Ten Keys For the Orlando Magic in Their Series Against the Boston Celtics
With the Orlando Magic ready to take on the Boston Celtics tomorrow night in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, I think now is a good time to take a look at the keys to the series for Orlando.
I wish I could address all of them (there's so many), but it'd be way too time-consuming. It's important to note that this list is an overview, and its items are not ranked in order of importance.
Involve Dwight Howard in the Pick & Roll - It's no secret that Kendrick Perkins has been one of the few centers in the NBA who has been able to effectively contain Dwight Howard this year, and in past years, due to his size (6'10'', 280 lbs) and strength. However, head coach Stan Van Gundy has an answer for Howard's troubles versus Perkins: the pick & roll.
It's unwise for Howard to strictly post up Perkins on the low block because Perkins has the strength to put a body on Howard and push him out of the paint. Instead, Howard needs to use his athleticism and speed to counter this fact. The best way to utilize those skills is in pick & rolls, which is what Van Gundy did for his franchise center regularity against the Celtics in their last showdown during the regular season. If Van Gundy can involve Howard in pick & rolls consistently, he should thrive on offense.
This is an example of what the Magic shouldn't do (via the X's and O's of Basketball). Notice that Howard is used in pick & rolls sometimes but he isn't involved - meaning the play isn't designed specifically for him.
After the jump, nine more keys to an Orlando victory.
Get Dribble Penetration - One of the best ways to break down Boston's defense is by spreading the floor and dribble penetrating to either distribute or shoot the ball. This strategy on offense is something the Magic had success with. The following is a great visual breakdown of this fact (via the X's and O's of Basketball).
Limit Ray Allen - With Courtney Lee out for the moment (which means Orlando's #1 ranked defense in the league takes a small hit), this matchup is going to hurt the Magic. How bad is dependent on how good Orlando can defend Ray Allen. Looking at the stats (via 82games), this is what's in store for the Magic defensively.
Notice some of the differences in the numbers. Playing alongside Dwight Howard helps Mickael Pietrus and J.J. Redick (makes sense) but look at the other stats. Redick struggles defensively with the rotation players, more so, than Pietrus.
There's no doubt that Redick is going to have a tough time keeping up with Allen (putting a body on him, running through screens, etc). Pietrus, however, is going to be important because he has the athleticism and size to guard Allen effectively, which is why they made him their big free-agent signee last summer.
Get Quality Minutes from Mickael Pietrus - Pietrus has had a disappointing campaign so far in his tenure with Orlando, but he can vindicate himself by coming up huge against Boston. Offensively, Pietrus is going to get the chances to contribute with Lee sidelined and the uncertainty behind what type of impact Redick will have against the Celtics.
Defensively, Pietrus is going to be an x-factor of sorts because of his ability to matchup defensively against Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. As mentioned before, Pietrus has the athleticism and size to guard Allen and also Pierce. There's little doubt that Hedo Turkoglu is going to have a rough go of it against Pierce on defense (a player who has bested Hedo in head-to-head matchups), which is why Pietrus will need to be ready and up to the task to guard Pierce when called upon. Did I mention Pietrus will need to be ready to guard Allen, too?
Push the Tempo - The Magic have to push the pace against the Celtics. Orlando was unable to do so against Philadelphia because that played to the strength of the Sixers. But against the C's, the Magic should run at every opportunity, for the basic reason that Boston is going to be tired from its grueling series versus Chicago.
This is an example of why it's imperative for Orlando to emphasize pace and tempo against a tired team (via the X's and O's of Basketball).
Get Production from Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu - Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference said it best when asked "which Orlando Magic player do you feel is most vital to the team's success during the playoffs" during 3QC's roundtable discussion, which took place a few weeks back:
Dwight Howard is the obvious choice, and as the Magic's best player he's naturally the cornerstone of everything that happens for Orlando in these playoffs. However, I think the play of Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu might prove even more important to the Magic. While Howard's numbers are essentially the same no matter the outcome, there is a big gap between the performance of Lewis and Turkoglu in wins vs. their performance in losses. Simply put, when those two play well, the Magic win; when they don't, the team loses. So I think how far they go will depend a lot on the output of that duo.
In wins and in losses, these are the stats for Lewis and Turkoglu, respectively:
| Wins: | |||
| Rashard Lewis | 18.2 PPG | FG% (45.5%) | 3P% (42.7%) |
| Hedo Turkoglu | 17.1 PPG | FG% (42.3%) | 3P% (36.9%) |
| Losses: | |||
| Rashard Lewis | 16.5 PPG | FG% (39.9%) | 3P% (32.9%) |
| Hedo Turkoglu | 16.0 PPG | FG% (38.5%) | 3P% (32.0%) |
Don't Lose Track of Eddie House - Injuries to Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe have put a ton of pressure on the Celtics' starters to carry most of the workload. They've also shortened what was an already thin bench.
But if there is one reserve Orlando needs to account for, it's Eddie House. Look no further than last night to see the impact House can have for Boston in the team's series-clinching win over Chicago. Eddie accounted for 16 of the bench's 30 points, shooting 5-of-5 from the field and 4-of-4 from three-point range.
When he's on, House can fill it up from beyond the arc in a hurry and it's important that the Magic make sure that doesn't happen. If Orlando can limit House's productivity and force the likes of Stephon Marbury, Mikki Moore, and Brian Scalabrine to step up and produce, the better off the Magic will be.
Get the Opposing Bigs in Foul Trouble - As mentioned already, with the Boston bench depleted (specifically, the frontline for the Celtics), Dwight Howard could be in for a field day if he is able to get Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins in foul trouble in each game. The last line of defense for the C's would be Mikki Moore, a lanky big man (6'11'', 220 lbs) who lacks the strength to contain Dwight Howard in the paint.
Force Turnovers - The Magic weren't adept to forcing turnovers during the regular season (26th in turnover %) but if the team is able to force the Celtics to cough it up, the better. Boston is 38-8 this season when turning the ball over 15 times or fewer. In Orlando's two wins over the C's in the regular season, the team forced 17 turnovers and 18 turnovers, respectively. In the Magic's losses against the Celtics, the team forced 11 turnovers in each game. Notice the trend?
Contain Rajon Rondo - When Rondo goes, so do the Celtics and with Kevin Garnett out, he has stepped up his game in a big and impressive way. Orlando should be able to do a better job of containing Rondo better than Chicago did for two reasons, Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard. First, Alston is a better defender than Derrick Rose:
| Rafer Alston | Derrick Rose | |
| adj. defensive plus/minus | +0.86 | +7.87 |
| opponent PER | 15.2 | 15.4 |
| net defensive plus/minus | +0.8 | +7.8 |
| eFG% allowed | 46.8% | 50.1% |
Second, having Howard looming in the lane will discourage Rondo from entering the lane and wreak havoc in a variety of ways (passing, shooting, rebounding). If Orlando is able to deter Rondo from being able to drive and kick the ball, the team will be better off. If Orlando is able to force Rondo to settle for jumpers, the team will be better off. If Orlando is able to prevent Rondo from getting rebounds (especially on the offensive end), the team will be better off. I can go on but you get the idea.
If the Magic are able to execute a majority of these strategies with success against the Celtics, then the team will put itself in great position to advance further in the playoffs. The test for Orlando begins tomorrow at Boston in Game 1.
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33 comments
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Comments
Great stuff again, E
Even got the video evidence this time, nice!
After reading that, it seems like the Magic might not have as hard a time with them as most think. Lee’s return will be the key, as will Hedo’s D on Pierce (assuming MP gets the bulk of the minutes on Ray). Those 2 (Ray and Pierce) are the only things that scare me about this match-up. I will not feel comfortable in a close game if one of those two have the ball in their hands for the last shot.
by bandrewg08 on May 3, 2009 10:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, man.
Yeah, went with some visual evidence this time along with the typical numbers breakdown. I figured it’d be better to see what I’m talking about rather than read about it. Anyways, with all that said ..
.. I’m with you. My main concern coming into the series is Allen and Pierce. I don’t think Rondo will be able to duplicate the successes he had against the Magic as he did against the Bulls. If Orlando can do its best damage control on Allen and Pierce, I think the team will be okay from a defensive standpoint.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 3, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree on Rondo
I think many believe Rondo will have his way against Rafer as he did for the most part against Rose (too many R’s). Rafer obviously has more experience than the rookie Rose. And that one thing you showed me a while back about Alston being the #2 Defensive rated PG (I think BasketballReference?).
I’m not saying he’s gonna shut him down, but I do believe he will come back down to earth a.k.a. no averaging triple doubles. I actually don’t really remember, but I don’t think he really had any spectacular games against us. The only standouts I remember were Pierce, Ray, and Baby. I could be wrong though. I don’t feel like looking it up.
by bandrewg08 on May 4, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're thinking of Basketball Prospectus (with regards to Alston).
With Nelson and Alston, the Magic have been able to neutralize Rondo.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beating the much hated Celtics
Even though i’m not a fan of Orlando, you have my entire support in your efforts to rid the basketball universe of the watching this team that wears the ugliest of jerseys advancing to the conference finals.
I hope you guys beat them to a pulp, they got away with murder in the first round against Chicago courtesy of the refs!!.
by Jamaican_Mamba_KB24 on May 3, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I doubt the Magic will beat the Celtics to a pulp.
Won’t be that easy .. it’s going to be a hard-fought series.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL @ Kobe fan
delusional fan doesnt realize that this is just a game, and the poor poor cry baby still isnt over the celtics winning against kobe
by PaintItBlack on May 4, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who cares.
Kobe is completely irrelevant to this discussion.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rajon Rondo caused a huge amount of problems for Rafer Alston when Rafer was back in Houston. His speed was a real problem for Rafer on both ends of the court — they had a little tussle once or twice too, when Rafer’s frustrations got to much for him — Aaron Brooks did a better job on Rondo, he had the quickness to keep up with him.
by NBR on May 4, 2009 6:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont think Brooks ever did a better job then alston, brooks may be fast, but he wasnt strong enough to do anything to stop rondo, he can just combat it by attacking rondo on the offensive end
by PaintItBlack on May 4, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Basing it off one game in particular ....
