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Rest Reared Its Ugly Head For the Orlando Magic In Game 1 of the NBA Finals

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More photos » Mark J. Terrill - AP

The Los Angeles Lakers, for lack of a better word, pummeled the Orlando Magic last night in Game 1, with a 100-75 victory that may have some people thinking that the Lakers are in the driver's seat to bounce the Magic out of the NBA Finals quicker than you can say hocus pocus or a pun appropriately centered around magic. But when taking a look at some of the numbers, Los Angeles winning in the fashion it did over Orlando should not come as much of a surprise. This is not an excuse, mind you.

 

Just an observation.

 

If you've hung around Third Quarter Collapse long enough or if you're aware of the rest days efficiency statistic, then there are some trends I'd like to show that can explain, a bit, the Lakers dominating performance against the Magic last night. 

 

It's important to note that a.) this stat was during the regular season and b.) the sample size is small but nevertheless, it's a good way to start painting the picture and explain what went right for Los Angeles and what went wrong for Orlando. 

 

Aside from Kobe Bryant going into beast mode.

 

Efficiency Differential When Playing With At Least 3 Days Rest
Los Angeles was 1st in the NBA in efficiency differential (6 games)
Orlando was 27th in the NBA in efficiency differential (3 games)

 

That's a big discrepancy. 

 

Some 'experts' may rationalize the Magic's loss yesterday as "stage fright." An assertion that carries legs because the Lakers have experience playing on the biggest stage in the Association, while Orlando is the new kid on the block. 

 

However, that's not the case in my opinion. Instead, it's as simple as this. The Magic don't play well with extended time off (on offense or defense, but I want to concentrate solely on the former in last night's game). If you think about it, the idea makes sense because Orlando is a team that relies, partly, on perimeter shooting to win games. It's no secret that the Magic were in great shooting rhythm during the Eastern Conference Finals and any extended time off would put a halt to that consistent play. If you watched the game last night, you would note that Orlando had a good number of open looks against Los Angeles and the players simply didn't knock them down.

 

Nevertheless, credit should go to the Lakers defensively for not letting the Magic execute some of the offensive sets (4-out/1-in, pick & roll variations, etc) people have grown accustomed to watching throughout the regular season and postseason.

 

But a little bit of the poor shooting can be referenced to the rest day efficiency stat. 

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Dwyer has another reason.

Dwight Howard was horrible. Absolutely horrible, on either end.

There was plenty of talk about Howard missing one of six shots. Only taking six shots. Only making one. Having no real impact in the scoring column.

We love to talk about offense. But it was his defense that was the absolute worst. He was a step slow on his help, all game. With or without foul trouble, and usually without any chance at picking up an actual foul. Late in contesting shots, and late in getting to rebounds on both ends.

But didn’t he have 15 rebounds? Five offensive? Isn’t that good?

In a vacuum, yes. But watching the game a couple of times, seeing him slow in reaction? Even without that aspect — just seeing the sheer amount of missed shots that were available to be pulled in during his 35 minutes of play?

by Avinash on Jun 5, 2009 12:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I have Dwyer's thoughts ready to be unveiled in the Morning After post.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well,it sounds like an excuse. and we don't need that,we are better than denver,just focus! we have a lot to say...

btw,LMAO at this post:
Has anyone seen the Orlando Magic? They were supposed to play in the NBA Finals last night, but didn’t show up at all…
some guy nicked “mskendall”

by Dzogi on Jun 5, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's not an excuse, as it's a simple observation backed up with some data.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think poor shooting is mostly due to rest,

and I don’t think stage fright can be completed dismissed after a decent start. FWIW, my wife the casual fan saw the game with me and her observation was that the Magic players looked lost. Sometimes outsiders can see things clearly, and it’s pretty rare for the Magic to be so lost so I wouldn’t count out stage fright.

But either way, no excuse in game 2, no more stage fright, not a lot of rest, and those rusts on Jameer’s joints came off a bit, so Magic got to play better.

by pcnyc on Jun 5, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sightlines

fact is, the Magic have played in the Staples Center only twice in the past 2 years. Unless a team is just on fire, and the other team plays shoddy Defense (both not the case), it takes players awhile to adjust to the sightlines in an opponent’s arena. You will see evidence of this in Game 3, when the Lakers outside shooters will struggle with their shots. LA will expect this, and try to play a mostly interior game, and look for Kobe to try to carry his team at times.

by tandur on Jun 5, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's another tiny reason. Familiarity with the arena.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Orlando looked lost because Los Angeles took them out of their game.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As Kobe would say it, it's about execution

Not any psycho babble reasons like “stage fright”.

SVG will make adjustments, and I think we will all see a more tightly contested Game 2.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 5, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All comes down to execution, agreed.

L.A. executed, beautifully I might add (on defense, more so). Orlando did not.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great quote from Pietrus postgame:

this was on a question about his defense on Kobe Bryant:

“I was trying to do my best, but everyone knows this guy is a legend. What can you do?”

Ouch. Doesn’t inspire confidence. But take heart. Kobe will NOT shoot high percentages the entire series. He will atleast one more time, maybe even twice, three times if we’re REALLY lucky.

by tandur on Jun 5, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It's easy to take a simple quote and take it out of context.

I agree with Stan.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But there may be a point here

Any defender that has had success against Kobe has bordered on breaking the rules : Bruce Bowen (no examples needed), Raja Bell (just shoving Kobe anytime he tries to get post position, getting right under him at other times), Shane Battier (always pushing Kobe in the hips, especially around picks, where it gets crowded, and refs can’t see), Dahntay Jones (pushing in back, tripping) … might Pietrus be too sportsmanlike in that he is not willing to play dirty? This is actually a good thing in terms of sportsmanship, but bad if you want to slow down Kobe.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 5, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, the Magic aren't a dirty team .. despite Dwight's elbow and Rafer's slap.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Simply enough, we didin't play our game

and hopefully we can bounce back and play well in the next game.

Cheese… milk's leap toward immortality.

by ratherfantastic on Jun 5, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

*didn't

Cheese… milk's leap toward immortality.

by ratherfantastic on Jun 5, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much, yeah.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can buy the rest theory

But that doesn’t bode well for Game 5 (2 days in between games), and I’ll assume that game will be played.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 5, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

2 days isn't an issue for Orlando.

It’s only a problem when the Magic have extended time off (3 days or more).

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, then, never mind.

Do you have the stats for 2 days, by any chance?

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 5, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure.

Lakers are ranked 4th.
Magic are ranked 5th.

Those are their rankings in efficiency differential on 2 days of rest.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts on last night's game

1 – The biggest misconception about this game will be that the Lakers played great defense. Quite simply, they did not. They played well on the defensive end but they in no way played great. The rotations were poor on the double teams…Orlando just bailed them out by missing wide open shots. I told my buddy last night…if that’s the defense we see from the Lakers the entire series, Orlando will win. There is no way we will continue to shoot less than 30% with that many clean looks

2 – This sort of plays off of number one, but despite only having one field goal, Dwight did as much as he could offensively. He had 8 points in the first quarter. Then the double teams came. Dwight made good passes, there was good ball movement, and more times than not it resulted in a clean look that didn’t go in. With our shooters that cold, the double teams continued and Dwight correctly kept passing out of them. If we are making our shots, that will open things up for Dwight later on.

3 – Our defensive effort wasn’t great, but not terrible. This game played out much like Game one of the Cavs series. Early on bad rotations got the role players involved. Then we decided to play Kobe/Lebron straight up and keep everyone else quiet. Both Kobe and Lebron were locked in for those games and were a bulk of the offense. Lebron had 49 of 106 and Kobe had 40 of 100 (and if the game was close in the 4th like it was against Cleveland it would have been more Kobe late in the game).

4 – Jameer played too many minutes. I understand him getting those 4-5 late in the game when it was out of hand just to get him more run, but nearly 24 minutes was too much IMO. I wanted to see him in 6-7 minute spurts to start the second and fourth.

So all in all that was probably the most brutal game to watch this postseason. Mostly because we had plenty of opportunities but couldn’t capitalize. Courtney Lee (3-10) shot the best from the field of all of our starters. But I’m still confident…namely because we did more to kill ourselves than the Lakers did to kill us. If we get the same looks in Game 2 we got last night, we’ll go back to Orlando tied at 1.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 1:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd disagree, somewhat.

Yes, the Lakers allowed some open looks for the Magic but that was the concession Los Angeles was willing to make as the team did an excellent job of eliminating the pick & roll threat for Orlando, etc.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well Cleveland conceded open looks from beyond the arc as well as we saw how that turned out.

If I told you we will get the exact same looks in Game 2 as we did last night, you can’t tell me you aren’t feeling confident.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I won't dispute that the Magic have a better chance of knocking down those shots next time.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know if you are a poker player E

but my take on last night’s game is similar to poker and that’s don’t be too results oriented. If you are sitting there with two pair and you’re going up against a guy on a flush draw and he beats you, it’s not that big of a deal. As long as you played the hand right, it’s going to pay off in the long run.

That’s how I look at Game 1. If you look at the final score, you say, wow, that was a complete whupping. And yes, it was. I think for the most part though, if that same exact game is played several times, Orlando wins that type of game more often than not.

Obviously the comparison of poker and basketball is more complex than that…that’s just my non-results oriented look at Game 1.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I play a little Texas Hold 'Em, so I get your analogy.

Tomorrow I’ll try to take a look at what went wrong for the Magic. There’s a few external factors and trends that .. sort of, cooked up a perfect storm of suck for Orlando.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha a perfect storm of suck.

I like it. Is there any way you can work that into the title?

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Continuing on the vein of the poker analogy and Texas Hold 'Em in particular . . .

Nothing drives me more insane when I flop 2 pairs or a set (3 of a kind), and I will start betting aggressively, but then some other player keeps calling my bets when they pretty much nothing but then somehow beats me when they get some lucky cards on the turn and river to make a flush or straight.

What’s worse is I want to yell at them afterwards about how stupid they are for chasing hands when they don’t have anything on their starting hand or flop, but I really can’t because, after all, they were “smart” enough to stay in the hand and allowed me to bet away my money right into their wallet.

What does this have to do with basketball? Nothing. I just want to bitch about stupid poker players, and this feels like a comfortable environment to me.

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Jun 5, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO.

.. well done, sir. A hilarious rant.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And just one thing I forgot

This is rather inconsequential to the final outcome, but I love how every team thinks that Gortat in the game is some mismatch that can be exploited. Case in point:

It’s the second quarter of last night’s game. Howard’s on the bench, Marcin is in. Lakers run a pick and roll w/Kobe and Farmar. Magic switch. Pietrus is on Farmar. Nelson is on Kobe. Instead of giving the ball to Kobe who has a good 7 inches on Jameer, they feed it into Bynum in the post who promptly gets blocked by Gortat. Again, this really had no bearing on the final outcome, but you would think by now just because Gortat only plays 10 minutes a night doesn’t mean he is a weak link defensively.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,

that’s one of funniest recurring theme in Magic games, the “WTF” look on opposing bigs after their shots got hammered.

by pcnyc on Jun 5, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Polish Hammer play of the night for me:

Was when he blocked Gasol—without jumping. It was so odd looking. It definitely cheered me up for about a second. Ha.

by Stan in a Van (Down by the River) on Jun 5, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gortat plays pretty good one-on-one post D

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 5, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on

He’s been hitting the weights this year, cut him some slack!

Smiley faces.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 5, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll agree with you here

I actually think Gortat played better defense than Dwight last game. I was amazed and a little worried. If he continues to play at that level and the rest of the team steps up, the Lakers could be in trouble.

by Worthy J. on Jun 5, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's one of the players

that I’d like to see sign with a different team. Not cause I want Orlando to get weaker or anything, but I just want to see more of him and it’ll be hard to do that behind Dwight.

by Worthy J. on Jun 5, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, many people here definitely would like to see Gortat to stick around but ..

.. it’s better for Marcin to leave Orlando and start with a team; it’s better for his career.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lakers didn't play great defense?

Not sure I buy that. Their defense on Dwight was great. They pushed him a little away from the post, threw a multitude of looks at him, and fouled him whenever he went up strong and forced him to make a pair from the line. They rotated well in the paint. They got out on the three-point shooters most of the time. Yes, they gave up open three-pointers sometimes, but that’s not because the Lakers were playing poor defense, it’s what their game plan chose to gave up.

Orlando has a great team. The Lakers knew that they weren’t going to stop everything, so they chose to give up a few looks from distance, something they’ve been doing all season long. Everyone knows that the Lakers defense is designed in such a way that it encourages teams to shoot the long ball. Yet they were third (if I recall correctly) in the league in opp 3 pt fg%. There’s more here than Orlando missing wide open shots. Besides, Orlando actually shot BETTER from three than two. 34.8% is not that big of a deviation from what Orlando usually shoots.

It’s reasonable to say that Orlando will definitely improve. Hell, I believe that myself and I’m still worried about game 2 as a Laker fan. It’s also reasonable to say that the Lakers will not play such good defense in every game of the series, given their notorious inconsistency. But to say that holding a team like Orlando to 86 points per 100 possessions isn’t great defense?

by Worthy J. on Jun 5, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I don't think it's great defense.

Again, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t good defense…I concede that point. Orlando missed a ton of open looks…that includes 2-pointers and 3-pointers.

