Looking through the numbers, it looks like the biggest factor that works against preseason stats is...

Looking through the numbers, it looks like the biggest factor that works against preseason stats is not the uneven motivation and level of competition but instead the brevity of the schedule. Break down the numbers by category and the effort stats (rebounds, blocks, etc.) carry over closely into the regular season, while shooting percentages--more variable even season to season--have a dramatically lower correlation.

Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus revisits a topic about pre-season stats.

over 2 years ago erivera7 3 comments 0 recs |

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Wow great stuff ER

I didn’t really expect that there would be a ton of correlation from pre-season to the regular season, but I suppose I shouldn’t be shocked. It is the same players playing with just extended roster’s really.

On the other hand, I do think it’s a huge problem with sample size, and pre-season is far too early to make any real conclusions on where a basketball team is going. After a month, i think that’s fair, and 2 months in particular, I think that’s really fair. But after 7 or 8 pre-season games? Get real.

Again, thanks for the link.

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by pookeyguru on Oct 20, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions