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Jump Ball Statistics

Ever wondered how many times Dwight Howard won the opening tip in each game of the regular season? Seems like a mundane statistic to track, and maybe some of you are saying 'who cares?' but thanks to the current statistical revolution occurring in the NBA, more and more data is being tabulated for the benefit of the general public to analyze & examine. It never hurts to look at different types of numbers. 

 

A few weeks ago, I enlisted the help of Ryan J. Parker of Basketball Geek to provide me with the jump ball statistics for different players around the league. I was curious about the numbers because you figure, using a little common sense and a little observation, that Howard should be among the leaders in the Association on winning the opening tips at the beginning of games. Is this true?

 

Let's take a look:

Using my data, if we limit the list to all players that have taken part in 50 jump balls to start the game, we get the following list:

 

The mean of this group: 54.1%

 

Shaquille O'Neal 70.0% 70 (57.7%, 80.1%)
Dwight Howard 69.2% 78 (57.6%, 78.9%)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 67.9% 56 (53.9%, 79.4%)
Samuel Dalembert 63.4% 82 (52.0%, 73.6%)
Josh Smith 62.1% 66 (49.3%, 73.5%)
Chris Bosh 59.4% 69 (46.9%, 70.9%)
Jeff Green 56.4% 55 (42.4%, 69.4%)
Emeka Okafor 56.0% 75 (44.1%, 67.3%)
Erick Dampier 52.6% 76 (40.9%, 64.1%)
Tim Duncan 50.7% 69 (38.5%, 62.9%)
Marc Gasol 49.2% 70 (36.7%, 61.8%)
Nene Hilario 48.6% 70 (36.6%, 60.7%)
Brook Lopez 48.6% 72 (36.8%, 60.6%)
Mehmet Okur 45.3% 64 (33.0%, 58.2%)
Andres Biedrins 41.2% 51 (27.9%, 55.8%)
Yao Ming 39.7% 68 (28.3%, 52.3%)
Kendrick Perkins 39.4% 71 (28.3%, 51.8%)

 

So that's the player name, % of time their team obtained possession, # of jump balls, and then a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion.

 

As you can see, there is a fair amount of uncertainty here. Even the guys on the bottom could really be >50% guys. That said, there is evidence to suggest Howard is in the top of the league in this statistic.

The fact that Howard ranks, essentially, at the top of the NBA in the jump ball statistic (behind O'Neal, ironically) during the regular season shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that follows the Magic closely. I mean, let's be frank here, Howard is an athletic freak so he's going to win his fair share of opening tips at the beginning of games. That's the perception, and with a look at the numbers, that's the reality. 

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Interesting read

Didnt know Shaq was still so good at that haha. I was actually wondering about this stat for Dwight a week ago.

by derekk on Jun 16, 2009 10:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I had this post cooked up for a few weeks ..

.. figured now would be an appropriate time to reveal the data.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL @ Yao’s percentage.

contributing nothing substantial to your blog, since 2008!

by misterterrific on Jun 16, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, that .. was a bit surprising.

But when I thought about it, makes sense.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Erick Dampier can jump?

"Oh, get a job? Just get a job? Why don't I strap on my job helmet, and squeeze down into a job cannon and fire off into job land, where jobs grow on jobbies!"

by Marie on Jun 16, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions  

Cuban wins again!

contributing nothing substantial to your blog, since 2008!

by misterterrific on Jun 16, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, I love how the starting center gets out-rebounded by guards

Just so I don’t totally hate on my other team, I am going to point out that Yao gets blocked a lot for someone his height.

"Oh, get a job? Just get a job? Why don't I strap on my job helmet, and squeeze down into a job cannon and fire off into job land, where jobs grow on jobbies!"

by Marie on Jun 16, 2009 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Yao does get blocked a lot.

If memory serves me correct, Nate Robinson blocked him.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I now wonder what the Magic's record is when Dwight's wins the opening tap

You just opened up a can of worms, e.

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Jun 16, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions  

Hah.

.. if you really want to know, I can find out.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

If it isn't too much trouble, that would be great

Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek

by funny80sguy on Jun 16, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure. Give me a few days and I'll see what I can find.

I doubt there’s a correlation but you never know.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Confidence Interval is unnecessary

Dwight is one of the top, it seems like the interval is only there because he is second on the list.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 16, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions  

The confidence interval is there to confirm the data.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I see

I was making that point because you can go either way with the interval – the player could be better or worse, but I see you are giving a margin.

"This is not a game for boys. This is a game for men." - Phil Jackson

by Gils_Keloids on Jun 16, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, exactly.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

82games.com did a study on this a while back

And found that the winner of the opening tip has almost no effect on the outcome of the game, (If I’m remembering correctly, it was something like 0.02%). They showed that the home team wins the opening tip almost 2/3 of the time.

Overtime tipoffs are definitely important, though.

by Jwoey on Jun 16, 2009 1:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I remember that study too.

.. and yes, overtime tipoffs are important.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 16, 2009 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

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