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Evaluating Jameer Nelson

This week, 3QC will take a look back on each Magic player's 2008/2009 season. Each day focuses on one position: Monday for point guards, Tuesday for shooting guards, Wednesday for small forwards, Thursday for power forwards, and Friday for centers. I'll evaluate each individual player at that position at regular intervals throughout the day, while Eddy will make a general survey of the position later in the afternoon.

Having previously evaluated Rafer Alston and Anthony Johnson, it's now Jameer Nelson's turn.

Jameer Nelson
No. 14 Point Guard
Points Per GameAssists Per GameTurnovers Per Game
16.7 5.4 2.0
Points Per 36Assists Per 36Turnovers Per 36
19.3 6.2 2.3
PERAssist RateTurnover Rate
20.6 32.1 12.6
FG%3FG%FT%
50.3% 45.3% 88.7%
eFG%TS%
58.0% 61.2%

All statistics in this table from Nelson's player page at basketball-reference. Career-best statistics highlighted in gold.

In his first four NBA seasons, Jameer Nelson showed brief, infrequent flashes of what he could become at the professional level. Sound decisions, sweet shooting stroke, energetic defense, leadership... these are all things NBA teams want from their starting point guards, and the things Nelson demonstrated on-and-off during his first four seasons. Finally, in the 2008 playoffs, he put together a consistent stretch of great basketball. It carried over to this season, when he became an All-Star and helped lead Orlando to a league-best 33-8 start. Funny how that works.

Star-divide

The first indication Nelson gave that he'd become an off-the-dribble assassin came in a November visit to Dallas, when he shot 9-of-18 for 21 points. No made three-pointers in that game for Jameer, but all his makes were jumpers in the 15-20 foot range. Teams elected to defend him by going under screens set or him. He punished them for it. This strategy of defending Nelson? Going under screens? Teams were still doing it well after he put the league on-notice with a series of incredible games in December. I don't understand that choice.

So Nelson earned some national recognition after blooming into an All-Star, and most of it focused on his shooting. But his playmaking improved too, at least from the standpoint of not coughing the ball up. Last year, in his first under Stan Van Gundy, he turned the ball over on a career-worst 17.4% of his possessions. This year? 12.6%, a career-best. To be clear, Nelson is not a distributor on par with Chris Paul or Jason Kidd. He is a shoot-first point guard. And while that term carries a negative connotation, it shouldn't in Nelson's case. He's a shoot-first point guard who shoots better than 50% from the field. As long as he continues to improve his shot selection, the shoot-first moniker won't really haunt him.

I'm not here to anoint Nelson as the league's next top point guard. He's not perfect. But for Orlando's system? One which features a dominant center and three other shooters on the floor with Nelson almost all the time? Jameer is pretty darn close to ideal. He doesn't make many mistakes, he can shoot, he has a good rapport with his teammates. He's no slouch defensively either.

The biggest question headed into next season--apart from that of his right shoulder's recovery from a torn labrum--is if Nelson can keep it up. There's a chance, however, slight, that his deadeye shooting this season was a fluke. But until we get any confirmation, all we can do is appreciate what he did for the Magic this season. And what he did was considerable.

Grade: A

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments |

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Jameer being a shoot-first point guard is perfect for this Magic

Especially since Hedo is here to take over some of the ball distribution anyw . . . oh how awkward.

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Jun 29, 2009 12:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jameer Underrated

Jameer is consistently underrated because of his injury. It’s clear that any person who liked Alston did not watch the Magic’s regular season. Nelson had an all-star year, but is labeled as “selfish”…Um Nelson was here before the Magic became an upper-tier East team. How can it be Alston’s team? It isn’t and never was. No one seemed to remember that Alston was heavily criticized for taking 3’s when he’s not a 3-shooter (the FInals was the truth). Jameer is still young and becoming a solid point guard. Jameer will show that this past season was no fluke.

by MetalStance on Jun 29, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

dude, i feel ya. its a bunch of non magic fans or bandwagon who did not see magic until the boston series or so. lol

by derekk on Jun 29, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jameer's "A" is well-deserved.

And I agree that we should acknowledge some possibility that his shooting will fall off a bit next season.

Also, per funny80sguy comment: Part of the reason why Jameer’s shoot-first mentality worked so well for the Magic is because Hedo shared playmaking duties with him. Fortunately, Vince is also a very good passer.

by gift of the magi on Jun 29, 2009 5:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Jameer's numbers will fall simply due to a regression to the mean.

How much remains to be seen .. but the dip won’t be severe.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 29, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

u mean he might shoot around 47% from the field and 39% from 3-land if he regresses? darn… LOL. i dont see any regression in his %s theyv been pretty consistent at high levels. remember he started out with about 12PPG at the start of last season before getting more aggressve under SVG demands to do so, and his %’s were always blazing hot, but they got a lil better and he hit the 50,45 marks at about 17PPG

by derekk on Jun 29, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nelson will regress. It's practically impossible to continue to shoot 50% from two and 45% from three ..

.. given that he’s a jump-shooter. Plus, defenses will key on him more and not give him that space.

I expect Jameer to fall back to his career averages, at worst (46.5% from two, 38.9% from three).

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 29, 2009 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The doubts are STILL there...

There are STILL many questions around Nelson, which are augmented by his operation/recovery. It’s THIS season, which seems to be FULL of promise and talent, that will determine his REAL value.

Again; it’s NOT about his great abilities, or even his commitment, but about his CONSISTENCY, and a naggin tendency to dissapear for looong stretches of time. And his recovery only adds to my doubts… we’ll wait and see…

by manny55 on Jun 29, 2009 6:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

only the playoffs matter, but yea we need to see more consistency from Meer, and he can be a top PG of the league if he does it. Im excited to seeing Nelson back 100% next season, he was THE engine of the Magic machine.

by derekk on Jun 29, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Nelson will ever be a top PG in the league.

Jameer has proven to be consistent .. just needs to keep doing it.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 29, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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