Orlando Magic News for December 7th: Big-Time Recognition, Big-Time Upsets, and More
by Evan Dunlap on Dec 7, 2009 8:58 PM EST
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Print- Orlando Magic just keeps winning
The Orlando Magic relish their underdog status--whether or not any team coming off an NBA Finals appearance can possibly consider itself an underdog is up for debate--and tend to not get as much respect as Boston, Cleveland, or the L.A. Lakers; I refer you to the third bullet in this post for Eddy's refresher. So when Mark Heisler of the Los Angeles Times headlines his weekly NBA column with a positive spin on the Magic, it's news.
Little noted among their "controversies," they have something special beneath [Stan] Van Gundy's lapses in nurturing: the best inside-outside game since Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.
[Dwight] Howard is the game's hardest matchup, so quick at 6-11, 260 that he often puts the other center on the bench with two fouls in three possessions.
There's no Kobe, but the Lakers never had seven players making 34% of their threes, with four over 40% ([Jameer] Nelson, Jason Williams, Mickael Pietrus, J.J. Redick).
There's plenty more to enjoy at the link.
- The 25 Biggest Playoff Series Upsets, 1991-2009
Neil Paine of Basketball-Reference attempts to calculate the most surprising playoff upsets since 1991, using a combination of Statistical Plus-Minus and Simple Rating. The data show that the Magic should have been heavily favored--the stats gave 'em a 77.5% chance of winning!--in the 2008 Eastern Conference Semifinals against Detroit, yet the Pistons took the series in five games. Happier news to Magic fans is where their upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals ranks.
- Throwing cash into the stands
Matt Barnes' recent $20,000 fine for throwing the game ball into the Amway Arena seats after the Magic's 99-98 loss to the Miami Heat two weeks ago prompted Van Gundy to wonder if Barnes would have been better off tossing money instead. Ian Ayres of The New York Times examines the possibility in greater detail.
Actually throwing money into the stands might cause a riot. But you could imagine a team keeping some cash on hand at courtside to let players, who were about to commit a finable offense, bypass the NBA middleman and give the fine directly to some designated recipient. Instead of throwing a ball into the stands, Barnes could have ceremonially and publicly deposited cash into a courtside forfeiture drawer — with the money going to charity or to rebate part of the ticket prices.
Hat tip: TrueHoop
- Most Improved NBA Player by Division
Jack Jensen of Dime Magazine names Williams the most improved player in the entire Southeast Division; Miami's Michael Beasley is the runner-up.
Jason Williams, Orlando Magic.
The Southeast division was the toughest for me to decide on—post below if you have a case for a guy—and Williams popped into my mind. Not because he has made the most improvement from his last season in the League, but because he has been just as surprising a find as anyone in the NBA this year. If only the NBA still had a Comeback POY award, White Chocolate would have to be near the top of the list. Williams is the Birdman of last year (Minus the two-year drug ban), after choosing to sit and utilize his League Pass subscription instead of playing during the 2008-09 season.
I don't believe any serious Most Improved Player discussion can omit Atlanta forward Josh Smith, who's a virtual lock for the All-Star game if he continues to play this well. Nonetheless, it's nice to see Williams get recognized for what's been a pleasantly surprising season.
- Denton: Nelson Still the Starter
UPDATE: In news that should surprise no one, Van Gundy said Monday that Nelson will start at point guard once he's able to return from the knee injury that's sidelined him for the last three weeks. Williams will re-assume his backup role, and Anthony Johnson will play mop-up minutes.
Notes on two former Magic players after the jump.
Tom Haberstroh of HoopData looks at O'Neal's effect on the Cavaliers' defense.
Shaq spends more time on the bench in Cleveland so his effect on the team’s numbers should be muffled somewhat. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers have allowed about two fewer shots around the basket per game this season and their opponent field goal percentage in this zone has dipped from .577 to a league-low .550. Shaq may not offer much on the offensive end anymore but he still does a great impression of a wall.
Kelly Dwyer says Courtney Lee might not be as great as some people make him out to be.
Also, I don't want to pick on the guy, but games like these are why people have to slow down regarding Courtney Lee. He played almost 40 minutes, and had his chances, but scored just four points while taking only five shots. Four turnovers, three assists, and five rebounds. The guy had a 10.7 PER last year at age 23, and was 24 entering this season. He's old, for a second year player, and hardly setting the world on fire (yes, I'm aware of the injuries).
This isn't to say he won't be a good rotation player and sometimes starter provided the situation is right, but this isn't the future borderline All-Star some TV guys would have you believe.
In the interest of equal time, here's Sebastian Pruiti's argument from last week that Lee has improved since last season, despite poor shooting percentages at the start of this season.
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Is Josh Smith really a Most Improved candidate?
I feel like he’s not doing anything he hasn’t done before. I mean, his percentages are up, but his stats aren’t any better than they have been over the last three years. I feel like people don’t know him because a) he had a bad season last year, and b) he plays for the Hawks.
Bo Outlaw's name is Charles. Chucky Atkins' isn't.
