Who Should Start At Point Guard?
by erivera7 on Feb 13, 2009 12:00 PM EST
in Analysis
Email
PrintThe All-Star break is upon us, and for the Orlando Magic, it couldn't come at a better time. Just a few weeks ago, the main question concerning the team was - can Orlando win an NBA Title? One torn right labrum later, and that inquiry has evolved into - can Orlando win a playoff series?
How funny is it that a player once deemed replaceable (Jameer Nelson) is now deemed irreplaceable? That's the nature of the NBA, where stars are born due to the strangest of circumstances (Paul Millsap and Utah, for example).
With Nelson out, it was to be expected that the Magic would take a hit offensively, given the limitations Anthony Johnson and Tyronn Lue present at point guard. However, it's been disturbing to watch an offense go from "finely tuned" to "sputtering disaster" over night. If Orlando fans have anything to fear, it's that the Denver Nuggets have come up with a blueprint for future opponents on how to defeat the Magic in the team's current state.
Double and triple Dwight Howard, rotate defensively, and challenge the shooters. It's that easy.
With either Johnson or Lue at the helm at point, neither player has the offensive skill-set to keep defenses honest. Neither penetrates and creates havoc in the lane. Neither kills you with pin-point shooting. They're both the antithesis of Nelson.
You may be asking, is there anyone that can step in as the floor general for Orlando and keep the ball rolling as best as possible? Yes, there is someone that can fill that role and his name is ...
Courtney Lee.
If you think that Lee can't step in as the starting point guard for the Magic, think again. My colleague, Ben, noted a week ago that he found it curious that Orlando head coach Stan Van Gundy continued to place Lee as the primary back-up point guard to Anthony Johnson, even after Tyronn Lue had already been acquired via trade from the Milwaukee Bucks. What gives, right? Well, it dawned on me after I spoke with David Thorpe last week, I may have an idea what Van Gundy is doing.
Look. Van Gundy is a smart guy. After watching him lead the Miami Heat to the Eastern Con ference Semifinals in 2004 with a promising rookie (Dwyane Wade), a troubled youngster (Lamar Odom), and an aging veteran (Eddie Jones), I've never again questioned Van Gundy's ability to coach a basketball team to its fullest potential. The man can flat out coach and I think he's going to prove that, yet again, in the second half of this regular season.
Lee could start at point guard very soon, maybe immediately after the Magic reconvene to begin its stretch run. It's obvious that Van Gundy was giving Johnson a chance to see what he could do as a starter again. Johnson succeeded previously when Nelson was out earlier in the year (went 4-1 filling in for him), so it's justifiable that Van Gundy goes back to him this time around. However, those four wins were fool's gold, as they were against teams that played no defense (Washington, Indiana) or teams that struggled at the time (Minnesota, Philadelphia). It's no surprise, now, that the cat is out of the bag in Johnson's case. As for Lee, it's clear that Van Gundy wanted to prepare the rookie a bit with some part-time burn at point guard before possibly upgrading the rookie to full-time duty.
Here's a quick advanced statistical metric to chew on:
Minutes ON Court: 944
Minutes OFF Court: 1460
Anthony Johnson's Net Points per 100 Possessions: -10.5
Now compare that number to ...
Minutes ON Court: 999
Minutes OFF Court: 1405
Courtney Lee's Net Points per 100 Possessions: +2.5
As you can see, the Magic have a net loss when Johnson is on the court but a net gain when Lee is on the court. Both individuals have played nearly an identical amount of minutes, so the above statistics aren't skewed by any means.
It's fairly obvious that Lee deserves to start at point guard. At this point, what does Orlando have to lose? Lee may not change the team's seemingly inevitable second round exit in the Playoffs, but he'll certainly help the Magic have a fighter's chance against either Boston or Cleveland, assuming each team wins their respective first round series. You can't say the same thing about either Johnson or Lue .
Lee isn't Nelson by any means, either, but given the type of skills he brings to the table, the rookie is pretty darn close. Just ask Thorpe, who's worked with him personally this past off-season.
"I know the guy that I saw on the court all summer is someone that can beat people off the dribble, shoot the three, mid-range game is strong, transition game is strong, his handle is very tight, he's a very, very good ball-handler, a very good slasher."
Sounds a lot like Nelson, doesn't it?
With Lee at the helm at point, he has the offensive skill-set to keep defenses honest. He penetrates and creates havoc in the lane. He kills you with pin-point shooting. He's the antithesis of both Johnson and Lue.
More importantly, Courtney Lee maybe the answer at point guard.
20 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I knew this was going to be about Lee…
I agree that Lee’s better than Lue or AJ. Hopefully Stan’s on board with you again.
SVG & Otis both rely wayyyy to much on playing the experience card.
I’d be very shocked if we see C.Lee start a game this year at PG. Does it make the most sense? Yes. Do we have a good chance of actually seeing SVG pull the trigger? In my opinion, no we do not.
Sports Picks 365
"Shoot first, ask questions last" Jameer Nelson
by DieSlowKeyshawn on Feb 13, 2009 2:50 PM EST reply actions
I disagree with your assessment about SVG relying on the experience card.
