Breaking Down the Orlando Magic with Synergy Sports
Ed. note: Fixed an error in the 'Isolation' table, as of 1:03 p.m. EST.
A little less than a month ago, I looked at the statistics for the Orlando Magic after the first 10 games in the regular season. The purpose of the write-up was to take a quick look at how some of the players on the Magic had performed at that point. I figured, now, it would be a good moment to examine the numbers for Orlando with 20 games elapsed this year. This time, I'll be looking at stats from Synergy Sports Technology. Specifically, data that is used by NBA teams.
For instance, sifting through Synergy will give you a nugget like this: the Magic rate "Excellent" in offense from the category of 'After Time Outs' (1.02 points per possession) with a percentile-based rank of 91% - statistics compared to the rest of the league, to be specific. So in this case, the numbers support the notion that head coach Stan Van Gundy does an excellent job of drawing up plays that convert into scores after timeouts.
Other nuggets of information are that Ryan Anderson does an excellent job of scoring off of offensive rebounds or that Brandon Bass is the only player on the roster, so far, who does better than average at defending post-ups.
Spot-Ups, Pick & Rolls, and Post-Ups
Excluding 'Transition' offense, the majority of the offensive plays for the Magic come from the categories of 'Spot-Up' (25%), 'Pick & Roll Ball Handler' (16%), and 'Post-Up' (15%). Orlando rates "Excellent" in 'Spot-Up' (1.06 points per possession) with a rank of 86%, "Very Good" in 'Pick & Roll Ball Handler' (0.90 points per possession) with a rank of 78%, and "Average" in 'Post-Up' (0.85 points per possession) with a rank of 46% - granted, those are a ton of numbers to try to digest so let's break things down to try to make sense of all that information.
The Magic's offense is mostly known for its 4-out/1-in offensive sets and its pick & rolls, with both play-types having a number of variations to it depending on the personnel. As such, it makes sense that Orlando would excel with its spot-up shooting because when Dwight Howard is in the post, he's the focus of the 4-out/1-in offensive set. Howard can go to himself on the offensive side of the ball or he can kick it out to one of the four shooters standing around the perimeter. One of them, then, can either attempt a shot or swing it around the perimeter. Because defenses are scrambling to cover everyone, if the ball movement is good, a player is bound to be open and have a good chance at making a bucket. Here's a list of Magic players and how each of them rates in the 'Spot-Up' category:
| Percentage of Time | Points Per Possession | Rank | Rating | |
| Mickael Pietrus | 17% | 0.98 | 59% | Good |
| Matt Barnes | 13% | 0.54 | 5% | Poor |
| Rashard Lewis | 13% | 1.27 | 92% | Excellent |
| J.J. Redick | 13% | 1.12 | 79% | Very Good |
| Ryan Anderson | 12% | 0.95 | 54% | Good |
| Vince Carter | 10% | 1.16 | 83% | Excellent |
Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, or Jason Williams are the primary pick & roll ballhandlers. Usually the pick & roll is used so that one of the aforementioned players engages on offense and looks to score. Fairly self-explanatory. Even though J.J. Redick isn't listed, he excels in the pick & roll, with statistics comparable to Williams (1.07 points per possession, "Excellent", 90%). Here's a list of Magic players and how each of them rates in the 'Pick & Roll' category:
| Percentage of Time | Points Per Possession | Rank | Rating | |
| Vince Carter | 29% | 1.04 | 84% | Excellent |
| Jameer Nelson | 26% | 0.97 | 67% | Very Good |
| Jason Williams | 22% | 1.06 | 88% | Excellent |
Lastly, the post-up. More often than not, Howard will be posting up and it will be occurring, the majority of the time, within 4-out/1-in offensive sets. As has been mentioned before, Howard can go to himself on the offensive side of the ball and if he does, good things usually happen. Here's a list of Magic players and how each of them rates in the 'Post-Up' category:
| Percentage of Time | Points Per Possession | Rank | Rating | |
| Dwight Howard | 69% | 0.97 | 64% | Good |
| Brandon Bass | 10% | 0.92 | 57% | Good |
More after the jump.
Say No to Isos
For the Magic, the only play-types the team is "Average" in is 'Post-Up' (15%) and 'Isolation' (7%). That's it. In every other category, Orlando rates "Good" or higher. Isolations aren't not a strength (0.87 points per possession) for the Magic, given that the squad rates in the middle-of-the-pack in that category with a rank of 50% - thanks, mostly, to Nelson (see numbers below).
Even though Orlando can score in isolation if need be, it's not the prescribed manner by which Van Gundy wants the players to execute on offense. Inside-out (mainly with Howard), not one-on-one, is the mantra for the Magic on the offensive side of the ball (thus, working the basketball through the post can't be ignored). But if push comes to shove, again, there are individuals on the team who can create shots on their own. Van Gundy has said a number of times that the best teams in the NBA have at least one player who can get shots at will and to have someone like that on the Magic, particularly Carter, is good. Here's a list of Magic players and how each of them rates in the 'Isolation' category:
| Percentage of Time | Points Per Possession | Rank | Rating | |
| Vince Carter | 30% | 1.00 | 81% | Very Good |
| Jameer Nelson | 20% | 0.74 | 25% | Below Average |
| Brandon Bass | 10% | 0.88 | 57% | Good |
Pick & Rolls an Achilles' Heel on Defense, As Expected
Although the defense for the Magic has steadily improved since the start of the regular season, the defensive effort against the pick & roll could certainly improve. Last year, Orlando was one of the best squads in the Association at defending the pick & roll but this year, the Magic aren't doing as good of a job - giving up too many points (0.88 points per possession) and sporting a rank of 22%, which is "Below Average." The Los Angeles Lakers, by comparison, allow 0.78 points per possession, 61%, which falls in the "Good" strata.
