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The Recipe For A Comeback

Although Orlando is down 3-2 in the series against the Boston Celtics and the odds are stacked heavily against the Magic's favor to make a comeback - historically, teams have a series record of 188-32 (85.5%) when leading 3-2; the C's are 32-0 when leading 3-2 - if history has taught us anything, it's that nothing is impossible.

 

For head coach Stan Van Gundy and the players to make the near impossible possible, the Magic must execute in the next two games (I know I've been burying this concept to the ground, I apologize). Here is Orlando's recipe for a comeback.

 

ed. note: These are just a few keys I address. I couldn't cover everything.

 

Start Courtney Lee - Unless something is wrong with the rookie's health, there's no reason he should not start in place of J.J. Redick. It seems odd that SVG is letting Eddie House dictate whether or not Courtney Lee starts, but that is what is occurring. More often than not, teams that let their opponents dictate matchups end up paying the price (ask the 2007 Dallas Mavericks, for example) sooner or later. 

 

 

J.J. Redick Courtney Lee
Minutes Per Game (26.8) Minutes Per Game (22.3)
PPG (7.4) PPG (7.7)
P/36 (9.9) P/36 (11.8)
FG% (35.5%) FG% (46.7%)
3P% (38.1%) 3P% (66.7%)

 

 

Redick should be commended for his play in the postseason, especially on defense, but Lee is one of the most dynamic players on the roster for the Magic and has proved his worth in the playoffs. Redick has natural limitations as a player that impede him from being a bigger impact on the court. Redick is a shooter, plain and simple; he doesn't do much else on offense and as such, that limits Orlando offensively. Lee, on the other hand, can do a variety of things. such as attack the basket and convert lay-ups (2nd on the team), dribble penetrate, shoot the mid-range jumper or the three (preferably from the corners), and more. As you can see, that's a big difference between the offensive repertoires of the two players. Given the fact that the Magic need to dribble penetrate more on offense against the Celtics, it only makes sense to have someone on the court that can aid in that quest.

 

Someone like Lee. 

 

Involve Dwight Howard in the Pick & Roll - Click here

 

Get Dribble Penetration - Same as above. 

 

Play Marcin Gortat More - Unfortunately, the reality is this - Gortat is most likely gone after the season unless something miraculous happens with the Magic roster shuffle. Why let the Polish Hammer go to waste, then? In the minutes he's played, Gortat has proven to be productive with his playing time against Boston and it's time that he's utilized more, while he's still around. There are some problems when pairing Gortat and Howard together; spacing becomes an issue on offense. However, there are some advantages when playing the two big men together. Here's some examples:

 

defense improves - Though the sample size is small, common sense dictates that when you pair two excellent defensive big men together, the results will be impressive. Take a look below and you'll see what I mean (via 82games):

 

Picture_1_medium

 

rebounding improves - The Celtics have had the rebounding edge in 4 out of the 5 games. Having Gortat and Howard on the court together eliminates this advantage, when you take into account the excellent rebounding rates of both players and the simple fact that both individuals have a height advantage versus Davis, Perkins, etc. 

 

Rashard Lewis Needs To Be The #1 Option On Offense - This is a no-brainer. There is no one on the Boston roster, who's playing, that can effectively stop Lewis from doing whatever he wants to do offensively. Normally, the offense for Orlando funnels through Dwight Howard but given his ineffectiveness against Kendrick Perkins on the low block, the team needs to have Lewis touch the ball on every possession (even if the Magic ended up finally utilizing Howard in pick & rolls). His ability to get the Boston bigs in foul trouble, post up, pump-fake & drive to the basket or pull up for a mid-range jumper are a few examples of how Lewis has been the best offensive player for Orlando. As such, the Magic need to exploit this matchup advantage every time on offense. There's no excuse for Lewis not to have 30+ point games. 

 

 

For the Orlando Magic, it all comes down to execution versus the Boston Celtics. It's a simple concept, yet an important one. This series has proven it matters, a lot. 

Comment 15 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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I hope SVG reads this . . .

or has otherwise reached the same conclusion. Spot on analysis (as usual).

Lori

by lorisays on May 13, 2009 9:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks.

Yeah, I hope SVG read it .. hah. Doubt it.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 13, 2009 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

SVG

please start Courtney Lee.

by Ariel112 on May 13, 2009 10:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Awesome stuff...

…The one other point I would make is, “Keep shooters on a shorter than normal leash.” We can’t afford to go through a shooting slump tomorrow.

by gift of the magi on May 13, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Appreciate it.

Yeah, I’d agree. Even though I didn’t make that point explicit in my post, it’s inferred when you’re talking about dribble penetration .. nevertheless, you make a valid observation.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 13, 2009 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

32-0 all-time when leading a series 3 games to 2...

My gosh, that’s an incredible stat regarding the Celtics! That shows the kind of history the Magic are going up against.

I believe the Magic are 0-1 all-time in Game 7s on the road… that was the disaster against the Pistons in 2003.

Of course, it’s all a moot point if the Magic don’t win Game 6.

Your five suggestions are a good starting point for the Magic to make a history-making comeback.

"Chicago Blackhawks... One Goal... the Stanley Cup"

by Mike from Illinois on May 14, 2009 12:45 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, that stat is absurd.

Granted, it was during the Russell and Bird eras but still .. it’s worth mentioning.

Thanks! Like I said, I wish I could list more suggestions but I felt the five I had were good to start with.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree that it's an impressive stat, BUT...

We’re talking all time. This Celtic team is two years old. When they talk about playing Celtic basketball, that is a two year old tradition.

I don’t see the value in worrying about that daunting 32 wins when most of them don’t count for this team.

Your mileage may vary. :)

by farfromfl on May 14, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

It seems no one has pointed this out but

in Game 5 Lee played about 11 minutes and House, 19. Obviously Lee didn’t shadow House for the entire game. For 8 minutes someone else guarded the Evil Ed.

It’s crazy that Courtney, a key member of the team and far more of an impact player than JJ (now and ever), would play 11 minutes only in such a huge game. Why can’t he guard House AND play 30 minutes? Who says he can match House’s minutes only or, worse, play even fewer minutes?

Finally, he should have started not just in Game 5 but also in Game 3 & 4.

As for Gortat, playing him with Dwight would ensure a huge rebounding advantage for the Magic. It seems that when in position Gortat easily gets the rebound over 2 or 3 Celtic players. He just towers over them, just like Howard.

by LibNat on May 14, 2009 1:01 AM EDT reply actions  

The minutes situation with Lee with Game 5 was mentioned a number of times by a lot of people here.

I was aware of the discrepancy, just didn’t explicitly state it in my post. I inferred it, if anything.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wish I could add something here

But, like several other people have said, spot friggin on erivera.

Evil Cowtown Inc: Screwin' Suckaz over since Nineteen Eighty-Five.....

No mistakes in the tango, darling. Not like life. Simple. That's what makes the tango so great. If you make a mistake, and get all tangled up, you just tango on.....

by pookeyguru on May 14, 2009 1:37 AM EDT reply actions  

Gracias.

I try to please.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on May 14, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah,eddy's articles are great. nothing to add or take.

anyway,comeback is possible. but unlikely.
i think they’ll have hard time conquering boston even tonight. all is being said about recipe,but they had a much better chances,and blew them all.
why is it so hard to close almost won game? i don’t know.
is it panic? lack of expirience? pure absence of lady luck?
whatever it is,hopefully it’ll be gone tonight,and especially on 7. it is about time something goes our way.

by Dzogi on May 14, 2009 11:47 AM EDT reply actions  

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