As far as Dwight Howard goes, in the first quarter he scores 8 points, on I believe 1 of 3 shooting and 6 of 8 from the line. Bynum did an admirable job…but those 8 trips to the line show they were having a little trouble guarding him one-on-one. I remember one play for instance where Dwight put a beautiful spin move on Bynum and Bynum had to mug him to prevent the dunk. So he got his, even if it had to be from the FT line. When Gasol was guading D12 there was a double-team almost every time. Dwight made good passes out of the double and it resulted in a lot of clean looks…the shots just didn’t fall. So the doubles continued, keeping Dwight out of the offense. If those open looks fall, there aren’t as many double teams and Howard has a much better game offensively.

The Magic had a lot of good looks. If those open shots fall, no one is saying the Lakers played good D, let alone great D. The Lakers did some things well on defense. Orlando’s inabiltiy to hit the open shot made it look better than it was.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see what you're saying

maybe I just define great defense differently. Imo, if you have an effective game plan and execute it well, that’s great defense. Of course, it’s argueable if the game plan the Lakers used really was that effective or if it was just a case of missed shots, as you’re saying.

I still think that those open shots were a necessary evil the Lakers chose to gave up, and not a fundamental, fatal flaw but we’ll see if that’s true in the coming games. That’s the beauty of the playoffs.

by Worthy J. on Jun 5, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you hit the nail on the head with your last paragraph.

.. the Lakers giving up some open perimeter jumpers were a necessary evil, given that Los Angeles made a concerted effort to prevent Orlando from getting easy buckets in the paint.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was about to make a similar point

It really depends on how you define great defense. You could make a great case saying, OK Orlando shot less than 30% and only scored 75 points. There’s a lot to be said for that. And again, I’m not trying to say the Lakers played poorly on defense. They picked their poison and it worked out. Conversely, if the Magic played 2 feet off Kobe and only gave him jumpshots and he winds up shooting 11-30, I bet you are equally confident that Kobe would turn it around. Both Kobe and the Magic as a whole have a great track record as shooters.

I guess my overall point is this: If Orlando gets similar looks next game against a similarly-run Laker defense but capitializes on the open looks, are you still calling the defense great? This was essentially my argument above of a non-results oriented look.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The three-point shooting wasn't a big deviation from the mean, even though .. it was a little bit.

The Magic have shot 39% from three in the regular season, 37% from three in the postseason.

However, the two-point shooting was atrocious .. when Kobe outscores you in that department, you know you have an issue. That’s the figure that many are pointing to, as a problem for Orlando.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't Have Made A Difference

There’s no doubt that Orlando missed some open looks, but do you really think they missed 25 points worth of open looks? And remember, it’s not like you can assume that even a red hot team will hit every single open shot they get. If the Magic hit a normal percentage of the open looks it’s a closer game but still a Laker win unless Orlando cures a lot of other defects as well.

by Felix94105 on Jun 5, 2009 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, shooting was just a part of the problem.

.. Magic need to shore up on the rebounding, etc.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's so many more factors than just saying "oh, they should have made 6 more shots, thats 12 more points."

If the jump shots are falling than there are fewer double teams on Dwight, which means he is going to make more than one field goal. That changes the entire dynamic of the game.

IMO, if you are a good NBA player catching the ball in rhythm with a clean look, there’s no reason why you can’t hit 50% of your jump shots. Look at Rashard Lewis. He hit about 40% on the year from deep. That’s including rushed shots at the end of the shot clock, shots with a hand in your face, etc. Good shooters (which the Magic have plenty of) shold be hitting more than half of their clean looks. That did not happen.

Plus a lot of people will also tell you that teams’ effort on the defensive end is a bit more sluggish when the offense is doing poorly. I’m not saying it was 100% going to be a Magic win, but Orlando simplified the Lakers game plan by never forcing them to get out of the double teams.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

You make some valid points, but do you think it’s really pure coincidence that the Magic suddenly can’t hit open jumpers anymore? I think the Laker D deserves some credit in that the Magic looked like they were rushing shots even when they were open, because they were being closed out on by guys longer than those they were used to seeing in Cleveland. And I don’t think the Magic were getting their open looks from their favorite places on the floor – just look at the shot chart from Game 1 and look at all of the missed midrange jumpers. The Magic can hit those but if you’re the Lakers and you have to give up an open shot, those are clearly what you would prefer to see.

I don’t even think you can explain it away by Finals jitters or rust — the Magic actually shot pretty well in the first quarter. But after Jackson’s timeout in the second quarter when the Lakers went down by 5, all of the sudden the Magic couldn’t hit the side of a barn anymore. You have to think the Lakers did something to contribute to that. The Magic have gone cold before but not in historic fashion like in this game.

by Felix94105 on Jun 5, 2009 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lakers defense definitely deserves credit for executing a gameplan.

