FanPost

The Worth of a Player

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Over at 82games, there's information on the top 20 5-man units for each team by minutes. I decided to look at each of those lineups, and see how each player performed compared to the average for the team as a whole on Offensive Efficiency (OE), Defensive Efficiency (DE), and Plus/Minus (+/-).

 

To calculate the team average, I had to blow up the OE and DE for each unit by the number of minutes they played, sum the OE and DE, and divide by the sum of the minutes. For +/-, the raw number had to be divided by minutes to get +/- per minute, then averaged to get +/- per minute for all units. The numbers are:

Orlando Magic 2009 averages:

Offensive Efficiency 1.11 Points per Possession

Defensive Efficiency 1.00 Points per Possession

Plus/Minus +0.18 Points per Minute

 

The players involved in the top 20 units are:

Rafer Alston

Jameer Nelson

Anthony Johnson

Courtney Lee

Keith Bogans

Mickael Pietrus

JJ Redick

Hidayet Turkoglu

Rashard Lewis

Tony Battie

Marcin Gortat

Dwight Howard

 

Individual numbers after the break

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Below are each players OE, DE, and +/- for units where they're on the floor. The numbers in parentheses are the difference between their score and the team average. Plusses are always good (so it's reversed for DE - +0.01 means they allowed 0.01 fewer pts per possession), and minuses always bad.

 

Rafer Alston

OE 1.08 (-0.03)

DE 1.02 (-0.02)

+/- +0.23 (+0.05)

 

Jameer Nelson

OE 1.14 (+0.03)

DE 0.98 (+0.02)

+/- +0.24 (+0.06)

 

Anthony Johnson

OE 1.09 (-0.02)

DE 1.01 (-0.01)

+/- +0.12 (-0.06)

 

Courtney Lee

OE 1.12 (+0.01)

DE 1.01 (-0.01)

+/- +0.16 (-0.02)

 

Keith Bogans

OE 1.13 (+0.02)

DE 0.97 (+0.03)

+/- +0.21 (+0.03)

 

Mickael Pietrus

OE 1.08 (-0.03)

DE 1.00 (+/- 0)

+/- +0.09 (-0.09)

 

JJ Redick

OE 1.09 (-0.02)

DE 1.01 (-0.01)

+/- +0.24 (+0.06)

 

Hidayet Turkoglu

OE 1.12 (+0.01)

DE 1.00 (+/- 0)

+/- 0.21 (+0.03)

 

Rashard Lewis

OE 1.12 (+0.01)

DE 1.00 (+/- 0)

+/- 0.22 (+0.04)

 

Tony Battie

OE 1.04 (-0.07)

DE 0.99 (+0.01)

+/- 0.08 (-0.10)

 

Marcin Gortat

OE 1.01 (-0.10)

DE 0.91 (+0.09)

+/- 0.15 (-0.03)

 

Dwight Howard

OE 1.12 (+0.01)

DE 1.00 (+/- 0)

+/- 0.19 (+0.01)

 

 

Thoughts: Howard, Lewis, and Turkoglu all played huge minutes, so their numbers would trend towards the norm, as shown (in particular) by their flat DE. Marcin Gortat's DE is incredibly good, although the offense is less impressive. Gortat's certainly better than Battie, though. At PG, we definitely miss Nelson. Rafer and AJ both have low efficiencies. Our most effective shooting guard was actually Keith Bogans, with Courtney Lee being second best (Redick's higher +/- looks to be due to pace). Pietrus was definitely the least efficient guard we had.

 

Looking at the numbers, our “best” player, the one who has the greatest overall positive influence on OE, DE, and +/-, is the guy sitting in street clothes on the bench. We need our Little General back on the floor next season.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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