Off-Day Open Thread: Hedo Turkoglu Sounds Off
I wanted to post a Florida Today article I read, as a FanShot yesterday, but I decided against it. The reason being that I wanted to flesh out the piece a little bit and, hopefully, spark some discussion with the community about the subject of the write-up - Hedo Turkoglu.
John Denton wrote an article about Turkoglu and in the piece, got some interesting commentary from him. I want to concentrate, solely, on the financial aspect of Turkoglu, not the statistical aspect (Denton comments a bit on that in his write-up).
"The contract, that's a big part of my life and it's always there in my mind," said Turkoglu, who recently celebrated the birth of his first child (Ela) with his wife. "Right now I'm not thinking about it, but when the time comes I'll have to think about it. It's a chance for me to secure myself and my family.
"I'd love to stay here, but it's not just on my side," Turkoglu continued. "It has to be there on both sides. I can say, 'I want to be here, I want to be here,' but it won't matter if they don't really want to keep you. Hopefully, they will want me here, but if they don't, I can't keep knocking on the door without them answering."
We all know, by now, Turkoglu's situation. Turkoglu has a player option he can exercise this off-season (which would net him $7.3 million) OR he can opt out of his current contract in hopes of getting a raise. It's no secret that Turkoglu plans on opting out and, obviously, the main priority for the Orlando Magic is to lock him up for the long-term so that the franchise can continue its championship run.
As Denton somewhat points out, there are a number of things working in Orlando's favor. The economy is down, many franchises are looking to spend their money in 2010, the number of teams with loads of cash will be small this off-season (the Grizzlies, Pistons, and Thunder have major money to spend), etc.
So what does that mean for Turkoglu? Well, he's not going to get his asking price of 5 years/$50 million. It's not going to happen in this current economic climate (but who knows, he might). What's a more realistic figure for Turkoglu? Most likely, a contract netting $7-$8 million per year for either 4 or 5 years. In speaking with David Steele a few weeks ago in Milwaukee, he surmises that Turkoglu may agree to a 4 year/$24 million contract. Now, clearly this is all speculation but it's a figure worth referring to in a discussion.
[ed. note] I like to quickly state that if the Magic were to re-sign Hedo, I have a hard time seeing the team NOT enter the luxury tax to expedite the process. It's inevitable, given that the salary cap and tax threshold will dip a bit next season. Whether or not the front office for Orlando will elect to pay the tax is another story. In my opinion, I'd be a bit surprised if the owners didn't think it'd be worth the investment to enter the tax threshold to re-up Hedo. If Orlando doesn't want to pay the tax, the Magic can always exercise a trade and move a player (like Tony Battie, for example) to avoid getting hit in the pockets.
Some of you may ask, how will Turkoglu feel about the disparity in earnings between him and someone like, Rashard Lewis? To be honest, I don't think he'll care. I think Turkoglu just wants to net the money he deserves and secure his future financially, both for his family and himself. Turkoglu wants to stay in Orlando and ...
"I tend not to worry about his numbers because his greatness tends to be in his versatility and the number of things he can do. As long as we have Turk on the floor, we're a better team," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. "Even though his numbers are down, his versatility and the number of things he can do make him so valuable to us. Regardless of what the numbers say, he may be THE key guy for us offensively in terms of how he goes."
... it's obvious his coach wants him to stay.
Personally, I'm confident that Turkoglu will be around for the long haul. As I stated already, a variety of things are working in Orlando's favor. Turkoglu enjoys playing with the Magic and knows he has a chance to be a part of something special. In the end, the franchise offers Turkoglu the most out of all the teams with substantial cash available - a chance to win a Title, the continued opportunity to be a playmaker, etc. Plus, he can keep lobbing passes to Dwight Howard for sick alley-oop dunks.
Now, the amount of years & money Turkoglu should net is a completely different story altogether. That debate is better served during the off-season, when negotiations are taking place and actual numbers are being thrown out to the public. I digress.
The question I pose is, how confident are you - as a fan - that Turkoglu will be back? I'd do a poll but I like to get some dialogue going with everyone. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.
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I think he will be back...
and while, yes, I am one of those people that tends to feel as if we won’t need him as bad as others like to mention I would of course be happy to have him back.
Given that SVG thinks he is a key asset, I really do believe that unless Hedo just absolutely asks for too much, Otis would bring him back.
But as for the not having him around, I know that maybe short term he makes us better, but I can’t shake the idea that we have 2 really good wing players (Lee and Pietrus), with a third as a solid backup (JJ). OF COURSE Hedo makes us better, but financially I really wonder if he would be as worth it in 2 or 3 years given the development of our wings. I just question the value long term of having him be a bench player at the age of 35 and making 8 mil a year.
What do you guys think? I’m really on the ropes on this one…
A few points.
.. I’m on the edge with Hedo with regards to his production. Statistically, he’s having just an average year and clearly his numbers can be replaced by another player if Turk were to leave. BUT .. it’s clear that Hedo offers intangibles that not many other players in the league offer. He’s a 6’10’’ small forward that create match-up problems with his size, play the point when necessary, etc. Sometimes it’s not about the stats, but how a particular player fits in the grand scheme of things.
With that said, I wouldn’t regard Pietrus as a really good wing player. Aside from his defense, he’s more below-average .. Lee will be good, though. I like Redick too because he offers a nice offensive boost off the bench (last night against the Hawks was a perfect example of what he provides).
Again, the finances of the situation is a tough issue to discuss because we really don’t know the figures being discussed by both parties (Hedo and the Orlando Magic). We can speculate, but that’s it. I will state, personally, I hope that GM Otis Smith offers him 3 years, at the max .. but my gut says he’ll offer Turk 4 years .. which isn’t bad, necessarily, but the team is going to be real cash-strapped in the future.
We’ll see what happens.
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4 for 30/32 is more likely, i think.
not sure what that does to our tax situation, but i can’t see him only making 6 mil a year
www.last.fm/user/mhetrick04
Most likely, the Orlando Magic will have to dip into the luxury tax to re-up Hedo ..
.. they can avoid the threshold if they move someone like Tony Battie, a bench player who’s overpaid.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Cap space
I was concerned about this at the beginning of the season. After giving Pietrus the mid-level exception this year, plus the hefy contracts of Nelson, Howard and Lewis, do we have enough money to bring Turk back.
I’m on the fence about him as well…he usually gets shredded on defense 1-on-1 and there are just some nights where he can’t buy a shot. That being said, he’s a good crunch time player and is pretty good at getting at the rim. I’m not sure what the free agent field looks like for this coming year though so there may not be a better option.
The Magic have the money to re-sign Hedo, it's just a question ..
.. of whether or not they’re willing to enter the luxury tax to pay Turkoglu. I’m fairly certain Orlando will enter the threshold to re-up Turk .. the question is will GM Otis Smith, then, make another move to put the team back under the luxury tax? No one knows, at this point, the answer ..
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Here's a list of the free agent field in 2009, btw.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-09-10
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
I was just looking at that page...
…and it seems like pretty slim pickens. We will have almost no money coming off the books next year unless a trade is made.
This may seem like a ridiculous question to the casual fan…but if you had to choose between getting into a bidding war for Turk or letting Gortat walk, which do you pick?
by Lee for three on Apr 5, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm going to get blasted for this but ..
.. if there’s a bidding war, I’d re-up Gortat and make a trade with another team to replace Turkoglu.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Then we'll both get blasted...
because I agree and here’s why:
1) Gortat has tremendous upside…the guy would average a double-double as a starter. Move him to the four, Lewis to the 3 and you have a tremendous front court. Plus, you still have Nelson, Alston, Lee, JJ, Pietrus, Lewis who can knock down the three.
2) With a Gortat and Dwight patrolling the lane for 30+ mins a game, Orlando arguably becomes the best defensive team in the league.
3) The emergence of Jameer Nelson helps absorb the loss of Hedo…between him and Alston, next year there will ALWAYS be a good point guard on the floor. That hasn’t been the case in recent years, making Turk’s play at point-forward more valuable.
Don’t get me wrong…I’m not advocating kicking Hedo to the side….He’s a tremendous player and fits very well into our system. I just think if the price gets too high for him next year, there is definitely a very solid contingency plan. Ideally, Turk and Gortat take a discount to play for a team that will contend for titles for years to come. However, that’s not how professional sports always work.
by Lee for three on Apr 5, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I would agree, for the most part, with your contingency points.
.. except for the ‘starting Gortat’ part. He should continue to come off the bench and be the primary big man giving Dwight Howard a rest. Dwight and Marcin can’t really coexist on offense that well. They’d both clog the lane and ruin the spacing that SVG wants to have offensively. On defense, yeah .. the “twin towers” would make things impossible for opposing teams to deal with but it’s not worth the hit that would occur on offense, IMO.
It’s worth pointing out that Gortat has stated that he’d prefer to stay in Orlando. Now, it’ll be interesting to see if Marcin keeps singing that tune when money is thrown at him (which will happen this off-season). The Polish Hammer does want to stick around but I’m just not sure (if Hedo re-signs) that’ll actually happen. There’d be no money available for him.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Tough call either way
I do think this team is better with Turkoglu in there. He provides a matchup problem and because he and Rashard Lewis are so interchangeable, it seems like one will have a big game when the other is not. The emergence of Jameer Nelson and Lewis’ increased aggression this season has led partly to his fall in stats. Honestly, I do not think the Magic can work as well as they have this season with a traditional power forward and Turk is the perfect guy to pair with Lewis.
What is important though, is that the Magic do not overpay him. He might be worth $10 mill a year, but that would severely handicap the team money-wise and make bringing the quality role guys you need to win a title more difficult.
This is almost like the DeShawn Stevenson or Keyon Dooling situation. If he is out of our price range, I think we have to let him walk and try to find some sort of replacement. But if he is looking for $7-8 million, that is too much of a bargain to pass up.
Like I said, it is going to be a tough decision for both sides and probably one side is not going to get what it wants.
Philip
Not sure if you read the article, but Turkoglu pointed out, which is something I agree with ..
.. that defenses are keying on him more this season (making a note of his presence on the court). Yes, Jameer Nelson’s emergence has had a small effect on Hedo’s numbers dipping (Rashard Lewis, not really), but that’s not the main reason for the decline in Turk’s stats. Also, consider the fact Turkoglu DID have a career-year last year. It was to be expected for him to “regress to the mean”, which he has this year.
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I'd add that Hedo isn't worth 5 years/$50 million .. that's a bit too much paper.
.. I doubt Orlando will overpay for Turkoglu because well, they can’t afford to overpay him.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
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As far as I'm concerned they haven't stepped up
to the plate for Turk. Put him on the back burner. I think it has affected him. In the past he was there only go to guy and stepped up big. I think he deserves major consideration.At 6’10 he presents a tough match-up for any team.His numbers are down because when Jameer went down he had to become more of a distributor and his assists went up.He not only can shoot the 3 he drives hard,rebounds,great passer,creates plays and can play[ defense. Many nights he is the top assist man. If they lose him they lose a major cog in the wheel.
The Surfdog
Yeah, I don't understand that sentiment either.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
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I’m more than a little disappointed by all this talk about Turk’s numbers. I was instantly reminded of the NY Times Shane Battier article. Say what you will about Battier, the article makes a few excellent points. Some relevant quotes:
For most of its history basketball has measured not so much what is important as what is easy to measure — points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocked shots — and these measurements have warped perceptions of the game. ("Someone created the box score," Morey says, "and he should be shot.") How many points a player scores, for example, is no true indication of how much he has helped his team. Another example: if you want to know a player’s value as a rebounder, you need to know not whether he got a rebound but the likelihood of the team getting the rebound when a missed shot enters that player’s zone.
Here we have a basketball mystery: a player is widely regarded inside the N.B.A. as, at best, a replaceable cog in a machine driven by superstars. And yet every team he has ever played on has acquired some magical ability to win.
Magic fans should know better than anyone that numbers aren’t everything. Dwight’s not leading the league in scoring, but we all know the Magic wouldn’t be half as good a perimeter-shooting team without him. Which is why we know he blongs in the MVP conversation. Turk’s value doesn’t show up in the box score, and if you honestly think he can be replaced by Lee or Pietrus, you are not paying attention to some very basic indicators of his worth.
I already pointed out that Turkoglu offers intangibles that not many other players in the NBA have.
I’m all about numbers, but I also understand that box score stats don’t tell the whole story (trust me, I know). I don’t think anyone is saying Hedo can be replaced by Lee or Pietrus .. just that their presence can help mitigate a loss, somewhat, if Turk were to bounce for another team. That’s all that’s being said.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Fair enough. The whole idea that Turk’s having a worse year cause his numbers are down has been bothering me for a while now, and I was probably a little harsh for that reason. The Magic are about to have 60+ wins for chrissake – sure, Dwight & Lewis are having better years, and we’re getting help at PG that we haven’t had in a while, but in my mind, there’s no denying the role Turk plays.
Well, Hedo is having a worse year statistically, but that was to be expected.
I use the expression, “regress to the mean”, a lot and that’s what happened to Turkoglu this season. Offensively, Turk has been average when you look at the numbers but there’s no denying his intangibles .. Hedo makes game-winning shots, steps up his game in the fourth quarter, etc.
In the NBA, it’s not all about collecting the best players available. The Knicks tried that for years with Isaiah Thomas and looked at how that panned out .. it’s about constructing a team, piece by piece, that fits together seamlessly. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts.
Welcome to 3QC, btw!
Your comments have been sterling so far .. great discussion.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
I don't think the Magic are willing to go into the tax.
I just don’t see it. Pretty sure I read somewhere (Denton?) over the summer that DeVos has said no to the luxury tax at least until the team moves into the new arena… and that was before the economy went into the tank.
The feeling I've gotten, given what Orlando is accomplishing this season, is that it's a possibility.
.. in speaking with Steele in Milwaukee, that was the sentiment I gathered.
The team is moving into the new arena next season and even though the economy has crapped out, you would think that the new digs could offset the financial hit for the short-term. At least, I think so. Plus a lot of time has passed since the summer .. the Magic are a championship-caliber team. Now .. Orlando could explore alternatives if Hedo doesn’t come back, but that’s a risky proposition. If you’re the owner, you know what you got with Turkoglu .. and with Jameer Nelson coming back next season, the team becomes prohibitive favorites to win the Title. Do you eat a few millions to make that a reality (rhetorical question)?
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No. DeVos would rather, I believe, save a few million dollars and take his chances with a Magic team sans Hedo
I don’t expect him back if it means going into the tax.
Hmm .. well, if it comes down to it, Orlando could always make a trade to avoid paying the tax.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Ben is right. There is no way this team will go into the luxury tax with the DeVos family in charge. It’s possible, though, that the Magic can sign Hedo and stay under the threshhold. Hedo has been exposed a bit this year, and I don’t think he’s going to garner the same kind of money he would’ve gotten last season.
I agree that Hedo isn't going to net the payday he probably would have liked to see ..
.. but, I find it impossible for the Magic to re-sign Turkoglu without dipping into the tax for a short amount of time. Unless Orlando signs Turk to under $6 million (which won’t happen), the team is going to enter the threshold. The only way to appease the situation for the owners, then, is to trade a player to dip the team back under the threshold.
Right now, if my figures are right, $63,626,020 is on the books next year for 9 players. The luxury tax is slated to be at $69.4 .. like I said, a trade needs to be made. I’ve been holding out hope that Tony Battie gets moved (only if Gortat were to come back), because he’s an overpaid bench player that isn’t worth his price tag .. we’ll see what happens.
Thanks for dropping by with your thoughts, Zach.
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They haven't stepped up
because they could have done something for him before the season started. They new he wasn’t happy with the disparity of the salaries and they chose to do nothing and let it play out. Now there worried that he might move on. That to me is not stepping up!
The Surfdog
I suspect he wants the Magic to “step up” with 5 years and $50m. He’s not getting that, and would probably be insulted if we came in with a more realistic, say, 4 years and $30m contract.
So we haven’t offered him anything, and will wait to see what he gets offered on the market. If someone offers him $8m a season for 3 or 4 seasons, we’ll match without question.
If someone offers more, maybe we make a decision to go with other options.
If Turk expects us to give him a top of the market deal in the middle of the season in a slumping economy when hardly anyone has cap room in the summer, well…
by eltharion_doa on Apr 5, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I think, when it's all said and done, the Magic will get their way with the contract negotiations.
David Steele said it to me best .. Turk’s agent is just putting up a front. The majority of agents in sports make demands for this and that, but when it eventually comes down to it, they fold to the demands of the respective team he or she is dealing with. That’s why players pay for the services of agents like Rosenhaus, because they don’t fold to the demands of the team. It’s vice-versa.
Turkoglu’s agent knows what’s up. He realizes that Hedo is in a good situation right now with the Magic and in the end, there isn’t another team out there (who has substantial amount of money available in free agency) that can offer his client the same things Orlando can offer. That’s the reality of the situation and the reason, as I stated in my post above, why I’m confident Turk will be back. The monetary issue (for the player & the team) will work itself out, in the end.
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" I can't keep knocking on the door without them answering"
I believe that is what he meant by this statement and i don’t blame him. This should have never gotten this far.
The Surfdog
Read Hedo's statement
I agree with his sentiments. He has tried to get something done with his contract and there has been no offer. He was put on the back burner.When all is said and done he’ll probably be gone. I hope not.
The Surfdog
It's better not to have to deal with the distractions of contract negotiations during the season.
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I know, but Orlando was smart for waiting. If they re-sign him, it'll be for cheaper money.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Not necessarily because now your inviting a bidding war.
And you know what that means. Somebody is going to offer him what he’s worth and he’s gone. They won’t be able to match it. Watch this play out.
The Surfdog
I understand that but it's true that if Orlando re-signs him, it'll be for cheaper money. That's all I'm trying to get at .. I understand the dangers by playing the hand a certain way.
Thing is .. again, the Magic were smart for waiting because it would have been un-wise to pay Hedo a ton of money if they felt his numbers would naturally dip a bit this season, which it has (regressing to the mean). It’s a gamble, sure, as you point out but in the grand scheme of things, it makes the most sense economically.
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I don't think it is going to play out that way because
in the long run once he tests the market and the bidding war begins the price will rise significantly.I think the interest in him will be more than you think even though his #‘s are down. I have seen this happen many times with other players in the past and they may or may not be worth it. His scoring #’‘s are down but i don’t think they are going to save anything because the demand will be there.
The Surfdog
Even if there's a bidding war, as you suggest, think about this ..
.. the teams with copious amount of money available are the Grizzlies, Pistons, and Thunder. It wouldn’t make sense for either the respective teams or Hedo to entertain the idea of making something happen because of a.) Rudy Gay, b.) Tayshaun Prince, and c.) Kevin Durant.
Where would Turk fit? Just doesn’t make sense, logically. Unless Turkoglu plays SG or PF, with those teams already having established SF’s .. just don’t see anything happening there. Only Prince can change positions and make something work (but I doubt Dumars would want him at PF, given how bad that strategy was). Gay can’t because of Mayo and the fact he can’t play PF; Durant can’t because he’s best suited as a SF, etc.
We’ll see.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
If we want to pay Hedo, we will. We can structure a deal so that he gets paid less next season, when we’re tight against the cap, and more later, as deals come off the books. Say 6m next season, 8m for the three seasons after that and 10m in his final season, which will get us cap relief [b]and[/b] get Hedo his money, presuming he’d be happy with that.
The only way Turk doesn’t come back is if someone offers him more money or we decide he’s not worth paying.
Right, that's another option. Tweak the escalators in the contract to make the signing feasible.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C
Keep him
The 2 small forward lineup is a proven winner at this point so no need to mess it up. With the rising stars of Nelson, Lee, and Howard our talent level will only continue to increase over the duration of a 3-4 year extension to Hedo. So even considering the declining value of Hedo and Lewis due to age concerns we can still expect an excellent product to be on the court every night. Loosing Hedo would be a step back talent wise, a shock to the system for a team that is really proving to have it going on at all levels, and a morale hit to team chemistry.
'Coach, Dwight is a nice guy. Dwight don't hit anybody. But Superman will knock the crap out of you.' - D12
by Eyriq the Red on Apr 5, 2009 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
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Well said.
I think Hedo has proven his worth regardless. Speculation is not getting it done. A meeting of the minds has to start somewhere. Give the man his due.
The Surfdog
It will, but it has to take place after the season.
Orlando is taking the right approach. There’s more pressing concerns right now than contract negotiations for the Magic .. the team is trying to win a Title this year and doesn’t want Turkoglu mentally distracted.
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Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

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