I was thinking specifically about a game in Boston last season, back in January. It was a close game that went down to the wire with KG nailing some big shots to win the game. Very good game.
Brooks’ defense in that game, against Rondo, was excellent. Especially when Brooks pressured the ball, he completely took Rondo out of his rhythm and was a huge reason why Houston were hanging in the game despite some so-so performances elsewhere (Bonzi+Scola had great games too). He limited Rondo’s dribble penetration and made Boston use more clock to set up their offense.
By the way, Houston need to make Brooks pressure the ball more often, they’d get a lot of joy out of it. He hardly ever does it, but every time I’ve seen him put real effort+focus into it, he’s been very good at it.
Rafer’s defense that night was very poor and one of the main reasons why Houston were struggling defensively … and it was poor in the other meetings between Houston and Boston that I saw — three games, I think one was a preseason game.
Brooks defense against Rondo in the subsequent games between the two sides was mediocre (they should have had him pressure the ball more often, he stopped doing it).
by NBR on May 4, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, Alston's play in Houston is irrelevant.
Yeah, you can refer to it, but Rafer (so far) has been able to neutralize Rondo with Orlando. Plus again, having Dwight Howard in the paint is going to pay dividends defensively for the Magic.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct.
Been watching him cover Rondo with Orlando. On him like glue. No lack of quickness from here. Rafer is A Rocket ! He will be key.
The Surfdog
by Surfdog on May 4, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Alston is going to be vital .. especially on defense.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to articulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the team’s defense + rebounding will be good enough to put the team in position to win games, but the offense looks a question mark. It’ll be a very difficult series if Orlando repeat their performance levels from the last series — I’d expect a lot of close, low scoring games, if that happened.
Hedo Turkoglu needs to have a good series.
by NBR on May 4, 2009 6:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Magic own the #1 defense in the NBA. That won't be a problem.
.. and the Celtics defense isn’t the same. Cue in Kevin Pelton ..
As John Hollinger has pointed out, the Celtics truly missed last season’s Defensive Player of the Year and the anchor of the league’s best defense in 2007-08. Boston still finished the season with the league’s second best Defensive Rating, trailing only the Orlando Magic, but the Celtics saw their points allowed per 100 possessions shoot up from 100.8 with Garnett—far better than the Magic’s 103.0 Defensive Rating—to a whopping 109.6 when Garnett sat out.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I was trying to say — the defense + rebounding is reliable and will be an advantage for the Magic, but where they win or lose this series will be on the offensive end.
The offense is the variable in the mix, the question mark, the uncertainty. The difference between Orlando being a huge favourite, or a team in a dogfight.
by NBR on May 4, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a question mark, sure. I'm just pointing out what Orlando's offense will be up against.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, okay, I didn’t understand what you meant.
by NBR on May 4, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No worries.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not upset
LOL @ Kobe fan
delusional fan doesnt realize that this is just a game, and the poor poor cry baby still isnt over the celtics winning against kobe
*****************************************
Nope I’m not upset at Boston winning last year (even though they got away with a ton of illegal screens and hand checks) I was upset with my team for not realizing how the refs were calling the game and adjusting their play accordingly. That being said Boston won it and praise to them.
Any way i never did and still dont like the Celtics, I just can’t explain it except to say there’s this feeling of disgust anytime i see them, that was the case in the 80’s 90’s and now.
I think the series should be pretty interesting and Howard will have his way in the paint against Big Baby and Perkins. I hope Hedo and Lewis turn up during the series, because they will stretch the over rated Boston defense.
My money is on Orlando to win it in 6.
ps I think if the Magic make it to the east finals they will beat the Crabs/Cavs. I know LBJ is having a terrific year but from what i’ve seen this year i think Orlando poses match up nightmares for them.
by Jamaican_Mamba_KB24 on May 4, 2009 8:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We'll see. Must take things one step at a time.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great breakdown
My responses are up on CelticsBlog
looking forward to reading your thoughts all series long
cheers
"We few, we happy few, we band of brothers" Henry V
by Jeff Clark on May 4, 2009 8:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, Jeff.
I appreciate the kind words.
Good luck to the C’s and I look forward to reading your thoughts as well!
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Said it last week, sayin g it again.
Magic in 6.
Sports Picks 365
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on May 4, 2009 9:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree
As much as I don’t want to pick 6, since everybody is saying that… But I do agree with 6
by bandrewg08 on May 4, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No problem.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i believe most of us did,but...
if anyone missed to check thing from their perspective,try
http://www.celticsblog.com/2009/5/4/864154/keys-to-the-series
it’s an interesting post.
by Dzogi on May 4, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I read it. It was good.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Some of your smartest have tried to artictulate/My whole part in this/But they're fruitless in their harvestin' - Lupe Fiasco
by erivera7 on May 4, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you. I appreciate it.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs






















