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A Look Into The Orlando Magic's Draft History

It's no secret that 'good draft picks' and 'the Orlando Magic' rarely appear in the same sentence together. For instance, you would never hear or read the following:

 

"You know, the Orlando Magic have made some good draft picks these past couple of years."

 

If you do hear or the read the following, it's usually said or written in jest. 

 

In the 20 year history of the franchise, when it comes to the Magic & drafting, you can be assured of three things as a fan. First, if Orlando lands the top pick in the NBA Draft, the franchise NEVER misses on a player. Ever. Shaq. Webber. Penny. Dwight. Enough said. 

 

Second, if the team lands a pick outside of the top ten, chances are the team is going to miss on a player, and miss BADLY. Jerryl Sasser. Curtis Borchardt. Reece Gaines. Fran Vazquez. Enough said.

 

Third, if the team lands a pick outside of the top ten and manages to accidentally make a good pick, chances are the team is going to trade the player almost immediately. Keon Clark. Matt Harpring. Corey Maggette (technically not drafted by the Magic, but acquired on draft day). Zaza Pachulia. Anderson Varejao. Enough said.

 

It's amazing how bad Orlando drafts. It's downright comical actually. Where am I going with all of this? 

 

Recently, Roland Beech of 82games.com (an excellent NBA advanced stats site, I recommend it) took the time to research, historically, the drafting history of every team in the NBA for the past 20 years. Given that the Magic have coincidentally been in existence for exactly that many years, this data provides an excellent look into how the team has fared drafting-wise historically. 

 

Essentially, Beech wanted to figure out which franchise has had the most success drafting, by using a rather simplistic statistical rating system to determine how good a team's drafted player is/was. Additionally, to calculate the value of a successful pick, Beech compared a player's career stats to the average stats for his draft number. 

 

So with all that said, how did the Magic fair in the analysis?

 

Click after the jump to see the results.

 

Star-divide

Picture_1_medium 

As you can see from the picture above, Orlando places 20th among 32 teams listed (Grizzlies & Hornets are listed twice, FYI). Looks about right. If you notice on the far right-hand side of the graphic, the Magic have had 6 "Star" players, 4 "Solid" players, 5 "Role Players", 14 "Deep Bench" players, 8 "Complete Bust" players, and 4 "DNP" players. It's safe to say that the team has wasted a pick, or two, or twenty-six. 

 

Who are the six "Star" players, you ask? Nick Anderson, Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway, Mike Miller, Dwight Howard, and Jameer Nelson. Don't take the word "Star" literally. All the word represents, essentially, is a successful pick in correlation to where the player was selected in a respective draft. The four "Solid" players are Dennis Scott, Bison Dele (R.I.P.), Matt Harpring, and Keon Clark. 

 

Taking a quick look at the players listed above, you can begin to understand how the Orlando Magic evolved into a Title contender during the mid-90's. The core of the team (Anderson, Hardaway, O'Neal, Scott) was the built through the draft and helped to establish the foundation for the Magic. A key free-agent signing (Horace Grant) helped take the squad to the next level and in total, Orlando was able to experience a period of success for a number of years. 

 

Likewise, poor drafting in the late-90's and early-00's helped contribute to Orlando's period of mediocrity and eventual demise during those time frames. With players aging (Anderson, Scott) and defecting (Hardaway, O'Neal), the Magic did a poor job of reloading through the draft. The team held eight first-round picks between 1998-2001 and only two of the choices (Harpring, Miller) panned out. To complicate matters, several baffling personnel moves further hampered the team's ability to "relaunch". For example, in the 2000 draft, Orlando sent its tenth overall pick (Keyon Dooling), as well as Corey Maggette, Derek Strong, and cash for a future first-round pick. I could go on but I digress. 

 

However, shrewd roster maneuvering by the Magic (55 transactions involving 51 players in a 15 month time-span), which culminated in the free agent signings of Grant Hill & Tracy McGrady, helped to bring the team back to prominence a bit but unfortunately, injuries (Hill), poor trading (i.e. Cuttino Mobley for Doug Christie, anyone?) and more terrible drafting doomed Orlando from being able to sustain any type of long-term success. 

 

Only now have the Magic been able to firmly reclaim a seat at the adults table and be considered an elite team again. The team copied the blueprint of the Orlando squads from yesteryear and built the roster through good drafting and savvy free-agent signings, sans Lewis' contract amount, etc. The core of the team is evident (Howard, Lewis, Nelson, Turkoglu) and the role players have been defined as well (Lee, Pietrus, and others). It's safe to say that the Magic appear poised to repeat the accomplishments that defined the Shaq & Penny era. 

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Cool post...

…And I agree completely with your and Beech’s analysis. I note that Fran Vasquez is rated as the 7th worst value draft pick (a bit worse than Kwame Brown).

I assume CLee is included in this analysis and rated as a Role Player? If so, I suspect he’ll reach “Solid” status shortly…

by gift of the magi on Feb 21, 2009 5:54 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks, glad you enjoyed my post.

Yeah, Vasquez is rated as the 7th worst value draft pick .. goes to show you how big of a gaffe that choice was. I’ve said this before and it’s worth repeating. That’s only roster transaction GM Otis Smith did NOT make on his gut. He’s admitted that many times, so it’s good pointing out. I’m 99% sure that Smith probably would have (and should have) selected Danny Granger, for a myriad of reasons. Imagine that.

