Chance For The Finals, Possibly Championship: Any Takers?

by Jaceman on Apr 2, 2009 6:11 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

I'm 100% serious here, I like the Magic coming out of the East, in fact, I'm picking them to go at least to the Finals, with a shot at winning it all. Really. Without Jameer Nelson, that's right. While depth continues to be an issue, I don't know that it'll be as big of a problem as some might consider.

If the playoffs were to start today the Eastern Conference would look something like this:

Round 1:

Cleveland v Chicago

Boston v Detroit

Orlando v Miami

Atlanta v Philadelphia

Round 2 (my predictions):

Cleveland v Atlanta

Boston v Orlando

Eastern Conference Finals

Cleveland v Orlando

That's something along the lines of how it will go. I think that Orlando firstly will have a fairly easy time with Miami, if Philly falls to 6 they'll have a fairly easy time with Philly. Should Orlando clamber to 2nd over Boston, then Detroit would be a harder matchup, or rather, a bigger unknown. If they keep playing as they have been, they're a quick and easy out in the first round. As stated previously by many, Magic actually matchup pretty favorably against the Cavs on the basis that LeBron James doesn't really like driving against Dwight Howard. Not to say that means Orlando is a surefire win against the Cavs should they meet in a 7 game series, but definitely, it shouldn't be too surprising should they squeak out a win.

So the biggest question then ends up being the Boston matchup. If Orlando can make it past Boston, then I say they have a 50/50 shot of making the Finals. Some have already speculated that Kevin Garnett's knee problem may be like last year's Andrew Bynum injury. Which if it is definitely gives the Magic a huge edge over the Celtics. While they don't have Jameer, Magic do still have Turk, Lewis, and Howard who at the very least get decent looks from the offense as dictated by Rafer Alston. I actually think that Boston, on the other hand, is a much worse team than they were last year. The loss of Posey and Brown definitely hurt them, even were they all healthy, Marbury + Moore + Tony Allen really isn't up to par with Cassell + Brown + Posey. I'm gonna say that Boston doesn't make the Finals this year, so if they beat the Magic, LeBron's going to the Finals again.

I definitely think losing Jameer hurt them, but still, I believe the Magic to be very, very serious contenders.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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Can someone cue up some Journey?

Poor Man's GM @ jacemannba.blogspot.com

by Jaceman on Apr 2, 2009 6:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd disagree .. sort of.

If the Magic face off against Miami or Philadelphia, they’ll dispense of either team fairly swiftly. However, the first point of concern is winning TOO fast. The rest efficiency numbers don’t lie .. Orlando is 27th in efficiency differential when playing with more than three days rest. That could potentially be a problem if the Magic were to advance into the semifinals and wait a bit to play the Celtics (better hope the C’s end their series quickly).

If Boston has home-court advantage against Orlando, I can’t see the Magic beating the Celtics. Yes, Boston is worse this year than last year, but they’re still slightly better than Orlando (with KG). If Orlando has home-court advantage against Boston, I’d consider the series a toss-up .. with a 50/50 chance for both teams.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the Magic beat the Celtics and move on to the conference finals .. yes, Orlando matches up well with Cleveland (and are capable of beating the Cavs in a seven-game series). But at the end of the day, I just think LeBron will be too much to handle.

Right now, I have it Cavaliers v. Lakers .. with Cleveland winning it all.

If Jameer Nelson was around, than yeah .. I’d favor the Magic to win it all. But he’s injured, so it’s a moot point.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 2, 2009 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll add that Andrew Bynum is the wild card for the Lakers if they were to make it to the Finals.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 2, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just out of curiosity...

…how many games have we played on more than 3 days’ rest? Because I wouldn’t be surprised if the number wasn’t statistically significant…

by 3.3seconds on Apr 4, 2009 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If I did my math right, 3 games.

Small sample size but still an eye-catcher.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 4, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Boston's the key

The Magic match up well against the Cavs, and even match up well against the Lakers. The real question, imo, is Boston.

How healthy will Garnett be? The answer to that question will likely determine the outcome of the second round series between Orlando and Boston – especially, if Boston has home-court advantage. Thats not to say Orlando can’t beat a healthy Boston team, but they’re sure more likely to beat a beat up team.

Boston IS going to be coming off a potentially brutal series against the Pistons (if they finish 2nd) so its very possible they’ll still be banged up.

by RussL on Apr 3, 2009 11:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree that Boston is the wild card in this entire scenario.

If Orlando can somehow get past them, I like the Magic’s chances against anyone then ..

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 4, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

We should feel good against anyone but Boston.

I don’t think the Celtics can beat the Cavs, so if we go out to the Celtics I think it’ll be a LeBron v Kobe Finals.

I would say both the Magic and Cavs would like their chances against the Lakers, though. The Lakers would beat the Celtics.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 6, 2009 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd agree on all your points.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 9, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't forget: things can change in a 7-game series

It’s not like we’re only playing one game. SVG and the Magic have shown an ability to adapt to situations (remember that huge road trip a couple months ago?). The Magic are going to have a lot of time to study the Celtics and how to stop guys in particular situations. With the right coaching, the right attitude, and a little luck, I think we might be able to beat Boston at home.

by kerem on Apr 7, 2009 10:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that said, boston is particularly good at

shutting down our go-to options on offense. we don’t really have any great matchups to exploit, and boston is great at defending the perimeter. along with everywhere else. my thought is that we’re going to have to figure out some new ideas if we wanna be effective on offense – and we’ll probably need one or two guys to just step it up.

by kerem on Apr 7, 2009 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Only if KG is healthy.

I think Orlando is slightly deeper than Boston.

Poor Man's GM @ jacemannba.blogspot.com

by Jaceman on Apr 9, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even if KG were to be out, I'd consider Boston and Orlando even.

.. remember, the Magic are missing Jameer Nelson so if the C’s are at full strength, the home troops are at a slight disadvantage.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 9, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They need to go back and and watch that last Clev.game tape.

They need to move the ball like that and have that kind of intensity from the get go. If they hang back like they did the last 2 games Boston will eat em up. The question is can they do that against Boston’s defense which is much better than the Cavs.

The Surfdog

by Surfdog on Apr 9, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland's defense is just as good as Boston's.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2009.html

All Orlando needs to do is continue to utilize Dwight Howard in pick & rolls .. get him moving around because his speed is a strength that can be used against Kendrick Perkins. Also, the Magic just need to dribble penetrate because that breaks down the Boston defense. As long as the team does those two main things, they should be fine against the Celtics .. easier said than done, obviously.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 9, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think u have to assume KG will be there

I’m putting him in the mix because i think he will be there.

The Surfdog

by Surfdog on Apr 9, 2009 11:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree. I'm assuming KG will be around in the playoffs as well

All I’m saying is that Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando are all comparably defensively. No team in the trio really stands out from the pack, though if all teams were fully healthy, I’d give the edge to the Celtics.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 10, 2009 4:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs