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Orlando Magic News for April 6th: the Magic's Weekend Performance, Dwight Howard's Leadership, and More

  • This past weekend, the Orlando Magic played one of their more difficult back-to-back sets of the season, with a Friday tilt against the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers followed by a Saturday contest against the up-and-coming Atlanta Hawks. The Magic emerged victorious both times.

    One person paying particularly close attention to those games was Kevin Arnovitz, of ClipperBlog and ESPN.com fame, who saw them as an opportunity to realistically assess the Magic. Kevin came away impressed, and provides this detailed account of 7 reasons to fear the Magic. You'll want to set aside some time for this one, as it commands all your attention. Here is my favorite passage, which comes from his introduction:

    I've heard the rap on the Orlando Magic. They're essentially a jump-shooting team. They don't hit the offensive glass, and don't have a go-to guy on the wing who can manufacture points in crunch time. In short, the Magic just don't seem like a championship contender in the eyes of their doubters. How do you gauge what constitutes a contender? As Justice Potter Stewart said of obscenity, you know it when you see it.

    [....]

    Arguments that their style doesn't conform to the postseason seem remote while watching them dismantle Western Conference powers on the road, or rip off 13 out of 15 games after their point guard and team leader was lost for the season. It's enough to make you ask, "Exactly what style of basketball are we talking about? A style that translates into the league's second most efficient defense and sixth most efficient offense? A style that wins more than 70% of its games on the road?"

    Killer stuff.

  • We might attribute some of the Magic's inspired play this weekend to the players-only meeting team captain Dwight Howard called after their loss to the Toronto Raptors last Wednesday. In his blog today, Howard writes about what went on in the meeting, and his attitude as the regular season winds to a close:

    It's kind of hard for me to tell guys that it's time to be serious, because I'm one of the silliest guys on the team and everybody knows that I love having as much fun as I can. But the playoffs are nearly here and it's time for us to lock in mentally. We have the kind of team that can win a championship. Chances like this don't have too often and we can't let this opportunity pass us by.

    Nice to see the team captain taking some initiative here.

  • But Dwight isn't the team's franchise player for his leadership ability alone. (Duh). He gets it done on the court too, and in a major way. He won his second consecutive Player of the Week award today.

  • Naturally, the Magic are looking out for their own, lobbying for end-of-season accolades for their players and coach Stan Van Gundy. We mentioned as much last week, but we're bringing it up again because now the team has a highlight video for Howard (MVP, Defensive Player of the year, All-NBA team), Rashard Lewis (All-NBA team), Courtney Lee (All-Rookie team), and Van Gundy (Coach of the Year). Sadly, there aren't any clips of Van Gundy's great catch during January's visit to Staples Center to play the Lakers.

  • The Curse of the Big Aristotle has a look at the Magic's remaining schedule, and compares it to that of the Boston Celtics, the team Orlando is chasing for the East's second seed in the playoffs.

  • Speaking of playoffs, tomorrow night's game against Houston will be the Magic's last chance to test themselves against playoff-caliber competition, as Brian Schmitz notes. Orlando's next 5 games are against teams with nothing left to play for but pride.

UPDATE: Hello. ER here, dropping by with some more news. 

  • Today, Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference took the time to calculate the floor % of every go-to guy on every team since 1977-1978. For those that don't know, floor % is the percentage of a player's individual possessions which result at least 1 point for his team. In Lahman's terms, the metric is a good way to see who are the most efficient go-to guys in the NBA, historically. Given the range of years in the analysis, Magic fans can take a look at the entire franchise's history and see which players sprung up on the list. To no one's surprise, Hedo Turkoglu was listed as the team's go-to guy last season.
  • With the Hall of Fame class announced today (Michael Jordan, David Robinson, John Stockton, Dennis Johnson, Bernard King and Chris Mullin), Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus wanted to take a look at how each of the players then compared to the players now (for an explanation as to how Pelton's SCHOENE projection system works, click here). On the list, David Robinson (in 1994-1995) is scored as the most similar to Dwight Howard. 
  • David Steele shares his take on where Orlando stands among the elite teams in the NBA (Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers). 
  • I forgot to post this a few days ago in the news bulletin for April 3rd, but Rob Peterson of NBA.com wrote a piece highlighting Jameer Nelson and the All-Star point guard's impact on Orlando since his shoulder injury. I suggest giving the article a read; it's a great write-up and provides some insight on what Nelson has been doing behind the scenes with the Magic.

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It's a great time to be a Magic fan

A few points in Arnovitz’s article are questionable— I’m not sure that Turk is a “competent” wing defender, though he is a wonderful offensive “triple threat”— but overall it’s a very thoughtful, detailed piece.

by gift of the magi on Apr 6, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Turkoglu is definitely a competent defender. Take a look at the numbers ..

http://www.82games.com/0809/0809ORLP.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0809/08ORL10.HTM
Note Hedo’s eFG% allowed ..

Now granted, Dwight Howard has something to do with those numbers but still ..

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 6, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough...

…Turk’s statistics in that respect are better than expected. I note that his clutch shooting rate, if I’m interpreting it correctly, is lower than expected (0.400 eFG%). But his passing and (to a lesser degree) rebounding are both very impressive.

by gift of the magi on Apr 6, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep! You're correct with every assessment.

I’ll add that even though Turk is shooting a poor percentage in “clutch time”, the efficiency differential when he’s on the court (if you look just above the scoring category) is tops on the team. Basically, it just shows that Hedo is still the team’s best fourth quarter player (no surprise).

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 6, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah competent

He’s not above average, but he’s not going to make too many defensive mistakes. Most of the NBA’s best defenders are also freak athletes, a term never associated with Hedo. What makes Hedo special is that he’s a natural player. He’s a master of the pump fake and all the little things that seem to be forgotten by many younger players. Although he gets burned on occasion, his fundementals keep him strong on the defensive end.

by magic fanatic on Apr 7, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd feel comfortable in saying Hedo is an above-average defender.

The numbers say he’s an excellent defender but that’s due to Dwight Howard, more than anything.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

and just to add...

…building upon a previous topic, that I desperately want to resign Turk despite his defensive liabilities. If we can afford him. And if we can limit the contract length. Turk’s versatility is too important for this team to lose.

by gift of the magi on Apr 6, 2009 6:18 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 6, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's had issues all season

I’m not saying that I’m happy about it, but I’m not saying I hope he gets better.

by magic fanatic on Apr 7, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rondo has been having ankle problems this year .. that's an interesting development.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I enjoyed that player comparison article

Don’t really see the Howard/Robinson connection. The Admiral was such a unique player, it’s hard to compare anyone to him. Howard is the same way, once in a generation type player. I agree thatt Howard is the closest thing to Robinson in the NBA, but it’s still not that close.

The Stockton/Rondo comparison makes sense, never really thought about it though.

by magic fanatic on Apr 7, 2009 9:33 AM EDT reply actions  

The comparison (Howard/Robinson) may seem odd, but let's take a look at the numbers and see ..

I usually would ignore PER in comparisons because that metric isn’t best used when comparing players with different positions and roles on a team, but given that Howard & Robinson are both centers .. it’s okay to take a quick gander and see what’s up. Even then, PER is a flawed advanced statistic so I wouldn’t read into the number as so much as look at the supporting data when coming up with a conclusion.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&=h&p1=howardw01&y1=2009&=r&p2=robinda01&y2=1995&=&=

Check it out.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Go to Guy

That was an interesting link. I think that is still a chink in the might Magic armor. Dwight will get there though, I honestly think he is only a few years away, if that many. Hedo and Turk should continue to produce in those situations till then.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 7, 2009 11:37 AM EDT reply actions  

Really?

.. how is that a chink in the armor when Orlando can go to Nelson, Turkoglu, Lewis, and others at the end of a game? Makes it even more difficult for the opponent to figure out who’s going to get the ball.

I understand what you’re trying to get at, with your comment, but I’d have to disagree in this instance.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is why
Scores Efficiently (.550+ TS%)
Can Draw Fouls (7.0+ FTA/48)
Can Pass (>20% for wing players, >15% for centers)

Take this analysis of what a champion level go to scorer looks like for instance and you can see that we just fall short. Dwight needs to pass more, Hedo and Nelson need to get to the line more, and so on. Being able to go to several lesser options is effective in its own right, but it does not beat out having a pure go to guy in crunch time.

That quote was taken from this article:http://www.3hoopsfans.com/2009/04/the-weapons-that-make-a-player-clutch/

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 7, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would agree, sure (obviously it makes more sense to rely on LeBron than a committee of players).

.. I’m just disagreeing that relying on several plays is a chink in the armor. I don’t think so.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hmm

Maybe then I am not conveying my point well. When I say “Chink in the Armor” I’m really referring to the argument that can be made on behalf of the Magic winning a Chip this year.

Top Defense? Check
Top Offense? Check
Dominant Point differential? Check
Dominant Center? Check
Dominant go to scorer? Neep

The Magic have an amazing resumé but lacking a dominant go to player is their one weakness, or “Chink in the Armor”.

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 7, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just because the Magic don't meet all those prerequisites means ..

.. that they have a chink in the armor.

Not every NBA champion in the past met every requirement necessary to win it all. For example, the Pistons in 2004 didn’t have a Top Offense, yet they won it all.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

What are you arguing with me about again?

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 7, 2009 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm just disagreeing that Orlando has a chink in the armor.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Are we using the same definations?

And if so, than what does not having a verifiable go to scorer, like pretty much every previous championship team has had, constitute, if not a chink?

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 7, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hah. I think I'm using the same definition. I think.

.. all I’m saying is that there have been champions in the past that haven’t fit some of the pre-requisites you pointed out. The example I gave was the Detroit Pistons in 2004, a team didn’t really have an explosive offense.

Would you state that they had a chink in the armor? Just wondering. I mean .. I guess they technically “did” .. but they were able to mask it by doing other things extremely well, similar to the Orlando Magic this year.

But then if they’re able to mask it, does that mean they have a chink in the armor? I guess it all semantics. What do you think?

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Detroit had Billups

He would qualify as a “go to” guy.

.550 TS%
8 FTA per48
29.3 AST%

'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12

by Eyriq the Red on Apr 7, 2009 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know that, but they didn't have an explosive offense.

They were ranked 18th in offensive efficiency that year. Would that mean they had a chink in the armor, since they didn’t have an explosive offense? Sorry .. should have been more specific.

In my opinion, I’d say no because they were able to do other stuff so well, it didn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 7, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

My 2 cents.

I think the Magic now have several go to guys. Not one dominate. Unless you consider Howard a dominator. If he made more of his foul shots he would definitely be used more at crunch time.

The Surfdog

by Surfdog on Apr 8, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I'd agree.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 8, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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