He really is. His numbers are thru the roof. He used to be terribly inefficient, throwing up 3’s with bad %‘s. He’s like a inside type player only now, rebounding very good, comfortably leading league in blocks.
Yeah, but...
2006-07: 16.4 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.9 BPG, 1.4 SPG
2007-08: 17.2 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.8 BPG, 1.5 SPG
2009-10: 15.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2.6 BPG, 1.5 SPG
And yeah, his shooting percentage is up, and his turnovers are down. But it seems to me MIP is an award for a guy who came out of nowhere to raise his game to a point nobody expected from him. Not for a guy who’s making fewer dumb mistakes but otherwise doing just about exactly what he’s done for the last three seasons. I mean, I can’t remember how many times I’ve heard “Josh Smith would be really good if he just played smarter.” This is a step everyone was expecting, and it’s not THAT big a step after all.
(Anyway, his free throw shooting is still a liability… it’s one thing when Dwight Howard shoots 58% from the line, but when a 6’9" PF who’s a borderline SF does it, that’s embarrassing.)
Bo Outlaw's name is Charles. Chucky Atkins' isn't.
Or to put it differently...
…he’s an improved player, but not the MOST improved player, because he only improved at a few things, and those things are things he could’ve done before if he had been smarter.
(I mean, if Chris Paul keeps up his current percentages, is he a MIP candidate? Okay, if he keeps shooting 62.5% for three, he’s SOME kind of candidate, but you know.)
Bo Outlaw's name is Charles. Chucky Atkins' isn't.
Yea I see your point. You changed my mind haha.
by derekk on Dec 7, 2009 10:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I have no opinion on him but
I will say that “those things are things he could’ve done before if he had been smarter” is kind of the point of most improved, or at least a major facet.
Can't look at per-game numbers, they don't tell the story. At all.
That’s such an outdated way of analyzing players.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
He's certainly up there.
Based solely on the fact that he stopped chucking up 3’s. That’s made the entire team better, him making that (seemingly) simple adjustment. He killed possessions last year for them, despite all the talent people could clearly see. His mental approach has obviously been cleared up (either on his own or with the help of someone else) which has allowed for himself to be much more efficient and therefore the entire team to be more efficient.
Josh Smith’s adjustments and the addition of Jamal Crawford are the two big things that have allowed the Hawks to at least enter the conversation on making the East’s Big Three a Big Four.
Matured
that’s the word everyone is looking for. Doing more of what he needs to do instead of what he wants to do.
Seriously...
I basically believe everyone should shoot more threes, but I’ll make an exception for Smith. I mean, think about it, man, you can barely even shoot free throws.
It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...
Matured and like I said below, the main thing is that Josh is more efficient on offense.
When it comes to his block percentage or rebound percentage, there hasn’t been a distinct difference in those stats compared to what Smith has produced in the past (his assist percentage is the best it’s been, though). However, the fact that Josh has sworn off threes is what’s driving his TS% (55.0%), eFG% (53.1%), and Offensive Rating (112) up a bit. That, in turn, is what’s driving his PER (23.9) up a bit too. To compare, Dirk Nowitzki’s PER (25.3) isn’t that far off. Smith’s per-game numbers won’t tell the story but he deserves to be a candidate for Most Improved Player. Josh has taken his game to another level.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Yeah, he's cut down on his turnovers...
Which I guess is the same kind of decision-making that has resulted in him laying off the threes.
So, how’s his defense? I mean, obviously he puts up the blocks/steals. But is he a guy who puts up the stats because he gambles a lot? I have to admit I haven’t seen him much (because he plays for the Hawks), and I’m trying to get a handle on who he is… a Gerald Wallace type? Kirilenko 2003-06? Statistically, he looks a lot like Kirilenko when Kirilenko was good. And does he play some SF for them? Because if he’s just a PF, that’s not impressive rebounding…
It's a good thing Larry Bird's initials weren't MJ. '80s basketball was confusing enough -- Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Marles Jarkley, Mominique Jilkins... Makeem Jolajuwon...
I wouldn't say Smith is a good defender but he makes up for this with his athleticism.
Bret Lagree of Hoopinion has a great take on Josh, in terms of his defensive ability. As for Smith’s position, he plays power forward. That’s his designated position on the court.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Yeah it seems Smith has improved in the intangibles, in his decision making (see how many three point attempts has this season) and overall awareness of the game, things that don’t always show up in the stats.
The main thing is that Josh is more efficient on offense.
That’s been the difference in Smith’s game.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Did anyone watch the new Dante&Galante show yet?
They asked two fans (presumably a couple, both wearing matching Dwight Howard jerseys) which two current Magic players were NCAA Players of the Year. They answered Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis, neither of whom even went to college! WOW! lol
The next question was which current Magic player was a band member in high school and played the sax. They answered Jameer Nelson. /facepalm
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
In case anyone missed it...
http://www.nba.com/magic/Overtime_With_Dante_and_Galant-290355-2031.html
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
SMH, it's worse on video.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
That's embarrassing.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
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