Orlando Magic News for October 5th: Dwyer Rates Coaches, Hollinger Projects Players, and SLAM Rates the Magic

by Ben Q Rock on Oct 5, 2009 2:38 PM EDT in News Comment 19 comments

The top 10 NBA coaches of the last decade

In his latest Top-10 list, Kelly Dwyer tackles the subject of coaching, and attempts to rank the ten best coaches of the decade. The Orlando Magic's own Stan Van Gundy rates 4th, behind only three surefire Hall-of-Famers (in descending order: Hubie Brown of the Memphis Grizzlies, Phil Jackson of the Los Angeles Lakers, and Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs). Dwyer explains:

It may seem like SVG has a slim resume working for him, but I don't know if there is any other coach working today that has as sound a take on how the modern pro game works as much as Van Gundy.

The results speak for themselves. The Magic have been working to the absolute peak of their potential since he took over. That's gotta be coaching. Every year, he makes the best-case scenario come true.

That's a ringing endorsement from a knowledgeable NBA scribe, and I would hope some NBA observers would take it into consideration when, say, upbraiding Van Gundy for publicly calling out Vince Carter in the media for his poor defense. Dispute his methods if you like, but don't dispute the results.
Hollinger Profiles: Orlando Magic

Stats guru John Hollinger, whose work Van Gundy reads with great interest, published his annual Player Efficiency Rating projections today. The link above will take you just to the Magic's page of predictions, but you can also view the league at large, or position-by-position. Of note:
- Dwight Howard is first among centers and 4th overall, sandwiched between LeBron James and Kevin Durant in the latter list.
- Jameer Nelson (9th among point guards) and Vince Carter (8th among shooting guards) were the other Magic players to rate in the top 10 of their respective positions.
- Here's what surprised me most: Rashard Lewis ranked 32nd among power forwards. Indeed, both Brandon Bass (20th) and Ryan Anderson (26th) project to have more efficient seasons than Lewis at that position. Because I'm not an Insider subscriber, I can't read Hollinger's entire take on Lewis, so I can't explain why he figures to have a below-average PER. Age and three-point shooting, I imagine. But wow.
- On the plus side, Marcin Gortat gets his due, ranking as the 14th-best center in the league, directly behind Emeka Okafor and directly ahead of Roy Hibbert.
SLAM ONLINE | 30 Teams-30 Days

But if you thought Hollinger's sour outlook regarding Lewis was surprising, well, you haven't seen anything yet. Konate Primus of SLAM Online forecasts a 53-29 finish for the Magic and a second-round playoff exit at the Cleveland Cavaliers' hands this year. Why? Here's Primus:

People are expecting the Magic to come out blazing like mad men but I don’t believe this will happen for one reason. And his name is Vince Carter!

Vince is no wash-up please, believe that, but he is a lazzzzy bum when he feels like it’s not necessary to play. I don’t think he’s the right fit for this team. Sure his skill level is still up to par, but the chemistry level doesn’t sit right in my stomach. I think Hedo [Turkoglu] was taken for granted — there wasn’t another player last year to put in work like Hedo (maybe Kobe [Bryant]). You can’t replace clutch and that’s what Hedo brought! Vince, on the other hand, may be a better player overall, but not as clutch.

I don't take issue with people doubting Vince's fit on the team; it's indeed valid to acknowledge that Turkoglu's size (6'10") and inbounding skill (I'm not being facetious) really helped the Magic in the last two seasons, and that the 6'07" Carter might not be as good an inbound passer. But to suggest that Hedo was more clutch than Vince simply isn't valid. With a quick internet search, we can easily access these clutch statistics from 82games.com: last year, Hedo averaged 26.7 points per 48 minutes of clutch play, shooting 35.7% from the field overall and 20.0% from three-point range during that time. Carter's averages in clutch situations? 34.3 points per 48 minutes (18th-best in the league), 50% from the field, and 50% on three-pointers.

