The Worth of a Player
by The Dark on May 13, 2009 6:49 PM EDT
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Over at 82games, there's information on the top 20 5-man units for each team by minutes. I decided to look at each of those lineups, and see how each player performed compared to the average for the team as a whole on Offensive Efficiency (OE), Defensive Efficiency (DE), and Plus/Minus (+/-).
To calculate the team average, I had to blow up the OE and DE for each unit by the number of minutes they played, sum the OE and DE, and divide by the sum of the minutes. For +/-, the raw number had to be divided by minutes to get +/- per minute, then averaged to get +/- per minute for all units. The numbers are:
Orlando Magic 2009 averages:
Offensive Efficiency 1.11 Points per Possession
Defensive Efficiency 1.00 Points per Possession
Plus/Minus +0.18 Points per Minute
The players involved in the top 20 units are:
Rafer Alston
Jameer Nelson
Anthony Johnson
Courtney Lee
Keith Bogans
Mickael Pietrus
JJ Redick
Hidayet Turkoglu
Rashard Lewis
Tony Battie
Marcin Gortat
Dwight Howard
Individual numbers after the break
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Below are each players OE, DE, and +/- for units where they're on the floor. The numbers in parentheses are the difference between their score and the team average. Plusses are always good (so it's reversed for DE - +0.01 means they allowed 0.01 fewer pts per possession), and minuses always bad.
Rafer Alston
OE 1.08 (-0.03)
DE 1.02 (-0.02)
+/- +0.23 (+0.05)
Jameer Nelson
OE 1.14 (+0.03)
DE 0.98 (+0.02)
+/- +0.24 (+0.06)
Anthony Johnson
OE 1.09 (-0.02)
DE 1.01 (-0.01)
+/- +0.12 (-0.06)
Courtney Lee
OE 1.12 (+0.01)
DE 1.01 (-0.01)
+/- +0.16 (-0.02)
Keith Bogans
OE 1.13 (+0.02)
DE 0.97 (+0.03)
+/- +0.21 (+0.03)
Mickael Pietrus
OE 1.08 (-0.03)
DE 1.00 (+/- 0)
+/- +0.09 (-0.09)
JJ Redick
OE 1.09 (-0.02)
DE 1.01 (-0.01)
+/- +0.24 (+0.06)
Hidayet Turkoglu
OE 1.12 (+0.01)
DE 1.00 (+/- 0)
+/- 0.21 (+0.03)
Rashard Lewis
OE 1.12 (+0.01)
DE 1.00 (+/- 0)
+/- 0.22 (+0.04)
Tony Battie
OE 1.04 (-0.07)
DE 0.99 (+0.01)
+/- 0.08 (-0.10)
Marcin Gortat
OE 1.01 (-0.10)
DE 0.91 (+0.09)
+/- 0.15 (-0.03)
Dwight Howard
OE 1.12 (+0.01)
DE 1.00 (+/- 0)
+/- 0.19 (+0.01)
Thoughts: Howard, Lewis, and Turkoglu all played huge minutes, so their numbers would trend towards the norm, as shown (in particular) by their flat DE. Marcin Gortat's DE is incredibly good, although the offense is less impressive. Gortat's certainly better than Battie, though. At PG, we definitely miss Nelson. Rafer and AJ both have low efficiencies. Our most effective shooting guard was actually Keith Bogans, with Courtney Lee being second best (Redick's higher +/- looks to be due to pace). Pietrus was definitely the least efficient guard we had.
Looking at the numbers, our “best” player, the one who has the greatest overall positive influence on OE, DE, and +/-, is the guy sitting in street clothes on the bench. We need our Little General back on the floor next season.
This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.
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Re: a guy like Bogans, can’t it be said that his higher average was due in part to the fact that all his minutes came early in the season, when we were a better team? Don’t get me wrong, I think Bogans is a good player, and he’s received kind of a bad rap for a short-term scoring slump… but he never had to play without Nelson, while other guys’ numbers factor in games without Nelson.
That's entirely possible...
and it may also explain why Lee’s numbers look deflated – he was rarely on the floor with Nelson
"And this he knows if nothing more
That waiting in the dark like destiny
Are those who kissed the dogs of war
And there is no tomorrow."
Numbers for each SG with Nelson, to answer your question:
The Magic with Nelson were OEff 1.14, DEff 0.98, and +0.24 Pts/Min
The Magic without Nelson were OEff 1.09, DEff 1.01, and +0.15 Pts/Min
Nelson with Bogans was OEff 1.13, DEff 0.97, and +0.21 Pts/Min
Nelson with Lee was OEff 1.19, DEff 0.95, and +0.47 Pts/Min (!)
Nelson with Pietrus was OEff 1.14, DEff 1.02, and +0.24 Pts/Min
Nelson with Redick was OEff 1.06, DEff 1.04, and +0.13 Pts/Min
I’d argue that Bogans was at least as good as Pietrus (not as good offensively, better defensively, and a slower pace), but Lee was obviously the best SG to have in with Nelson, with the best OE, DE, and a ridiculously high +/-.
"And this he knows if nothing more
That waiting in the dark like destiny
Are those who kissed the dogs of war
And there is no tomorrow."
I like the Lee with Nelson numbers. Very nice.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on May 15, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Nelson with Le +0.47/minute? Holy crap.
Juggernaut!
by Evan Dunlap on May 20, 2009 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
And it was over 256 minutes
So it wasn’t exactly a five-minute fluke lineup. The rest of the lineup were the other starters – Turk, Lew, and Howard. It was the third most efficient group on offense, behind Johnson-Lee-Turk-Lew-Howard and Johnson-Redick-Turk-Battie-Howard, and fourth most efficient on defense.
It was also the best lineup as far as Win% (the ratio of games where that unit outscored the opposition) at 80.9%. The second-best lineup was Johnson-Redick-Turk-Lew-Howard at 73.6%.
"And this he knows if nothing more
That waiting in the dark like destiny
Are those who kissed the dogs of war
And there is no tomorrow."
Hm… maybe we CAN live with Redick as the backup to Lee, then? Especially if we trade Alston and give the backup PG role back to AJ?
Though as always, the question is whether anyone likes Pietrus enough to take on his salary… I really don’t know the answer with that one… seems to me Pietrus would be great if he could stay healthy, but given how many years he has failed to do so, you kind of have to take the fact that he’ll frequently be hurt or less than 100% as an indefinite assumption.
Maybe. Although the AJ-JJ-Turk-Lew-D12 line only played 69 minutes
And it was only +2 over 69 minutes, which suggests it was either barely ahead or way behind (mostly barely ahead), JJ’s lines overall looked as good or better than Peaches. This doesn’t take into account who they’re playing against, though. It’s possible JJ had a lot more garbage time and time against backups rather than starters.
Redick’s lines:
79 minutes @ 50.0%
69 minutes @ 73.6%
48 minutes @ 61.5%
45 minutes @ 70.0%
41 minutes @ 50.0%
40 minutes @ 63.6%
Pietrus as a SG lines:
160 minutes @ 56.2%
142 minutes @ 71.4%
47 minutes @ 58.3%
40 minutes @ 40.0% (the AJ-Peaches-Turk-Warlock-Batman line)
"And this he knows if nothing more
That waiting in the dark like destiny
Are those who kissed the dogs of war
And there is no tomorrow."
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