Case in point .. Stan playing Marcin Gortat in the POs last year despite the kid barely playing at all during the regular season. He could have easily gone to Adonal Foyle who trumped Gortat in experience, but he didn’t. So I don’t really buy that argument ..
.. Van Gundy hasn’t been shy about playing Courtney critical minutes at the end of games. A perfect example of that recently was at Indiana, when Lee played with the starters at crunch time. Add the fact that Stan continued to let the rookie back-up A.J. even after the Lue trade .. those instances, to me, spoke volumes because it told me that SVG is ready to commit to Lee at PG soon.
And it isn’t even like Lee is some raw rookie who came out of high school or only had one year of college under his belt. He’s 23 .. he’s played four years of college ball .. the kid is more ready than most rookies are. Clearly Stan realizes that, which is why he hasn’t been afraid to grant Courtney more and more responsibility as the season progresses.
All in all, I expect Lee to start soon at point guard. I’d be more shocked if SVG continued to play either Anthony Johnson or Tyronn Lue at the point for the remainder of the season.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
You can say Lee has the skill set to play point guard. I’m not sure I totally disagree with that — though I would point out that there is not a single successful point guard in the league taller than 6’4", and I can’t think of the last time there was. (Well, unless you consider pre-injury Shaun Livingston “successful”.)
But that’s not what is important. What is important is, Lee doesn’t think like a point guard. He thinks like a shooting guard. Which is why he’s averaged a little over one assist per game this season, in 22 minutes. Rashard Lewis has more assists per minute than Lee. And asking him to play point guard at this point would most likely confuse him, and might damage his long-term development.
Listen. You’re all freaking out because the Magic scored 73 points — in one game — against a really good Denver team. Just look at the stats. Yeah, we had one bad offensive game. And before that, we scored over 100 points in three games in a row. So let’s wait for the offense to break before you start playing the “the offense is broken” card, okay? Because what I see here isn’t a desperate problem which calls for playing a rookie out-of-position; what I see here is a fluke and a bunch of panicking.
I disagree. I'm not overreacting to the situation at hand.
I’m being a realist and pointing out a possible solution to the problem at point guard.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
…if there is a “problem at point guard”. Which hasn’t been proven, except insofar as we don’t have Nelson.
In all fairness, I believe playing a guy at point guard who is too tall for the position, has never really played it (yes, I know he did some sort of vaguely PG-like thing in college for a few minutes, I’m just not counting that), and is currently averaging one assist every 20 minutes would qualify as a “problem at point guard”. So if that happens, feel free to worry.
If you don't think there's a problem at point guard with Johnson and Lue at the helm.
Te salud.
You may think that Orlando’s offense has been fine because the team has been able to score 125 vs. Los Angeles, 102 vs. Indiana, and 101 vs. New Jersey. But do you know what all those teams have in common? They don’t play defense.
Denver, statistically, is a slightly above-average team defensively and they were able to limit the Magic to a mere 73 points. Is that an aberration too? Sure, but it’s a red flag because as I already pointed out in my post, the Nuggets have provided the blueprint on how to stop Orlando and every team the Magic face from now on is going to implement that defensive strategy.
Even on a normal night, Orlando is an average team offensively. That’s just a fact, given what you remove (Nelson) and what you replace (Johnson).
Add to the fact that Anthony Johnson is, literally, a black hole when he’s on the court and voila, you have a problem at point guard. This is nothing new. A.J. has been vilified ever since the beginning of the season because of a simple reason .. he’s terrible. There’s no denying that.
I’m going to say this again because it’s worth repeating. Since when did point guard have a height requirement? With your logic, you’re eliminating past floor generals like Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson, etc. I’ll toss in Jason Kidd (he’s 6’4’’), just for the sake of argument. Every player is different. You can’t play everything by the book .. if you did, then Rashard Lewis wouldn’t be playing power forward right now. I just don’t buy that argument at all.
You don’t even know what Lee can do playing full-time at point guard. You can’t eliminate the possibility on a whim. To toss out the fact he’s played minutes at PG during college is foolish. Add to the fact that I’ve spoken with David Thorpe personally and he’s a guy that has worked with Lee this past summer, preparing him for the Draft. Thorpe has stated Courtney is capable of playing the point. The little “scouting report” provided above supports that notion.
Dismissing Lee due to “low assist totals” is wrong. This is his first season in the NBA. You’re making a concrete statement on a small sample size. Play the kid full-time at point, then see what happens. Again, what does Orlando have to lose? Nothing. If Courtney proves incapable of running the show, then sure, look for another solution. But I think Lee deserves a chance.
If you don’t think Lee can play the point, you’re subject to your opinion. I think he can.
Agree to disagree, I suppose.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Well, I don’t necessarily believe it would hurt to try. I DO, however, believe it would hurt to continue trying if it doesn’t work out. Lee’s future in this league is not as a point guard, and any habits he develops playing the point this year will become bad habits as soon as he switches back to his natural position. The most important thing here is not 2008-09 win totals. It’s the long-term viability of this team. And if we gain a couple wins this year by playing Lee at the 1, but then Lee doesn’t develop into the player he’s capable of being, I don’t consider that a fair trade.
