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Orlando Magic News for October 19th: Taking the Over on the Magic's Wins, Wanting Stability in the Starting Lineup, Thinking Highly of Marcin Gortat, and More

Here are today's Orlando Magic links. Please stay tuned to 3QC at 2 PM for a mini-announcement from Eddy.

  • 2009-10 NBA Win Over/Under Predictions

    The authors of TrueHoop Network's excellent The Painted Area blog set over/under figures for win totals each of the league's 30 teams, and strongly advises taking the over on the Magic at 57.5 wins. An excerpt of their justification:

    We love this team to pile up regular-season wins because they have so much depth - they can withstand injuries as well as play big or small as needed. We also think that Stan Van Gundy is one of the best coaches in the league. We thought he deserved Coach of the Year honors for turning last year's unit into the most efficient defensive team in the league. We see a 60+ win team here.

  • Stan Van Gundy wants stability in his starting lineup, despite all the options

    Tania Ganguli of the Orlando Sentinel is in Chicago to cover the Magic's preseason matchup with the Chicago Bulls tonight. This morning, she filed this report about the possibility of Gundy's changing the starting lineup on a game-to-game basis, depending upon the opponent.

    Stan Van Gundy's reply was quick and simple when I asked if he might change starting lineups nightly to accomodate different opponents' playing styles.

    "You wouldn’t like to," Van Gundy said. "I think we can switch up rotations based on situations. You would at least like to get to the point where you’re starting the same five guys pretty much every night."

    It's hard to fault Stan here. The last elite team to operate in such a way, that I can remember, was the 2007 Dallas Mavericks, who famously removed the sluggish center Erick Dampier from the starting lineup in the playoffs against the madcap Golden State Warriors, the 8th-seeded team that went on to upset the top-seeded Mavs in that series. Adjust the rotation? Sure. Adjust the stating five? Not so much, no.

  • Top 10 Prospects

    Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus establishes criteria for an NBA "prospect"--someone with fewer than 3 years' experience, not a former lottery pick, and who averaged fewer than 20 minutes per game last season--and then ranks the top 10. Marcin Gortat, the Magic's backup center, places second.

    Last April, Gortat would have been a perfect candidate for the top spot on this list. Over the next two months, the secret got out because of how well Gortat played when Dwight Howard suffered foul trouble during the postseason. Believe it or not, the Magic actually played substantially better with Gortat at center during its playoff run. That's not sustainable (and wasn't the case during the regular season), but Gortat's skills are legitimate. Alas, after Orlando matched Dallas' offer to Gortat, a restricted free agent, it will take a trade before we get a chance to see what he can do in a larger role.

  • Orlando Magic Season Preview: The Guards

    Howard The Dunk previews the Magic's season by reviewing their guards.

  • It’s only pre-season I tell myself

    Finally, scroll to the 9th paragraph of this story (8th if you don't count the long quote) for Raptors Republic's take on former Magic forward Hedo Turkoglu's play so far in the preseason. The Raps have stumbled out of the gate to a 2-5 start, but Turk's been a rare bright spot, it seems.

  • Your Obligatory Preseason Data Dump

    UPDATE (from Eddy): Neil Paine of Basketball-References shares advanced numbers for the pre-season games, so far. To which I say, finally!

    As Ben mentioned earlier today, we have to take these stats with a grain of salt but it doesn't hurt looking at them to get an idea of how the Orlando Magic are performing on the court in exhibition play. Some random musings - the Magic rank 1st in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency.
  • Beasts of the East growing in number

    UPDATE 2 (from Eddy): Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports takes a look at how the Eastern Conference has steadily improved the past few years.
  • Scouts like Lakers, Cavaliers, Celtics in 2009-2010 season

    UPDATE 3 (from Eddy): Ian Thomsen of Sports Illustrated polls a half-dozen NBA advance and personnel scouts to gather their thoughts on how the 2009-2010 season may pan out. If you haven't noticed already, there's a schism with regards to the perception of how good people think Orlando is - general managers and scouts think the Magic are a step behind of the competition, APBRmetricians think the Magic are a step ahead of the competition.
    The East promises to be the more entertaining conference, beginning with the fight between Boston and Cleveland for the top seed. The Cavaliers receive four votes to finish No. 1, but two other scouts -- anticipating that Shaquille O'Neal will have a negative impact -- pick them No. 3 or No. 4 in the conference.

    Despite reaching the NBA Finals last season, the Magic receive no first-place votes and are viewed as the consensus No. 3 team.

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The post from The Painted Area

was an amazingly interesting and fun read.

by fwedo on Oct 19, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Great read, absolutely.

M. Haubs is an excellent writer.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I love Turk love em

But I’ve watched the Raptors preseason games and I see the old Magic out there, everyone puts the ball on the floor instead of catch & shoot, Turk would rather shoot a contested shot than an open one, seeing him on another team shows how much of our offense ran through him and all the things I didn’t like about it, effective at times but sloppy. So glad we have VC now. I think the Raptors are in for a long season unless they Magicly learn 2 D up.

I know what Bo dont know.

by D-RAK on Oct 19, 2009 2:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

You have to give it some time tho, they had the biggest roster changeover in the league I think. The pieces are talented, I think they will need to stay patient and focused before it starts looking playoff contender good. Hedo is no VC, but Im excited for what he will bring to the Raps.

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 3:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Toronto is going to be in for a rude awakening this year.

Unless the Raptors improve their defense, I have a hard time seeming ’em win more than 30 games.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think they will lead the league in turnovers

I know what Bo dont know.

by D-RAK on Oct 19, 2009 4:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Pretty much everything from Basketball Prospectus, Painted Area, and the other few real advanced stats and analysis sites have always been very good reads.

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 3:21 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Yup. They cut through the red tape and give the nitty-gritty.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I still don’t see any rhyme or reason in trading Gortat at all. The playoffs reminded me that not only are big men more important, but our Dwight still has a relatively high foul rate (some of the calls are bad too) so he needs a good backup C which Gortat does exceedingly well.

A trade should be forced by severe financial troubles which I don’t see coming anytime soon with our core and front office OR a trade that maximizes the talent level incoming as well which I don’t see necessary with our depth. (Low chances but maybe part of a larger package deal for a star wanting a trade to Orlando?)

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 3:38 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Marcin will be around this season but I'd be shocked if he was with the Magic long-term.

It has everything to do with finances. Orlando can’t pay the tax forever.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

do you think marcin will be here next year if we get a championship this year or not.

or is it to early to call.we still dont know what offers will come in dec. and beyond. i believe he will be traded over the next summer if we have no injurys . what do you think he will bring as far as picks or will we demand some player back too.

by magicman775 on Oct 19, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, I don't think Marcin will be around next year.

However, if the Magic do win a title this year, maybe.

It’s tough to predict what the trade market is for Gortat but clearly there are a number of teams that value him. To be honest, I have no clue what type of offers Otis would receive in a trade.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does anyone know how much Morey offered him? If it was the full MLE is Yao in the long term plans? If he’s too expencive to be Howards backup then he’s too expencive to be Yao’s, I can think of a few trades with Huston that would be sweet, but this team is going to be so good I don’t see Otis messin with it, he’ll most likely turn him into some draft pics.

I know what Bo dont know.

by D-RAK on Oct 19, 2009 4:49 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

It wasn't the full MLE.

Dallas offered Gortat the full MLE, that’s why he signed the offer sheet with them instead of Houston.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

It wasn't the full MLE.

Dallas offered Gortat the full MLE, that’s why he signed the offer sheet with them instead of Houston.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

So one of those 6 scouts does not like the Magic’s defense. He says that he doesn’t care for the stats bc as the playoffs progress the Lakers Cavs Celtics are the best.. The other can’t tell yet.. Your a scout btw, should atleast make your best guess, which he kind of does by contradicting himself saying the Magic made a push at best with the offseason moves.. Haha. They’re scouts so they obviously know their stuff but their explanations were horrible meaning they didn’t care to explain well or they didn’t spend much time doing their work on the Magic.

by derekk on Oct 19, 2009 7:04 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Yeah, their rationales were questionable.

I'm the other guy at Third Quarter Collapse, with a Twitter account.

"Never hate your enemies. It affects your judgement." - Michael Corleone

by erivera7 on Oct 19, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

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