Dwight Howard And The MVP Award

Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images
TrueHoop, today, unveiled a lengthy piece which covers the current MVP race. A number of notable team blogs were approached to provide a snippet of their respective opinions concerning the stable of MVP candidates (Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Chris Paul, and Dwyane Wade).
Ben and I were asked by TrueHoop to comment on Dwight and discuss his chances of winning the MVP award (slim to none), whether he deserves consideration for the hardware (yes), etc. I highly suggest giving the post a read.
Now that I’ve taken care of the disclaimer, I wanted to reiterate the fact only a snippet of the opinions of Ben was posted. We both delved into the topic quite a bit, actually, so I think it’s appropriate to unveil our entire transcript.
Ben talked about Howard’s offense while I elaborated on Howard’s defense. Additionally, we both provided brief commentary on the MVP award in general.
Click after the jump to read what we had to say.
Ben Q. Rock:
Before I delve into Dwight Howard's offense, I'd like to make a few general comments about the MVP award.
My biggest problem with it is voters' tendency to reward team success, using the "best player on the best team" formula. Kobe Bryant won it last year despite averaging fewer points, fewer rebounds, fewer assists, the same amount of steals, and fewer blocks and shooting worse from the field than LeBron James, and he was playing on a faster-paced team. Yet because L.A. finished (barely) with the West's best record, and because Bryant had never won the award before, the press rewarded him. It was silly and stupid.
Another flawed basis for selecting the award is rewarding players whose teams struggled when they miss time with injury. While a team's performance without a key player can give some idea as to his true "value," voting for a player on that basis punishes similarly gifted players who stayed healthy. And being healthy is part of being valuable.
With that off my chest, here's a look at Dwight Howard's offense, and how it relates to his MVP candidacy.
We know that Dwight, who appears to have locked-up this season's Defensive Player of the Year award, gets most of his attention due to his performance at that end of the floor. But he's a two-way player, as evidenced by his leading the Magic--the league's seventh-most efficient offense as of Sunday--in scoring with 20.9 per game. And he does that despite only taking fourth-most shot attempts on the team. Using words like "raw" and "unrefined," his detractors have questioned his actual skill level, because he gets so many of his points on dunks and put-backs. Maybe they aren't paying enough attention, because although he is by no means an elite scorer in the low post, his footwork has improved tremendously, and he can finish with either hand. This isn't Dikembe Mutombo or Tyson Chandler we're talking about.
When assessing his offensive impact, we should look beyond what he does when he has the ball. Just being there, on the floor, in the paint, requires defenses to adjust their game-plan. Few teams have the personnel to single-cover him, meaning they must decide beforehand from which side, and with which player, to double-team him. Orlando's collection of excellent three-point shooters--six men in the current rotation, not including the injured Jameer Nelson, shoot between 37% and 40% from beyond the arc--further complicates the defense's decision-making. None of that happens without Howard. Orlando is a three-point shooting team that would hardly get open three-point looks without him on the floor.
No, it isn't "sexy," to use Stan Van Gundy's word, to lead the league in blocks and rebounding while averaging 21 points per game. What makes perimeter players like Bryant, James, and Dwyane Wade more appealing MVP candidates is their higher points-per-game averages and their ability to take over games down the stretch. It's true that Howard, as a center, is rarely in position to dominate games offensively when needed. Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, and Nelson (when healthy) are Orlando's go-to players in those situations, and based on their recent body of work, that strategy needs no tinkering. Dwight doesn't have to impose his will offensively in crunch time because their are four other, more qualified players who can do that. And while I don't want to discuss his defense in too much detail--that's what my colleague erivera7 will address--Dwight is tops in the NBA in rebounding and fifth in blocked shots per 48 minutes of "clutch" play, according to 82games.com. He is just as effective late in games as anyone else in the league, but does not put up huge offensive stats in doing so. However, his very presence on the floor helps his perimeter teammates take care of things on that end.
Subtly dominant offensively. Emphatically dominant defensively. Dwight Howard is just as valuable to his team, if not moreso, than anyone else is in this league. Don't be fooled by the league's perimeter bias.
Eddy Rivera:
Does Dwight Howard deserve the MVP award?
In a word, no, but he deserves to be in the discussion.
The reason why Dwight Howard warrants consideration for the honor is due, more so, to his contributions on the defensive side of the ball for the Orlando Magic. Howard, at this point, isn’t going to put up obscene numbers offensively (as pointed out by my colleague, Ben). His repertoire is still expanding and head coach Stan Van Gundy values a balanced attack on offense. For instance, if you look at the usage rate of Howard, it’s only 26.1%, which is less than the rates of the other MVP candidates.
However, where Howard makes his presence felt is on defense. It’s no secret that the Magic have become an elite defensive team (2nd in efficiency) and Howard is the main reason why this is the case. Howard has been able to do a plethora of things – clean up the mistakes of his teammates, guard the paint, intimidate opponents from penetrating into the lane with his shot-blocking ability, etc. Howard's continued growth on defense can’t be understated.
