The "Magical" Four Factors

by Eyriq the Red on Jul 20, 2009 12:52 PM EDT Comment 15 comments

Four Factors

eFG%: +.055%

#2 in the NBA. The only team that had a better eFG% differential was Boston. This was and will continue to be a hallmark of this team and a big reason why the Magic win games.

TOV%: -.011

#25 in the NBA. The Magic are slightly below average at taking care of the ball, and horrible at creating turnovers, so this is no surprise. This is a big factor into why the Magic lose games.

ORB%: -.001

#16 in the NBA. The Magic are an elite Defensive Rebounding team, and a horrible Offensive Rebounding team. This factor neither helps nor really hurts our ability to win games (unless we play a team like old Detroit, then it kills us, lol).

FT/FGA: +.042

#2 in the NBA. The Rockets are the only other team that had a larger FT advantage. If they Magic could convert their FTA at a higher rate (they are currently last in FT%) they would easily lead in this Factor and become all the more dangerous.

Conclusion

Turnovers are from this analysis clearly the number one weakness in the Magic's armor. From the outside looking in the main culprits were Dwight and Hedo. This comes as no surprise to Magic fans, right? I mean we constantly moan about this and it was one of the reasons Hedo fell out of favor with so many fans. Replacing Hedo with Carter is a huge net positive in this area, as will be the eventual Watson for Johnson swap (in terms of who our 2cd string PG is). Bass and Anderson show no red flags in this department. So I think it is safe to say that the Magic can expect a marked improvement in this area just from the off-season moves to date. The onus is really on Howard to improve his ball control and passing, and if he does this factor will go from being a primary weakness to being at worst a non-Factor in the final score.

I just want to point out that Dwight has his fingerprints all over this analysis. His strengths are the team's strengths, his weaknesses the team's weaknesses. His limiting turnovers and increasing his FT% will go a long way towards lifting the team from contender status to perennial favorite. It is also worth noting that with the solid improvement to the frontcourt the Magic are primed to improve their rebounding too. O-tiz may have just created a monster.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

1 recs | Comment 15 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

all of your points are valid and i fully agree with you

especially the turnovers…. this is huge and if we ever cut down on them we will be unstoppable… we would constantly have games of double digit TO’s sometimes even more than 20! rediculous!

by MagicGator on Jul 20, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Getting the ball to Dwight early will help too, I think this year when Dwight has his hands in the air waiting for the ball he’ll get it quick.(that was soooo annoying last year).No Hedo is going to mean less turnovers IMO.(Im gonna miss ya Turk just not that much).Its up to SVG he’s gotta create plays that pound the ball inside quick before Dwight is tripled.

I cant talk about offensive rebounding or I’ll spend the rest of the day looking for SVG so I can punch him in the face!

As a 20 year Magic fan I think this is the first time were going to have a roster FULL of people who can contribute and not just roll players either.STACKED!

by D-RAK on Jul 20, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the 4 out 1 in is great for spacing the floor but terrible if you want put backs

The only way to get O-rebs is if our perimeter guys crash the boards from the 3 point line. Which is something our guys didn’t bother doing last year.

I would like to see the stats though on the Magic’s fast break defense last year. It had to be good since we never went for the O-rebound right?

by Souwantmyname on Jul 20, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah this pretty much sums it up.

When the Magic take a shot, Dwight is usually the only guy within 10-15 feet of the basket. So I don’t know how much that could change. But you hit the nail on the head with our turnover problems…that usually seemed to be the main culprit in a lot of our losses.

by Lee for three on Jul 20, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love Dwight to death but he really needs to work on his ball security

I’ve noticed that Dwight turns the ball over the most in 2 ways

1. He jumps into an obvious double team trying to make a play. This usually leads to him losing the ball in the scrum or putting up a bad shot. The easy play is to just pass it out o the open guy. I just think Dwight gets bored of doing that the whole game and wants to score.

2. Dwight has a bad habit off bringing the ball down when he gets the pass. Either when he is cutting to the basket off a pick and roll or receiving it on the post. In both instances Dwight can and does get stripped easily by the crashing guards. Marcin Gortat actually runs the play better than Dwight. Once he sets the pick he makes his move. Once he gets the ball he keeps it high, takes two large steps to the basket and either finishes with a dunk or layup.

3. When Dwight gets the O-rebound he brings the ball down gethers himself and gets a massive dunk. Guards are there once again waiting for him to bring it down

Dwight could easily fix problems with some intensive coaching. You usually learn not to bring the ball down if your a big in high school or college. The problem was Dwight was so good in high school that nobody probably gave him the proper coaching

by Souwantmyname on Jul 20, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant 3 ways lol

by Souwantmyname on Jul 20, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good observations.

I would agree with you.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jul 20, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is why i think offensive rebounding can be overrated.

If you valuedefense over offense, which the Magic do… its justifiable that you’d prefer to prevent fast break points over scoring 2nd chance buckets. It’s just a different philosophy.

by Jwoey on Jul 20, 2009 2:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

thank you........

Just one man's opinion...

....."running mac games as if your name was Scott Skiles"....

by hwyatt3 on Jul 20, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's Stan Van Gundy's philosophy and something he explained during the Sixers series.

.. he stated that he sacrifices the offensive rebounding aspect of the game because he wants to make sure the Magic get back on defense to prevent easy buckets or transition offense. It’s no coincidence, then, that Orlando is able to set things up defensively and lead the league in defensive efficiency.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jul 20, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good post, eyriq. Solid.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jul 20, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the kind words

I need to learn how to format better and grammar check a little more, but it is fun to contribute. Plus, through the 4 Factor paradigm you can evaluate how the incoming vs outgoing talent will effect our team’s style, which I feel that the net result will be very positive. Considering that a major part of the offensive load will be shifted from Hedo to Carter, and considering how much more efficient Carter is, one can only drool at the potential positive impact we should see overall. Not to mention Nelson coming back and the uber efficient Bass and Gortat filling up the vacuum that Battie left, and some. I don’t know how I’m going to wait till the pre-season starts, lol.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Jul 20, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs