Stan Van Gundy Dealing with His Own Version of the Kobayashi Maru (a No-Win Scenario)
by erivera7 on Nov 30, 2009 8:00 AM EST
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Don't know what the Kobayashi Maru is? Click here.
On the Orlando Magic's post-game show after the Milwaukee Bucks game, in which Brandon Bass came up in the conversation (played roughly nine minutes; first time he had seen action since November 18th), Matt Guokas alluded to the point that head coach Stan Van Gundy is in a bit of a no-win scenario when it comes to handling the playing time of Ryan Anderson and the aforementioned Bass. In essence, no matter who Van Gundy chooses to back-up Rashard Lewis, there will be questions as to why the odd-man out isn't seeing minutes. Bass, in this case. So, is Van Gundy making the right decision in choosing Anderson over Bass?
In short, yes. But let's further expand on the answer.
One of the main reasons is because it's a stylistic choice - with Anderson, the Magic do not have to alter its style of play when Lewis is on the bench. For example, Orlando can still run 4-out/1-in offensive sets with Anderson and the results can still be potent, given that he is shooting 41.5% from three-point range this year (Lewis, for comparison's sake, has a career percentage of 39.0%). Of course, there's more to it than that.
According to BasketballValue, Anderson is part of two of the three best Magic lineups so far in the regular season. The best lineup - which includes Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson, and Dwight Howard - has posted a staggering Offensive Rating of 155.5 in roughly 53 minutes of action. The sample size is small, sure, but that's a number that's hard to ignore. Conversely, three of the four worst five-man units for Orlando include Bass - the crux of the problem being that the team can't score with him on the court. If one thinks about it logically, it makes sense, because the Magic are forced to play more conventionally with Bass and as a result, the offense suffers.
| Ryan Anderson | Brandon Bass | |
| adj. defensive plus/minus | +3.27 | +10.57 |
| opponent PER vs. PF's | 15.0 | 15.6 |
| net defensive plus/minus | +1.3 | +14.3 |
| eFG% allowed | 48.2% | 52.3% |
Another reason why Anderson plays and Bass doesn't is because the former is a bit further along on the defensive side of the ball. At best, Anderson has been an average defender this year but Bass has been worse. For Bass, it's not because of a lack of effort but more due to the fact he's late on his rotations and isn't assimilating Van Gundy's schemes on defense as quickly as one would hope. Whether or not Bass will be able to pick things up, defensively, remains to be seen but he's certainly capable of being a net positive on that end of the floor. Time will tell.
And lastly, Anderson has been the better player than Bass. However, one can't complain about the production from either individual (more so, offensively, than anything else). So, unless something happens to Anderson and he's involuntarily or voluntarily unable to play, Bass will continue to be the 11th man in the Orlando rotation until further notice. It's not an indictment on Bass' skill. The fact of the matter is that Anderson is an individual who is a better fit and a better player for the Magic.
One possible alternative for Stan Van Gundy, if he wishes to explore the possibility, is for Bass to see some minutes at center. As one should know, Marcin Gortat hasn't been setting the world on fire with his production, and if the coaching staff for the Orlando Magic would consider it, playing Brandon at the five when the matchups are favorable wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea. With Bass at that position as opposed to Gortat, defense would be sacrificed a bit, but the returns on offense could make it a moot point. The Magic could still play unconventionally, offensively, but with an added dimension - Bass' ability to make the mid-range jumper with efficiency. When Gortat was out due to an illness against the Charlotte Bobcats on November 16th, Bass played the center position for a brief period of time and the results were positive. According to Zach McCann of Orlando Magic Daily, it seemed like Bass was more comfortable playing in that role (especially on defense). Whatever happens from here on out, it's an option that's there for the team if need be. As for Bass, it can be certain that he'll eventually find his niche with the squad.
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love the Kobayashi Maru reference ;)
Definitely wouldn’t have thought that Bass would be the odd man out coming into the season, but yes it does make a lot of sense.
But, we know he’ll see some playing time against various lineups. Its all about matchups. Its sorta like w/ Redick last year. He was completely invisible at times, and then came out of nowhere to start and play big minutes in the Boston series.
The only real unfortunate thing is that Bass is locked to a 3 yr contract paying him 4mil. That’s quite a bit for someone who’s currently playing such a limited role.
I don't see that as unfortunate. I see that as a bargain due to how Brandon produces when he plays.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Stan doesn't believe in the no-win scenario.
He should reprogram the rules of basketball to allow the Magic to play six players at a time.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
Bass at $4 mil
is a better deal than Tony Battie at $6.2 mil. The reality is any player coming off his rookie contract that has talent and potential is going to be paid $4 mil or more. The only “bargains” making less than that are journeymen like Barnes who are no longer living on potential.
Correct. Don't forget he's 24 and approaching his/in his prime.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
if they cant use bass
then might as well trade him or gortat for someone we can use. hate to say it but with jameer getting injured and our back up pg’s are already in their prime, i think we need to train and acquire a young pg with a lot of potential that can fit into to SVG’s system.
randy foye or jerryd bayless everyone??
what we do in life echoes in eternity
That's a foolish decision.
A team can never have enough big men. Trading Brandon Bass would almost be pointless.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Yeah, Bass is a relative bargain when considering frontcourt players in the NBA
But facts are facts. We’re a better team when we play our style of ball, not “conventional” ball. And that’s OK, because we’re winning (and have been winning). In hindsight, it’s interesting how a lot of people were salivating at the thought of us playing conventionally after signing Bass, conveniently forgetting how successful we had been. And like e said, this isn’t an indictment of Bass’ talent but rather points to the effectiveness of the Anderson/’Shard combo.
As for trading anyone on this team, however, I see no reason to. We’re set at point guard and can easily weather Jameer’s injury. If anything, I’d like to wait until draft time and pluck a young guy that way by trading up/in if need be.
No point to trading Brandon, as I'm certain he'll find his niche with the team soon.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I think we keep Bass, trade Gortat for another offensive piece:
To Houston anyone? Or since Knicks need a big guy that can run (D’Antoni system), and we can use guards, trade Gortat and AJ to them for that 12 year old boy (Nate) and one of their draft picks???
Go Magic/Bucs/Gators/Rays!
by chiefs_55 on Nov 30, 2009 12:33 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Bass is a rebounder extraordinaire and a stretch 5!!!
Go Magic/Bucs/Gators/Rays!
by chiefs_55 on Nov 30, 2009 12:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't know about rebounder extraordinaire, more like ordinary, but he is a stretch 5.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
We touched on this before
But its nice to know Brandon will Never complain or disrupt the team chemistry as a result of not playing
Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...
I'M sure he won't.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I know this is completely unrelated to the post, but poor Lawrence Frank. Someone should take a flamethrower to that team, and start over from scratch.
I think anytime someone here makes a negative comment about the team’s play, the reply should be “at least we’re not New Jersey fans” :)
"We got more gongs than the break dancing robot that caught on fire"-Homer J. Simpson
I love me some E (Kobayashi Maru?! YES!)
And I don’t want to seem like jumping the gun, because I said this before the season- Brandon saw plenty of time with Dallas at the 5 and if he is comfortable there, that’s where we should play him. So yes, I’m in favor of trading Gortat (when the TIME COMES), for a young PG, cap space and maybe a pick. But the time won’t be for a long while. I just really think Bass can really fill in at the 5.
Otis Smith is one of the best GM's in the league and I can assure you he's always looking ahead.
It makes no sense trading away Brandon when Marcin is probably going to be moved in the off-season.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Macrin won't be moved
unless Otis has a plan in place. I think over the off season picking up a young PG and a more than serviceable backup to D12 would make the Machine tradeable. Otis is going to have good backup to D12, if for no other reason than the beating he takes could wind up in injuries that cut his time.
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 30, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Problem is, the Magic won't be able to continue to afford Gortat.
I’m almost certain he’ll be traded once the season is over, unless Orlando wins it all.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
I'm surprised about Bass
i definitely thought he would be the one getting most of the backup PF minutes but Anderson has been Ridiculously good. I was most surprised against Boston because Bass and Barnes are 2 guys I thought we needed against Boston because they add a certain level of toughness. Both were non factors and the Magic handled the Celtics comfortably.
Is Bass better against the Western teams? Lakers, Blazers, and Nuggets seem to be good matchups for him but we only play them twice a year so I don’t know how this is going to work out for him.
"It's all part of the plan." Jeff Moorad and The Joker in the Dark Knight.
"Dwight Howard couldn't score 40 points in a game if he was going against Yi Jianlian's chair." Bill Simmons chat 5/20
"I don't feel this team can beat us four times," Mo Williams 5/21
My thoughts, Bass should be playing more but Ryan can secure the job if he rebounds more.
I predicted there would be a more even distribution of play time for Bass and Ryan, or even more for Bass, and I was clearly wrong. I know Ryan is a great fit, but I keep coming up confused as to why we play a Lewis-lite when we can develop a 4 into a true 4 and get the Magic accustomed to a more traditional style for bigger matchups and throwing out a different offensive look if the team can rebound from playing poor offensively with Bass (play him with all/most starters more would fix it). The Magic did it all last year with Battie’s rotation job, so I figured Bass would be atleast doing half as much as Ryan plays the other half on another night. But SVG is not developing and playing Bass enough. If I were the Magic, I would be playing Bass next to Dwight in all practices, forcing him to rebound and defend, and playing him much more than now. Ryan can secure it if he picks up the defense and rebounding, particularly rebounding too. On offense, he should keep doing some good drives and inside plays to diversify himself, but his bread and butter is to hit the 3’s while he keeps developing his defense and rebounding.
The thing is, Ryan is a better rebounder than Bass already.
They were around equally good last year, and Ryan has been a bit better this year. So saying he needs to improve his rebounding doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.
I guess the situation is, what is Bass better at? I mean, Ryan is the better offensive player. That’s true now, it’ll probably always be true. If I had to choose a rebounder, I’d go with Ryan again — they were both 15-16% defensive rebounders last year, and Ryan’s somewhat better this year. Which leaves defense… this is the one thing Bass should theoretically be better at, but right now he’s not. So it’s difficult to justify playing Bass extended minutes, given that Ryan’s basically better at everything. Bass can change that, but he has to change that.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
In my opinion, Bass needs to be the better defender for him to see minutes.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Meanwhile, playing Bass over Gortat makes even less sense to me.
Why do we need Gortat? Because he supplies rebounding when Dwight is out. (He also does other things, but that’s the main one.) Now, Gortat’s rebounding numbers are off early in the season, but he’s still obviously a better rebounder than Bass. Add in the question marks about Bass’ defense and the size issue, and you have a situation where Bass doesn’t do what we need from that role. Sure, he’s a better scorer than Gortat, but scoring isn’t what we need from our backup center.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
I think playing Bass over Gortat has it uses when the matchups are favorable.
I’m not advocating for Brandon to play over Marcin but I think it’s worth considering, periodically.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
We can play Bass against Hayes in Houston
Blow the analysts’ minds by having both teams play centers shorter than their power forwards.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Maybe... but personally, I can't get over the rebounding thing.
I feel like having a strong rebounder at the 5 is pretty crucial to this team, given that none of our PFs (including Bass) are very good at rebounding. I just see a Bass/Lewis or Bass/Anderson frontcourt getting killed on the boards.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
I think it can work if Barnes is in the 5-man unit.
Matt’s total rebound percentage is 13.3%, a little less than Marcin’s number of 14.1% .. that can compensate for the lack of rebounding from Bass (and to a lesser extent, Anderson).
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Yeah, but that's Marcin this November.
Gortat is normally a substantially better rebounder than that, and I firmly believe he’ll start showing it again one of these days.
Still, I agree — if we’re going to play Bass at C, Barnes should definitely also be involved.
He's currently two-thirds man, one-third amazing. Which, let's face it, is still a pretty good ratio.
Right. Marcin is a better rebounder than the numbers have shown, so far.
I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
Wonder if a little Bass at the 5 might wake Gortat up.
Marcin is pretty high on getting playing time…..would he grouse or be motivated? Probably too hard to forecast.
by magicfaninTN on Nov 30, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
Last years rebound percentages
Howard 39.1
Gotat 35.2
Anderson 25.3
Bass 24.8
Barnes 20.7
Lewis 15.8
Foyle 39.8
these are player rebound ratins, not percentages, from 82 Games.
by NC Magic Fan on Nov 30, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
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