The reason why
All in all, Howard has been a force on the defensive end for the Magic. Just look at the statistics – 1st in rebounding rate, 3rd in block percentage, eFG% allowed is 46.6% (which is excellent and tops among the MVP candidates), and more (here’s a further in-depth look at Howard’s defensive numbers). When you consider the fact several Magic players aren’t known as great defenders, it makes Howard’s impact on defense more impressive.
Should the MVP be the best player in the league? The best player on the best team? The player who makes the biggest difference to his team?
Personally, I think the MVP should go to the best player in the league (I’ll save my explanation as to why). Because of that, there’s no doubt in my mind that LeBron James is the MVP so far this season (with Chris Paul & Dwyane Wade a close second). When determining value, I look at the numbers.
Minutes Per Game
Kobe Bryant - 36.4
Dwight Howard - 35.9
LeBron James - 38.1
Chris Paul - 38.0
Dwyane Wade - 38.5
2 year adjusted plus/minus
Kobe Bryant - 4.17
Dwight Howard – 2.44
LeBron James – 18.46
Chris Paul – 18.89
Dwyane Wade – 19.10
net plus/minus
Kobe Bryant – 11.1
Dwight Howard – 8.9
LeBron James – 23.2
Chris Paul – 23.4
Dwyane Wade – 17.6
WARP
Kobe Bryant – 11.9
Dwight Howard – 17.5
LeBron James – 22.6
Chris Paul – 20.4
Dwyane Wade – 20.6
I like to quickly address that Howard's respective plus/minus numbers seem to be a bit fluky. The reason for this is the fact that back-up center Marcin Gortat has played well this season. Thus, Gortat’s productivity has cut into some of Howard’s statistics.
Obviously there are a plethora of statistics that can be used, but when looking at some of the numbers provided (which calculate value in different ways), it’s clear that James has some competition for MVP. However, I give James the nod when looking at the stats, overall, as well as acknowledge the fact that James has been the most clutch and the superior defender out of the aforementioned trio. If it was any other year, Paul or Wade would have taken home the hardware.
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21 comments
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Comments
If Dwight doesn't win DPOY
It would be a travesty. His defense down the stretch of the NYK game yesterday is the main reason the Magic won that game.
It is a bit ridiculous that he isn’t considered an MVP candidate, especially when you see the criteria of the other candidates. His team has the fourth best record in the league, he’s the best player on the team (by far), and he’s the best defensive player in the league, yet somehow his name isn’t included in MVP discussions. No, he shouldn’t win it, but it’s a joke that he’s not even being considered by most.
Hello.
by killa3312 on Mar 24, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Normally I'd agree
But in this case, the ridiculous thing isn’t that Howard’s not being considered. It’s that anyone other than LeBron is. Seriously, if we’re considering two people, Howard’s as good a choice for the second person as anybody. But this is a one-horse race. It’s not even close. It’s not even close to being close. LeBron has the best stats, and his team has the best record despite the weakest supporting cast. There is no measure by which he isn’t the obvious MVP.
Yes, Howard is a better defender — but that’s like saying Paul is a better passer. It’s a lot easier for a center to be dominant on defense than a small forward — and a lot more required. Anyway, I think it’s clear that LeBron is the NBA’s best defender and best passer at his position.
by 3.3seconds on Mar 24, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would disagree that the MVP is a one-horse race. It's not.
.. LeBron is at the top of the totem poll, but CP3 and Wade are right there.
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can see Paul in a kind of apples-and-oranges way, though I suspect he doesn’t have the scoring to mount a serious challenge. But Wade how? Wade’s stats are almost identical to LeBron’s; somewhat worse, even. He’s not as good a rebounder, and despite the position disparity, their assist totals are similar.
But Wade is playing for a team barely above .500, and I’ve been distinctly unimpressed by what I’ve seen of his management of the offense. He reminds me of Kobe circa 2005 — he looks for his own shot first, followed by his own shot, followed by his own shot. And when he does pass the ball, it’s not generally to the best man. I’m not one to say that the best player in the league can’t play for a non-great team, but in this case, there’s no statistical reason to prefer Wade over Kobe in the first place. So even if you see it as a tie, I’m willing to accept team performance as a tiebreaker.
And I’m pretty sure the consensus is that LeBron is the better defender — not that Wade’s not a good defender, but LeBron is a first-team all-defensive lock.
Basically, Wade’s a great player, but he doesn’t really excel at his main job — running the offense, getting other people involved. And unless I’m missing something, there isn’t anything he does better than LeBron…
by 3.3seconds on Mar 24, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you bother looking at the explanation & numbers I posted above?