As for the height thing, if it’s possible for a player 6’5" or taller to succeed at point guard in the modern NBA, why has it not happened to a single player in the past 15 years? And why are the only two 6’4" players who have achieved any measure of success in that time — Kidd and Payton — both the kind of unequivocal star athletes who WOULD be capable of overriding a strong general tendency throughout the league? (I could be forgetting someone here.) I’ll acknowledge that a tall point guard “could” be successful, as soon as you’ll acknowledge that every single one of the tall point guards of the last decade and a half, you know, “haven’t”.
As for Lee, I’m making a statement based on a somewhat small sample size — half a season. But that sample size is the best predictor of what he’s likely to do the second half of the same season. Is it possible that Lee will become a more prolific passer in the future? Yeah, sure, maybe. He probably will. But that’s “future” as in future seasons, not “future” as in next week. At this point, the statistics — which you can call a small sample size, but it’s a larger sample size than the remainder of the season is — suggest that Lee is about as good at getting assists as JJ Redick is.
As for Johnson, he’s been a terrible shooter this year. He’s also been an unspectacular but competent passer (at least for a backup point guard), and a mediocre defender. Personally, I value passing above both of the other two put together — and I also wouldn’t discount the possibility that the guy could relocate his shot. He’s never shot below 40% before, and it’s really strange that it would suddenly happen as soon as he got traded to a really good team. And if he could keep averaging an assist every 7-8 minutes or so, and bring his shooting percentage back up to let’s say 42%… well, he wouldn’t be ideal, but at that point, you’d be approaching something resembling 2007-08 Nelson.
I mean, either way, Hedo is essentially the point guard from here on in — in the sense that he’s the guy who has the ball at the top of the key and distributes it. So if you want Lee to play the Ron Harper on the Bulls role — the guy who defends/is defended by the opposing point guard, but doesn’t actually run the offense — he might be able to manage that. (Keeping in mind that Harper is as close as we’ve seen to a “tall point guard” in the last 15 years.) I’m not sure. I suppose we may find out.
All Lee needs to do is hold the fort down at point guard for half the season.
Nothing more. I’m certain he can do a better job of that than either Johnson or Lue.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Well, I hope your right. And hey, if this screws up Lee’s instincts and he struggles to return to his natural position, at least we still have Pietrus, right?
Hah. Something like that.
Or maybe the Magic can lure Darrell Armstrong out of retirement.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
I think the height thing is usually a question of fit – you get to a certain height and people move you inside to dominate.
But look at LeBron, he played point for the Cavs in his first season. Lee’s no LeBron but he doesn’t have to be, he just has to be better than No-Neck and Lue.
As for Courtney’s assists, I suspect it’s largely because of the role we’ve had him in. He hasn’t been asked to playmake because Nelson or Hedo were doing that, but now we may have to ask him to try that a little. And the assists per game stat is marginally flawed, especially in comparison to Lewis, because Rashard plays around twice as many minutes.
by eltharion_doa on Feb 14, 2009 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
Funny you mention LeBron.
If he really wanted to, LBJ could easily play point guard. There’s been some rumors going around that one of the “tools” D’Antoni/New York will use if/when James opts out in 2010 .. is that they’ll throw the idea out of there of LeBron playing point.
Imagine that. ‘Bron as a point guard in D’Antoni’s offense. I shudder just thinking about the possible results of that idea.
As for Lee, you’re correct in stating that Lee’s assists totals, up to this point, are skewed given the role he’s been assigned. If you put Courtney is a role to be a facilitator, then surely the number of dimes he gets will increase.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Against Denver...
Johnson and Lue combined for ONE assist between them the whole game, which is basically inexcusable for a team’s PGs; Johnson is only averaging 2.3 assists per game the last three games.
Courtney Lee had three assists by himself against Denver.
I’m in total agreement with erivera about Lee starting at the point, for all the reasons he stated.
by Mike from Illinois on Feb 13, 2009 6:55 PM EST reply actions
Solutions....
…do not fit neatly into a box. I say PG by committee is the best solution.
I don’t care who starts between AJ and Lue but would start one of them…
Lee comes into play if matchups are favorable to his running the point.
Hedo usually will become the defacto PG in the 4th quarter of close games, Lee becomes the defensive PG ion those situations.
AJ and Lue’s role becomes a minutes/matchup thing. Regardless of who plays the team has to get 20-25 minutes outta at least one of them (or both) on a nightly basis.
Do no harm!!
See, that what puzzles me.
.. the continued insistence of having Anthony Johnson start at point, even after I just showed that his net plus/minus is -10.5. That makes no sense, whatsoever.
Former Senior Writer for DePaul's Scout.com website
Even if Lee doesn’t start at point, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Lue take over the job if he can settle into the style of play and get sufficient fitness.
by eltharion_doa on Feb 14, 2009 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Orlando Pinstriped Post
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