.. once the Magic were unable to execute anything in the pick & roll (though I’d argue that Orlando wasn’t trying hard enough and should have continued trying), that was that.

From a purely statistical standpoint, the mid-range jumper is the most inefficient shot on the court. Even though that’s the case, the Magic missed a good number of “gimmies”. The law of averages will balance out eventually, but credit the Lakers on defense. Orlando was ‘off’.

Part of that was Los Angeles’ D.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

"but do you think it’s really pure coincidence that the Magic suddenly can’t hit open jumpers anymore?"

That’s a pretty strong extrapolation. Just because Orlando struggled to shoot well in this game doesn’t mean they have completely lost all ability to hit an open jumper. Shooters go cold, just like shooters get hot. Again, I never claimed the Lakers defense was terrible. Whlie their gameplan of giving up open jumpers to combat points in the paint worked this game, I don’t think that will hold up over 7-games. Shooters will get hot, convert on open looks. Then the double teams will stop and things will get a lot more complicated.

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will say this, just taking a step back a bit from the talks.

Superb thoughts from the Lakers fans that have come aboard to discuss the Finals. This is easily some of the best discussion 3QC has had since the playoffs have begun. I just wanted to commend and recognize the great discussion that’s been occurring. The analysis has been good, the arguments have been thorough.

Well done, so far.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 9:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

You sound surprised?

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on Jun 5, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not at all. Just pointing it out.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's easy to do

when everyone is open to discussion and analysis. This place has been great for that. I feel for those brave few who try to make logical points on the Yahoo and ESPN boards.

by Worthy J. on Jun 5, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

HAHAHA - love that last sentence

It’s so true though. That’s the main reason I’m so happy I found this site. Make anything resemebling a legimate argument and it’s either ignored or you get a response like: TEAM X SUCKS…TEAM Y 2009 CHAMPZ!!!!!!

by Lee for three on Jun 5, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One Other Question

If the rest days hypothesis is correct, and Orlando was missing shots because they didn’t have a good shooting rhythm after all the time off, would a game where they missed so many shots actually help them to regain their stroke? The Magic have definitely shown an ability to bounce back from bad shooting nights, but if this theory is correct, they would have only had one game in nine nights — is that enough to shake the effects that you are talking about? Definitely an interesting hypothesis but just wondering how it plays out in practice.

by Felix94105 on Jun 5, 2009 9:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The results are a little mixed.

The sample size is small (3 games).

During the regular season, Orlando improved its shooting the game after the "suck game". Orlando struggled with 3+ days rest against Boston, then bounced back against Miami.

Orlando shot below-average against the Bobcats with 3+ days rest, and then sucked the game after.

The Magic shot above-average against the Suns with 3+ days rest (maybe Shaq was a motivator). Though if that’s the case, you would figure the NBA Finals would be a bigger motivator. But I digress.
Anyways, Orlando then proceeded to shoot below-average in the game after vs. the Nets.

In the playoffs, the Magic shot above-average against the Sixers but below-average against the Celtics. Both games occurred with 3+ days of rest. In both games after, Orlando shot below-average.

I didn’t include the playoff situations because I didn’t have the rankings available to me to put the numbers in context. But those are all the results, unless I’m missing something. I don’t think I am.

The Magic will bounce back in Game 2 (given 29% is terrible). How much? I don’t know.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 5, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

One other reason why I ask is it may explain why Kobe came back into the game in the fourth quarter when the lead was 20+ and there was no sign of a comeback. I’m guessing that Phil didn’t want the Magic to go on a mini-run during garbage time and regain some confidence, but perhaps he also wanted to keep the defensive pressure up to prevent the Magic shooters from getting their shooting strokes back. Pietrus was the only guy who seemed even close to getting back in the groove.

by Felix94105 on Jun 6, 2009 2:44 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That very well could be the reason.

.. PJax is the master of the psychological, so I wouldn’t put it past him to think that way.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 6, 2009 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't doubt that at all.

SVG kept his rotation guys in so they could put some good offensive sets together and have something to build off of in Game 2. So smart move by Jackson to keep his top guys in there a bit longer to try to thwart that attempt.

by Lee for three on Jun 6, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

are we talking about 3 days rest, or 3+ days rest?

…..just pointing out that the last time these two teams played was on Wednesday the 3rd, and their next game will be on Sunday the 7th….that would make it a 3 days rest for both teams…is this an uh-oh! instance that the Magic needs to worry about, or is it within the parameters of not-having-to-panic-yet for Orlando?

by elriel on Jun 6, 2009 3:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

please don’t tell me I’m the only one who noticed this!

by elriel on Jun 6, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's 2 days rest for both teams, not 3.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 6, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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