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Taking a Quick Look at Pre-Season Data for the Orlando Magic

In yesterday's news post, I posted a link to Basketball-Reference's blog, in which Neil Paine did a "data dump of advanced numbers" for all the pre-season games leading up to yesterday. I wanted to take a closer and lengthier look at the statistics for the Orlando Magic because I felt it was at least worth glancing at. Granted, one has to take precaution in examining the stats because they don't mean much but we, as observers, should look at how the players have performed in exhibition play. 

 

  • As I noted before, the Magic (before facing off against the Chicago Bulls last night) rank #1 in offensive efficiency and #5 in defensive efficiency. What I find interesting is that in Pro Basketball Prospectus 2009-10, SCHOENE projects Orlando to rank #1 in offensive efficiency and #5 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Now again, the pre-season (and the numbers that come with them) means almost nothing but it's an interesting parallel to point out in trying to figure out how good the Magic's offensive and defensive units might be once the games start to count.
  • How well has Ryan Anderson performed, offensively? Well enough to sport an Offensive Rating of 118.7 (which is a very good number) with a usage rate of 23.2% - impressive .
  • Not counting Linton Johnson, who only logged 18 minutes, Orlando has eight players with Offensive Ratings of 115 or higher.
  • There's been a lot of talk about Carter's offensive struggles, and the numbers support the notion - as he has an Offensive Rating of 106.2 with a usage rate of 25.5% - but it would appear that he is starting to find his shooting touch following his last two games on the road.
  • Howard has a usage rate of 28.6%, which is the highest on the Magic. Unfortunately for Howard, he's been very inefficient offensively - Offensive Rating of 94.2 - but don't be alarmed. It is pre-season.
  • Floor% reveals that the team is likely to score a point 62.9% of the time when Brandon Bass uses a possession (23rd-best).
    Floor Percentage = Individual scoring possessions / individual possessions used. Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?" Differences in quality between a player's Floor% and ORtg are frequently due to the 3-point shot.
  • Stop% shows that Dwight Howard has stopped opposing possessions 77.7% of the time (6th-best). Marcin Gortat isn't far behind, at 71.7% (12th-best).
    Stop Percentage = (Stops * Tm MP) / (Tm Poss * MP). The % of opponent individual possessions directly stopped by a player through steals, blocks, forced misses, defensive rebounds, and forced TO.
  • Head coach Stan Van Gundy has done a good job of balancing minutes for all the players, with the exception of Morris Almond, Anthony Johnson, & Linton Johnson.
  • The fact that Johnson has barely seen minutes - when he has, he hasn't done much with them - most likely means that Jason Williams will be Jameer Nelson's back-up.

If you'd like, take a look at the numbers yourself and come up with observations!

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Offense wins championships?

This team is pretty tough to beat offensively. Every piece we added really seems to fit in offensively. Last night was my first chance to see Ryan Anderson and I really liked how he fit in. He is a less athletic copy of Rashard Lewis pretty much.

Brandon Bass even fits in really well despite his inability to hit 3s. That mid-range jumper is deadly and I saw some good things last night when he and Dwight Howard were paired together.

The defense is definitely still a concern at this point of the preseason. They are not staying in front of players and depending entirely too much on Howard to clean everything up. I am hoping that it is just a matter of it being the preseason.

It honestly looked liked they were coasting for most of the evening last night. Looks like a veteran team ready to start playing for real.

Philip,
The Curse of the Big Aristotle
http://bigaristotle.blogspot.com/

by philrsquared on Oct 20, 2009 10:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Yea I agree with that

by derekk on Oct 20, 2009 10:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Ditto.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 20, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I agree

That it looked like we were coasting most of the night. While the offense is getting there, I’m a little fustrated with the shot selection at times, especially from Peaches and JJ. I saw moments of strong defense, but they were simply glimpses. I’m sure the team will take it up a notch once the games count for real.

by bluedlu on Oct 20, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

The shot selection was deplorable, yeah.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 20, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Once again you guys are off the hook!

Believe me your work and dedication to this site is much appreciated.

by telka on Oct 20, 2009 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

No doubt, we appreciate the support.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 20, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Things look good for the Magic. Even if they had a crap preseason, I’d be excited, but this is good.

I think they could end up #1 in defensive efficiency by the time the year’s over, just like they did last year.

by Lu Galasso on Oct 20, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Possibly, but it'll be tough.

I think as long as the Boston Celtics stay healthy, they’ll rank 1st in that category.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 20, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stealthily...

OK guys and gals, have you had about enough of the rankings, projections, etc? Povtak (A former Orlando Sentinel guy) doesn’t want anyone to think he’s a homer for his old team, the Magic. He says we can’t sneak up on anyone and then he ranks us eighth…hmmm. Seems to me we can still be stealthy. As for the way we will play: in football and baseball the defense or pitching has the advantage early-then the offense comes around. In basketball it’s the other way around. Perhaps our offense can carry us till December and then our D will gel. Both barrels loaded…
As for all our fans-just keep it under our hat, a few yes sirs and yes ma’ams. I intend to let the results speak for themselves. Ain’t nothing finer, NO THING better, then hearing a bunch of jeering and dissing, and walking off the court with a W. I remember E. Holyfield seemed to be the underdog every time he stepped into the ring, too small, no power, no chin…Tyson-who talked (or his fans did at least), had to try and bite his ear off cause he couldn’t beat him within the rules.
Admiral Yamamoto told Japan before WWII “Let the sleeping giant lay.” Roosevelt, “Walk softly and carry a big stick.”
Let them talk. The juice of a championship will be all the more sweeter. A maelstrom come June. “How the hell did they…?”
“He who laughs last laughs louder.” Get ready to roll in the streets come next June.
TQC is a great site, better than an Opiate addiction! Peace to the Magic brothers and sisters, from beer (real) and sausage (plentiful) land!!!

by mike in munich on Oct 20, 2009 4:17 PM EDT reply actions  

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