I posted this over at RealGM and I figured it would be suitable for a blog post over here, so here it is. I hope it inspires some wild debate as a conversation with our very own erivera7 inspired it.

http://www.3hoopsfans.com/2009/04/the-weapons-that-make-a-player-clutch/

This article brings up the idea that a go-to-scorer will excel in crunch in three quantifiable categories; True Shooting %, Assist rate, and Free Throw rate. The bench marks as the article states them are thus;

Scores Efficiently (.550+ TS%)
Can Draw Fouls (7.0+ FTA/48)
Can Pass (>20% for wing players, >15% for centers)

Having a player that is skilled in these three areas hypothetically provides that team with an edge in close games, and therefore and edge in the playoffs. The article notes that while in the 80's and 90's there were typically only 2-3 in any given season, this year we have several. They are LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy, Devin Harris, Paul Pierce, Manu Ginobili, Time Duncan.

Not a single Magic man. I wanted to take a moment though to look real quick at our foursome and see exactly where these players fall short.

Dwight Howard
TS% = .606 >
FTA/48 = 14.57 >
AST% = 7.3 <

Dwight dominates in two out of three categories. However it is in his passing that he struggles. We have seen improvement in this area throughout the year, and with teams [i]having[/i] to double team him, he will find the open guy for the assist if he can develop that comfort level and awareness. An improvment here will impact the offense 2 fold, as not only will it result in increased scoring chances for his teammates but it will also cut down on his turnovers when the hard double comes.

Rashard Lewis
TS% = .582 >
FTA/48 = 4.62 <
AST% = 12.6 <

Rashard is an efficient scorer but lacks the aggressiveness and court vision of a go-to-scorer. I personally think he would be a more effective creator out of the post than on the wing, as it seems putting the ball on the floor limits his mobility and slows down his reaction time. Also, as his game is more finesse than brutish his post moves and finishes tend to avoid contact rather than instigate it, limiting his trips to the strip.

Hedo Turkoglu
TS% = .537 <
FTA/48 = 6.557 <
AST% = 22.3 >

Hedo comes very, very close. His shooting is down from last year, where he was far above .550 TS% bench mark. What it comes down too is that Hedo doesn't get to the line enough, but even in that he comes close. Truth be told I've felt all year that on his drives he was getting fouled but not getting the respect of the whistle. Also, and this is anecdotal, but it seems that Hedo doesn't really turn it on till the 4th quarter anyway, thus his numbers don't quite show his true value as a go-to-scorer.

Jameer Nelson
TS% = .612 >
FTA/48 = 3.54 <
AST% = 31.9 >

This is salt in the wounds for those of us who have put the injury behind us, but Nelson really was having an All Star year. The only area that he lacks is in getting to the line, but with his quickness and ability to penetrate I think he could improve that area. Maybe his lack of height will forever keep him from being an effective contact finisher, but the jury is still out on that.

All in all I'd say we have a very well rounded foursome, with both Nelson and Howard having room to grow. Going into this post season Hedo will be our closest thing to a go-to-scorer, so if we are going to win the grind it out fights that many post season games turn into it will be on his shoulders. He is much more valuable than some people may be willing to admit.