2-3-2 NBA Finals Format And Home Court Advantage

by pembeci on Jun 1, 2009 7:26 PM EDT Comment 38 comments

Here's this week's showcased fanpost. In this write-up, 3QC member pembeci takes a historical look at the NBA Finals and what the data means for the Orlando Magic. - ER

Last night at the game thread, I wondered if there was any team WITHOUT the home court advantage who reached the happy end at Game 7 after the 2-3-2 format became in play. So today, I went and did some research about the finals series played since that format was started in 1985. Granted this is a very small sample to find some patterns but it is still fun to look at.

To answer my own question, NO there wasn't such a team. The only game 7s happened in these kind of series are (A: team with HCA, B: the lower seeded team):

1988: BA-ABB-AA (A in 7)  Los Angeles Lakers over Detroit Pistons
1994: AB-ABB-AA (A in 7)  Houston Rockets over New York Knickerbockers
2005: AA-BBA-BA (A in 7)  San Antonio Spurs over Detroit Pistons

and they are all won by the home team.

OK, another question, is it all lost if first two games were won by the home team. Answer is NO, Miami Heat won 4 straight after losing the first two. Here is how the lower seeded team became champions:

1985: AB-BAB-B* (B in 6)  Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics
1993: BB-ABA-B* (B in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Phoenix Suns
1995: BB-BB*-** (B in 4)  Houston Rockets over Orlando Magic
1998: AB-BBA-B* (B in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Utah Jazz
2004: BA-BBB-** (B in 5)  Detroit Pistons over Los Angeles Lakers
2006: AA-BBB-B* (B in 6)  Miami Heat over Dallas Mavericks

Let's see if Magic can repeat one of these patterns. I think most likely scenario for doing that is split first, get 2 out of 3 at home and then win the 6th game away.

Here is the full list:

1985: AB-BAB-B* (B in 6)  Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics
1986: AA-BAB-A* (A in 6)  Boston Celtics over Houston Rockets
1987: AA-BAB-A* (A in 6)  Los Angeles Lakers over Boston Celtics
1988: BA-ABB-AA (A in 7)  Los Angeles Lakers over Detroit Pistons
1989: AA-AA*-** (A in 4)  Detroit Pistons over Los Angeles Lakers
1990: AB-AAA-** (A in 5)  Detroit Pistons over Portland Trail Blazers
1991: BA-AAA-** (A in 5)  Chicago Bulls over Los Angeles Lakers
1992: AB-ABA-A* (A in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Portland Trail Blazers
1993: BB-ABA-B* (B in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Phoenix Suns
1994: AB-ABB-AA (A in 7)  Houston Rockets over New York Knickerbockers
1995: BB-BB*-** (B in 4)  Houston Rockets over Orlando Magic
1996: AA-ABB-A* (A in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Seattle Supersonics
1997: AA-BBA-A* (A in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Utah Jazz
1998: AB-BBA-B* (B in 6)  Chicago Bulls over Utah Jazz
1999: AA-BAA-** (A in 5)  San Antonio Spurs over New York Knickerbockers
2000: AA-BAB-A* (A in 6)  Los Angeles Lakers over Indiana Pacers
2001: BA-AAA-** (A in 5)  Los Angeles Lakers over Philadelphia 76ers
2002: AA-AA*-** (A in 4)  Los Angeles Lakers over New Jersey Nets
2003: AB-ABA-A* (A in 6)  San Antonio Spurs over New Jersey Nets
2004: BA-BBB-** (B in 5)  Detroit Pistons over Los Angeles Lakers
2005: AA-BBA-BA (A in 7)  San Antonio Spurs over Detroit Pistons
2006: AA-BBB-B* (B in 6)  Miami Heat over Dallas Mavericks
2007: AA-AA*-** (A in 4)  San Antonio Spurs over Cleveland Cavaliers
2008: AA-BAB-A* (A in 6)  Boston Celtics over Los Angeles Lakers

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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Great post, man.

.. excellent data analysis.

I would tend to agree. If the Magic want to win the Finals, the team has to split the first two games on the road (been there, done that). That’s the only route I see Orlando taking to win it all. Difficult, but not impossible.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 31, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

can't wait.

by Dzogi on May 31, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The 2006 series

is exactly why I don’t like the 2-3-2 format.

Granted, it’s happened only once in 24 years, but the main reason I’m against it is, if HCA holds true through the first 4 games (as it does many times in the 2-2-1-1-1 format), Game 5 is the crucial swing game. By giving it to the lower seeded team, it gives them the momentum into Game 6, on the road.

If you win 3 straight games in a series, you’re more than likely going to win the series. By giving the lower seeded team 3 straight home games, it opens that up.

by tandur on May 31, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah,but

i don;t think there is any better way to organize final series. and,the team with HCA only needs to win their home games,anyways.

by Dzogi on May 31, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it shouldn't matter.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 31, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate the 2-3-2 Format

I just don’t think it’s fair.

by Golden Boy on Jun 1, 2009 1:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.. tell Stern, hah.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 1, 2009 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I were the owners of a home team, I wouldn't like it either

With the 2-2-1-1-1 format, no matter what happens, the home team gets at least as many home games as the away team (if it goes 4, they split 2-2. 5 games is 3-2 home, 6 games is 3-3, 7 games is 4-3 home). With the 2-3-2, a 5 game series has more “away” games than “home” games. It doesn’t seem logical that the team without homecourt advantage could have more home games than the team with the advantage.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Jun 1, 2009 7:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i say,if the "away" team closes it out in 5,let them have it,they deserved it anyway

by Dzogi on Jun 1, 2009 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

From a purely basketball standpoint, I agree

From a business standpoint, I’d be unhappy. My team was better (in the regular season) – why does the other team get the chance to sell more tickets/hot dogs/beer?

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Jun 1, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You bring up some valid points.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 1, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

another one of my misgivings about the format

by tandur on Jun 1, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if you have HCA and you're making a run at the title, you should be able to win on the road. i like the 2-3-2 format. it forces the top seeded team to truly prove that they deserve the title

by nowuseemenowudont on Jun 1, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate the 2-3-2

Worst idea in basketball. I can see the logic – wanting to cut down on coast to coast travel – but I just don’t think it’s fair to the side that did better in the regular season.

by eltharion_doa on Jun 1, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I actually think it's not fair to the lesser seed of the finals

Even if they split the first 2, chances are they’re going to lose the homecourt back because it’s going to be hard to win 3 in a row. At last if it’s the same way as the 1st 3 rounds, they’d have the chance to get homecourt back.

by Golden Boy on Jun 1, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure if anyone is willing to find the link but ..

.. I know for a fact I read somewhere that no playoff team has won two Game 7’s on the road in a playoff year.

Could someone find the link to me? It was on ESPN, but I forgot where I saw it. Thanks for the help.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 1, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The 2-3-2 format was apparently suggested by Red Auerbach

That explains why it feels so dirty.

by Snoopy2006 on Jun 1, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is an interesting format

Its better for the teams and fans, media and business having prolonged home stands instead of the 2-2-1-1-1. But,

it means the first two are more important than before. And with possible “stage fright factor” (which I dont think will happen with Magic) make it worse. The Magic need to win one or both in the opening LA stand, or else LA comes into Orlando’s stand at 2-0, and only really need to steal 1 from Orlando’s 3 games, before having 2 chances to close out!

But Magic really showed they can keep the home dominance last series, as well as have the most playoff road wins right now I think, so they are in shape for the championship.

by derekk on Jun 1, 2009 9:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I love it

I pick Magic in 7. I mean why not, we’ve been breaking trends all postseason.

Winning 3 straight is tough no matter who you are playing, but against the best road team in the NBA (Lakers) I think it is too much to ask. Of course I will, but hey.

So we need to split in LA and then do it again on the back end.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Jun 1, 2009 9:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Orlando definitely needs to split the first two games and go from there. That's an absolute must.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 1, 2009 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know you like numbers (I do too)

Here is a number guy whose system seems to be leaning towards the Magic. http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/06/nba-finals-preview-can-the-lakers-slow-down-superman.html

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Jun 1, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The guy who also thinks Rafer and Dwight are juicing.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Playoff Central

by Ben Q Rock on Jun 2, 2009 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hah. I totally forgot the connection ..

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 2, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The team with HCA has actually won all three of the middle games on the road more times (3) than the other team holding home court in those middle three games (2).

Interesting…

I definitely agree that the best way for the Magic to win the series is to split the first two games, win two of three at home, then win Game 6, though with this team, any scenario is possible.

ORLANDO MAGIC NBA FINALS BOUND!!!!!
LET'S GO MAGIC! LET'S GO!!!

by malars on Jun 2, 2009 9:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

It was my first fanpost and it is at the front page. It feels good. Just wanted to say I was encouraged to spend time on this because of the excellent posts by Ben and Eddie and numerous insightful comments here. It sure makes watching the playoffs and being a basketball fan much more fun when you can fill in between the games reading and thinking about staff like this. You can enjoy the games and coach tactics better this way. You can hear different things about the teams, players and games you won’t get from the MSM.

Thanks to all people who make 3QC such a great place.

by pembeci on Jun 2, 2009 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No problem, man.

I say this all the time ..

I always welcome articulate and insightful discussion. We have a lot of intelligent people in the community, so it’s always great to be able to discuss basketball intellectually on a day-to-day basis. It’s enjoyable.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 2, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This post got linked on the LA TImes Lakers blog today. So no, dude, thank you.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Playoff Central

by Ben Q Rock on Jun 2, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you have a link?

ORLANDO MAGIC NBA FINALS BOUND!!!!!
LET'S GO MAGIC! LET'S GO!!!

by malars on Jun 2, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Down around the 5th paragraph.

http://lakersblog.latimes.com/lakersblog/2009/06/lakers-magic-pau-gasol-guarding-howard-lewis-.html#more

Well, sir, you are a cowardly son of a bitch! You just shot an unarmed man!.......Well, he should have armed himself if he's going to decorate his saloon with my friend. – Will Munny

by pslakerfan on Jun 2, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Got some dap from the L.A. Times, dope.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 2, 2009 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The internets are sometimes scaring me.

by pembeci on Jun 3, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eddie -> Eddy

by pembeci on Jun 2, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The reason behind 2-3-2 is travel

Which is somewhat legitimate, I guess, because you only have 1 travel day between games 2 and 3 and games 5 and 6 and doing an extra La to Orlando flight might be a bit much…

Proud member of Duck nation!

by skywaker9 on Jun 2, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

.. that's part of the reason.

Another theoretical reason, which I’ve spoken about with Neil Paine of BBR, is that the NBA elected for the 2/3/2 format in the NBA Finals to give the underdog a better chance of extending a series for ratings purposes. I know some people here have alluded to that point, in which the format seems to be “unfair” for the home team. In speaking with Neil, that’s something that we spoke about for a bit over the phone.

All in all, looking at the numbers, there’s actually no difference between a 2/2/1/1/1 and a 2/3/2 format, with regards to the probability that the underdog has a chance of winning a seven-game series.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Jun 2, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs