.836
Perkins	30	5.23
Wallace	22	3.307
Daniels	16	-0.136
House	11	1.315
Davis	10	-0.085
Walker	9	-1.045
		Total	Team Wins
		51.582	61.582

WARP has me feeling a lot better about how the Magic match up against the Celtics. I mean, Rondo is their best player? Really? In reality I'd error on the side of giving the Celtics a little more credit than this quick break down does. For instance Big Baby showed that he was more productive in the playoffs than he had shown in the regular season, so if they keep him he could be a positive contributor instead of the negative one that WARP shows, and they may work him in the rotation more than I was able too. All in all though this team really does not seem like such the Boogey Man anymore, especially after seeing them through this analysis, which puts them 3rd out of the big three (I'll have to check Toronto as I suspect they may give them a run for their money. Then again, probably not).

The Cavs table is below, but for the faint of heart I'd recommend stopping right here. Still there? Ok, but I warned you. Take a look.

Player	MPG	Proj. WARP
James	38	27.459
Williams	35	6.936
West	34	4.356
Varejao	30	3.39
Shaq	28	10.906
Parker	27	0.554
Big Z	20	5.091
Moon	18	2.276
Hickson	10	0.376
		Total	Team Wins
		61.344	71.344

Ok, to me this looks like the Cavs have gotten better, and yes that is better over a team that won 66 games last year. The minutes and rotation will probably be a lot better than what I've come up with, but for the sake of this exercise I think this will do to get across a point. Don't sleep on the Cavs! LeBron is a freaking BEAST. I mean seriously, I don't think there is a team you could swap him to that wouldn't automatically make the playoffs next year. Hey, I might have to test that... But anyway, they are looking to be the main rival to the Magic getting the #1 seed, while Boston's window seems to be closing fast. Shaq is surprisingly still productive, but so is Big Z, so how that sorts itself out should be interesting. Cavs or Magic for the #1 seed next season, take your pick.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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thanks for the analysis

the celtics numbers are clearly the outlier of the 3 teams, and that is even assuming that their 4 old guys (allen, pierce, kg and sheed) stay healthy. i’d definitely love to have homecourt advantage over the c’s going into the playoffs.

by pinthatd12 on Jul 21, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, just from this analysis it is clear that they still have work to do, either in sorting out the rotation or in player development

62 wins is by no means a bad season, and Baby may be better than these numbers are suggesting, but that bench underwhelms and their core seems to be loosing steam. If we are going with a 10 game margin for error I’d say 55-65 wins instead of the above 52-62, but that is just a hunch. I will say one thing though, after looking at it this way (WARP) Cleveland is starting to scare me more.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Jul 21, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sometimes it's not all about the numbers, and it's about the matchups.

I mean, statistically, Cleveland was the favorite to win the NBA title last season when you took a look at efficiency differential, but that didn’t happen because the team ran into its worst matchup – Orlando.

Similar case here .. the Cavaliers will probably rate as the better team than the Celtics, statistically, but that doesn’t mean they make a case to be a more dangerous threat to the Magic. Let’s be realistic, Boston will remain a matchup problem for Orlando in the short-term, and I think that should be taken into account more. The regular season means nothing more than seed positioning and home-court advantage. It’s not unusual to see the best team in the regular season do nothing in the postseason.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jul 22, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All true. Stylistically Boston is the worst matchup for the Magic in the league, simply because they are the one team that ranks higher in eFG% differential, a typical strong suit in Magic wins. That said, I’m not convinced at this point that even with a healthy Garnett they are much better. The championship carnation was truly an epic team, but we’ve seen them wearing old quite quickly and they’ve done nothing to shore that up. Rondo is a beast but he is not much better than Nelson, if at all. Dwight should outclass any defender by next year, so relying on old man Wallace to slow him down, or on same ole same ole Perkins, will prove folly imo. It would be a dog fight but not one that I’d think the Magic would lose.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Jul 22, 2009 5:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed,but frankly,they ARE better,although not that much.

And Wallace IS a worth addition to Cs,IMO. He doesn’t need to play huge mins.
Also,as Pint said,HCA wouldn’t hurt…

by Dzogi on Jul 22, 2009 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm so the numbers confirm what I already know

Lebron James is a pretty good player.

by Lee for three on Jul 21, 2009 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His numbers are ridiculous .. just as a casual observer, watching him play is a treat.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jul 21, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It will be interesting to see how he and Shaq work together

I’m sure Brown will deliver some sort of gameplan, but they’re both players that do best when they can get into the paint. Congestion may be an issue.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Jul 21, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Should be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jul 23, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rajon Rondo

I think that Rondo was their best player in the playoffs. KG is obviously a lot better, but he didn’t play. And even if he did play in the playoffs, i doubt he could put up numbers this impressive. Here are Rondo’s playoff stats:

16.9 ppg
9.7 rpg
9.8 apg

That is absolutely sick. He almost AVERAGED a triple double in the playoffs. In fact, I put Rondo in the same category of elite PGs in the game —Tony parker, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Devon Harris, etc.

He is quite under-rated. And I think that he will improve tremendously going forward. His big deficiency is shooting, whether standing jump shots, off the dribble, catch and shoot, etc. All of it absolutely sucks right now. But that’s one thing that improves with age. I think everyone is currently aware of the difference in Ariza’s jump shot after just 1 year. Players usually do not make a monster move like that, but they do progressively get better shots, and Rondo is still young.

by plyka on Jul 21, 2009 11:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs