Haslem? Why not Marcin Gortat?

by farfromfl on Apr 14, 2009 1:20 AM EDT

Everybody seems enamored with Udonis Haslem, but I'm not convinced he's the answer for the Magic at PF. First off, Lewis has done much better at the position this year than last year, defensively. Secondly, in the event they lose Hedo over the summer (although I truly hope they don't), I think Marcin Gortat can put up Haslem-like numbers at the four spot without any problem. He's younger, and taller, and rapidly developing. I see Gortat developing into a great role player at the four or five spot through his career. Naysayers can reference the decision to keep Bo Outlaw over Big Ben.

This FanPost was made by a member of the Orlando Pinstriped Post community, and is to be treated as the opinions and views of its author, not that of the blogger or blog community as a whole.

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First off, welcome to 3QC!

.. and let’s take a look at Haslem’s numbers. I want to concentrate, more so, defensively.

opposing PER: 15.1 (against PF’s), 17.3 (against C’s)
net defensive plus/minus: -0.6
eFG% allowed: 51.1%

I’d like to think that Udonis’ eFG% allowed percentage takes a hit because Haslem was forced to play at center for part of the season (which put him at a disadvantage, defensively). I think, taking into that fact, the numbers (for the most part) suggest that Udonis Haslem is an average defender, at this point. But as always is the case, you’d have to assume Haslem may benefit a bit from playing alongside Howard. There is some precedence to track the impact Udonis has on defense when paired next to a dominant big man (Shaq). In 2005-2006, Haslem rated as an above-average defender.

Marcin Gortat’s numbers, defensively, are better (even if an improvement were to occur for Udonis Haslem).
http://www.82games.com/0809/08ORL13.HTM

Offensively, both players are comparable. Haslem does carry a bit more versatility to his game, given that he can nail mid-range jumpers with consistency and regularity. Gortat doesn’t have that ability right now. If you think about it, Udonis (offensively at least) would fit better with Dwight because he can help spread the floor a bit. As I touched on earlier today in a post, Marcin can’t do that because of his inability to pose as a threat on the perimeter. Thus, Gortat clogs the lane with he’s playing alongside Howard, eliminating the spacing head coach Stan Van Gundy demands on offense.

It’s a tough call. I’d go with Gortat because of he’s young, a better defender, has potential, etc.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 1:12 AM EDT reply actions

I agree with your last line,

but in terms of power forward, Haslem gets the job done.

Gortat should be first off bench, THEN things get scary.

by fwedo on Apr 14, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I totally agree.

Even though Haslem is more experienced, Gortat has more potential.

The Surfdog

by Surfdog on Apr 14, 2009 1:26 AM EDT reply actions

I liked the Twin Towers Experience.

And if they could learn to play together on offense which i think they can do. ( Gortat develops a jump shot) I think Gortat is capable of that. Then you got a fearsome twosome!!

The Surfdog

by Surfdog on Apr 14, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Gortat can develop a jumpshot if he worked on it.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Gortat for THREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

is all I need to say.

This post was bought to you by British beer, cured meat products and Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje: the player so good, they named him twice.

by big aaron on Apr 14, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Now I'm getting excited!

The Surfdog

by Surfdog on Apr 14, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Haslem gets mentioned a lot because he’s a high quality rebounder + defender, and because he can make jump shots on the offensive end. His offensive ability, and rebounding, makes him a very good fit next to Howard.

I don’t think Howard + Gortat are a good fit alongside one another, chiefly because of offensive reasons that have already been mentioned – spacing + jump shooting.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 6:04 AM EDT reply actions

Also, Haslem is one of the first names mentioned because he was the quintessential glue guy on a Championship team.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 6:11 AM EDT up reply actions

rebounding/defending, Gortat > Haslem.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions

I’d go with Haslem on the defense.

For rebounding? Definitely Gortat.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Really? It's kind of hard to dispute the numbers indicating it's the other way.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m not wild about making evaluations on defensive ability solely on the numbers … not enough trust in those numbers yet.

But even at that, Haslem opposing PER is 15.1 and Gortat’s is 15.4 when they’re playing the power forward position. And Gortat hasn’t played many minutes at the four so it’s hard to know how those numbers will hold up for him.

I think Haslem’s superior mobility, and excellent team defense, makes him a better defender at the four.

If I wanted a defender at the center position, then I’d choose Gortat.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I would agree that defensive metrics are a work in progress ..

.. but they at least paint a decent picture as to how good/bad a player is defensively.

With that said, I think Gortat’s numbers at PF would hold up with extended minutes. Likewise, when looking at his net defensive plus/minus, it’s +1.0 .. but that’s with playing behind Dwight Howard, so that number is skewed a bit and would probably be lower (which means better) if he’d be starting. Likewise, Marcin’s eFG% allowed is excellent (45.9%). The kicker for me is Haslem’s numbers when paired with a dominant big man in the past .. Gortat’s numbers are better, overall, and in comparison when paired with Howard. Having those two side-by-side in limited minutes have produced some pretty stout defensive numbers.