The main issue, as Van Gundy told me at practice last week, has largely been the rotations. Three or four players will make the right rotation but one player will be a little bit late and the team is in trouble, as a result. When a squad like Orlando is incorporating a number of new faces to Van Gundy's defensive schemes, breakdowns like these will occur. It's inevitable. The key is looking for signs of improvement and look no further than the Magic's victory against the New York Knicks a few days ago, in which the team's pick & roll defense was excellent. Like Orlando's defensive efficiency, the pick & roll defense should improve as the regular season progresses. Here's a list of Magic players and how each of them rates in the 'Defending the Screener in a Pick & Roll' category:
| Percentage of Time | Points Per Possession | Rank | Rating | |
| Jason Williams | 29% | 0.83 | 62% | Good |
| Jameer Nelson | 20% | 0.93 | 38% | Average |
| J.J. Redick | 13% | 1.10 | 14% | Poor |
| Mickael Pietrus | 11% | 1.00 | 25% | Below Average |
| Matt Barnes | 10% | 1.34 | 3% | Poor |
| Vince Carter | 10% | 0.77 | 75% | Very Good |
As one can see, the issue hasn't been Howard or Marcin Gortat in defending the pick & roll, but rather the wing players for the Magic. In terms of individuals who were with Orlando last year, Mickael Pietrus and Redick aren't playing to their capabilities on the defensive side of the ball so their dip is a bit of a surprise.
Again, that aspect of the defense should improve as the regular season progresses.
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23 comments
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Comments
So the Magic are 6th in Defensive Efficiency despite not defending the pick-and-roll well?
Holy smokes.
Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Brandon Bass: "I just play hard."
by Ben Q Rock on Dec 7, 2009 8:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Scary, right?
That’s partly what’s holding Orlando back from being even more stout on defense.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome post here. Incredibly detailed and informative.
by MagicMark on Dec 7, 2009 8:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks!
Being a mathematician and statistician I look forward to seeing this type of analysis. I especially appreciate your pointing out the various sites that are gathering the numbers so I can do my own analysis. Very glad to see you are able to continue this type of post.
When does school start up again?
by NC Magic Fan on Dec 7, 2009 9:46 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
By the way
Why is Vince listed twice on the ISO’s?
by NC Magic Fan on Dec 7, 2009 10:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...
with different statistics, too. I’m thinking supposed to be someone else
by QBallWhitey on Dec 7, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I've contacted Eddy to make him aware of the problem
I hope he’s not too busy today.
Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Brandon Bass: "I just play hard."
by Ben Q Rock on Dec 7, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fixed.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
School starts for me in January.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Redick’s got some surprisingly great numbers.
by kerem on Dec 7, 2009 11:25 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not anymore. J.J. wasn't supposed to be listed in the 'Isolation' category.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Our guys are at it again...
Ben and ERivera must take great pleasure in assessing these numbers and giving it to us in “Laymen’s” terms (hey erivera7-do you get college credit for this?). So Vince ( a great athlete), CAN play pretty good D, eh?
by mike in munich on Dec 7, 2009 12:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No college credit, it's out of my own free will.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This is what I am Talking about!
Thanks guys!
Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...
by BS Patrol on Dec 7, 2009 12:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
You're welcome.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All numbers correspond to what I'm seeing on the court.
Vince’s Iso #’s will definitely improve, because you can only miss so many layups/easy shots before the percentages even out. Defensively, it seems that experience guarding pick and rolls leads to efficiency as VC and JWill are the best pick and roll defenders.
It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."
by ben_gleicher on Dec 7, 2009 2:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I feel like the numbers we're lookingg at are about all you can expect from isos.
An iso is by its definition not an open shot. And you can miss a lot of lay-ups when you’re taking them over the opponent. The fact that a guy like Carter, who’s no longer physically dominant, is even getting as many as 1.00 point per iso is surprising enough.
Bo Outlaw's name is Charles. Chucky Atkins' isn't.
by 3.3seconds on Dec 7, 2009 7:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, if Vince made more of his layups, his efficiency within the 'Isolation' category would be better.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
But still, 1.00 is well above the league average already.
Are these numbers publicly available?
Bo Outlaw's name is Charles. Chucky Atkins' isn't.
by 3.3seconds on Dec 7, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, they're not.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 8, 2009 3:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff E, great read!
Vince did pretty well in this analysis.
Excellent at spotting up, excellent at scoring off the pick-and-roll, very good in isolations, very good in defending the pick and roll.
by thermodynamic on Dec 7, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Carter rated well in a number of categories.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Dec 7, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs



















