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What's Wrong with Marcin Gortat?

One of the Orlando Magic's biggest problems this season has been star center Dwight Howard's persistent foul trouble. Any team will suffer when its best player is off the court--unless you believe in the Ewing theory--but Howard's situation is pronounced since, without his presence in the middle drawing double teams, the Magic's three-point shooters aren't afforded as much space to get shots off.

This situation is not unique to this season, of course. With Howard suspended for Game 6 of last year's Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, the Magic ran their offense through Rashard Lewis in the post, and coasted to a 25-point victory. Marcin Gortat, starting in Howard's place, came up big: he posted 11 points on 5-of-8 shooting, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals. Such a performance isn't unusual for the Polish Prince. Prior to this season, he had averaged 10.2 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks in regular-season games in which he played at least 25 minutes. In short, he proved to be a starting-quality center, provided he got playing time.

The Dallas Mavericks took note of Gortat's skills--among them athleticism, strong defensive instincts, good hands, superb rebounding--and signed him to an offer sheet worth the full mid-level exception. The Magic made the startling decision to match the offer sheet, making Gortat their fifth-highest-paid player. Indeed, only Vince Carter, Lewis, Howard, and Jameer Nelson will earn more of the Magic's money this season, and they've all earned selections to the All-Star team at least once in their careers.

Which brings me back to my first point: Howard's foul trouble is costing the Magic on both ends because Gortat is, stunningly, not playing nearly as well as he had during his first two years in the NBA. His Player Efficiency Rating after two seasons was an impressive 17.0, which ranks him slightly better than a "3rd banana" according to John Hollinger's PER scale. This year, it's just 11.6, which places Gortat in the "scrounging for minutes" camp.

Star-divide

 

As the table below illustrates, Gortat's efficient scoring has taken a bit of a hit, while his rebounding has dropped sharply in all categories. Note that I combined his rookie and sophomore seasons because he played just 41 minutes as a rookie, as the Magic put their trust in Adonal Foyle to relieve Howard:

Shooting and Rebounding Statistics for Marcin Gortat, 2007/08-2008/09 (Cumulative) and 2009/10 NBA Seasons
SeasonFG%OReb%DReb%TReb%
2007/08
2008/09
(cumulative)
55.9% 14.5% 26.1% 20.4%
2008/09 51.0% 8.9% 19.7% 14.1%
Statistics from Basketball-Reference.com

If you want me to tell you why Gortat has regressed as a rebounder, I don't know what to tell you. He hasn't taken any plays off, so it's not a question of effort. He's just straight-up getting beaten to rebounds, something that rarely happened in his first two seasons. Maybe it's an issue of technique, or of small sample size. In any case, I'm keeping my eyes peeled in the coming days and weeks to see what happened to Gortat's formerly elite rebounding ability. Whatever's causing it must be serious, since his total rebounding is down 30% from last year.

Fortunately, 82games.com can provide insight into Gortat's shooting slump. Below, I've reproduced his shot selection and efficiency from last season and this season.

Shot Selection for Marcin Gortat, 2008/09 NBA Season
ShotAtt.eFG%Ast'dBlk'dPts
Jump 24 .380 71% 7% 0.6
Close 55 .644 76% 12% 2.1
Dunk 9 .875 100% 6% 0.4
Tips 12 .409 0% 0% 0.3
Inside 76 .634 72% 9% 2.9
Chart reproduced from 82games.com
Shot Selection for Marcin Gortat, 2009/10 NBA Season
ShotAtt.eFG%Ast'dBlk'dPts
Jump 29 .400 100% 0% 0.9
Close 47 .500 67% 4% 1.8
Dunk 10 1.000 100% 0% 0.8
Tips 14 .429 0% 0% 0.5
Inside 71 .556 65% 3% 3.1
Chart reproduced from 82games.com

Gortat's offensive struggles don't have anything to do with his increased reliance on the jumper, which seems counter-intuitive. His lack of accuracy on close shots that aren't dunks or tip-ins is the culprit... and it's not like he's getting blocked inside. In fact, he's two-thirds less likely to get rejected inside than he was last year. Indeed, it appears as though Gortat has a prolonged case of the hiccups around the hoop. He made 64.4% of such shots last year, which, as the tables show, has dropped to 50% this year. Thus, it appears as though he's mired in a funk, and his shooting touch from the inside return soon. Unless, of course, there's some sort of mental issue preventing him from scoring inside with any degree of reliability. Is he hurrying to put up shots inside? Is he not focused on the task at hand? Has the pressure of signing a big-money deal worn on him? Only observation can answer the first of those questions; Gortat's the only person who can answer the next two with any certainty.

What is clear is that Marcin Gortat needs to step up his game, especially on the glass and in the offensive low-post, if Dwight Howard continues to get himself in foul trouble. At his best, Gortat's arguably the league's top backup center, although we're willing to hear arguments in favor of Joel Przybilla. What was once an embarrassment of riches for the Magic at center, with Howard and Gortat manning the pivot, has become an embarrassment, relative to expectations.

2 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

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Great piece. I expected more from Gortat this year, too. Friends have been ragging on me because I was so high on him in the off-season. Not too worried just yet, though – the season is young.

by Vic De Zen on Nov 25, 2009 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

Is it possible that...

Since he’s sharing minutes with Dwight on occasion now and sharing lots of minutes with Bass, that’s why his boards have gone down? The Magic’s overall defensive rebound rate with him in hasn’t dropped much at all, only 1% for the team, despite a 5+% decrease for Gortar. I’d hypothesize that because Bass is obviously a much better rebounder than either Tony Battie or Rashard Lewis, Gortat’s rebounding numbers are bound to drop.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Nov 25, 2009 2:12 PM EST reply actions  

Do you mean Ryan Anderson?

Bass DNP’d the last two games and, of course, had no rebounds.

by NC Magic Fan on Nov 25, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Brandon has barely played, lately.

Ryan has assumed the role of back-up power forward and even then, his rebounding rate doesn’t suggest that he’s encroaching on available rebounds for Marcin Gortat. Though, it might be. I’m quickly looking at the numbers from last year and this year and the only players that had double-digit rebound percentages for the Magic (in the rotation) were Tony Battie, Dwight Howard, and Gortat. This year it’s Anderson, Matt Barnes, and Rashard Lewis, alongside Dwight and Marcin so that might be what’s causing the discrepancy. It appears, for the moment, that it’s a group of players that are eating away at Gortat’s rebounding numbers.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 25, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

On 82games...

It looks like Bass has the most minutes with Gortat, more than Anderson (Anderson isn’t even listed in a unit with Gortat on 82games yet). I know it’s Anderson now, but while Rashard was out Bass played a decent number of minutes with him, right?

Even if it’s not Bass though, Gortat’s decline has barely dropped the Magic’s overall rebound rate, so someone has to be picking up the slack.

Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist

by djturtleface on Nov 25, 2009 7:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Like I said, I think it's a collective group that's cutting into Marcin's numbers a bit.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 26, 2009 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

I wouldn't be worried about Marcin Gortat.

I’m sure he’ll bounce back, statistically. It’s a long season.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 25, 2009 2:52 PM EST reply actions  

Gortat

Was playing for a contract, now he is paid.. Simple as that? LOL

"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Nov 25, 2009 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

No, that's not the reason, though I can see why people would think that (it's bound to happen).

Marcin is playing with the same effort as he had last year.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 25, 2009 3:28 PM EST up reply actions  

CA fan.

I have only seen 3 games and the games I watched he looked fine.

Long season, he will pick it up.

"No matter where you go, you are what you are playa"-Jay Z
Twitter Account

by Wmillion on Nov 25, 2009 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough.

I’ve seen him live plenty of times and I assure you that he isn’t putting less effort into games.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 26, 2009 12:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Not to worry about Gortat.

Gortat is in there for defense. And to have Bass is a luxury. I’m less concened with the numbers. more concerned with the Magic winning games. The problem is Dwight not making his foul shots. If he shoots 80%. They treat him like Tim Duncan. which means the other guy gets called for the foul. Thats how it works in the big city.

by domprime1 on Nov 25, 2009 5:46 PM EST reply actions  

Funny you mention Duncan...

Because out of his long, wonderful career, he’s only had 4 seasons where he’s shot over 70% from the FT line (not counting the current young season). Timmy never really got criticized for it because he had a jump shot or something. But yeah, he had some seasons around 60% in the middle of his career.

(Side note, his FT percentages are actually very uneven. Kind of confusing for a player of Duncan’s level that possesses the work ethic and talent that he does.)

by slickw143 on Nov 25, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions  

On Ryan

It doesn’t make any sense to me that Petris is starting. Ryan can give you 15 to 20 points.
and with good defense. He’s been less effective lately because you lose something when you go from 30 min/game to 15 min/game. Time to slide lewis to the three.

Petris will have the 20 point game every 4 to 5 games. Ryan would be more frequent. A good strategy would be to have anderson for the first half then based on what the defensive needs are, throw in Petris or Bass. I would put Barns on the back burner let Bass Play more. He’s fast and playes excellent offense and defense. He would also be a diffcult cover most of the time. I know the stat sheet say’s he’s only 6’-8". But he’s
A great jumper. and has a hugh wing span.

I think its worth a try.

by domprime1 on Nov 25, 2009 6:00 PM EST reply actions  

Defense is why it makes sense to Stan, primarily.

Ryan isn’t nearly as good of a defender as Rashard or Pietrus, not to mention Rashard isn’t as good at defending the 3 as he is the 4 (although he’s surprised me with his D when he has played the 3 in short stretches so far; I would have to see some numbers on that though). Ryan will eventually be a starter for this team, but it likely won’t be this year.

Secondary reason Ryan is coming off the bench is to keep the Magic’s playstyle when we go to the second unit. Having two stretch 4’s does wonders for the offense if our shots are falling around our average percentages. Barnes hasn’t been shooting well at all lately, but he does a lot of other things well that Stan likes (namely offering offensive flexibility, rebounding, and defense). I assume Bass will get his, we didn’t offer him $4 million a year to sit on the bench. But right now, it’s just a tough rotation to crack, definitely harder than Dallas’ frontcourt last year.

by slickw143 on Nov 25, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You pretty much nailed it with your assessment.

All I’ll add is that Anderson’s scoring is sorely needed as a reserve.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 26, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Pietrus showed tonight, especially on defense, why he should continue to start at the 3.

Starting Lewis at small forward would be counter-productive.

I write for Third Quarter Collapse and have a Twitter account.

"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat

by erivera7 on Nov 26, 2009 12:19 AM EST up reply actions  

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