Likewise, Gortat’s WARP is 2.9 whereas Haslem’s WARP is 1.3, and that’s with Udonis having an advantage minutes-wise. That alone furthers my belief in picking Marcin.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I don’t know much about the WARP stat. Do you think that does a good job evaluating defense?

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

It's Wins Above Replacement Player

http://www.sonicscentral.com/warp.html

Kevin Pelton, a friend and writer at Basketball Prospectus, created that particular metric. I believe this linear rating does a better job of incorporating defense (a valid concern) than say, PER, which is why I like to reference it a bit. It has its flaws, as does every advanced statistic out there, but it’s real useful, nevertheless.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

BTW, I'd agree that Haslem is the better help defender than Gortat.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Gortat should do everything possible to leave Orlando this summer. It’ll be damaging to his career if he stays here and is stuck behind Dwight Howard.

I’d love to see him get an opportunity to start somewhere. I think he can be a 8-12ppg and 10-12rpg guy, with good defense, if he’s given 33-36 minutes a night. He’d be a bargain financially too — I’d love to see a GM offer him a 5 year $15mil contract and lock him long term while giving him major minutes. That would be a superb move. A cheap high quality role player at center.

Gortat is one of the sleepers in this off-season’s free agent class.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 6:09 AM EDT reply actions

You've gotta think that Poe, Millsap, and Lee are going to command most of the attn.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Evan Dunlap on Apr 14, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Gortat can easily start in the league and average a double-double for a team.

I wouldn’t really call him a sleeper when the cat’s been out of the bag with him this year. Plus, a problem for Gortat, as Ben alluded to, is that Boozer/Lee/Millsap/Powe/etc. are going to be ahead in the pecking order. Note that I said it’s A problem, Gortat will still net some coin from a team when it’s all said and done.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I disagree

I don’t think the cat is out of the bag at all …. I agree that it should be based on what he’s done …. but I don’t think it is. I think Gortat is flying way below the radar. I also think it’s more likely than not that he fails to get a good contract offer this summer, and that he fails to get offered a starting position at another club.

Gortat has a great reputation with Orlando Magic fans but I don’t think that reputation travels far.

I think GM’s around the league are talking about Glen Davis more than Gortat — which is bonkers!

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I think his reputation does travel far. He's gotten dap on ESPN and other media outlets.

Peter Vescey, of all people, labeled him the Mehmet Okur of this year’s free agent class. I know GMs are talking about him because of my discussions about Gortat with David Steele, plus the fact that Marcin’s performances this season has put many GMs on notice, given that he’s a RFA.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m sure you follow Magic news more closely than I do, so I’ll take your word for it. But I haven’t been seeing his name mentioned in many places in relation to this year’s free agent class … and not anywhere near as much as I think his name deserves to be mentioned.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions

.. I haven't seen his name mentioned in many places either. We agree there.

But I do know his name does get tossed around in the “inner circles” of the NBA. With a growing acceptance and reference/use of advanced statistics when making personnel moves, I’m more than certain Marcin Gortat is on a lot of team’s radars.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Pretty sure I read somewhere earlier this month that Davis might get offered the mid-level exception

Glen Davis!

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Evan Dunlap on Apr 14, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

It sort of ties into what Kelly Dwyer said when saying he’d the Rockets GM Executive of the Year – a lot of GMs are happy to put a “name” they recognise on the bench rather than ever scouting out to see what’s available that could give them depth and ability right down their bench.

Much like we’d rather trade for Lue than call up the best guy in the D-league.

You’re probably not going to get fired for giving Davis the MLE, but if your big free agent signing is Marcin Gortat you might come in for some criticism and I think a lot of GMs – as in most areas in life – will take an easy, though potentially much weaker option, over a more risky but potentially much more productive option.

by eltharion_doa on Apr 14, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

The key to Boston's bench has been Poe, but since Davis is (much) bigger and has played more often lately, due to Powe's injury, it's not hard to imagine him getting more money.

Glen Davis! More than Leon Powe!

I don’t get it.

Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation

by Evan Dunlap on Apr 14, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep, there have been a bunch of writers are writing that Davis may command the MLE or close to it. And most of the ones that aren’t have Davis around the $3-4mil mark. He’s getting a lot of attention. Extremely few are saying he’ll get less than that.

He’s gotten a lot of attention over the last two months.

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/

by NBR on Apr 14, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis has been playing relatively well lately, but still ..

.. he shouldn’t be netting the full MLE. No way.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

Used to mix the wine with the lean/Now we sip soda with the Barre/20 inch blades on the car - Pimp C

by erivera7 on Apr 14, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

The guy's European!

Doesn’t he have some type of natural gift for spreading the floor a dropping threes?! =) Just figured I’d throw that out there in jest. I’m sure Marcin could develop a “J,” but I also agree that he’s hurting his career by staying, if he does. I’d take Millsap or Lee first, but I’d have to think about Marcin vs. Powe, and I’d definitely take him over Davis. This is understanding that he gets minutes. I honestly see Marcin’s numbers looking like a healthy Tyson Chandler’s if given the opportunity. Great upside.

Thanks for the welcome and the great response.

Chief

by farfromfl on Apr 14, 2009 10:27 PM EDT reply actions