Orlando Magic News for April 14th: Experts Chime In On Dwight Howard & Stan Van Gundy, All Eyes On The #6 Seed, and More

Dwight Howard, 4th

Howard's name has yet to come up much in this column, nor has he gotten much love in the MVP discussion. WARP suggests that in terms of value, Howard has been much closer to the top three candidates than to the rest of the pack. In terms of box-score stats, he has provided more value at the defensive end than any player in the league, which is part of why I made Howard my Defensive Player of the Year.

 

Where Howard suffers in this breakdown is in terms of plus-minus stats. His net plus-minus (+8.9) is solid, but not spectacular. Howard's adjusted plus-minus is almost exactly average (+0.04). I suspect a lot of this is randomness. The standard error of Howard's adjusted plus-minus (6.1) is on the high side. If you break down the numbers, it appears what hurts Howard's rating is the fact that Orlando has played very well with neither Howard nor backup center Marcin Gortat on the court, outscoring teams by 6.9 points per 48 minutes in these situations, usually with Tony Battie in the middle and presumably mostly from early in the season when Gortat had yet to claim the backup job.

 

Alas, we're talking about 341 minutes of basketball, and it's hard to draw meaningful conclusions from what amounts to seven games. In pr actice, this somehow plays out such that all three Magic centers are considered neutral or worse, while other players (mostly Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson) get credit for the team's strong play.

 

This is one of those situations where I just don't feel adjusted plus-minus is a meaningful indicator. I'm much more inclined to trust the individual stats, which show Howard to belong right in the MVP debate.

Stan Van Gundy, 1st

The main reason is that he's as unrelenting as his he demands his team to be. Now, a lot of coaches demand that their players play the nearly perfect game. They browbeat and fume and jump on every possession and never let up. Those guys are usually burned out by the All-Star break, regardless of outcome, and the players eventually tune them out before long. The latter might eventually happen to SVG, we don't know, but we do know that he hasn't given up this year at all.

Stan Van Gundy, 2nd

Dwight Howard, 1st

Now that we know it's down to the Bulls and Sixers, who would you rather see? I think I'm going to root pretty hard for the Bulls. Chicago has played well during the second half of the season, but the Bulls are poised for a one and done playoff series.

The Sixers on the other hand have a veteran point guard in Andre Miller, and a proven closer in Andre Iguodala. Don't forget that Philly almost upset Detroit in last year's playoffs as well.

The Bulls would rather play Orlando than Boston in the first round of the playoffs. You know you can run your offensive sets against the Magic and devise a game plan to play them. The No. 2 seed Celtics, meanwhile, can make a game ugly with their commitment to defense. Chicago has been as hot as anybody. It has a nice mix with veterans John Salmons and Brad Miller. Salmons is a guy who has great size for a swingman and can score over people.

A few things we learned in New Jersey and Milwaukee:

-Vince Carter still has plenty of game. Give him credit for playing out the season with gusto, despite his team’s overall disappointment.

-Adonal Foyle still has a few gallons in the tank. His performance in Milwaukee was inspired and inspiring. One rebound shy of his first double/double since December of 2005.

-There is no such thing as spring up north. It may arrive sometime in the future, but not yet. Magic fans in central Florida, you are spoiled. Of course, they get us back in July when we’re collecting sweat in buckets.

-We got a chance to see where we might be without Howard, Lewis and Turkoglu. It isn’t pretty. Funny how the game changes when your three best players are out of the lineup. Here’s to a healthy postseason.

Both of these teams still have much to prove. Orlando, despite pushing 60 victories, still is way too reliant on three-point shooting to strike a lot of playoff fear into opponents' hearts. Denver, despite its lofty perch behind only the Lakers, needs to get out of the first round for once to be taken seriously. These two might as well duke it out for first claim of legitimacy.