Orlando Magic 2009/2010 Season Preview
Team Name: Orlando Magic
Last Year's Record: 59-23
Key Losses: point guard Rafer Alston (via trade with New Jersey), power forward Tony Battie (via trade with New Jersey), shooting guard Courtney Lee (via trade with New Jersey), point guard Tyronn Lue (via free agency; not re-signed), small forward Jeremy Richardson (via free agency to Aris Thessaloniki), and small forward Hedo Turkoglu (via sign-and-trade with Toronto)
Key Additions: power forward Ryan Anderson (via trade with New Jersey), combo forward Matt Barnes (via fee agency from Phoenix), forward/center Brandon Bass (via free agency from Dallas), shooting guard Vince Carter (via trade with New Jersey), and Jason Williams (via free agency from retirement)
What significant moves were made during the offseason?
Gosh, where to start with this question?
The Magic showed the door to Alston, Lee, and Turkoglu--three-fifths of the Magic's starting lineup in the NBA Finals--in large part to make room for Carter and Bass, the team's most significant short-term additions. Basketball observers appear to be split on the Magic's decision to essentially swap Turkoglu--their go-to scorer in the clutch, and their secondary playmaker--for Carter, who has not enjoyed playoff success or media acclaim in recent years. Nevermind the fact that Turkoglu had one borderline All-Star-caliber season before bottoming out in 2009, or that Carter might one day find himself enshrined in the Hall of Fame; who needs logic or statistics when we can rely on a few nationally televised games and abstract notions like "chemistry"?
We should not overlook the other additions, although Carter understandably looms largest. Bass, an undersized, powerful, bowling-ball of a frontcourt player in the Jason Maxiell mold, does everything Tony Battie did, but better; and, at 24, he may not have reached his peak. I think we tend to overstate Barnes' reputation as a defender just a tad--there's no way he's as talented as Mickael Pietrus on that end--but he's still well above-average, and can handle the ball some offensively. If nothing else, Williams is an upgrade over incumbent backup point guard Anthony Johnson due to his speed and superior court vision, although we suspect his lackluster defense might cause his grip on the position to loosen as the season progresses. Neither player gives the Magic an upgrade over the departed Alston, which sounds worrisome until one realizes that Alston never would have been happy backing up Nelson this year. That the Magic dealt him to a team with a rotation featuring an All-Star (Devin Harris) and an underrated sixth-man (Keyon Dooling) at the position is a small irony.
Anderson? He's the wild card. For all we know, he'll start at power forward during Rashard Lewis' 10-game suspension... then vanish from the rotation completely upon Lewis' return. If he can stop getting his shot swatted inside, and if he can keep his three-point shooting high, he could prove quite the secret weapon for Orlando. I mean that. He didn't turn 21 until the middle of the playoffs, he's 6'10", he can rebound at a rate comparable to the more imposing Bass, and he can shoot the three-ball. There's a lot to like about him. Then again, there's a lot to like about Lewis and Bass as well, and there are only so many minutes (48!) available at power forward. This coaching problem for Stan Van Gundy is one plenty of other helmsmen would love to have.
A lot of coaches would love to have Lee, just 24, on their team, too, given his selfless play and immediate ability to contribute as a rookie. In New Jersey, he'll have more offensive responsibilities, and will often be the best perimeter defender on the floor at any given time. The stage would be set for him to take over the Nets' starting two-guard job for the next decade if it weren't for the presence of second-year man Chris Douglas-Roberts and rookie Terrence Williams to challenge him. I understand that Magic fans are upset to see Lee go, but I can't help but think that we've overrated him--he's only a three-point shooter and fast-break finisher on offense--while simultaneously underrating the younger Anderson, who had a higher Player Efficiency Rating than Lee did last year, albeit at a much different position.
The Magic won't miss Lue or Richardson much, as they only played a combined 222 minutes over 26 games last season. That they replaced their spots at the back end of the rotation with Williams (28 minutes per game in 2007/08, his most recent NBA season) and Anderson (20 minutes per game last season) speaks volumes about Orlando's--please permit me this adjective this one time--silly depth.
What are the team's biggest strengths?
With four recent All-Stars starting, as well as a bench featuring two of the league's best frontcourt reserves, and specialists, depth is absolutely Orlando's forte. Their projected second string of Williams, J.J. Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Bass, and Marcin Gortat could probably give bottom-feeding teams' starting lineups a run for their money. Last year's team was three wins away from a championship: now envision that team with a healthy Nelson replacing Alston, the more efficient Carter using Turkoglu's possessions, and the more dynamic Bass filling in for Battie. Upgrades across the board.
Indeed, as I alluded to earlier, Orlando's offense--which rated a surprisingly mediocre 11th in efficiency a year ago--should be much more potent this year. Carter is much more efficient than Turkoglu, although he's prone to the occasional awful game from time-to-time as well. Nelson likely won't duplicate his amazing shooting from last year (50% from the field, 45% from three-point range), but Carter's improvement over Turkoglu should mitigate any minor drop-off in Nelson's percentages. And with Carter the second option on offense behind Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis' usage rate could decline, which could lead to an increase in efficiency if Nelson and Carter can get him the ball in the right place.
Defense might be another story, as no one has ever revered Carter for his work at that end of the floor. Then again, Lewis had a reputation as a sieve during his days with the Seattle SuperSonics, but developed into an above-average defender at power forward since joining the Magic; Carter, playing for a championship in his hometown, and under the guidance of the defensive ace Van Gundy, and with the reigning Defensive Player of the Year behind him, could see an improvement along the lines of Lewis'. Nonetheless, we expect Orlando's defense to regress slightly this year, which isn't so bad; the Magic lead the league in defensive efficiency a year ago, so a modest decline would still have them in the top 5.
A top-5 offense with a top-5 defense? Holy smokes, what potential this team has! Of course, Boston, Cleveland, the L.A. Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs can all make similar claims about their respective proficiencies on both side of the ball. We are in for quite the season, aren't we?
What are the team's biggest weaknesses?
Saying "none" would be hubris of the highest order. But with a potential to rate in the upper echelon of the league on both sides of the ball, well, it's hard to point to anything really specific with this team. Magic detractors say that Carter will sink the Magic's chemistry, or that the new additions Boston and Cleveland made trump the Magic's. Is other teams having equally good summers a weakness? If so, that might be the Magic's.
Another perceived weakness, one into which I do not put much stock, is that the Magic's best player (Howard) is not a proven leader, and that all championship teams' best players happen to be leaders: Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and Dwyane Wade hold this distinction. Howard, perhaps due to a recent Sports Illustrated cover story, is not seen as intimidating or particularly serious on the court. But due to Nelson's leadership as co-captain--a duty he shares with Howard--the Magic aren't wanting for guidance. Van Gundy, too, sees himself as a leader.
What are the goals for this team?
The easiest question to answer: it's a championship. No one expected the Magic to be among the last two teams standing last year, especially not after falling into a 2-1 hole to the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round of the playoffs. After their surprising run to the Finals, GM Otis Smith made several aggressive maneuvers (as outlined above) and team ownership signed off to pay the luxury tax.
They did not go through all this trouble to merely win a playoff series or two this year. The obvious, unambiguous goal is to hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy at season's end.
Predicted Record: 63-19.
3 recs |
46 comments
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Comments
Great preview, Ben.
I like the predicted record – I’m thinking a win total in the low 60’s (60-64, to be specific).
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 24, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice read
I like to think of Dwight and Nelly as co-leaders playing the good cop/bad cop role. We should be in for a tremendous season, and with all this depth, we’re in a decent position if someone misses some games.
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 24, 2009 2:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jammer, Meer, Meercat, J-Money, Jameer Nelson
I call him many names when the game is crunch and he’s acting clutch
Get well soon DM
by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 24, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jameericle
I know what Bo dont know.
by D-RAK on Oct 24, 2009 4:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
D-D-D-Damon Stoudemire!
That’s his.
by bandrewg08 on Oct 24, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dwight seems as if he Prides himseld on D more than anything this year.
I might be mistaken but he has Matured regarding his attitude towards Defense…
Keep pumpin, ain't worried bout nuttin
Busters thought we was frontin, so reload and keep dumpin
Keep Sleeping on Orlando...
by BS Patrol on Oct 24, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's all Howard talks about - defense.
Dwight knows that he’s the leader on that side of the floor and as he goes, so go the Magic.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 24, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome write-up
It was well-detailed and fun to read.
Even though the Hippopotamus lacks a stinger for a tail, a truly wise man would rather be sat on by a bee. ~ Banacek
by funny80sguy on Oct 24, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rashard Lewis, between playing more 3 and VC being a bigger threat than Turk, he could have increased offense actually. The only problem is they are so unselfish that the points distribution could keep going to 5-6 players in double figures like the many teams last year. And I think Turk did have an All Star caliber year 2 seasons ago. I personally don’t febate that fact. Pretty much trivial stuff tho, Top 5 efficiencies on both sides of the floor… that’s where they can and will be with a championship in the end :D
by derekk on Oct 24, 2009 4:12 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Wow, it's easy to forget we were down 2-1 in that Philly series
Who would’ve known at that point that we would play in the Finals? Could’ve been down 3-1 if not for Turk’s shot in GM 4. (Thank you, Hedo) Actually, there were like 3 game winners: GM 1 – Iggy, GM 3 – Young, GM 4 – Hedo. What a great series.
