Dwight Howard, Stan Van Gundy, and the Issue of Touches
After the Orlando Magic's loss to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night, in which they blew a 14-point lead in the final period, Magic center Dwight Howard question coach Stan Van Gundy's decisions. Howard was upset with the lack of touches he received--click here for Orlando Magic Daily's breakdown of his touches--but also with Van Gundy's substitution patterns. Jonathan Abrams of the New York Times concluded his write-up of Howard's post-game statements thusly:
The message was loud. On Thursday Howard will find out if it was clearly heard.
Oh, it was heard alright. The fact that Howard and Van Gundy discussed the issue privately yesterday, and are now on the same page, is largely irrelevant. The blogosphere was already ablaze with various takes on the story, some of which my colleague linked in yesterday's The Morning After post. Most interesting to me is Mike Bianchi's belief that Howard has jeopardized Van Gundy's job, and Bethlehem Shoals' "guess" that the Magic will fire Van Gundy this summer. As recently as February, nobody could have fathomed that the Magic and their coach would be in this position.
In this post, I wish to examine the validity of Howard's first complaint. Did he get the ball enough late in the game? How can the Magic use him better? Follow the jump to read the rest of the story.
John Hollinger of ESPN.com defended Van Gundy in yesterday's PER Diem post, writing that Howard has yet to prove he can score consistently in the paint against Kendrick Perkins. My own observation of the series, as well as some independent research, gives me reason to side with Hollinger.
Initially, I was tempted to say that "most" of Howard's offense in this series has come as a direct result of his own offensive rebound, be it a tip-in or a shot immediately after retrieving the ball. The word "most" overstates reality, but my research at least showed that Howard is much more efficient in such situations. Take a look:
| Situation | FG | FGA | FG% | FT | FTA | FT% | TO | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After ORebs | 7 | 8 | 87.5% | 5 | 5 | 100.0% | 0 | 19 |
| Otherwise | 24 | 49 | 48.9% | 13 | 27 | 48.1% | 14 | 61 |
What these data tell us is this: unless Howard is getting the ball off a Magic miss, chances are he is going to make something bad happen, be it a missed shot or a turnover. Granted, one need not have the ball in order to commit a turnover (a three-second violation, for instance), but the point stands: in a halfcourt set, Howard has been woefully inefficient. Throwing Howard the ball in the post on a night when he shot 3-of-8 with 4 turnovers in non-offensive-rebound situations is just not a good idea. Van Gundy was right to run plays for Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu instead.
Don't get me wrong, though: the Magic need to coax some offense from Howard, and perhaps this is where some criticism of Van Gundy is justified. Clearly Howard isn't going to score against a Celtics defense that has a chance to set itself. My colleague and I have beaten this drum for a while, and you're as sick of reading it as we are of saying it, but I'll repeat it anyway: involve the man in pick-and-roll situations. Orlando's disinclination to find Howard on his rolls to the basket is maddening. It's not as though it doesn't know how: Howard hung 24 points against the Celtics on March 25th thanks in large part his teammates' willingness to thread the needle to him on the roll, or otherwise lob it to him over the top of the defense for a dunk.
If it helps Turkoglu, Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, and the rest of the Magic to think of Howard as Marcin Gortat, his backup, that's fine with me. Gortat is 10-of-11 from the field in this series. 2 of his field goals are the direct result of offensive rebounds; his other 8 field goals were assisted. In other words, the Magic need to stop relying on Howard to create his own offense, at least against the Celtics. It's not working.
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28 comments
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Comments
Howard was absolutely correct
Any dominant center knows that you are only as potent as your point guard allows you to be. For Dwight Howard to only have 10 shots in a loss is just criminal! The job of the point guard is to make sure that his center receives the rock where it benefits him the most. Though Howard must share a portion of the blame though…If you get 17 rebounds you MUST demand that the pg gets you the ball or get the hell out of the game!
by meforyou on May 14, 2009 7:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Howard shouldn't get the ball if he's going to chuck up wild hook shots and kill possessions offensively.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't understand the big deal here.
Howard has shown he is too stubborn to kick the ball out when defenders double and triple team him. He’s going up with a wild 15-20 foot hook shot at all costs and they haven’t fallen all playoffs, why should we keep going to that game plan?
I agree, SVG’s job is on line, but not because of Dwight taking more bad hook shots, it’s because he’s been greatly out coached for much of the playoffs, first by Dileo and now by DOC RIVERS. The Courtney Lee/Eddie House crap was just criminal.
Doc decides to take away our best perimeter defender for the entire game by not playing one of his bench players and SVG counters by… yes, sitting our best perimeter defender. Seems like a good trade off for the C’s.
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on May 14, 2009 8:15 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
SVG's job isn't on the line and doesn't deserve to be.
People need to stop overreacting .. this series would be over if his players executed. That’s not his fault. There’s only so much he can do as a coach to coax his team to finish the job. For the most part, the team DOES finish the job but the team’s inability to do so against the Celtics has exacerbated the situation.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll add that it's obvious SVG hasn't been on his coaching "A" game in this series.
I’ll concede that point, with no question.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Explain to me why all season we've seen this club up double digits with less than 3 minutes to play
and the team is rushing the ball down the court and often hoisting threes or 20 foot jumpers with none of their men even under the basket? Inefficient late in the game strategy is reason enough to question his job.
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on May 14, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.. yet the team is 52-5 during the regular season when leading after the third quarter.
I know the playoffs have been a different story, but it’s a shame people are jumping ship at the first sign of trouble. I’m not directing my comment towards you, but what I’ve read the past two days.
Look, there are times when I disagree with SVG’s mentality, but at the end of the day, the team needs to execute. If the players did, Orlando would be in the ECF right now. It is what it is.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you E.
In reality, it is SUPPOSED to be hard to choke when you’re up 10 with 2-3 minutes left in a game, you’re not SUPPOSED to choke, like the old Chris Rock line, “SUPPOSED TO.” Anyways… whether they win these games or not, it’s not the correct strategy being implemented from the head coach to the players, and again, whether they win these games or not (as they generally did in the regular season) that mentality sticks with the team, which ended up costing them game 5. So although the stats back up the fact that they’re pretty good at closing, it doesn’t mean their strategy can’t be flawed in doing so.
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on May 14, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You make a good point in your last sentence.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely agree about the Howard comments.
Lately he’s been way too in love with that running hook, which hasn’t worked with Perk pushing on him. Not a foul, just physical, but it makes the shot much harder. I would love to see a spin move? Something that uses his huge quickness advantage.
"It's difficult to win when you're outscored in every quarter." -Bill Walton
by betterthanburke on May 14, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Spin moves would be good. Pump fakes, too.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I had a feeling SVG and Howard would get it right
Too much to hope for that the magic would lose it completely. Woulda been nice to close this out AND rest the starters, but looks like you guys will be ready. I got my popcorn…
by jyrecelts on May 14, 2009 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They're both fine .. the media is completely overreacting to the situation and making a scene.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
SVG said after one of the Philly games that he did not really emphasize offensive rebounding
Make he should rethink that. Any thoughts about the differential in free throw percentage coming off the offensive rebound v. otherwise?
Lori
by lorisays on May 14, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He did it because SVG wanted to get his team back on defense to prevent ..
.. Philly for getting easy points off of transition. In general, Orlando isn’t a good offensive rebounding team and I suspect one of the reasons for that is because SVG wants to make sure that his team is back on D.
I don’t think the Sixers series was an exclusive decision.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also because of the structure of the offense calls for a lot of 3s
3 points shots result in frequent long rebounds true. But by not having a 4/3 near the paint you still won’t get as many as a more conventional offense does.
This also leaves their defenders with the option of closing out and then running the floor to try and cherry pick. So all in all I think the Magic have a consistent strategy for somewhat forgoing the offensive glass. No reason to get away from it this late in the season.
by Fafnir on May 14, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
FT% differential? Maybe confidence. Also, small sample size.
by Ben Q Rock on May 14, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
True.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Howard needs to be involved in finishing plays, not initiating them. If he gets more touches, they should be deep in the post where he can make the most out of the reliable offense he provides with his dunks and layups.
"I was playing in the streets one time and my friend broke off a leg to a chair and threw it at another guy through his heart and he died." - Ron Artest, QB's finest
by endverse on May 14, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Easier said than done, unfortunately.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He needs to run hard in transition
If you can’t get your post position through the normal offense, get it in transition. Perk and Baby both run hard, but Howard would be able to run them into the ground if he kept running every play.
The problem is that he has to carry such a rebounding burden for the Magic that he doesn’t get the chance often enough.
by Fafnir on May 14, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, I don't want to see him receive the ball 20 feet out, square his body towards the basket
start dribbling like a wild man, before realizing he has no moves and stubbornly hoisting a low percentage wild hook.
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on May 14, 2009 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
last second tickets
i found this site that still has tickets to the game tonight prices are petty low starting at 34$ up to 2500$ for court side seats basicly they have alot of different seats available and i found a coupon that give u 5% off BCT54
magic09
by magic09 on May 14, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hurry before C's fans goble em up.
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Rafer Alston
by DieSlowKeyshawn on May 14, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are they really bad shots?
for the same reason i root for the celtics (ray allen) I now feel empathy for orlando (and rashard lewis). can you tell i’m a lost soul known otherwise as a sonics fan? After finally watching the game last night and knowing the outcome, I was hoping that Lewis wouldn’t be the one to miss shots down the stretch. Needless to say, i didn’t get my wish. But the “collapse” i was preparing myself for never really materialized. Instead, a bunch of elite NBA players missed wide-open shots down the stretch. True enough, driving to the rim seems a bit less risky than hoisting them up from 25 feet. However, I thought the magic made (for the most part) the right passes. boston collapsed the paint, and orlando passed to the open man. That the open man then missed the shot – many times in a row – is not really SVG’s fault, in my opinion. The NBA is about execution. Any one of those falls in, and the game swings back to orlando ftw. But, such is life. Anyway, just letting you know I feel your pain, and hope rashard (and ray) play better tonight.
by spider monkey on May 14, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They're bad shots, in the sense that the Magic didn't need to chuck up threes ..
.. especially when they needed points. Just continue to do what was working, which was dribble penetrating, etc. There’s no need to try to end the game with one shot, which was what the team was trying to do. I agree that the missed shots aren’t SVG fault and that it comes down to execution. Simple.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone
by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pick & Rolls are NOT the answer to what is ailing Orlando's 4th quarter Offense
re: My colleague and I have beaten this drum for a while, and you’re as sick of reading it as we are of saying it, but I’ll repeat it anyway: involve the man in pick-and-roll situations. Orlando’s disinclination to find Howard on his rolls to the basket is maddening. It’s not as though it doesn’t know how: Howard hung 24 points against the Celtics on March 25th thanks in large part his teammates’ willingness to thread the needle to him on the roll, or otherwise lob it to him over the top of the defense for a dunk.
-———————————————————————————
If you pay close attention you should be able to see that Boston is choosing to defend this specific action with a more concerted effort to collapse their perimeter defenders [both strong and weak side, alike] into the lane in an effort to defend against Dwight Howard’s rolls to the basket. With the lane congested in this way [i.e. 1 Big + 1 or sometimes even 2 Smalls] all Pick & Rolls will generate for Orlando are more 3PT shots from the Wings.
Instead of implementing this strategy what Orlando needs to do instead is:
Post-up Rashard Lewis with Dwight Howard ensconced in the Weak Side Rebounding position.
I. If the ball can be entered to Lewis … there will be no double-team coming off of D12’s check, or from one of the other perimeter defenders should SVG also have some combination of Turkoglu, Redick, Lee or Pietrus on the floor, i.e. as 3PT-shooters around the arc.
or
II. If the ball cannot be entered into Lewis … then Rashard should set the cross-screen for D12 and FLASH into the High Post.
A. If D12 is open on his initial cut, he should get the ball in a deep position from which he almost impossible to stop.
B. If D12 is covered on his initial cut, the ball should be passed to Lewis in the High Post, from where he can:
Make the High-Low pass to D12;ii. Catch & Shoot himself;
iii. Shot fake and drive opposite the direction of the pass he just received; or,
iv. Pass to the Weak Side Perimeter player spotting up on the Wing, who should either:
- Catch & Shoot a 3PT-shot; or,
- Shot Fake & Drive Baseline vs the close-out defender … with the knowledge that D12 is now located in the opposite Low Block position and available for a layoff or a lob pass should the Big covering Howard be tempted to Help on this drive attempt.
Getting Dwight Howard on the move into his Low Post position in this way from a simple cross-screen action which leads into a basic High Low situation involving Lewis & D12 is the answer to the Magic’s problem not running more Pick & Rolls. :-)
khandor
by khandor on May 15, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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