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, and other than adjusted +/- — a deeply flawed stat which really measures the quality of a player’s backup as much as anything else — they’re all in favor of James. And given that the subjective judgment is in favor of him as well, it’s difficult to overturn that.
by 3.3seconds on Mar 24, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would agree that APM is flawed, but it's still a viable metric to use.
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Go easy on Wade
The MVP award is now LeBron’s to lose, but you made some comments about Wade that are pretty inaccurate.
First, any comparison between Wade this season and Kobe in ‘05 needs to stop. Kobe took 27.2 shots pg, shot 45% from the field, and had 4.5 apg. Wade’s taking 21.9 shots pg, shoots 49.3% from the field, and has 7.6 apg. Wade is a much more efficient scorer and unselfish player than Kobe was, or is, for that matter.
Saying Wade “doesn’t really excel at his main job – running the offense, getting other people involved,” is just foolish. First, a two guard’s main job usually isn’t to run the offense. As it stands, Wade’s doing a good job running the offense anyway.
I really don’t know if LeBron’s a better defender than Wade or not. It is interesting to note, though, that Wade is third in the league in blocks p48min of “clutch time,” behind Dalembert and Turiaf. Howard is 5th.
by kfair on Mar 24, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on Wade and I'll add that ..
.. Dwyane’s eFG% allowed is 50%.
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809MIAP.HTM
James’ eFG% allowed is 46.7%
http://www.82games.com/0809/0809CLEP.HTM
The defensive comparisons aren’t close, to be honest.
LBJ > Flash, defensively.
Welcome to 3QC, btw!
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough - I stand corrected. I still think what I’ve seen of Wade has pointed to a player who doesn’t know how to get his teammates better shots, but he’s not as bad as Kobe in that respect. I wasn’t saying he doesn’t pass -- I was saying he frequently passes to the wrong guy. And I’m not sure if that can be quantified, and to be honest, I haven’t seen enough of Wade to make any kind of definitive statement on that. Maybe I’ve just seen him in 4-5 bad games. So I’ll withdraw that comment.
But to be honest, I think of Wade as a point guard. I know he’s nominally a SG — but Tim Duncan is nominally a PF, and you can’t tell me he isn’t a center in practice. Wade’s played the point in the past, he runs the offense, and as often as not, he’s guarding and/or guarded by the opposing PG. Granted, James is also the primary ballhandler for his team… I don’t know why I’m contradicting myself on this.
But I will point out that a lot of James’ teammates are overachieving a bit on offense. I don’t think there’s a single Heat player other than Wade whose offensive output is surprisingly good in light of his ability. Then again, a lot of my suspicion of Wade had to do with Shawn Marion’s subpar scoring performance… well, he’s not doing any better with Toronto, so this may actually be a credit to Steve Nash and/or Mike D’Antoni rather than a problem for Wade.
by 3.3seconds on Mar 25, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marion's subpar performance stems from the fact he's been playing SF.
During his years in Phoenix, the reason why The Matrix was so ill was due to the fact D’Antoni maximized his abilities by playing him at PF. Marion was more effective at power forward because of the mismatches be brought to the table, etc.
Kevin Pelton goes more in-depth with the issue here ..
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=512
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 25, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dwight will win DPOY.
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this even a question? I haven’t heard anyone suggest anyone other than Dwight for the award since the beginning of the season.
by 3.3seconds on Mar 24, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kevin Garnett has been the other player that has garnered attention.
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
trash talk doesn’t count as “defense”
by GuapoDCole on Mar 25, 2009 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear the word "intangibles" used a lot with respect to Garnett's defense.
Leadership, communication, etc.
by Ben Q Rock on Mar 25, 2009 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nah… Garnett’s a great defender any way you look at it. I think it’s hard to argue he’s had as much effect as Dwight, though, simply because he hasn’t been asked to do as much. Still, definitely a first-team all defensive PF.
Trying to figure out what THAt team should look like… Howard, garnett, and LBJ seem like locks for the first three. Any idea re: guards?
by 3.3seconds on Mar 25, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good question. I can look to see who would be on the All-Defensive First Team.
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 25, 2009 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice points gentlemen
Well thought out analysis on Dwight’s behalf. Although I tend to think the MVP voting trends toward media darlings, I think they’ll get it correct this year w/ LeBron.
by bagofballs on Mar 24, 2009 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks.
The media will get the MVP voting right this year, simply because LeBron “fits” the various pre-requisites (best player on the best team in the league, for example) that have been established over the years. Their rationale won’t necessarily be correct, but their choice will be correct ..
This is my end and my new beginning Nostalgia/Alpha and Omega places, it's like a glitch in the matrix/I seen it at all, did it all, most of y'all been pop for a minute/Spitters, sinners and the game get rid of y'all/Y'all got there but y'all didn't get it all, I want my style back/Hate to cease y'all plan it's the rap repo-man - Nas
by erivera7 on Mar 24, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

