Nice article, Ben!
by bandrewg08 on Oct 24, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10.
SCHOENE projects the Magic to finish #1 in offensive efficiency & #5 in defensive efficiency.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 24, 2009 7:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lol
I see magic as #1 defensive efficiency…
"Put it on Film" (not on the glass)
by chiefs_55 on Oct 24, 2009 11:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I don't, I see the Celtics (as long as the team is healthy) with the best defense.
Boston was on track to have the league’s top D last year before Kevin Garnett got hurt.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 24, 2009 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Assuming no injuries to Dwight, I see the Magic as definitely top five, probably top three
The only teams I can seriously see out-defending the Magic are Boston, LA, and San Antonio. I don’t think Cleveland can do it with a pair of immobile pylons at center and Floppy (aka Sideshow Bob) at PF.
If Boston can stay healthy, they’ve put together a team with a lot of solid defenders inside, and adequate outside defense. If Garnett or Perkins go down, I think they’ll have issues.
LA has a big, fast team that’s got good defensive IQ. The Bynum/Gasol/Odom trio is scary on defense. Their weakness is at PG.
For SA, I see Popovich as being similar to van Gundy, in that his mindset is focused on defense, so he gets more out of guys than you’d expect. This season for the Spurs will come down to Timmy’s knees.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 25, 2009 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think in San Antonio's case, they have the personnel to give Duncan proper rest.
Blair will help, as will Antonio McDyess.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 25, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I forgot about Blair
That actually gives the Spurs a decent young big, given that Duncan’s 33, McDyess is 35, and Theo Ratliff is older than Dad.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 26, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DEREK projects Magic to be the 2010 Champions, AKA #1 awesomeness. :D haha
by derekk on Oct 24, 2009 11:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
silly depth is an acceptable description...
Considering this Magic team resembles a team you would make in a video game using cheat codes. I stand firmly by my long standing prediction of 67-15. Especially watching our new acquisitions in the 2 pre-season games I caught. Even when we statistically played badly we still won, too many weapons for most teams.
Thats me chilling with Nick Anderson
by The Magic made Lebron run off the court on Oct 25, 2009 9:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fair look at the Magic.
About the only thing I would add is the Magic don’t really have any experience with the full court press. I think that against most teams they won’t have to bother. But against teams like the big five teams (LA., Boston, Cleveland, San Antonio. Defintely going to have to go the extra mile. Even if it’s just in the last five minutes.
by domprime1 on Oct 25, 2009 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Tyronn Lue employment update
Former NBA guard Tyronn Lue was hired as the Celtics’ director of basketball development
by magicfaninTN on Oct 25, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
oh God we're no match against them now!
I'm a girl.
by TheGiantSquid on Oct 25, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol what.
Third Quarter Collapse: An Orlando Magic blog at SB Nation | Brandon Bass: "I just play hard."
by Ben Q Rock on Oct 25, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congrats to him, hope it works out.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 25, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love it...
the Magic lose their best all-around player, the PG that got them to the Finals, and their best, hell only good perimeter defender and get back the most overrated player of the last 15 years in Vince “I haven’t done anything except win a dunk contest” Carter and Magic fans think they’re top dogs?? All due respect but that’s ridiculous.
You guys are easily better than the Cavs and if it weren’t for the refs the Cavs would be an afterthought. But do you really think you can match up with Boston?? All the Celtics have to do is remove Perkins and put in Sheed and Dwight Howard is virtually useless. He can’t cover anyone more than 5 feet away from the basket and on D, Sheed and KG can contain him good enough to give him fits. Lewis being out for 10 games is going to hurt you only because Bass is a similar player to Howard and Anderson isn’t that good at all. Losing Hedo is big IMO because Carter can’t play D like he did(not saying much I know) and Carter is 4 inches shorter. Also, Carter isn’t the Half-Man Half-Amazing that he once was.
You guys should make the ECF but unless the Celtics are decimated by injuries again, you won’t sniff the FInals again.
by sexyscottish on Oct 26, 2009 1:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yes, but what are your thoughts on yaoi?
I'm a girl.
by TheGiantSquid on Oct 26, 2009 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hedo Turkoglu, as much as I like him, was probably among the most over-rated players last year. In clutch time, he shot 35.7% with a 39.3% eFG. He doesn’t block shots, and he only looked like a good defender because he was good at funneling guys directly at D12. By comparison, Vince Carter shot 50.0% with a 58.7% eFG last year – almost 20 points higher than Turk. Hedo was Mr. Fourth Quarter two seasons ago. Last year? Not so much.
Doing a straight comparison between Carter and Turk (“Carter is 4 inches shorter”) is also foolish. They play different positions. Turk was replaced by Matt Barnes, and Carter is replacing Courtney Lee. Barnes is a slight downgrade from Turk. VC is a major upgrade from Lee (no knock on the rookie, he’s just not on the same level at this point in his career).
Removing Perkins for Sheed would be one of the worst things Boston could do in playing Orlando. Kendrick Perkins is just about the only player in the NBA strong enough to go against Howard in the post. Maybe Wallace and Garnett could defend Howard, but D12’s become a much better passer, so either Boston will give up a ton of open shots or we’ll really get to see how healthy KG’s knees are as he runs from the key to the 3-point line every possession. Dwight Howard’s also a capable man-to-man defender at pretty much any point on the floor – it’s not optimal, since the funnel works better, but since Rasheed Wallace’s jump shot is worse than Adonal Foyle’s, I’d be willing to give up a couple jump shots in exchange for not having Perkins down low.
Also, keep doubting Ryan Anderson. He only outscored OJ Mayo in college and averaged about as many rebounds as Kevin Love.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 26, 2009 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WHAT??
Rasheed’s jumper is worse than Adonal Foyle’s?? For your sake, and credibility, I hope that was a sad attempt at humor. Rasheed Wallace is one of the best shooting big men in the NBA. Anytime you have a 7 footer that is capable of posting up a smaller defender, quick enough to go by a slower big man, and capable enough to knock down open 3’s to spread the defense you have a ridiculous weapon to add to an already potent offense.
And sorry but Ryan Anderson is your version of Brian Scalabrine yet without the high BBIQ. Scal was an awesome college player at USC too, doesn’t mean he’s better than CP3.
by sexyscottish on Oct 26, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jump shots:
Adonal Foyle eFG% 0.500
Rasheed Wallace eFG% 0.488
As for Anderson vs Scalabrine – Anderson now is two years younger than Scalabrine was as a rookie. Anderson has:
played more minutes than any of Scalabrine’s seasons (1312 to 1167)
scored more points per 36 minutes than Scalabrine’s best season (13.4 to 10.7)
outrebounded Scalabrine’s best season on a per36 basis (8.5 to 7.5)
has a better win share than any of Scaly’s seasons (2.5 to 1.7)
Brian Scalabrine would be a regression from what Anderson’s already done. Even in college, Scalabrine was inferior in scoring, rebounding, turnovers, and fouling. With the style the Magic play, Anderson’s an extremely valuable asset who was noted as being an extremely intelligent prospect that needed some seasoning on the defensive end.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 26, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say that Wallace's shot is worse, it's just inefficient.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 26, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice try
but you do know that those percentages are skewed because Rasheed actually shoots more than 4 feet away from the rim right?? Adonal Foyle might actually be one of the worst offensive big men to ever play the game.
As far as Anderson vs Scalabrine. Scalabrine was a bench contributor on a good Nets team that got to 2 NBA Finals and the Celtics team that won the title 2 seasons ago. Anderson has always been on bad teams, therefore has already had more opportunities to play. All those ridiculous stats mean nothing when it comes to the eye test. Any stat can be used to win an argument when the numbers can be skewed in your favor. Gerald green might have better per 48 minutes stats than a lot of guys but I wouldn’t want him to be the main man on any team I coached.
by sexyscottish on Oct 26, 2009 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"has always been on bad teams" in the one NBA season he played?
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
by malars on Oct 26, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you really trying to assert that Scalabrine is a good player? o.O
what the hell kind of topsy turvy world am I living in?
THIS Brian Scalabrine?
I'm a girl.
by TheGiantSquid on Oct 26, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stats mean nothing? Err.
I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.
"The second unit is kind of crazy because the second unit is only white guys." - Marcin Gortat
by erivera7 on Oct 27, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Still think Anderson is at Scals level after last night's performance?
Still think Hedo was a big loss? I know, I know…it’s only one game, but it did answer quite a few questions for the misinformed!
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
by malars on Oct 29, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it game time yet?
I’m dying to see the team play a regular season game!! It’s unfortunate that the first nationally televised games of the season are TNT slurping all over the Cavs, Celts and Lakers tomorrow night, and the handing out of the rings to the Lakers! :`(
NBA Championship or bust in '09-10!!!! GO MAGIC!!!!
by malars on Oct 26, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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