Yes. C. Lee is a role player, currently, under Beech’s system. And you’re correct in assuming he’ll probably reach solid status soon, maybe beginning next season. The rook is definitely going to be a key cog to the Orlando Magic for years to come.

Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Feb 21, 2009 6:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow, great post

This is great stuff, kinda. When put in writing, the Magic have been worst than I thought. But its a great analysis of how important the draft is. When they draft well, they seem to be a good team. When they draft poorly, then it really sets them back a few years. This goes for most teams tho.

But Milwaukee has had the most success in the draft? What?

by L Magico on Feb 21, 2009 11:01 PM EST reply actions  

Beech on the Bucks
I was surpised by how this look came out…Milwaukee as the best drafting team of the past twenty years? In looking over the actual picks though it makes more sense: six “stars” taken — Glenn Robinson, #1 in ’94 and a 29 rating… Ray Allen at #5 in ’96, also 29 rating… Redd at #43(!) who has a 27 rating… Vin Baker at #8 in ’93 who had a 24 rating (yes he had good years before the problems)… Bogut #1 in ’05 and a 23 rating… T.J. Ford at #8 in ’03 with a 22 rating. Now Bogut is actually an under-achiever to this point (especially since they could have had Paul, etc) but the Bucks also have scored with lots of other second round picks besides Redd like Sessions, Alston, Phills, Snow, Flip Murray, Bogans…all of whom way surpassed expectations for their lowly pick number.

Good value with their lottery picks, and some great value in the second round. I mean, Sessions and Redd are starting-quality players, and the Bucks got them laaaaaate in the draft. Sessions was the 55th or 56th pick, if I’m not mistaken. Ramon Sessions!

by Ben Q Rock on Feb 22, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks!

.. and yeah, Milwaukee being labeled the best drafting team in the past 20 years surprised me a bit, but once I read the explanation that Ben highlighted above, it made sense.

What’s probably more surprising is that the Bucks haven’t been able to maintain any period of success, despite the fact that the team has made excellent draft picks for years now. There’s a number of reasons for that but I’ll save the rant.

Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Feb 22, 2009 4:18 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm surprised San Antonio or Utah isn't #1

They were the teams that always seemed to maximize the potential of their lower round picks over the years.

by funny80sguy on Feb 21, 2009 11:18 PM EST reply actions  

The Spurs were #4. The Jazz were #10.

With San Antonio, no secret the team has been the blueprint of success in the NBA for the past 10 years. The team drafted its core (Duncan, Ginobili, Parker) and reaped the benefits.

It goes to show you that good drafting is the key to building a championship-caliber roster.

Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Feb 22, 2009 4:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Obtaining Rashard was one of our best recent personnel moves ...

 … the manner in which we obtained him is one of our darkest times.

The drafting of Howard (over Okafor, the consensus top pick at the time) and Nelson was inspired, especially since, in a few higher profile draft workouts, Sebastian Telfair was considered to have outplayed Nelson. We could have easily landed Telfair instead. Unfortunately, none of us could say how it would have worked out since the Blazers and Magic are totally different entities.

Courtney has been nothing short of superb already this season. He’s starting to hit a bit of a rookie wall so we should maybe look at resting him a little in certain games as I think Richardson would be able to take small minutes (10-15 or so) and be productive enough to warrant it) but Lee is certainly one of the few hits of recent times.

The less said of Fran over Granger, Maxiell, Lee, Bass and Diener over Monta Ellis, Andrey Blatche, Ryan Gomes and Jose Calderon (undrafted!) the better. Just saying all of those players would have helped our franchise in some way, shape or form, whether on court or in a trade.

by big aaron on Feb 22, 2009 8:42 AM EST reply actions  

It's worth pointing out that ..

.. the decision to pick Howard over Okafor wasn’t that hard of a choice for the Magic front office. It wasn’t even a contest, Orlando was definitely picking Howard.

As for Jameer, allegedly GM Otis Smith has said that the Magic front office had him in their top five. Picking someone like Sebastian wasn’t really considered, once Nelson kept falling.

As for all the names you listed that the team could have had, it’s just crazy that despite all that .. Orlando is still an elite team. Just replace Vazquez with Granger, and it’s over. But one can only dream.

Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Feb 22, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Replace Fran with Granger

And we get probably no Rashard. It’s really a completely different path for this team, and what-ifs are fun!

by big aaron on Feb 23, 2009 3:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, that's true. Having Granger may have meant no Rashard ..

.. though I think Orlando could have still gotten Lewis if they had offered him the 5 year/$75 Mill. contract they should have offered him.

Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Feb 23, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

Well, no Rashard — mostly because we don’t need him — though then again, I recall there being some question at that point as to whether Hedo was a starter or a sixth man. But if we don’t get Rashard, we probably get SOMEBODY instead. Of course, that somebody might have been a point guard — probably a PF, but maybe a PG.

But I’m happy with what we have.

(Side note: Diener’s a perfectly good backup PG. Obviously not the equal of Ellis or Calderon, but I’d take him over Blatche. Of course, I have an inexplicably violent dislike for Blatche.)

by 3.3seconds on Feb 23, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm happy too. It's fun, as big aaron said, to talk about what if's.

I like Blatche, but maybe it’s because I have an affinity for athletic freaks. He has so much potential .. it’s frustrating to see him not live up to it all. Shoot, put him on the Magic, have head coach Stan Van Gundy nurture his talents, and I’m certain he’d become a monster.

Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website

by erivera7 on Feb 23, 2009 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

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