Now I know that Hedo made some brilliant plays in the playoffs, including his game-winning three-pointer in Game 4 against Philadelphia and his game-saving rejection of Bryant in Game 2 of the NBA Finals. And all these heroics took place while Vince's season was over, as he has not appeared in the playoffs since the 2006/2007 season. Blame the recency effect. Vince has proven, time and again, to be a more capable clutch performer than Turkoglu. Let us not allow Turk's many nationally televised appearances cloud our judgment.
Dwight Howard's Florida house for sale, $2.95 million
UPDATE: (from Eddy) J.E. Skeets of Ball Don't Lie shares some news which involve Dwight Howard - he's selling his house in Windemere.
Orlando Magic man Dwight Howard is selling his 7,796 square foot, four-bedroom, five-point-five-bathroom home in Windermere, Florida for just $2,950,000 Americano dollars. Score!

Yes, you read that correctly. Up until not too long ago, the All-Star center was living in a very reasonably sized residence — under 8,000 square feet. I don't know about you, but I thought Dwight's massive 6'11" frame actually took up some 8,000 square feet of real estate, so this news comes as a bit of a surprise.
UPDATE 2: (from Eddy) More news about Superman; he appears on the cover for Sports Illustrated Kids and talks about being on the cover of NBA Live 10.

Photo is courtesy of Sports Illustrated.

That's all on the general news front. We'll be back at 6 PM with a GameThread for tonight's exhibition contest between the Magic and the Dallas Mavericks.

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Player Projections

Keep in mind that this is a COMPUTER FORMULA based on past trends. The important part of the projections is Hollinger’s analysis, which is more often than not very accurate. For example, Vince has had a higher PER than the computer’s projection every year I can remember. The projection only tells us what the computer expects of a player based on what similar players have done. Guys like Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, and Dwight Howard, however, generally “don’t fit the mold.”

It's not a dunk unless your hand makes contact with the rim. Yeah, I'm talkin' to you, "Superman..."

by ben_gleicher on Oct 5, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great comment, I would agree.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 5, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't freak out over the PER projections.

There are metrics that like certain type of players. For instance, PER may like not Rashard Lewis but adjusted plus/minus likes him, A LOT (one of the few metrics to quantify Rashard’s flexibility as a player).

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 5, 2009 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yawn @SLAM

Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...

by BS Patrol on Oct 5, 2009 3:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hold SLAM Mag in as high regard as

such noble scribes as Teen Beat and National Enquirer. Plus it seems like their writers all graduate from the Scoop Jackson school of front runner writing.

by cambi1 on Oct 5, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't mind if writers aren't high on the Magic, everyone has an opinion and that's fine.

But to use outdated and vague criticisms to prove a point doesn’t really work.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 5, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exaaaaaactly.

by Stan in a Van (Down by the River) on Oct 5, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

It seems to me that whether the Magic had stood pat with Hedo, C Lee and co from last season or went out like we did and go Vince, Bass, Barnes and JWill that people who dont follow the team or have any sense of basketball knowledge will dismiss them to the likes of Boston or Cleveland. If we had resigned Hedo and not done much else in the offseason all these Slam types would be saying how all the other teams improved and we did nothing to make ourselves better, instead they say VC isnt as clutch as Hedo ha. Stan Van loves to drive in the point that the Magic do not get the respect they deserve STILL and I could not agree more. Last I checked it was the lowly ole Magic who won the East not the superpowers of Cleveland and Boston, seems like some things will just never change and thats just the way its going to be. Which is fine the me by the way, Magic do work on the court not in preseason polls and rankings.

by hedoswimmove on Oct 5, 2009 3:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good observation, certainly could be a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 5, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PER is driven a lot of the all around statistical numbers of players

and Rashard, outside of his solid scoring production and three point shooting, doesn’t standout much on the stat sheet. Low assist totals, low rebound totals, so-so shooting percentages, and not much in the defensive category, either, although he does get around a steal a game.

I have insider and Hollinger’s review of ‘Shard wasn’t scathing or anything. He admitted that Lewis is a nightmare matchup and is valuable because of his ability to play two different positions and play them well, just that statistically, he really doesn’t stand out much.

Hello.

by killa3312 on Oct 5, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have Insider too, pretty much the same as killa says here. Says Rashard is a good post up player and may see it more since his SEA days too.
Thinks Barnes is to play 10-15mins a game.
Thinks Bass will play aloot more, but I get a small vibe he likes Rashard at 4 still and that team style more too.

by derekk on Oct 5, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More on what Hollinger said about Rashard:
2009:
Playing good defense on PFs while bringing 3pnt shooting on offense is huge for the style and success. Says “stretch fours” like Lewis have become the rage in the NBA.
Shouldnt have been All Star, converted 32% of long 2’s, but did make most 3’s in league at a good 39.7%
Great assists ratio, thanks to passing to Dwight he thinks, low foul rate which was good since less depth behind him last season than now, bad rebound rate but less of a problem with rebound king Dwight.
Scouting:
One of league’s most difficult matchups, will stretch bigs with his 3’s, but also can post smaller opponents, esp. from the left block and using unblockable turnaround jumpers. May see alil more of this b/c he may play more 3 than before.
As a frontcourt player, he is deadly with pick and pops, shooting 3’s from anywhere- top of key even- (rather than corners where alot of players like the most) with a quick release. Less frequently seen moves are putting it on the and shoot a runner and buckets at the basket since he’s 6-10 after all.
Little defense in SEA, but became good in ORL. Magic try not to put tough matchups on him and he gets alot of defense help from Dwight, but Lewis is good on-ball defender and fairly mobile. Brings up a concern (that I also share) that altho Shard’s rebound rate is low, he should stick to 4 because he’s been neither exposed off the dribble nor beaten chasing cutters the way he been with the Sonics.
2010:
Suspended 10, wont bring too much impact beyond November. What may bring more impact is Bass, by moving Lewis to 3 more, thus projecting a decrease in his defensive when he’s there, but also projecting an increase in his offense, citing his left block post ups on small forwards, allowing him to be a more prominent scoring threat along with his barrage of 3’s.
The resulting stats he might expect is a bump up in scoring to the 19 range, with more FTs and less 3’s. His concluding statement is altho not really an All star based on his last 2 seasons and not worth the 20mil contract, he is a match up oddity that opponents have trouble contending with, and is one of the things that makes Orlando’s system work.

by derekk on Oct 5, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The computer seems oddly down on the Magic

Seriously, compare the players’ PER from last year with their projected PER from this year:

Player: Change
Anderson: +1.87
Barnes: -0.80
Bass: +0.27
Carter: -1.64
Gortat: -0.78
Howard: -1.01
Johnson: -1.22
Lewis: -1.95
Nelson: -1.85
Pietrus: -0.67
Redick: +0.82

So, Anderson, Bass, and Redick will be better than last year, and everyone else will be worse. I think Ben G brings up a good point that a lot of our players don’t fit the traditional mold, but that’s a seriously pessimistic computer.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 5, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yea, but from reading the scouting reports, season recaps and outlooks from Hollinger, nothing was pessimistic or too pessimistic to freak me out much really. And I remember freaking out last year over these so that the Magic could end up getting to the Finals instead.

I will say tho, I think Carter, Pietrus, Barnes, Dwight will actually have increased PERs this year anyways based on what Ive seen and know of them taking into account their ages and actual basketball systems and plays instead of only all numbers. Their PER drops dont seem very much either, Id even say Lewis too should increase his PER, but if Hollinger predicts nearly -2 than I must be missing something.

Jameer did have a rather torrid shooting year when I learned of the midrange 2pnt shooting he had last year in Hollinger’s view. Jameer had like 56 and 57 % right and left midrange 2pnt shots and 54.5 % on long 2’s and 56 % of 2’s not at the basket area, making him the top 2pnt midrange shooter in the league with a very comfortable lead. It was pretty cool to read that Nelson is the best 2pnt midrange shooter in the league (along with Top 3 TS% in all PGs), but %’s like that should deftly regress to the mean.

I think the %‘s are way too good tho to not admit Nelson is inherently a good shooter and his %’s this year should be impressive nonetheless. Im actually thinking, and hoping, instead of regressing to the mean, Nelson will come pretty close to matching or actually matching his last year %’s.

by derekk on Oct 5, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And concerning Dwight’s drop in PER, Hollinger also thinks Wade, LBJ, and CP3 will each drop in PER a tad bit, but I dont think any of the four players will be worse next year..

by derekk on Oct 5, 2009 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All those numbers pass the eye test, in my opinion.

Carter’s PER may drop, simply because he doesn’t have to produce as much as he had to in the past. Shoot, Lewis’ PER in Seattle was at 20 but has dipped down below that number since he’s been on Orlando for the basic reason that the squad has a ton of talent on the roster, specifically on offense. Nelson’s PER will drop, simply because he isn’t going to shoot so efficiently as he did last year.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 5, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs