Our free agents to be, and this playoff run
by RussL on May 29, 2009 1:47 PM EDT
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PrintI know its early to have this conversation, but its something I cannot stop thinking about. My specific question is this: How does this deep playoff run affect our soon to be free agents?
Are Turkoglu and Gortat motivated to stay, for less money, and be part of a perennial championship contender? Or do they choose to cash in on the individual successes they've had, and sign the biggest possible contract now that their respective values are at an all-time high? Turkoglu in particular has seen his value soar this postseason.
Will the Magic front office feel pressure from the fans to keep the team intact, after its success this year? Will the jump in season ticket sales have any effect on their decision?
Will Turk and/or Gortat feel disrespected if the Magic don't offer as much as others - will they feel like this team doesn't value them enough?
So many questions... Any thoughts?
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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Hope Turk and Gortat both stays
.. but in the event that he doesn’t, we need to make some quick changes to fill in that SF void we’ll be having once he’s gone. I like MP at SF, but it won’t be the same as having a 6’10" point-forward at that spot.
All great questions.
I don’t know if this playoff run is going to have a great effect yet because in this Game it seems you are only as good as your last game. (perception wise) But that being said they could go ALL THE WAY in which case the values will soar even more depending on play. However it will all come down to respect and money. Unfortunately i have sen this scenario play out with other teams and loyalty to team becomes null and void from both sides because of $. Look how many great players who played well went bye-bye after the playoffs. Looking at Turk he is playing so happy and loose right now it almost seems like he knows something. Hope it’s all good.
The Surfdog
Semantics aside, Hedo will probably stay. Gortat will probably go.
The Magic can’t afford both players without dipping into the luxury tax, which Otis Smith has indicated that the organization will not do.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
If they lose Turk they lose a major match-up problem for other teams.
changes the whole complexion of the team. IMO. And if Gortat goes it compounds things. 2 pretty BIG pieces of the puzzle will be gone.
The Surfdog
Yeah, Turk is a unique player.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Which is why Dwayne Wade is coming to the Orlando Magic via sign and trade ;)
I think Magic are perenial title contenders seriously. I think the chances will be hurt if Turk is lost, but not Gortat. Its likely Turk stays and thats enough for the Magic to grab a title or two before all the core contracts finish in 2012 because remember alot of playoff defense has the Magic guards daring to attack and clamping down the forwards/Dwight, but Nelson is the most accurate shooter in the league or just about, and Courtney Lee already did a large chunk of offense for the Magic in round 1 as a ROOKIE! Imagine the growth of him plus Dwight expanding to jumpers or upping FT%. If both Turk/Gortat is lost, the Magic can still attract a nice near 10mil piece… or get another star from another team to demand the trade to Magic, and Magic will lose some current big pieces, but come away with a dynasty in form of a Wade, Bosh, etc. to pair with Dwight Howard. Hello! Who wants to win multiple titles with you dominating the wings and Dwight the best in the paint of the league? Its not just some offensive power of Dwight that should garner stars to Orlando either, its that he absolutely is dominating in boards, blocks, and defense.
Magic can't attract a $10 million dollar contact if Turkoglu and Gortat were to leave.
.. it’s not fiscally possible, unless Otis Smith were to do some major roster shuffling.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Oh
Im not saying you’re wrong, because you are very likely right. But how is Turkoglu’s camp asking for 10mil right now? If they negotiate, it could be 8-9-ish mil next season.
It's not that Turk's asking for 10 million
It’s that after we lose all our free agents, we’re 4 million or so under the cap. We can’t afford big free agents this off-season.
"And this he knows if nothing more
That waiting in the dark like destiny
Are those who kissed the dogs of war
And there is no tomorrow."
Unless we manage to unload two of: Alston, Battie, Pietrus.
And get nothing in return. Which is probably not possible — anyone who can take on two $5 mil contracts has enough cap room to make their OWN run for a big free agent.
Yeah, and we broke your damn shot clock too.
Orlando doesn't need to unload two of those players, just one.
.. ideally Rafer, given his value is high right now.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
It's not the cap, it's the luxury tax.
People need to stop confusing the two. The Magic will be over the cap but under the tax. With that being said, Orlando should be able to work something out with Hedo but that’s it.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
I think we keep Turk, lose Gortat.
Turk knows he’s got a good thing here. He’s had the best years of his career on this team under this coach. Orlando is probably the ideal situation for him in terms of his own production. Plus, he’s a key starter on a team which has three All-Star caliber players in Howard, Nelson, and Lewis, all locked up through 2013. (And also Lee long-term.) If the Magic retain Turk, they’re looking at a contending team every year for the indefinite future. This is going to be Turk’s last big contract, if not his last overall. I can’t imagine he wants to play out his career on a non-contending team.
All that would probably be enough, but let’s also consider that nobody is going to significantly outbid the Magic. If we’re willing to go to $8-9 million (and I can’t imagine we’re not), some other team would have to go into eight digits for Turk. And I can’t imagine anyone thinks Turk is worth that; that’s approaching max territory. He’s worth more to us than to anyone else. He’s clearly an $8-$9 million player on this team, and may very well not be one on another team.
Gortat is another story. He’s young. He has to go out and do his own thing. And at this point, “his own thing” should be a starting center job somewhere. He’s never going to start in Orlando — he’s trapped behind Howard. Even if the money was the same, I can’t see Gortat shooting his career in the foot like that.
Yeah, and we broke your damn shot clock too.
Turkish NBA analysts
are saying almost the same things as 3.3seconds about Hedo’s future and I believe they may have some inside knowledge about his thinking. Bottomline is there is no other team/system where he can be as valuable and has a shot at a ring (he may even get one this year).
I also believe Magic ownership can reconsider going over the luxury tax after this year’s playoff run. Remember that, they brought Alston without worrying about the extra dollars rather than calling it quits for the season after Jameer’s injury. This shows they believe in this team’s potential and willing to spend for a championship.
nope. just because he's turkish,
and they are,that does not mean a thing. that is exactly the same thing as if i now come and claim i know what pavlovic is going to do,cause we’re both from serbia. no,ma’am. or stojakovic.
nope,we here are only guessing,and you know better than us,and you know everything before us(which is normal in this case)
in general
yes, having the same nationality doesn’t give you inside knowledge. I agree. But these two guys I was referring at my post are friends with Hedo. Their relationship is not just journalist-player. In any case, I doubt Hedo knows certainly what he will do. He has to see how this season ends and listen to Magic’s and other teams’ offers. But there is a great chance he will calculate his options from the angle of points raised in this thread and chose to stay.
I would be shocked, personally, if Hedo didn't stick around.
The people I’ve spoken to are certain that Turkoglu will stay.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
oh,that's super. i am hoping he'll choose to stay
as for the nationality,you should read our local newspaper and their writings about guys playing across the pond. it’s always copy/paste from some site/forum/blog.
i actually found text in the paper called “sport”,which was EXACT copy of the text i read earlier on yahoo sports,he just translated it. it was about celtics,and it was exactly the same. they even don’t bother calling players to get an interview or something. and the guy actually signed it!
that’s the kind of info we get,sad but true
.. I doubt "they" have inside knowledge.
Magic may reconsider dipping into the tax, but I don’t think anyone should anticipate a change. Orlando was able to trade for Alston because Orlando was still under the tax with the roster move.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
We can work Turk's contract
To stay under the cap. Give him less next year, when we’re the tightest against the cap, and more later, when Rafer leaves/re-signs for less and Battie’s contract comes off the books.
So I can’t see him leaving unless he wants crazy money or Otis whiffs.
There’s almost no way we can keep Gortat if we re-sign Turk, and I think he’s proven he can start, and be paid like a starter, so I think he’s gone.
We either need a veteran’s minimum player, a free agent, a trade or a draft pick (which we’ll have to trade to get) to address backup C.
Unless Fran Vazquez decides to come over.
Jokes!
You're mistaking the salary cap and the luxury tax.
The Magic can maneuver under the tax threshold to re-sign Hedo, but that’s about it.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Other Factors
How sweet it is…..bring on the Lakers
Hedo will stay, even if it does mean paying the luxury tax. It will be a PR nightmare if he leaves because of money. You don’t break up a contender like that (you only get so many chances to win a championship), you got a new building coming on line, you ALWAYS have to think about making Dwight happy as he will be the face of NBA big men for oh….say 10-12 more years, and Hedo and what he brings here in this system would be very hard to replace.
Resign Hedo and the core of this team is under contract for several years, a very deep core at that. Alston stays also though he will sign a smaller deal in 2010. He is another very valuable piece as a back up to Jameer. Imagine this….
PG-Jameer/Rafer
SG-Lee/MP
SG-Hedo+ tons of versitility with the others listed at SG, you can go small with Jameer and Rafer, so much versitility
SF-Rashard and see SG
C-Dwight and whoever…
Gortat is gone and I hope he gets a nice payday. I will always remember him fondly.
Your top 7 will be all under contract for several seasons…its gonna be a very nice ride. And as a true contender you got the guys at the end of their careers who will come cheap for a chance to win a championship.
Waiting on LeBron and the Cavs
The key is re-signing Hedo.
.. if Orlando can do that, then the team should be okay.
I expect the Magic to do everything in its power to maneuver under the luxury tax while keeping Hedo. GM Otis Smith has stated several times that the franchise will not go into the luxury tax, and I believe him. However, you have to think a small window of opportunity is opening with this NBA Finals appearance.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
Rich DeVos is the ultimate decider? Vanderweide?
I dont think thats Otis decision to spend luxury tax or not.
It's Devos' decision.
.. and he’s stated, via Otis Smith, that the team does not plan on paying the luxury tax.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
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